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Prospect Info: Round 1, 22nd overall: Oliver Bonk, RHD, London (OHL)

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Lindberg said:
Did you not read portions of this thread? You're the one who quoted me.
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exactly... you came in and said that Bob rated Bonk at 15 while Perrault (kid some fans felt could have been a better choice) was rated by mckenzie at 10.. kind of makes your point ridiculous?

this reminds me of coversation about drafting Jay O'Brien (who? Exactly!) vs K'Andre Miller with chief executive scout Magua lol.
 
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tictactoe said:
exactly... you came in and said that Bob rated Bonk at 15 while Perrault (kid some fans felt could have been a better choice) was rated by mckenzie at 10.. kind of makes your point ridiculous?

this reminds me of coversation about drafting Jay O'Brien (who? Exactly!) vs K'Andre Miller with chief executive scout Magua lol.
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The position of Perrault was and is irrelevant.

I was using a scouting report to debunk that some people said he was a complete reach for being #22.
 
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I think 5-10 years ago you could argue a player like Perrault fell b/c of size, but in today's NHL, see Benson, that argument holds less water.
So when a player falls like that, there is some flaw that made teams nervous, maybe his frame suggests he won't get much stronger, and that includes adding low body power to improve his skating. Who knows - but it was enough to have him fall 10 spots below Benson.

Bonk on the other hand, is listed at 6'2 176. That makes him a big projection pick, because his future may depend on how he fills out - does he end up 6'3 210 with a stronger stride due to increased lower body strength? Or 6'2 200 with average strength and little increased speed.
 
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deadhead said:
I think 5-10 years ago you could argue a player like Perrault fell b/c of size, but in today's NHL, see Benson, that argument holds less water.
So when a player falls like that, there is some flaw that made teams nervous, maybe his frame suggests he won't get much stronger, and that includes adding low body power to improve his skating. Who knows - but it was enough to have him fall 10 spots below Benson.

Bonk on the other hand, is listed at 6'2 176. That makes him a big projection pick, because his future may depend on how he fills out - does he end up 6'3 210 with a stronger stride due to increased lower body strength? Or 6'2 200 with average strength and little increased speed.
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Teams often let players fall for goofy and stupid reasons. See TK, or Michkov.
 
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i-have-a-theory-hypothesis.gif

"When a player likes Perrault falls it is because the infallible omniscience of NHL GMs proves he should because he isn't very good."



"YES MICHKOV FELL1 OMG THOSE DUM-DUM GMS NO NOTHING WE GOT STEAL1!1!"
200w.gif



Edit: Yes, like Beef said and I missed.
 
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Not a fan, and IMO I don't think Coby or Braun is bad value, for where the pick was. But there were better options. What really annoys me, is that we didn't get another 1st this year. Maybe if we get 25 for Scoot they might have been more inclined to take a bigger swing at 22. But count me on the side of taking as many big swings as possible, especially in the first two rounds. There is literally nothing to lose at this point. This stage is exactly when you do that. Whiff? Oh well. You're not contending anytime soon. Go big or go home
 
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Bonk may be the true upside pick v most of the alternatives.
Because he's currently seriously undersized, there's more growth potential physically, and that could have a significant impact on his future value..
He's not had a chance to play a primary role on offense, so that's another avenue to improve.
But you're gambling on projection.

Perrault for example, is more of a known quantity.
 
Lindberg said:
Isn't one of the things that Bonk is known for is his hockey IQ? Arguably the hardest thing to improve in a player.
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I don't think he's Adam Ginning or anything, but I think people are clinging onto one trait in vague scouting reports, that really isn't quantifiable, and running with it. There's a scouting report in this thread that says he has average "hockey IQ" also.

Even if he does have transcendent Hockey IQ, if you don't have the tools or raw skills to leverage those smarts, it really doesn't matter much. Ivan Provorov was classified as having generational hockey sense (laughable in retrospect) and he did have actual tools and we saw how that played out. Mind you the guy taken with the very next pick was both the highest rated consensus skater and generally regarded as one of the smartest players in the class and actually leveraged that into being one of the best (statistically) play connecters and passers in the draft.

I also think as a general philosophy, if you are drafting a player in the first round that you don't project to play on the PP at the next level, your margin for error is so slim. And that's on draft day. A lot has to go right to meet even the modest projections laid out here. Elite prospects drops a Jake McCabe comp. That would be a good outcome. I don't know how many would agree with that, but I'd consider that a good outcome for this player, and yet McCabe is pretty much available every year. Is that really the bar you're looking for at 22 for a system that needs pretty much everything?

edit: I used a consensus of 90 rankings and he was 35th fwiw.
 
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Drafting Bonk with Gulyayev on the board was a head-scratcher, considering Gulyayev has been compared to a Quinn Hughes type and Bonk has drawn comparisons to Jake McCabe and John Marino.

Gulyayev needs to be reined in a bit more but his skill level is significantly higher and more dynamic than Bonk. Bonk is as safe as you get -- a player who won't bust but will likely be a steady number 4 defenseman who doesn't hurt you.

The Flyers, after drafting Michkov, should have kept swinging for the fences. Sakic and his crew who have been excellent at drafting, especially defensemen, jumped on Gulyayev right away.

This also doesn't consider passing on Perreault, who was phenomenal value at 22. The Flyers should be collecting high-end assets right now, not drafting for need, as they're likely 3-4 years away and need everything.

Some of these players will be used as trade chips down the line to acquire stars -- the more blue chips you have in the cupboard the better. After Michkov, most of the remaining Flyers draft was confusing and seemed very old hat Flyers.

Drafting goalies in 2nd and 3rd rounds when you have Ersson, Fedotov, and Kolosov in the system is a bit much imho, even if Briere trades Hart, which isn't a certainty. And Mike Knuble's son? Really? Shades of drafting Luukko's kid to do him a solid.

All of that said, stealing Michkov at 7 was a massive win for the Flyers. But imagine snagging a Gulyayev and seeing him develop the way of Zellweger and Mintyukov after you've drafted Michkov -- wow.
 
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FLYguy3911 said:
I don't think he's Adam Ginning or anything, but I think people are clinging onto one trait in vague scouting reports, that really isn't quantifiable, and running with it. There's a scouting report in this thread that says he has average "hockey IQ" also.

Even if he does have transcendent Hockey IQ, if you don't have the tools or raw skills to leverage those smarts, it really doesn't matter much. Ivan Provorov was classified as having generational hockey sense (laughable in retrospect) and he did have actual tools and we saw how that played out. Mind you the guy taken with the very next pick was both the highest rated consensus skater and generally regarded as one of the smartest players in the class and actually leveraged that into being one of the best (statistically) play connecters and passers in the draft.

I also think as a general philosophy, if you are drafting a player in the first round that you don't project to play on the PP at the next level, your margin for error is so slim. And that's on draft day. A lot has to go right to meet even the modest projections laid out here. Elite prospects drops a Jake McCabe comp. That would be a good outcome. I don't know how many would agree with that, but I'd consider that a good outcome for this player, and yet McCabe is pretty much available every year. Is that really the bar you're looking for at 22 for a system that needs pretty much everything?

edit: I used a consensus of 90 rankings and he was 35th fwiw.
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I'm not one to say it's the right pick or not and nor is it fair to come back in this thread if he turns into a #2 defender and say "look who was right". Not that I need to tell you that gauging the talent of 18 year olds isn't easy.

Provorov never did anything flashy and that's probably the biggest thing that stuck out to me besides JJ/Jonesy/Clement down playing his mistakes and blaming Gostisbehere for everything. In hindsight it's still not the worst pick. The Flyers got a ton of mileage out of him and he's a pretty solid defender paired with the right partner. Werenski was the right pick but there were tons of posts for years saying "we got our true #1".

I agree with your philosophy since it makes sense, offensive talent is hard to come by. I'm not going to say it's the right idea but maybe since the Flyers got Michkov they viewed getting a top 4 defender (if people think it's a shoe in with possible room for growth) to be a success.

This forum has gotten so negative over the years that people just want to blast the Flyers for anything they do. I get they've screwed up a lot of things along the way and people are unhappy about the pick. I just initially came in to point out that there's a few scouting reports that were more or less aligned where he was drafted (maybe a few spots too high). I don't have enough time in the day to know prospects and I wouldn't expect anyone else to either who isn't getting paid to watch major junior players.
 
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The issue is that the flyers are drafting for safety and fit when they are in no position to do so. Odds are 99.9% against this kid being a #1 defenseman based on his upside potential. That percentage can be improved a little by taking guys with the actual potential to reach those heights.

That's why you need to volume draft high upside players when you are rebuilding. You need all of the right top of the lineup pieces at the same time, and all on the right timeline contact wise to compete. The Flyers are too stupid to do that and it's looking likely we'll end up with a mish mash team around michkov when he's ready to go
 
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It’s a fine pick. Nothing wrong with getting a Braun type. Every cup winning team has players like him eating minutes. In a redo of his draft, Braun goes first round. He’d go first round in a lot of better drafts too.
 
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The thing is the players people are hoping he becomes were all mid-to-late picks: Braun, Pesce, etc. Because it's really hard to project true impactful defenders.

Lindberg said:
Trim.
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Lindberg said:
This forum has gotten so negative over the years that people just want to blast the Flyers for anything they do. I get they've screwed up a lot of things along the way and people are unhappy about the pick. I just initially came in to point out that there's a few scouting reports that were more or less aligned where he was drafted (maybe a few spots too high). I don't have enough time in the day to know prospects and I wouldn't expect anyone else to either who isn't getting paid to watch major junior players.
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Ftr, I said this back in December:

FLYguy3911 said:
He's probably going to go higher than I'd feel comfortable pulling the trigger but I can see the intrigue.
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