Speculation: Roster Speculation, 2018 Off-Season

[Meichel Kane]

Athletic had an article singing the praises of Hutton. Sold me a bit on him.

 

[Ace]

Athletic had an article singing the praises of Hutton. Sold me a bit on him.

Link?

 

[darcyRegier]

Would you guys take Hossa and Anisimov for cheap? Both contracts end when Dahlin's is due.

 

[Tapu Coco]

Done deal?

 

[sabresEH]

Nothing is done until Sunday. It all looks promising but nothing is done.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Bernier to Detroit? Lehner couldn’t lock that down either? Wow

 

[jcbeze]

Bernier to Detroit? Lehner couldn’t lock that down either? Wow

Poor Islanders....

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hutton and Ullmark in 18-19 will outperform Lehner/Johnson in 17-18.

At the very least we have a competent 1B goalie. Are those worth 4 mil? Not really but he's off the books by the time Dahlin is ready. And we have Poms, Moulson and Bogo off the next two years.

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hutton and Ullmark in 18-19 will outperform Lehner/Johnson in 17-18.

At the very least we have a competent 1B goalie. Are those worth 4 mil? Not really but he's off the books by the time Dahlin is ready. And we have Poms, Moulson and Bogo off the next two years.

The bar has been set extremely low

 

[Jim Bob]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hutton and Ullmark in 18-19 will outperform Lehner/Johnson in 17-18.

At the very least we have a competent 1B goalie. Are those worth 4 mil? Not really but he's off the books by the time Dahlin is ready. And we have Poms, Moulson and Bogo off the next two years.

If they don't outperform Lehner and Johnson who both had the worst seasons of their NHL career....

 

[gallagt01]

I'll go out on a limb and say Hutton and Ullmark in 18-19 will outperform Lehner/Johnson in 17-18.

At the very least we have a competent 1B goalie. Are those worth 4 mil? Not really but he's off the books by the time Dahlin is ready. And we have Poms, Moulson and Bogo off the next two years.

"Go out on a limb"?

 

[jc17]

For what its worth Corsica has Hutton as one of the best goalies in expected save% vs actual save%. On the radio they were talking about the opposite but I don't know where they got their numbers.

 

[Icicle]

For what its worth Corsica has Hutton as one of the best goalies in expected save% vs actual save%. On the radio they were talking about the opposite but I don't know where they got their numbers.

Both Hutton and Elliot were ~20th in league for high danger save attempts despite topping the league everywhere else. I’ve read Blues fans say the defense was bad about rebounds that caused this systemically, but I haven’t seen that backed up

 

[rabi]

Will Lehner all of a sudden become agile on his skates?

I bet he’s got two bad hips

 

[jc17]

Both Hutton and Elliot were ~20th in league for high danger save attempts despite topping the league everywhere else. I’ve read Blues fans say the defense was bad about rebounds that caused this systemically, but I haven’t seen that backed up

His high danger save% didn't look great but it was still better than Lehner's. At least we know it shouldn't be a downgrade.

 

[SabresFan26]

Getting Hutton, whom many regard as the top goalie this off season (albeit not a deep year) is another great step and start to a promising off season. Really curious where Botts goes from here especially up front and if we grab a veteran RHD.

 

[jBuds]

"Go out on a limb"?

I laughed out loud, thank you

 

[Husko]

Really solid article on Girgensons by Stimson in the Athletic. Really makes the case that Girgs role really should be on a defensive line, possibly along side ROR. Apparently Girgs actually has very good suppression numbers relative to the rest of the team, although the effect seems to really be somehow just killing offense at both ends of the ice by seemingly “slowing the game down.” I’ve previously thought of him as a poor mans Jochen Hecht, but perhaps a better analogy would be poor mans Mike Grier.

 

[SabresFan26]

Really solid article on Girgensons by Stimson in the Athletic. Really makes the case that Girgs role really should be on a defensive line, possibly along side ROR. Apparently Girgs actually has very good suppression numbers relative to the rest of the team, although the effect seems to really be somehow just killing offense at both ends of the ice by seemingly “slowing the game down.” I’ve previously thought of him as a poor mans Jochen Hecht, but perhaps a better analogy would be poor mans Mike Grier.

Grier in alone on a breakaway!!!!! And the puck goes on edge and he can’t get good wood on it. (RJ voice)

Loved Grier but he had stone hands and you can see it with Girgs a bit too. Probably a good analogy between the two.

 

[Ace]

Manyof Girgensons goals have been speeding in and beating the goalie. He doesn’t have hands of stone he has a head of stone.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

I miss the old Girgensons

 

[Husko]

Really solid article on Girgensons by Stimson in the Athletic. Really makes the case that Girgs role really should be on a defensive line, possibly along side ROR. Apparently Girgs actually has very good suppression numbers relative to the rest of the team, although the effect seems to really be somehow just killing offense at both ends of the ice by seemingly “slowing the game down.” I’ve previously thought of him as a poor mans Jochen Hecht, but perhaps a better analogy would be poor mans Mike Grier.

Now that I'm on my computer, here are some select quotes:

Conclusions
I think the answer to how to use Girgensons comes down to how Housley wants to set up his lines. If he wants to have Eichel and Reinhart center their own line and fill in around them, it makes sense to use Girgensons on O’Reilly’s wing and deploy that line whenever possible against the opposition’s top scoring threat. Both players have strong shot suppression numbers relative to their teammates and could form a strong line to free up Eichel and Reinhart to generate offense with Sheary, Kyle Okposo, Jason Pominville and perhaps even Casey Mittlestadt. Girgensons hasn’t done much to indicate he’s about to break out offensively, as his only tendency when he’s on the ice is to slow the game down and suppress shots of any kind. Observe the below HockeyViz chart. [Chart omitted]

The way to read this chart is to look at each player’s name and note the shot rates for and against along the x and y axis. This tells you how the team performed with that player on the ice. Now, WOWY (With or Without You) charts can be deceptive, especially if you share a position with a top player (think being a center on the Boston Bruins and never playing alongside Patrice Bergeron), but they can provide a quick, high-level resource for how a player impacts a team. What we see is that Girgensons moves the team performance into the “Dull” section, meaning low shots for and against. Things slow down.

This is essentially who he is: Girgensons likely won’t add much in the way of offense, but will help suppress shots when on the ice. That being said, his scoring might improve if he’s on O’Reilly’s wing with another scoring talent on the opposite one.

In the case of Girgensons, I think his best role would be as a shot suppression winger alongside O’Reilly, which would give Housley two-thirds of a shutdown line to take advantage of matchups when possible.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Sign Grabner 2/9, Hutton 3/12, then a couple vet 4th line forwards. Put Sam at center, and try to spread out the top 9 with balanced scoring. This setup puts 2 players on each line who I think are capable of top 6 production (~40 points) and also gives Mittelstadt time to break in on the wing. If RoR stays put him on the third line so he can play a few minutes less a game. Keep him fresher.


Sheary-Eichel-Grabner
Mittelstadt-Reinhart-Okposo
Girgensons-RoR-ERod
UFA-Larsson-UFA

Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Guhle-Bogosian
Nelson/Beaulieu

Hutton
Ullmark

 

[sabrebuild]

Sign Grabner 2/9, Hutton 3/12, then a couple vet 4th line forwards. Put Sam at center, and try to spread out the top 9 with balanced scoring. This setup puts 2 players on each line who I think are capable of top 6 production (~40 points) and also gives Mittelstadt time to break in on the wing. If RoR stays put him on the third line so he can play a few minutes less a game. Keep him fresher.


Sheary-Eichel-Grabner
Mittelstadt-Reinhart-Okposo
Girgensons-RoR-ERod
UFA-Larsson-UFA

Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Guhle-Bogosian
Nelson/Beaulieu

Hutton
Ullmark

Bravo sir.

 

[Icicle]

Sign Grabner 2/9, Hutton 3/12, then a couple vet 4th line forwards. Put Sam at center, and try to spread out the top 9 with balanced scoring. This setup puts 2 players on each line who I think are capable of top 6 production (~40 points) and also gives Mittelstadt time to break in on the wing. If RoR stays put him on the third line so he can play a few minutes less a game. Keep him fresher.


Sheary-Eichel-Grabner
Mittelstadt-Reinhart-Okposo
Girgensons-RoR-ERod
UFA-Larsson-UFA

Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Guhle-Bogosian
Nelson/Beaulieu

Hutton
Ullmark

I’d consider this a successful July 1st