Draft Round 1 #23: New York Rangers Select RW Gabriel Perreault (Boston College, NCAA)

[SnowblindNYR]

the Adam Fox of wingers

Not saying this will ever be Perrault but if someone becomes the Adam Fox of wingers he will be a perennial 100+ point player pushing for the Art Ross.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Not saying this will ever be Perrault but if someone becomes the Adam Fox of wingers he will be a perennial 100+ point player pushing for the Art Ross.

He is him

 

[Synergy27]

I get "passenger" concerns in general when a prospect gets to play a lot of time with ubertalented teammates. But IMO it goes back to the same question of not making too optimistic projections too early. But it has little to do with the decision of where to play. If anything, using Gropp as a reference - we objectively learned about his true level only when he moved and couldn't keep up in the AHL. In GP case leaving college after two years would seem pretty par for the course for someone in his position.

Again. The “passenger” logically cannot have MORE POINTS than the driver(s). It just doesn’t work that way.

It is logically valid to project Smith and Leonard to have better NHL careers, but you cannot logically look back at last season and proclaim that the guy who scored the most points was the passenger.

Here is a passenger:

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Again. The “passenger” logically cannot have MORE POINTS than the driver(s). It just doesn’t work that way.

It is logically valid to project Smith and Leonard to have better NHL careers, but you cannot logically look back at last season and proclaim that the guy who scored the most points was the passenger.

Here is a passenger:

View attachment 765227

Whatever happened to Hodgson? Matt Duchene is the only player here who had a career.

 

[NYR Viper]

Again. The “passenger” logically cannot have MORE POINTS than the driver(s). It just doesn’t work that way.

It is logically valid to project Smith and Leonard to have better NHL careers, but you cannot logically look back at last season and proclaim that the guy who scored the most points was the passenger.

Here is a passenger:

View attachment 765227

Seeing this again hurts my heart. I was a big Grachev fan

 

[nyr2k2]

Not sure I understand the shitting on projections thing. I think it's a fun exercise, predicting what someone will become based on what they are now. I mean this entire community was built around a site that projected what players would become, with a f***ing number/letter scale system no less. And I'm otherwise ignoring that at the very core of drafting is a team projecting what a player will be capable of based on his skillset and projectability--what he can become in the future based on that current skill set and with proper development.

Some people get a little carried away with it, sure, but otherwise I'm not really getting the complaints.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I fail to see the comparisons between Karl Henriksson, Ryan Gropp and Gabe Perreault.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Even from a situational standpoint it doesn't work.

Gropp didn't lead his team in scoring. Henriksson literally played with those for what? <30 games across international competition?

Its not even close to a 1 to 1 and while I get the overarching concern (I don't agree with it but I get it), they're terrible comps.

I'll give you one that is way better and actually quasi-relevant.

Tkachuk-Dvorak-Marner. Dvorak lead that London Knights team in RS scoring and while he's carved out a NHL career, he hasn't come close to the career those guys have had. He was a 2nd round pick while the other 2 were both top 5 picks in their draft years.

I don't think it'll play out that way and Marner is actually... not a bad comp for our own Perreault.

 

[Levitate]

my dude you need to come up with more than just vague hand waving stuff if you want to have the discussion.

 

[bhamill]

Because they have played together at every level. It's very reminiscent of Ryan Gropp and Karl Henriksson (This is not a player comparison, before some idiot misinterprets this as usual). Gropp played with Barzal in Seattle and Henriksson was always playing with Raymond and Holtz for Sweden u20. Othmann playing with Shane Wright a lot when he was younger, raised similar questions.

How much of Perreault's game is elevated by playing with Smith and Leonard? I'm not saying he sucks without them. Just that if I have to name a concern, that's the one. We simply don't know how he does away from them.

Perreault is a good prospect, with upside. But I think the question marks around his game are justified. There are some weaknesses, otherwise he would have been a top-5 pick like Smith, but it's up to him to iron those out. His compete level, similar to Othmann and Cuylle, is whats stands out and can make up for a lot.

I just want to see how he does with other players on his line. He's off to a great start. Let's hope he can keep this up.

You can say the same about Smith and Leonard then though. How much of Smith's game is elevated by playing with Gabe and Leonard? How much of Leonard’s game is elevated by playing with Smith and GP?
I do think it’s hard to argue that a guy outscored both of the players whose coattails he was riding...
This is not to say he‘s a guaranteed star or anything, just that he’s not a passenger. Also he has played with other players at Boston, Gauthier for one, … and has still looked great.

The ugly stride is probably what kept him out of the top 10.

I’ve said the same.

 

[GENESISPuck94]

I agree in the not rushing him thing. Take the Kreider route. BC has a shot at winning one or more championships. He has a couple WJC to play in that span. All good things for his development. In 2-3 years we don't know what the Rangers roster will look like, at that time there could be a spot in the top 6 for him.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Man, the hopes for Grachev we all had. Such a tease

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I agree in the not rushing him thing. Take the Kreider route. BC has a shot at winning one or more championships. He has a couple WJC to play in that span. All good things for his development. In 2-3 years we don't know what the Rangers roster will look like, at that time there could be a spot in the top 6 for him.

Unless he really pops off in his sophomore year, there's no reason he should turn pro at age 20.

Kreider was probably more NHL ready at age 20 than Perreault will be (definitely when it comes to his physical strength) and him spending his junior year in college helped tremendously.

Ultimately, it all depends on what the team's need is as well, but with Panarin, Kreider, Othmann, Cuylle, Lafrenière and Kakko likely all still here in 2025, I think going back for a junior year is at this point the most likely.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Unless he really pops off in his sophomore year, there's no reason he should turn pro at age 20.

Kreider was probably more NHL ready at age 20 than Perreault will be (definitely when it comes to his physical strength) and him spending his junior year in college helped tremendously.

Ultimately, it all depends on what the team's need is as well, but with Panarin, Kreider, Othmann, Cuylle, Lafrenière and Kakko likely all still here in 2025, I think going back for a junior year is at this point the most likely.

This isn't relevant because their hurdles are different. Kreider had a close to NHL ready body out of high school (6'3" 195 at the combine - actually lost a few lbs because the combine was at the end of Lacrosse season.) His game was raw as hell.

Gabe is the opposite where the game is close to NHL ready but the body needs to catch up. An actual comparable would be Stepan who went into college at 6 ft and around 170. The game was there but the body wasn't. He turned pro after his Sophomore season.

Plus not only do we not know what his body is going to look like in the Spring of 2025, we don't know what the roster is going to look like either. Theres a pretty good chance that not all of those wingers will be here by then (or perhaps one is moved out in order to make room.) But lets say that they do stick around and he's grown and ripped up the NCAA after his sophomore season, theres NO reason to send him back. The AHL isn't some voodoo league. Theres no reason they can't stash him there to get his pro career started and basically be the first man on deck to be recalled in case of injuries (they happen.)

Also Kreider returned for his junior year because he wanted to be able to position himself to graduate ASAP. Getting his degree was important to him. Not just lip service either, he ended up knocking off what ever remaining units he had along the way and graduated a few years after turning pro. The Rangers tried to sign him after his Sophomore season (IIRC, they wanted to sign him after his freshman season - for what ever reason they really didn't love that he went to BC but I'd imagine that had more to do with the lack of reps in college vs the CHL or AHL.) His decision didn't really have anything to do with his game.

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“I just wanted to come back and get my degree,” Kreider said in a phone interview. “I know there’s life after hockey. I feel like I’m in a much better position to get my degree coming back for my junior year than if I had left after my sophomore year. It was an academic decision more than a hockey decision.”

 

[Kodiak]

Even from a situational standpoint it doesn't work.

Gropp didn't lead his team in scoring. Henriksson literally played with those for what? <30 games across international competition?

Its not even close to a 1 to 1 and while I get the overarching concern (I don't agree with it but I get it), they're terrible comps.

I'll give you one that is way better and actually quasi-relevant.

Tkachuk-Dvorak-Marner. Dvorak lead that London Knights team in RS scoring and while he's carved out a NHL career, he hasn't come close to the career those guys have had. He was a 2nd round pick while the other 2 were both top 5 picks in their draft years.

I don't think it'll play out that way and Marner is actually... not a bad comp for our own Perreault.

You also have to factor in age at this point in a player's development. Being a year or two more physically developed can have an impact on current performance that won't necessarily translate long-term. In that season, Dvorak was 19 while Marner was 18 and Tkachuk was 17. The older Dvorak could have been the best of the three in that season, but we all know how it turned out long-term.

So that's also not the best comparison because Perreault, Smith, and Leonard are all the same age and Perreault is the least physically developed of the three.

 

[duhmetreE]

So that's also not the best comparison because Perreault, Smith, and Leonard are all the same age and Perreault is the least physically developed of the three.

IMO that is the issue. He was no where close to physically developed and he wasn't a 'PLUS skater' to counter it.

imo it's hard to properly project/quantify skill with cerebral players.

 

[GENESISPuck94]

Unless he really pops off in his sophomore year, there's no reason he should turn pro at age 20.

Kreider was probably more NHL ready at age 20 than Perreault will be (definitely when it comes to his physical strength) and him spending his junior year in college helped tremendously.

Ultimately, it all depends on what the team's need is as well, but with Panarin, Kreider, Othmann, Cuylle, Lafrenière and Kakko likely all still here in 2025, I think going back for a junior year is at this point the most likely.

Yea I'd have no issue with that at all. I think it's a smart move.

 

[NYR Viper]

If Perrault scores at a ppg pace for his Freshman season and then follows that up with yet another ppg+ season in his sophomore season, there is NO CHANCE he stays for a Junior season. None.

 

[Kravtsov420]

I think hockey IQ always holds up in the end, and that’s why I’m fairly comfortable with him not being a passenger on that line. If his standout skill was speed or being big, then there’s more of a concern with the ceiling.

Worst I see him is Derek stepan. And I think he has way more of a toolbox to work with than stepan ever had while having a high IQ.

 

[kovazub94]

Some people get a little carried away with it, sure, but otherwise I'm not really getting the complaints.

Yeah we’re discussing the “carried away” aspect - in response to the blank statement that Perreault is a better prospect than both Lafreniere and Kakko were.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

You also have to factor in age at this point in a player's development. Being a year or two more physically developed can have an impact on current performance that won't necessarily translate long-term. In that season, Dvorak was 19 while Marner was 18 and Tkachuk was 17. The older Dvorak could have been the best of the three in that season, but we all know how it turned out long-term.

So that's also not the best comparison because Perreault, Smith, and Leonard are all the same age and Perreault is the least physically developed of the three.

I agree with this.

It's just a better comp for situation than what Henriksson or Gropp were in. There really is no 1 to 1 situation that exists outside of perhaps Caufield-Hughes-Boldy that someone brought up a few pages ago where they all have ended up being good players (and even then, not really because neither Caufield or Boldy led their team in scoring.)

The truth his that none of those comps really matter. My main issue with what @Amazing Kreiderman has been saying in here is trying to outline why Perreault needs 3 years (before he's even a quarter way into year 1) and then grasping at straws or straight up throwing irrelevant things out there as to why thats the case.

I'm not even saying that he WON'T need the 3rd year, but it's a wasted exercise to try to paint him in that corner when there are so many unknown variables and history would dictate against it.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If Perrault scores at a ppg pace for his Freshman season and then follows that up with yet another ppg+ season in his sophomore season, there is NO CHANCE he stays for a Junior season. None.

Yes, that I would consider a performance dominant enough to go pro after 2 years. But we're 10 games into his freshman year.

My main issue with what @Amazing Kreiderman has been saying in here is trying to outline why Perreault needs 3 years (before he's even a quarter way into year 1) and then grasping at straws or straight up throwing irrelevant things out there as to why thats the case.

That was mostly me responding to fans labeling him a future star already. It's too soon to use those words yet.

Regarding him making the team, I would love for him to force himself onto the roster at age 20 like Stepan did, but historically, it's very rare for a non-top10 pick to turn pro after his sophomore year. Stepan was very much an exception, by no means the rule.

 

[UnSandvich]

From a physical development status, iirc the Black Book had him at 165ish on draft day, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 5’10”-11”. His father (per hockey-reference) played at 5’11”, 185lbs, and his brother is at 6’0, 190lbs.

So bloodlines would suggest he’s got room on his frame for at least another 15-20lbs. I don’t think we should be pencilling him into the lineup until he’s matured a bit more physically

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yes, that I would consider a performance dominant enough to go pro after 2 years. But we're 10 games into his freshman year.



That was mostly me responding to fans labeling him a future star already. It's too soon to use those words yet.

Regarding him making the team, I would love for him to force himself onto the roster at age 20 like Stepan did, but historically, it's very rare for a non-top10 pick to turn pro after his sophomore year. Stepan was very much an exception, by no means the rule.

100%. I've been pretty adamant that the things that were issues on draft day are still issues now. Theres time for them to be corrected but the fact is that they NEED to happen.

But I don't think we need to diminish what he's done so far or reach to make comparisons that don't really fit either. Theres a ton of time between now and Spring 2025 for him to be able to make the necessary growth (it wont happen by the end of this season.)

It's not that rare for non top 10 picks who have followed a similar path to make that jump though.



NTDP non top 10 picks who went pro after a year in the NCAA/CHL
Larkin
Roslovic
Milano
Connor
C.Fischer
McAvoy
Wahlstrom (Not even 1, this was dumb.)
Farabee

After 2
Tuch
C.White
Boeser
Thompson
Kunin
Frederic
K.Miller
Bellows
Norris
Boldy
Caufield
Brisson
Samoskevich

Italicized the guys who have yet to play in the NHL. I'm sure I missed a few and tried to keep it to round 1 or early round 2.

The only NTDP kid who went to college and turned pro after 1 season from 2022 was Cooley who obviously was top 10, the rest of them went back for a second season and most of them are going to turn pro after their sophomore seasons. Now there are varying degrees of success here and some guys made the jump too soon (Roslovic, Milano and Wahlstrom for sure)

It's actually more rare for these kids to stay for a third year. The ones who do are usually later picks (rounds 3-7.)

From a physical development status, iirc the Black Book had him at 165ish on draft day, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 5’10”-11”. His father (per hockey-reference) played at 5’11”, 185lbs, and his brother is at 6’0, 190lbs.

So bloodlines would suggest he’s got room on his frame for at least another 15-20lbs. I don’t think we should be pencilling him into the lineup until he’s matured a bit more physically

He measured in at the combine at 5'10.75" and 163 lbs. These are a few months old so it's possible that he grew a bit and got a bit heavier but they're the only official measurements out there. I'd wager they're pretty close to accurate.

He may be built more like mom so the genetics thing doesn't always play out that way. I don't know what Jacob measured in at pre draft as there was no combine that year.

 

[Levitate]

Man, the hopes for Grachev we all had. Such a tease

Grachev did have some tools...he was big, he was a pretty quick in a straight line skater, and he had a good wrist shot as I recall. He just didn't really put it together or end up developing much else.

If Perrault scores at a ppg pace for his Freshman season and then follows that up with yet another ppg+ season in his sophomore season, there is NO CHANCE he stays for a Junior season. None.

Yeah probably not, unless BC just loses in the championship game or something and he wants to go back for another chance to win it.

I seem to remember with Kreider everyone was shitting on him and saying he was going to stay in school and sign with Boston. People weren't happy that he stayed for a junior season, hah.

Anyways, from all indications we've also heard that Perreault is a hard worker and keen on developing the parts of his game that are lacking as well as addressing his physical deficiencies. College is probably pretty handy for this as well since he doesn't end up with such a huge schedule he can't continue working in the weight room