Roster speculation part XIV

[TehDoak]

The Sanheim stuff is strange, mainly because there will be better prospects available when we pick. So we are talking about throwing in some pretty solid additions for the idea of fast tracking. But the only expert that I've heard comment on how far away Sanheim is, has said he needs AT LEAST one year in the AHL. So even the fast tracking idea doesn't add up.

D-men typically take 2-3 years at Jr/AHL level.

If Sanheim is 1 year at the AHL away, he'd be well ahead of anyone available to us at our pick.

And given the track records of D-men taken in the top 10, he'd likely be a much more "sure thing" than anyone we'd be able to take.

 

[stokes84]

D-men typically take 2-3 years at Jr/AHL level.

If Sanheim is 1 year at the AHL away, he'd be well ahead of anyone available to us at our pick.

And given the track records of D-men taken in the top 10, he'd likely be a much more "sure thing" than anyone we'd be able to take.

How is he anymore of a sure thing than his defensive partner? I think most people would say that Bean already has at least as good of a defensive game (not saying much) and is not far behind with his offensive game, despite being two years younger.

 

[sabrebuild]

How is he anymore of a sure thing than his defensive partner? I think most people would say that Bean already has at least as good of a defensive game (not saying much) and is not far behind with his offensive game, despite being two years younger.

Who are most people?

 

[brian_griffin]

Who are most people?

and...

How is he anymore of a sure thing than his defensive partner? I think most people would say that Bean already has at least as good of a defensive game (not saying much) and is not far behind with his offensive game, despite being two years younger.

...how much of Bean's play/shining is attributable to Sanheim's?

 

[Jame]

...how much of Bean's play/shining is attributable to Sanheim's?

plenty.

 

[TehDoak]

How is he anymore of a sure thing than his defensive partner? I think most people would say that Bean already has at least as good of a defensive game (not saying much) and is not far behind with his offensive game, despite being two years younger.

Did Pavel Brendl put up gaudy numbers because of Brad Moran or vice versa?

 

[TehDoak]

Also, I think its probably time to seriously take a gander at Chicago's cap situation. Especially given they are looking at at a 2.75-ish cap overage due to Panarin's bonuses.

 

[gallagt01]

Also, I think its probably time to seriously take a gander at Chicago's cap situation. Especially given they are looking at at a 2.75-ish cap overage due to Panarin's bonuses.

I don't have much interest in any players that would be made available (Shaw, Bickell, etc.).

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't have much interest in any players that would be made available (Shaw, Bickell, etc.).

Ditto

Chicago has a real handle on who their core guys are and who to dump for cap reasons.

You can get some good players when they go this route, but this offseason doesn't look as good as some past ones.

Now if the rumor was that they had to move Hammer.....

 

[tsujimoto74]

Ditto

Chicago has a real handle on who their core guys are and who to dump for cap reasons.

You can get some good players when they go this route, but this offseason doesn't look as good as some past ones.

Now if the rumor was that they had to move Hammer.....

I wish. Hammer-Risto would be a thing of beauty. I'd offer 'em their pick of Pysyk/McCabe + our 1st this year for starters (I assume the cost control of those assets would be appealing to them).

 

[brian_griffin]

Re: player performance bonuses and Cap issues, and as a subset of that, Chicago's situation...

1) This stuff is in the CBA article 50.5 / pages 280-281 and other sections referenced therein. I may be wrong, but my understanding is the NHL salary cap is not a strict cap and that some overage was allowed for performance bonuses.
I do not know the formula for that allowed overage, but it appears to be that the club's averaged salary cannot exceed 7.5% of the Upper Limit (the "performance bonus cushion"). I don't know how many other players they have on either ELCs or age 35+ with performance bonus clauses, but 7.5% of whatever the cap is ($74M???) is over $5M. $2.5M for Panarin fits, depending on what other Performance Bonuses there are.

performance bonueses are allowed for ELC's; age 35 contracts; and for players with >400 games who spent a long stretch on IR (or something likle that) who signed a 1-year deal only. I think those 3 categories of contracts only are eligible for performance bonuses.

2) If there is an issue with Chicago exceeding that allowed overage, it is not clear what action, if any they can take to rectify it with 3-4 games remaining and 90+ % of payroll for this year spent, since I think the CBA implies it must be done in the current year. Shedding for next year doesn't help if the bonus is paid at the end of this season. If it was earned this year and by CBA language is paid next year (year being as defined as this year's cap), then I agree these hypotheticals matter.

What does anyone know?
What is on the Hawk's board here on HF? link?
How much overage in aggregate for Performance bonuses (only) is Chicago looking at (full roster)?
Is it greater than ~$5.5M?

edit: before we lust over Chicago shedding (sp?) players, let's at least determine they have an actual financial issue with the CBA/cap, and that they need to take actions which would require shedding players.

 

[Husko]

I think if it really came down to it they would trade Seabrook before Hammer

 

[Jim Bob]

Re: player performance bonuses and Cap issues, and as a subset of that, Chicago's situation...

1) This stuff is in the CBA article 50.5 / pages 280-281 and other sections referenced therein. I may be wrong, but my understanding is the NHL salary cap is not a strict cap and that some overage was allowed for performance bonuses.
I do not know the formula for that allowed overage, but it appears to be that the club's averaged salary cannot exceed 7.5% of the Upper Limit (the "performance bonus cushion"). I don't know how many other players they have on either ELCs or age 35+ with performance bonus clauses, but 7.5% of whatever the cap it ($74M???) is over $5M.

2) If there is an issue with Chicago exceeding that allowed overage, it is not clear what action, if any they can take to rectify it with 3-4 games remaining and 90+ % of payroll for this year spent, since I think the CBA implies it must be done in the current year. Shedding for next year doesn't help if the bonus is paid at the end of this season. If it was earned this year and by CBA language is paid next year (year being as defined as this year's cap), then I agree these hypotheticals matter.

What does anyone know?
What is on the Hawk's board here?
How much overage in aggregate for Performance bonuses (only) is Chicago looking at (full roster)?
Is it greater than ~$5.5M?

I believe this is how the ELC performance bonus stuff works:

If a guy like Panarin hits various bonuses, they get applied to the following season's cap.

Panarin is going to get a boatload of bonus money, so that will impact Chicago's 2016-17 cap.

It's not an issue for this season as he technically doesn't get the money until after the regular season concludes.

 

[brian_griffin]

I believe this is how the ELC performance bonus stuff works:

If a guy like Panarin hits various bonuses, they get applied to the following season's cap.

Panarin is going to get a boatload of bonus money, so that will impact Chicago's 2016-17 cap.

It's not an issue for this season as he technically doesn't get the money until after the regular season concludes.

you changed your avatar - I didn't "recognize" you

OK, but still not an issue unless all performance bonuses for all Chicago players exceed 7.5% of Cap, let's assume it's 7.5% of $74M = $5.55M.

 

[Jim Bob]

you changed your avatar - I didn't "recognize" you

OK, but still not an issue unless all performance bonuses for all Chicago players exceed 7.5% of Cap, let's assume it's 7.5% of $74M = $5.55M.

I'm not sure where that data really comes from. You'd have to check the individual contracts of all their players and see if they are hitting bonuses.

Here is where General Fanager found out about Chicago having $750k in overages from last season:



Update:

TT is unlikely to hit his:

http://www.generalfanager.com/players/538

Performance bonuses shown are all Schedule A Bonuses. Schedule A bonuses (max $850,000): $212,500 for any of the following achievements - top 6 forward on team in ice time (total or average, min 42GP), 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, top 3 forward on team in +/- (min 42GP), 0.73 points per game (min 42GP), All Rookie team, All Star game, All Star game MVP.

 

[brian_griffin]

I'm not sure where that data really comes from. You'd have to check the individual contracts of all their players and see if they are hitting bonuses.

Here is where General Fanager found out about Chicago having $750k in overages from last season:



Update:

TT is unlikely to hit his:

http://www.generalfanager.com/players/538

Doak referenced Panarin: http://www.generalfanager.com/players/2097

===================
Separate issue: veteran 4th liners next year.

Assume Gionta is RW3 or RW4...
Assume Legwand may or may not be back...
Assume Schaller and/or another youngster (Bailey, etc.) is up from Rochester...
Assume McCormick never plays again...

Is P-A Parenteau worth inquiring about?
Leadership issues and vomit-on-the-old-core preferences aside, does Derek Roy have any post-injury NHL-caliber hockey left in him? If the wheels haven't come off, is he a Legwand equivalent in terms of role/usage?

 

[Jim Bob]

Doak reference

Panarin is getting all the notice because he is hitting his Schedule A bonuses and he's almost there with his Schedule B bonuses:

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/artemi-panarins-bonuses-could-be-boon-for-him-bad-for-hawks/

Here’s an English phrase that Artemi Panarin understands: “Two and a half million dollars.”

Panarin professed ignorance Monday when asked about the performance bonuses that are within his reach — bonuses that could have a devastating impact on the Blackhawks’ salary-cap situation next season. But when posing a question about the potential financial windfall to his interpreter, Panarin’s eyes bulged wide after hearing that number.

“Honestly, the first time I looked at the contract, I saw that bonus, and then I forgot about it,’ Panarin said through the interpreter. “I don’t even think about it. At the end of the season, I’ll look at it again.”

According to Panarin’s agent, Tom Lynn, Panarin took a little less salary — $812,500 rather than the entry-level maximum of $925,000 — to sign with Chicago over his other suitors partly because he knew he’d have a better chance to hit his performance bonuses with the talent-rich Hawks. And sure enough, he’s getting there.

With 25 goals and 37 assists in just 68 games, Panarin’s basically a lock to hit his “Schedule A” bonuses, which are worth $850,000. If he manages to finish in the Top 10 in the league among forwards in just one of the following categories — goals, assists, points, points per game — or win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP or be named a postseason NHL All-Star, it’ll trigger his “Schedule B” bonus, which is worth a hefty $1.725 million.

Panarin is tied for 10th in the league in points among forwards.

And here’s the rub. Because the Hawks are so tight against the cap right now, most of that bonus would count against next year’s cap as an overage. So if Panarin finishes in the top 10 in points, the Hawks would get hit with about $2.3 million in extra cap hit, per generalfanager.com. That’s on top of Panarin’s $812,500 salary. And it could even mean the difference between re-signing a player such as Andrew Shaw or losing him.

If Panarin doesn’t hit the big bonus, the overage will be about $575,000.

“I’m thinking about points, but not about the bonus,” Panarin said. “It’s the same in every season. I don’t focus on the money, just on my game.”

Right now he's 12th in points and just a point out of a tie for 10th.

 

[Jim Bob]

Separate issue: veteran 4th liners next year.

Assume Gionta is RW3 or RW4...
Assume Legwand may or may not be back...
Assume Schaller and/or another youngster (Bailey, etc.) is up from Rochester...
Assume McCormick never plays again...

Is P-A Parenteau worth inquiring about?
Leadership issues and vomit-on-the-old-core preferences aside, does Derek Roy have any post-injury NHL-caliber hockey left in him? If the wheels haven't come off, is he a Legwand equivalent in terms of role/usage?

No to Roy just because I don't see him as a 4th line guy.

PAP is kind of in the same boat.

Dominic Moore might not be a bad fit...

Personally, I would look for a guy that is solid at the dot and on the PK to replace Legwand.

 

[Uberpecker]

Quick question: In your opinion, is there a severe reason (other than Bylsma) why Pysyk shouldn't get a look next to Risto to finish the season?
He already plays his offhandside, seems like a good fit playertype-wise and could fill an enormous need if he sticks. Also it could push his trade value. If the experiment fails, no harm would be done since the games are meaningless, anyway.

 

[OkimLom]

No to Roy just because I don't see him as a 4th line guy.

PAP is kind of in the same boat.

Dominic Moore might not be a bad fit...

Personally, I would look for a guy that is solid at the dot and on the PK to replace Legwand.

If we don't re-sign Legwand, I wouldn't mind Buffalo going after Cullen. Maybe have him next to Eichel to continue to help with leadership at even strength. He can play the similar role as Legwand on the PK.

 

[brian_griffin]

Panarin is getting all the notice because he is hitting his Schedule A bonuses and he's almost there with his Schedule B bonuses:

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/artemi-panarins-bonuses-could-be-boon-for-him-bad-for-hawks/



Right now he's 12th in points and just a point out of a tie for 10th.

Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman may be watching the NHL’s scoring leaderboard more than the standings this week. That’s because forward Artemi Panarin can earn a $1.725 million bonus by finishing in the Top 10 in league scoring, according to GeneralFanager.com. Panarin, 24, momentarily jumped to ninth with his four-point effort Sunday afternoon, but fell back to 12th when the day’s games ended. The Bread Man has eight points in two games in April so far. He can max out at $2.575 million in bonuses. Since the Hawks are on track to finish with just $156,442 in space on the $71.4 million cap, they would start out with an “overage†of more than $2.4 million on next season’s cap. There goes any potential salary cap increase.

The above is from the same link which had the Stamkos surgery notes you posted in the around-the-nhl thread.

So I think we now have Panarin's bonus issue quantified - as Doak noted.
But again if I'm reading it right, the CBA says teams can have Averaged Club Salary up to 7.5% in excess of the Upper Limit. See CBA article 50.5(h)(ii).

 

[Zip15]

Quick question: In your opinion, is there a severe reason (other than Bylsma) why Pysyk shouldn't get a look next to Risto to finish the season?
He already plays his offhandside, seems like a good fit playertype-wise and could fill an enormous need if he sticks. Also it could push his trade value. If the experiment fails, no harm would be done since the games are meaningless, anyway.

I like RD Pysyk. LD Pysyk, not so much. Not sure I want him on the top pair on his offhand side. I don't like Gorges on the top pair, and I think it's the most under-discussed complaint about Bylsma's usage, but I don't think Pysyk is the answer there on the left side. I would like to see some more Bogo-Risto, as they've done decently together in a small sample, but I don't expect it to happen at this late juncture.

Ideally, I'd like to see some of this in the last three games:

Bogo-Risto
McCabe-Pysyk
Gorges-Nelson

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Gorges as a high QoC/low OZS/low QoT/high minute defenseman is probably the best usage of his skillset, it's just that Risto didn't have to join him in that role for 80% of the season, especially when McCabe-Bogo is equally trash while having it easier at everything.

 

[dotcommunism]

The above is from the same link which had the Stamkos surgery notes you posted in the around-the-nhl thread.

So I think we now have Panarin's bonus issue quantified - as Doak noted.
But again if I'm reading it right, the CBA says teams can have Averaged Club Salary up to 7.5% in excess of the Upper Limit. See CBA article 50.5(h)(ii).

Ah, the bonus cushion. Now, of course, this isn't an issue that's been relevant at all for Sabres fans lately what with the Sabres not coming anywhere close to the cap. Here's a basic summary:

1) Teams have to account for potential bonuses when it comes to the salary cap.
2) Teams are allowed to exceed the cap by 7.5% due to bonuses owed (the bonus cushion). This is why sites like cap friendly don't show bonuses when they show player's cap hits.
3) At the end of the year, only bonuses that were actually paid out count towards a team's Averaged Club Salary for that season.
4) Those paid out bonuses can put a team over the salary cap (since the hypothetical bonuses allow a team to exceed the cap by 7.5%). Any such overage rolls over to count against the salary cap for next season.

So a team like Chicago that is at or near the salary cap, is technically over the salary cap due to potential bonuses that players could reach. They are allowed to exceed the cap by 7.5% due to bonuses. Now that overage doesn't actually matter for anything unless those performance bonuses are actually met. In that case, to the extent that they exceed the salary cap, such an overage rolls over to the next season.

Note that if paid bonuses don't cause a team to exceed the cap, then there is no roll over. It only happens when such bonuses cause a year end overage.

 

[sabrebuild]

I like RD Pysyk. LD Pysyk, not so much. Not sure I want him on the top pair on his offhand side. I don't like Gorges on the top pair, and I think it's the most under-discussed complaint about Bylsma's usage, but I don't think Pysyk is the answer there on the left side. I would like to see some more Bogo-Risto, as they've done decently together in a small sample, but I don't expect it to happen at this late juncture.

Ideally, I'd like to see some of this in the last three games:

Bogo-Risto
McCabe-Pysyk
Gorges-Nelson

I'd like to see some variation of that.