Roster thread: Get To Work (2022-2023 Season)

[Dubi Doo]

(On a very special episode of Beyond Blue and Gold)

"Ahem...Kevyn? It says here on The Internet that the fans want to see your balls"

And they better be big!

 

[Jim Bob]

Ehh... There's no way that Power is worth ~100k AAV less long term than Dahlin. Even if he hits his ceiling.

I'd assume that Dahlin is worth 10+ AAV long term at this point. Power is harder to judge but it's probably closer to 7-8.

There are only two D in the entire league making $10M AAV or more next season:

Karlsson & Doughty

And they signed their deals before the pandemic fueled flat cap years.

I would be surprised if Dahlin hits $10M.

And I wasn't saying it would exactly be like Cozens and Thompson, but I could see Power coming in at $500k or so less than Dahlin if Dahlin gives the Sabres a team friendly number more around what Sergachev and Heiskanen got than trying to squeeze the Sabres for every last penny.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Mitts was late-season found money filling in at the 1C spot, he really rose to that occasion well. I was a long time Olofsson supporter and defender but even I can see now that he's hurting the team and holding guys back. It's time to cut bait and get Casey a supporting cast on his line.

Or... You play him on one of the top two lines.

Have Krebs centre the 'third' line.

Then get a good defensive specialist / PK / faceoff guy for a true shut down line.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

There are only two D in the entire league making $10M AAV or more next season:

Karlsson & Doughty

And they signed their deals before the pandemic fueled flat cap years.

I would be surprised if Dahlin hits $10M.

And I wasn't saying it would exactly be like Cozens and Thompson, but I could see Power coming in at $500k or so less than Dahlin if Dahlin gives the Sabres a team friendly number more around what Sergachev and Heiskanen got than trying to squeeze the Sabres for every last penny.

I was/am constantly told that there was no way Dahlin would sign a similar extension to Heiskanen after he faltered under Krueger - which is why Adams had no choice but to bridge him.

Now he's truly broken out into a perennial Norris candidate & the team's clear cut best player.

He's getting paid. The so called 'flat cap' didn't stop Nate McKinnon getting paid...

Power is a great prospect with tons of potential. But he is not in the same galaxy as Dahlin.

 

[Jim Bob]

I was/am constantly told that there was no way Dahlin would sign a similar extension to Heiskanen after he faltered under Krueger - which is why Adams had no choice but to bridge him.

Now he's truly broken out into a perennial Norris candidate & the team's clear cut best player.

He's getting paid. The so called 'flat cap' didn't stop Nate McKinnon getting paid...

Power is a great prospect with tons of potential. But he is not in the same galaxy as Dahlin.

Perennial Norris candidate is a bit much since he's never finished top 15 in Norris voting.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Perennial Norris candidate is a bit much since he's never finished top 15 in Norris voting.

Oh come on... Really ?

How do you look at his form this season at 23 yo then make that post?

Hint. He'll finish top 15 in Norris voting this year. Easily. So unless you think he's going to regress in his 24 yo season... He's a perennial Norris candidate.

 

[Jim Bob]

Oh come on... Really ?

How do you look at his form this season at 23 yo then make that post?

Hint. He'll finish top 15 in Norris voting this year. Easily. So unless you think he's going to regress in his 24 yo season... He's a perennial Norris candidate.

He is a potential perennial Norris candidate or a Norris candidate for this season since this is the first time that he will be a Norris candidate.

You wouldn't call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate before he's ever cracked the top 15 once, right?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

He is a potential perennial Norris candidate or a Norris candidate for this season since this is the first time that he will be a Norris candidate.

You wouldn't call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate before he's ever cracked the top 15 once, right?

I'd call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate if he put together a legitimate Vezina calibre season at 23 yo...

...but Levi has played just six professional hockey games & is playing nowhere close to Vezina winning standard. He's way closer to Power than Dahlin if you want to make that comparison.

At this point i don't know why you are arguing about this - outside of trying to convince yourself Dahlin is going to sign some super cheap long tern extension for far less than he's worth.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'd call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate if he put together a legitimate Vezina calibre season at 23 yo...

...but Levi has played just six professional hockey games & is playing nowhere close to Vezina winning standard. He's way closer to Power than Dahlin if you want to make that comparison.

At this point i don't know why you are arguing about this - outside of trying to convince yourself Dahlin is going to sign some super cheap long tern extension for far less than he's worth.

When did I say he would sign for a super cheap contract?

All I said was that I didn't think that he would break the $10M AAV mark and become the 3rd highest paid D in the entire league. And there is a chance that he does take a bit of a team friendly deal.

Is making around what Cale Makar signed for far less than he's worth? I wouldn't think so.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

When did I say he would sign for a super cheap contract?

All I said was that there is a chance that he doesn't break the $10M AAV mark and become the 3rd highest paid D in the entire league.

Is making around what Cale Makar signed for far less than he's worth? I wouldn't think so.

You suggested Power was worth close to what Dahlin is long term & seemed outraged when i suggested Dahlin was worth upwards of 10m AAV.

Makar is as fair a comp as anyone in the league IMO:

- Makar's 6 year extension kicked in 2021/22 and takes him up to 2027 (UFA age 28)

- Dahlin's 8 year extension would kick in 2024/25 and would take him up to 2032 (UFA age 32)

So Dahlin's deal would be:

- his third contract compared to Makar's second

- effective three years later than Makar during a higher salary cap

- be two years longer than Makar

- buy four extra UFA years than Makar

There's no reason to believe Dahlin will sign for a similar AAV to Makar. It will be higher.

Meanwhile - Power has not come close to accomplishing what either Dahlin/Makar have done.

 

[Bendium]

Off the market -

Very good 40 pt center at 5 yr at 2.1 AAV. Wanting to give a 50 pt 3rd line winger like Mitts an 8x 4.5-5 is an insane idea.

Generally agreed with all of this - particularly your point about Weegar (or any other guy we acquire in that role). I might dangle Rosen or even Ostlund instead of the R1 pick - but I'd happily make your proposal if that's what it took.

I think Mitts gets an extension in that same 7m AAV range as TT/Cozens if he carries on playing close to PPG though. So factor that in to what you give to UFAs short term & your core guys long term.

I'm confident they could make all of this work though simply because of the abundance of both cap space & trade assets. Your OP didn't even account for the returns we'd get from moving Conrie/UPL either IIRC.

Holy crap! Is that real talk?

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Intimidating AF!

 

[elchud]

Gaudreau gave them a discount, probably is very happy with the team situation and 5 years of family stability.

I predict the majority of us will not like the Mitts contract when it is signed. He is gonna get paid, not as much as Okposo got...but pretty close.

 

[Bendium]

Surrounding Power and Dahlin with better players will increase the salary they demand on an extension in all likelihood. I do not see any reason why waiting to sign them is good for the team barring unforeseen injuries.

When it comes to Power, the real conversation should be whether a 2-3 bridge and then the 7-8 year deal is the better way to go or whether going 7-8 years off the ELC, like they did with Cozens and Samuelsson, is the better path.

Bridge 3 years then sign 8 no question. Gets you 11 Powerful years and will end when he is 32.

 

[Bendium]

Oh come on... Really ?

How do you look at his form this season at 23 yo then make that post?

Hint. He'll finish top 15 in Norris voting this year. Easily. So unless you think he's going to regress in his 24 yo season... He's a perennial Norris candidate.

This is a deeply flawed Sabres fan point of view. I like Dahlin, but his boyband level fanboys really pump his value.

I'd call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate if he put together a legitimate Vezina calibre season at 23 yo...

...but Levi has played just six professional hockey games & is playing nowhere close to Vezina winning standard. He's way closer to Power than Dahlin if you want to make that comparison.

At this point i don't know why you are arguing about this - outside of trying to convince yourself Dahlin is going to sign some super cheap long tern extension for far less than he's worth.

Dahlin was much improved defensively this year, but is nowhere near Norris level. Quarterbacking the power play and playing behind one of the top 5 scoring lines in the NHL will always help your point totals. He is good, but has a ways to go to call Norris.

 

[TehDoak]

I'd call Levi a perennial Vezina candidate if he put together a legitimate Vezina calibre season at 23 yo...

Somewhere, Andrew Roycroft is smiling

...but Levi has played just six professional hockey games & is playing nowhere close to Vezina winning standard. He's way closer to Power than Dahlin if you want to make that comparison.

I like Levi...but as I've said before, I think it's time to pump the breaks. Goalie prospects can come in with alot of fanfare as the next big thing and be out of the NHL within a few years. 1st OA d-men can have a bit of a bust factor in them as well....but typically their floor is going to be higher than a highly touted goalie at 21. We won't know about Levi's longevity and staying power in this league for years. He could win the starting job, calder, and veznia next year and then never have a good season again in his career.

Remember Steve Mason? Came in, world on fire, 10 shutouts as a 20 year old for Columbus? Calder winner, 2nd in Vezina voting....struggled for years with columbus, had a mid career revival with Philly and then was out of the league? Andrew Raycroft is another cautionary tale.

I get it, we're all excited about having a potential good goalie.

But lets, pretty please, all calm down.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Or... You play him on one of the top two lines.

Have Krebs centre the 'third' line.

Then get a good defensive specialist / PK / faceoff guy for a true shut down line.

This is spot on. Jost is not what this team needs.

We need a 4th liner that is great at faceoffs, defensive play, and PK. We have enough players for the top 9 already.

Teddy Blueger is an option. Won't be too expensive. He's very good on PK. I'm sound like car sales man

 

[Djp]

If Mitts continues to show his late season form moving forward - it's extremely likely that he's going to be better than any of the shiny toys / magic beans.

You don't trade good players to make room for... worse players.

it’s about return on investmrnt and long term planning.

if you sign Mitts to 4 yr extension. Thsts 5 yrs from now.

you have in the pipeline Savoie, Ostlund, Kulich, Rosen and others. 3 yrs from now they are on the Sabres.

sure right now you say he’s better than Savoie. Savoie could be just as good as he is 2-3 yrs from now if put in the same situation. If they win a lottery ball and pick at 3…what about that player?

they are on ELCs vs higher fixed contracts which gives more cap flexibility

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Very good 40 pt center at 5 yr at 2.1 AAV. Wanting to give a 50 pt 3rd line winger like Mitts an 8x 4.5-5 is an insane idea.

Holy crap! Is that real talk?

It's OK to stop being a Mitts hater. I did it.

He's scored only 10 pts less than Cozens this season despite being shuffled around the lineup & has for long stretches been anchored by Olofsson.

In the last 10 games he's scored 15 pts when he's finally had some stability. Need i say that aside from the last one - these games have been hugely important 'must win' situations & he's stepped up to be arguably our best player. Certainly best forward. If you believe in all the behind the scenes stuff he's become a more important figure in the room as well.

So it's not crazy to project that he'd score at ~PPG clip if let's say - he were to play between Skinner & Tuch for a full season showing similar form to these last 10 games.

7m AAV for a 25 yo PPG centre is real talk. So take your hater glasses off...

 

[Ace]

Mittelstadt’s contract situation will take care of itself. If you can sign him long term at what you think is great value because of previous inconsistencies…if he’ll take that deal…you go ahead and do it. If not you wait it out. Their in a position where the only reason to sign him is if he signs a team friendly one because he loves it here and wants the security. No reason to do it otherwise. They have replacements coming…they have another year anyway. But value is value if he takes it.

Power should be signed long term at whatever number it takes because the team is improving and he’s great and the cap will go up. The opportunity to lock in a long term guaranteed deal and be a UFA at 29 is a great incentive. Offer him what Cozens got and see what happens. It will cost you more in the years you’re great if you don’t. There is zero doubt about it.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

This is a deeply flawed Sabres fan point of view. I like Dahlin, but his boyband level fanboys really pump his value.

Dahlin was much improved defensively this year, but is nowhere near Norris level. Quarterbacking the power play and playing behind one of the top 5 scoring lines in the NHL will always help your point totals. He is good, but has a ways to go to call Norris.

Boyband level?

Dahlin should get serious nominations for his performances this year. It's always more difficult when your playing for a small market non-playoff team... And after the outrageous point totals EK posted i expect he'll win it.

But Dahlin is at least in the discussion. At 23 yo. So unless he regresses from this point forward - i think it's fair to assume he'll be a contender for years to come.

Why can't some people just enjoy nice things?

Somewhere, Andrew Roycroft is smiling





I like Levi...but as I've said before, I think it's time to pump the breaks. Goalie prospects can come in with alot of fanfare as the next big thing and be out of the NHL within a few years. 1st OA d-men can have a bit of a bust factor in them as well....but typically their floor is going to be higher than a highly touted goalie at 21. We won't know about Levi's longevity and staying power in this league for years. He could win the starting job, calder, and veznia next year and then never have a good season again in his career.

Remember Steve Mason? Came in, world on fire, 10 shutouts as a 20 year old for Columbus? Calder winner, 2nd in Vezina voting....struggled for years with columbus, had a mid career revival with Philly and then was out of the league? Andrew Raycroft is another cautionary tale.

I get it, we're all excited about having a potential good goalie.

But lets, pretty please, all calm down.

You have completely misunderstood the context of this post within my discussion with @Jim Bob re Dahlin.

FYI I'm one of the 'pump the brakes' guys when it comes to Levi.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

it’s about return on investmrnt and long term planning.

if you sign Mitts to 4 yr extension. Thsts 5 yrs from now.

you have in the pipeline Savoie, Ostlund, Kulich, Rosen and others. 3 yrs from now they are on the Sabres.

sure right now you say he’s better than Savoie. Savoie could be just as good as he is 2-3 yrs from now if put in the same situation. If they win a lottery ball and pick at 3…what about that player?

they are on ELCs vs higher fixed contracts which gives more cap flexibility

They already have more than enough cap flexibility.

I completely get what you are saying. A few years down the line the situation may well change & we'll all be talking about a cap crunch.

But you only start making those type of moves when you immediately HAVE to.

'What if' this, 'could be' that... We're talking magic beans again. Let's make the playoffs for a couple years & get close to the cap before we get to this.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Somewhere, Andrew Roycroft is smiling





I like Levi...but as I've said before, I think it's time to pump the breaks. Goalie prospects can come in with alot of fanfare as the next big thing and be out of the NHL within a few years. 1st OA d-men can have a bit of a bust factor in them as well....but typically their floor is going to be higher than a highly touted goalie at 21. We won't know about Levi's longevity and staying power in this league for years. He could win the starting job, calder, and veznia next year and then never have a good season again in his career.

Remember Steve Mason? Came in, world on fire, 10 shutouts as a 20 year old for Columbus? Calder winner, 2nd in Vezina voting....struggled for years with columbus, had a mid career revival with Philly and then was out of the league? Andrew Raycroft is another cautionary tale.

I get it, we're all excited about having a potential good goalie.

But lets, pretty please, all calm down.

You can also look at other top goaltenders and most of them were prospects they developed.

Shesterkin, Vasilevsky, Saros, Hellebuyck, Sorokin, Oettinger,

The FA goalie that turns out is the goalie usually signed with an already stacked team

Kuemper & Ullmark

I don't know if two random anecdotes of goalies that played 15+ years ago is the strongest argument.

I have always been a firm believer that a great team can make a below average goalie look great. A bad team can make a great goalie look below average AKA John Gibson.

Much rather allocate resources for improving the forwards/defense

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

It's OK to stop being a Mitts hater. I did it.

He's scored only 10 pts less than Cozens this season despite being shuffled around the lineup & has for long stretches been anchored by Olofsson.

In the last 10 games he's scored 15 pts when he's finally had some stability. Need i say that aside from the last one - these games have been hugely important 'must win' situations & he's stepped up to be arguably our best player. Certainly best forward. If you believe in all the behind the scenes stuff he's become a more important figure in the room as well.

So it's not crazy to project that he'd score at ~PPG clip if let's say - he were to play between Skinner & Tuch for a full season showing similar form to these last 10 games.

7m AAV for a 25 yo PPG centre is real talk. So take your hater glasses off...

Why is someone a hater if they are questioning giving a guy with a hot 2 months a huge 7-8 year deal?

He has 57 total points, but also had only 14 goals and a hefty number of secondary assists.

Last year people wanted to give Asplund a 5-6 year contract extension. Same with Olofsson. People love to believe the hot streaks are the norm.

"7m AAV for a 25 yo PPG centre is real talk"

7M AAV for 2 hot months is crazy talk.

 

[Chainshot]

There have been a number of speculative figures for Mitts above, with most being in an area around Tuch which as a percentage of cap puts him near $5M per. They don’t need to make a decision but if they think he is going to be a similarly productive player, he probably gets more than that in a couple years when the deal is done.