Roster Speculation 2015-16 Part IV

[tsujimoto74]

the reasonable dodge to this is that top-pair defensemen are significantly more important than first line wingers

Even if we're holding the argument to just defensemen, what about OEL? His team was terrible and he was their #1 D. Is he not a true top pairing defender now? What about when Nashville finished in the bottom 5 with Weber? Tampa with Hedman? If the logic feels viable enough to build an argument about a particular player off of, then it ought to hold true for every comparable scenario and you should be willing to follow the thought down that rabbit hole. If the reasoning is solid it will hold up to the scrutiny; if it's not, you can either roll with whatever outlandish conclusions it bares out (as suggested in the Dennett quote I paraphrased), or you've got to concede that it's faulty logic and find different evidence for your claim. Or even maybe concede that perhaps the claim was wrong. Of course, a weak argument doesn't necessarily mean that the claim it was supporting is incorrect (though, in this case, I think it is), but it's certainly isn't going to convince anyone otherwise.

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

As the resident guy that could be classified as "anti-Russian".....

Why all the Grigerenko hate?

Last year was nothing but positive for him. He came into camp in excellent shape, good attitude, and one of the best players in preseason. He then went to Rochester, had his ups and down but had a decent season. Showed ability, and that he had NHL skills in late season call up.

He's 21 freaking years old.

He's 21 freaking years old.

Eichel is a top 6 player.
Kane is a top 6 player.
Girgensons is a top 6 player.
Reinhart is a top 6 player. (expected)
Ennis is a top 6 player
Moulson is a top 6 player.

Larsson is getting a lot of love....

That 6 legit top 6 players, granted, some need development...plus 1.

I have no idea why we are not trying to model 05-07....roll 3, with 1 that feasts on mis-matches.

Eichel will be playing #1 center on opening night....I'd bet on that. He's the future of the franchise. TMGM said he wants Reinhart in Buffalo, that's 1 & 2 center. Now pair them up with the top 6 players.....

1. Girgensons - Eichel - Larsson - a bull, workout freak; another bull, workout freak; and according to Hockey News prospect mag from 2 years ago, another bull. Can you say possession, possession and possession??????

2. Kane - Reinhart - Gionta - 2 way, 2 way, 2 way.....protection from 2 vets for the rookie. D-Zone starts.

3. Moulson - Grigerenko - Ennis - The "feast" line. Speed, playmaking and a finisher. Give the kid real line mates. Let them take the easy O-zone starts.

4 Foligno - ??? - Des - Really where I see a need....solid, vet center. Size and hits.

Hodgson???? I'd love to package him for Gormley.

There is a place for Grigerenko, especially a 21 year old who has been progressing, just need to put players positions to succeed.

 

[Matt Ress]

Opening day forward lines with no trades...

Kane - Girgensons - Eichel
Moulson - Larsson - Ennis
Foligno - Reinhart - Gionta
DesLauriers - Grigorenko - McCormick

I would expect Eichel to move to center asap. If Grigorenko plays well who do we move out of top 9?

How can anyone "play well" surrounded by Des and McCormick?

 

[Jame]

How can anyone "play well" surrounded by Des and McCormick?

Larsson did it in 13-14 season...

 

[Matt Ress]

Larsson did it in 13-14 season...

Stop it. Lol

 

[Blitz]

Opening day forward lines with no trades...

Kane - Girgensons - Eichel
Moulson - Larsson - Ennis
Foligno - Reinhart - Gionta
DesLauriers - Grigorenko - McCormick

I would expect Eichel to move to center asap. If Grigorenko plays well who do we move out of top 9?

Grigorenko starts the season in my top-9 for sure... It sounds like Reinhart is expected to make the leap, would be interesting to see what Grigs could do with such a creative centre beside him, and Gio on the opposite wing. With Bylsma not typically using the 4th line as a "4th line", I think Foligno, Cody, & Des would be a horror to play against while still being able to contribute in a 2-way capacity w/ decent TOI.

Kane - Girgensons - Eichel
Moulson - Larsson - Ennis
Grigorenko - Reinhart - Gionta
Foligno - McCormick - Deslauriers
X. Schaller, Kaleta

 

[enthusiast]

Even if we're holding the argument to just defensemen, what about OEL? His team was terrible and he was their #1 D. Is he not a true top pairing defender now? What about when Nashville finished in the bottom 5 with Weber? Tampa with Hedman? If the logic feels viable enough to build an argument about a particular player off of, then it ought to hold true for every comparable scenario and you should be willing to follow the thought down that rabbit hole. If the reasoning is solid it will hold up to the scrutiny; if it's not, you can either roll with whatever outlandish conclusions it bares out (as suggested in the Dennett quote I paraphrased), or you've got to concede that it's faulty logic and find different evidence for your claim. Or even maybe concede that perhaps the claim was wrong. Of course, a weak argument doesn't necessarily mean that the claim it was supporting is incorrect (though, in this case, I think it is), but it's certainly isn't going to convince anyone otherwise.

No, they aren't. A top-pair defenseman will inherently carry his team to success universally. One can be a very skilled defenseman without being a true top-pair player

This is a league full of pretenders and frauds

 

[mikemcburn]

How can anyone "play well" surrounded by Des and McCormick?

Yep.

 

[Jame]

Stop it. Lol

Start it. Lol

 

[enthusiast]

If we start calling players fulfilling certain aspects of the game that we fetishize "playing well" I'll start talking up John Scott

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

1. Girgensons - Eichel - Larsson - a bull, workout freak; another bull, workout freak; and according to Hockey News prospect mag from 2 years ago, another bull. Can you say possession, possession and possession??????

2. Kane - Reinhart - Gionta - 2 way, 2 way, 2 way.....protection from 2 vets for the rookie. D-Zone starts.

3. Moulson - Grigerenko - Ennis - The "feast" line. Speed, playmaking and a finisher. Give the kid real line mates. Let them take the easy O-zone starts.

4 Foligno - ??? - Des - Really where I see a need....solid, vet center. Size and hits.

Hodgson???? I'd love to package him for Gormley.

There is a place for Grigerenko, especially a 21 year old who has been progressing, just need to put players positions to succeed.

These are exactly the lines i had posted earlier, except i had larsson on the left, girgs on the right. I kind of love the idea of balancing the 3 lines out like this. If grigorenko makes the team, you gotta think this is one of the looks we see.

Who do you think is more adaptable to play on the right side - Larsson or Girgs? I've only seen Larsson play on the left so far but I believe we saw Girgs on the right at one point, though not for very long.

 

[Jame]

If we start calling players fulfilling certain aspects of the game that we fetishize "playing well" I'll start talking up John Scott

I'll stick with my definition of "playing well" on a 4th line... I'm sure you have one of your own

 

[Jame]

Larrson is great man. I just don't think he's proven it yet.

What does that have to do with whether he played well or not on the 4th line that year?

Someone asked how anyone could expect Grigo to play well in a 4th line role? If he's a good hockey player it should be rather easy.

 

[joshjull]

These are exactly the lines i had posted earlier, except i had larsson on the left, girgs on the right. I kind of love the idea of balancing the 3 lines out like this. If grigorenko makes the team, you gotta think this is one of the looks we see.

Who do you think is more adaptable to play on the right side - Larsson or Girgs? I've only seen Larsson play on the left so far but I believe we saw Girgs on the right at one point, though not for very long.

I'm pretty sure Girgs has played all three forward spots in the NHL.

 

[joshjull]

How can anyone "play well" surrounded by Des and McCormick?

By playing well? Its all relative. I doubt the coaches would expect anyone centering that line to be tearing it up offensively. But if they are playing a strong defensive and possession game while creating some chances relative to their role. That would be playing well.

 

[joshjull]

As the resident guy that could be classified as "anti-Russian".....

Why all the Grigerenko hate?

Last year was nothing but positive for him. He came into camp in excellent shape, good attitude, and one of the best players in preseason. He then went to Rochester, had his ups and down but had a decent season. Showed ability, and that he had NHL skills in late season call up.

He's 21 freaking years old.

He's 21 freaking years old.

Eichel is a top 6 player.
Kane is a top 6 player.
Girgensons is a top 6 player.
Reinhart is a top 6 player. (expected)
Ennis is a top 6 player
Moulson is a top 6 player.

Larsson is getting a lot of love....

That 6 legit top 6 players, granted, some need development...plus 1.

I have no idea why we are not trying to model 05-07....roll 3, with 1 that feasts on mis-matches.

Eichel will be playing #1 center on opening night....I'd bet on that. He's the future of the franchise. TMGM said he wants Reinhart in Buffalo, that's 1 & 2 center. Now pair them up with the top 6 players.....

1. Girgensons - Eichel - Larsson - a bull, workout freak; another bull, workout freak; and according to Hockey News prospect mag from 2 years ago, another bull. Can you say possession, possession and possession??????

2. Kane - Reinhart - Gionta - 2 way, 2 way, 2 way.....protection from 2 vets for the rookie. D-Zone starts.

3. Moulson - Grigerenko - Ennis - The "feast" line. Speed, playmaking and a finisher. Give the kid real line mates. Let them take the easy O-zone starts.

4 Foligno - ??? - Des - Really where I see a need....solid, vet center. Size and hits.

Hodgson???? I'd love to package him for Gormley.

There is a place for Grigerenko, especially a 21 year old who has been progressing, just need to put players positions to succeed.

I can't say for sure who our top 3 centers will be. But I can say with confidence that its not likely to be those three to start the season. Bylsma has already stated he is going to use Girgs at center to protect some of the other youngsters. So he will have one of the 3 spots.

 

[sabrebuild]

Playing well vs producing seems to be a distinction that is not accepted on this board.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

1. Girgensons - Eichel - O'Reilly- a bull, workout freak; another bull, workout freak; and Ryan O-mother****in-Reilly, another bull. Can you say possession, possession and possession??????

2. Kane - Reinhart - Gionta - 2 way, 2 way, 2 way.....protection from 2 vets for the rookie. D-Zone starts.

3. Moulson - Grigerenko - Ennis - The "feast" line. Speed, playmaking and a finisher. Give the kid real line mates. Let them take the easy O-zone starts.

4 Foligno - Larsson - Des - Fun Fun Fun

Just for kicks I made a slight revision to your lines…

For the latter half of the season, of course. When centers are ostensibly broken in.

 

[sabrebuild]

1. Girgensons - Eichel - Larsson - a bull, workout freak; another bull, workout freak; and according to Hockey News prospect mag from 2 years ago, another bull. Can you say possession, possession and possession??????

2. Kane - Reinhart - Gionta - 2 way, 2 way, 2 way.....protection from 2 vets for the rookie. D-Zone starts.

3. Moulson - Grigerenko - Ennis - The "feast" line. Speed, playmaking and a finisher. Give the kid real line mates. Let them take the easy O-zone starts.

4 Foligno - ??? - Des - Really where I see a need....solid, vet center. Size and hits.

Hodgson???? I'd love to package him for Gormley.

There is a place for Grigerenko, especially a 21 year old who has been progressing, just need to put players positions to succeed.

I like the line up. That is until some new acquisitions show up this offseason.

 

[Zman5778]

Playing well vs producing seems to be a distinction that is not accepted on this board.

But...but....but.....

You can't be playing well unless you're accumulating POINTS!!!


(if I need the sarcasm smiley here, I don't know what to say)

 

[Jame]

By playing well? Its all relative. I doubt the coaches would expect anyone centering that line to be tearing it up offensively. But if they are playing a strong defensive and possession game while creating some chances relative to their role. That would be playing well.

Yup.

 

[enthusiast]

Most sabres played well last year tbh

 

[joshjull]

Just for kicks I made a slight revision to your lines…

For the latter half of the season, of course. When centers are ostensibly broken in.

Thats quite a demotion for Larsson

 

[30Yonge]

How can anyone "play well" surrounded by Des and McCormick?

Larsson did it in 13-14 season...

That seems rather unlikely since Des Larson McCormick appears to have never happened in 2013-14.

Larsson was linemates with McCormick ~5% of the time and with Deslauriers ~11.5% of the time but they never played on the same line in any positional combination. Flynn and Girgensons were Larsson's most frequent linemates as he was with each of them ~33% of his ice time. Larsson spent more time with Ott(~20%), Ennis(~10%) and Stafford (~10%) than he did McCormick as they only played ~15 games together.


21.8% EV 65 FLYNN,BRIAN - 28 GIRGENSONS,ZEMGUS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
8.27% EV 27 D'AGOSTINI,MATT - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 9 OTT,STEVE
6.99% EV 63 ENNIS,TYLER - 28 GIRGENSONS,ZEMGUS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
6.54% EV 27 D'AGOSTINI,MATT - 82 FOLIGNO,MARCUS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
5.11% EV 65 FLYNN,BRIAN - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 12 PORTER,KEVIN
5.04% EV 72 ADAM,LUKE - 44 DESLAURIERS,NICOLAS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
3.91% EV 88 CONACHER,CORY - 65 FLYNN,BRIAN - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
2.93% EV 28 GIRGENSONS,ZEMGUS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 21 STAFFORD,DREW
2.86% EV 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 9 OTT,STEVE - 21 STAFFORD,DREW
2.63% EV 44 DESLAURIERS,NICOLAS - 27 D'AGOSTINI,MATT - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
2.18% EV 82 FOLIGNO,MARCUS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 17 OMARK,LINUS
2.11% EV 88 CONACHER,CORY - 44 DESLAURIERS,NICOLAS - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN
1.88% EV 65 FLYNN,BRIAN - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 9 OTT,STEVE
1.5% EV 37 ELLIS,MATT - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 32 SCOTT,JOHN
1.28% EV 63 ENNIS,TYLER - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 9 OTT,STEVE
1.2% EV 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 8 MCCORMICK,CODY - 12 PORTER,KEVIN
1.2% EV 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 23 LEINO,VILLE - 8 MCCORMICK,CODY
1.2% EV 36 KALETA,PATRICK - 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 32 SCOTT,JOHN
1.05% EV 22 LARSSON,JOHAN - 9 OTT,STEVE - 32 SCOTT,JOHN

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Thats quite a demotion for Larsson

I wasn't thinking demotion as much as I'd just love to see those four trios together. C'mon, you can't tell me you wouldn't love to see Foligno, Larsson, and Des out there as a fourth line, even though you could argue that all 3 guys are top 9 or even top 6 material. Any one of those 4 lines, including the "4th," could easily be the best line any given night.

Not that balanced lines are always a good idea, but it just makes the team look deeper when you spread everyone out like that.