Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Chockey22]

Bull shit. Team sucks in front of him. Defense sucks in front of him. PK is 32nd in the league. Worst. On a solid team he is top 5 easily.

I get that Isles fans will have different opinions on different players, and I completely respect those who think Sorokin is top 5. I happen to disagree by a little (still think he's top half in the league), and recognize I'm in the minority on this. In any case, it still doesn't have any bearing on my general point about whether it makes sense to keep him IF the team opts to do a full rebuild.

 

[12Dog]

Florida was able to re-tool, re-invent themselves pretty quickly

 

[Chockey22]

I think I can speak for anyone advocating for a tear down, not one of us is harboring any illusions of guaranteed success. We know that rebuilds are risky and require a combination of smarts and luck, so please, stop writing "there are no guarantees" or printing lists of draft busts. We know.

Here's what is guaranteed; doing what Lou has been doing and will seemingly continue to do is a guarantee of continued failure. To be a great team you need cornerstone elite players and being a middle of the pack team ad infinitum, unattractive to FAs and unable to draft in top 5 position ever, you will never get you there.

But I think that's their point - there is plenty of room between complete tear down and continuing doing what Lou is doing. We all know that continuing to run it back all the time as Lou has done is a guarantee of continual failure; the question is whether a full rebuild is the only way or if there is a path to contention that falls short of a full rebuild but not continuing the current path.

The other point with emphasizing that there are no guarantees is simply to say this is all a game of playing probabilities.
Let's say hypothetically that a full rebuild takes 5 years and has a 20% of success (Meaning annual contention for the Cup over a sustained period).
Now let's say there is a 2 year retool path that has a 10% chance of success.
I recognize these numbers of completely made up, but they capture the basic point - it's all a matter of timing and chance of success and some people will prefer one path to another for a wide variety of reasons; and I prefer not to call out others for having one preference over the other.

 

[seabass45]

The Rangers tore it down, rebuilt, and here they are scrambling again after not winning anything.

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

 

[miscs75]

Are you describing Hutton or Duclair?

Hutton. If they move on from Mayfield magically, I’d expect him to be the 3rd pairing RD until the seasons over just to fill a void. He’s better defensively than Bolduc and Salo were and RHD are always tougher to find.

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

On top of that, all us Islanders fans are enjoying the soap opera with a bucket of popcorn. It’s going to be fun watching Chris Drury vs the Rangers players and what mess it will become.

 

[gordie43]

Varlamov to LTIR gets enough cash for Duclair to return. What happens when varlamov returns or are we expecting an announcement next month he’s done for the year?

A turnaround is going to be tough but to have to rely on Helberg every fourth start is a concern

 

[LeapOnOver]

Pretty sure Sorokin has a no movement clause, and can’t be waived or traded or sent down or anything unless he wants to. FYI for those in the trade Sorokin section.

I don't think any of that matters at this point. Sorokin is not someone we would trade because he's not living up to his contract. If you tell Sorokin you are about to sell of established vets for a rebuild/retool, he'll probably agree to get traded to a contender.

I love Sorokin. At times, he seems like the only bright spot. I'm not sure I can fully commit to trading him, but I think it's easy to forget his age as he came over so late from Russia. If we do go the rebuild retool route, it's unlikely he'll be in his prime when we are able to compete again. If Isles do move on from LL and commit to a rebuild, you'd have to consider trading him.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Varlamov to LTIR gets enough cash for Duclair to return. What happens when varlamov returns or are we expecting an announcement next month he’s done for the year?

A turnaround is going to be tough but to have to rely on Helberg every fourth start is a concern

Hogberg is not a bad goalie, imo. I'm glad he's back in NA trying to prove himself. I think an Isles turnaround is least dependent upon goaltending. Special teams has broken this season. It's pathetic how bad it is. In a corporate setting, anybody in charge of that would be long gone. I refuse to believe personnel is the issue. It's management. It's staggering how poorly run it is. They don't even take players off the PP to try anything new, like other coaches would do to send a message. The PK, there really should just be an option to give an automatic goal on the PK so Isles have more time to get the goal back.

 

[Throttle]

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

Philly had lotto ball luck not too earlier than NYR and got nothing out of it. So, lotto balls are not guarantees either.

 

[Torrey Redux]

But I think that's their point - there is plenty of room between complete tear down and continuing doing what Lou is doing. We all know that continuing to run it back all the time as Lou has done is a guarantee of continual failure; the question is whether a full rebuild is the only way or if there is a path to contention that falls short of a full rebuild but not continuing the current path.

The other point with emphasizing that there are no guarantees is simply to say this is all a game of playing probabilities.
Let's say hypothetically that a full rebuild takes 5 years and has a 20% of success (Meaning annual contention for the Cup over a sustained period).
Now let's say there is a 2 year retool path that has a 10% chance of success.
I recognize these numbers of completely made up, but they capture the basic point - it's all a matter of timing and chance of success and some people will prefer one path to another for a wide variety of reasons; and I prefer not to call out others for having one preference over the other.

I don't necessarily agree but its all fair, having said that, I would hope that you would agree that there is and has been too much focus on "making the playoffs" as opposed to actually becoming a great team. They are not one and the same thing. At no time during the Lou era has this been a great team. It over-achieved and did sort of great things for a couple of seasons under unusual circumstances but that was the high water mark and the cost of getting to and trying to maintain even that level has been way too high, leading to where we are now: Not good enough to do anything of note and not bad enough to be able to tank with a lot of bad contracts and few, if any, high end prospects, not mention one of the worst AHL teams in memory.

As to rebuild vs retool and all of the shades in between, whatever verbiage you want to embrace, trying to finesse our way out this mess will only lead to more mediocrity. Trying to build around Barzal, Horvat, Dobson when the actually great teams of recent years featured Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, or MacKinnon, Rantanan, Makar, or Tchachuk, Barkov, Ekblad or Eichel, Stone, Petrangiello. Hopefully you see my point, our guys are not in that class and so the notion that they will form a championship core is willful blindness IMO. Great teams need generational players and I don't know how this team in this market gets them other than tearing it down and trying to build it back up from the studs. Sadly, and I know it was a long time ago and a lot has changed, the fact remains that the only time in it's more than 50 year history that this team and organization was ever great was when they built it from the ground up.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

Laviolette gonna Laviolette.

 

[seabass45]

Philly had lotto ball luck not too earlier than NYR and got nothing out of it. So, lotto balls are not guarantees either.

I dunno how much to chalk that up to injuries or player not being that good in the first place.

This isn’t great though:

 

[Chockey22]

I don't necessarily agree but its all fair, having said that, I would hope that you would agree that there is and has been too much focus on "making the playoffs" as opposed to actually becoming a great team. They are not one and the same thing. At no time during the Lou era has this been a great team. It over-achieved and did sort of great things for a couple of seasons under unusual circumstances but that was the high water mark and the cost of getting to and trying to maintain even that level has been way too high, leading to where we are now: Not good enough to do anything of note and not bad enough to be able to tank with a lot of bad contracts and few, if any, high end prospects, not mention one of the worst AHL teams in memory.

As to rebuild vs retool and all of the shades in between, whatever verbiage you want to embrace, trying to finesse our way out this mess will only lead to more mediocrity. Trying to build around Barzal, Horvat, Dobson when the actually great teams of recent years featured Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, or MacKinnon, Rantanan, Makar, or Tchachuk, Barkov, Ekblad or Eichel, Stone, Petrangiello. Hopefully you see my point, our guys are not in that class and so the notion that they will form a championship core is willful blindness IMO. Great teams need generational players and I don't know how this team in this market gets them other than tearing it down and trying to build it back up from the studs. Sadly, and I know it was a long time ago and a lot has changed, the fact remains that the only time in it's more than 50 year history that this team and organization was ever great was when they built it from the ground up.

Oh, I totally agree. This team has been mediocre for a long time, including during the unexpected COVID runs. I don't think it was totally unreasonable to hope for progression from some of the younger guys to push the team into the upper tier, but it has been clear for a while that this team does not have enough high end talent to complete. The best we've added in that span is Horvat, and he is, at best, second tier. This season is just driving the point home that the team completely lacks the offensive talent needed to succeed, and there is no easy path to acquire that talent.

 

[IslesNorway]

Florida was able to re-tool, re-invent themselves pretty quickly

They have palm trees and low taxes, you know.

 

[LeapOnOver]

I don't necessarily agree but its all fair, having said that, I would hope that you would agree that there is and has been too much focus on "making the playoffs" as opposed to actually becoming a great team. They are not one and the same thing. At no time during the Lou era has this been a great team. It over-achieved and did sort of great things for a couple of seasons under unusual circumstances but that was the high water mark and the cost of getting to and trying to maintain even that level has been way too high, leading to where we are now: Not good enough to do anything of note and not bad enough to be able to tank with a lot of bad contracts and few, if any, high end prospects, not mention one of the worst AHL teams in memory.

As to rebuild vs retool and all of the shades in between, whatever verbiage you want to embrace, trying to finesse our way out this mess will only lead to more mediocrity. Trying to build around Barzal, Horvat, Dobson when the actually great teams of recent years featured Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, or MacKinnon, Rantanan, Makar, or Tchachuk, Barkov, Ekblad or Eichel, Stone, Petrangiello. Hopefully you see my point, our guys are not in that class and so the notion that they will form a championship core is willful blindness IMO. Great teams need generational players and I don't know how this team in this market gets them other than tearing it down and trying to build it back up from the studs. Sadly, and I know it was a long time ago and a lot has changed, the fact remains that the only time in it's more than 50 year history that this team and organization was ever great was when they built it from the ground up.

If you are going to count one-offs like Colorado, Vegas and Florida, then you have to concede that there are teams that have won cups that didn't have players like that, like St. Louis. I do agree they you need extensive talent for a multi-winning championship, but, only three teams on that list have that and it's very rare. I think that goal is nice, but a lofty one. It starts with just winning one.

 

[Glory Days]

I marvel at the unbridled optimism about how quickly people think this can be turned around. This organization is about as poorly positioned as any in the league to do what you suggest. We have just ok talent to trade, all with bad, difficult to move contracts and one of the worst prospect pipelines. Additionally, while Barzal and Horvat are good players, they are not elite and are not cornerstone talent. They just aren't. Sorokin? Maybe, but predicting goalie futures is voodoo, especially ones who have to play behind a bad team (and horrendous PK) for several years. How does that add up to a quck turnaround? You think other teams are looking to help us? Do you think that whoever we do pick in the draft with whatever picks we currently have and the ones we might axquire are going to become instantly productive NHL talent ready to compete for a championship in a few years. You, and the others who have responded, are simply ignoring where we are starting from.

Obviously we are each entitled to our opinion but I don’t see why a new GM can’t point this team in the right direction in the next 2-3 years. Nelson, Palms, Lee and Pageau will all be off the books by the end of next season if not sooner. An Engvall buyout doesn’t cost much. Those moves free up about $25M of cap. Last years draft was good as the Isles prospects ranking is now in the low 20’s. Adding more picks for Nelson and Palms coupled with another good draft could push the Isles prospect rankings to the mid teens. That gives a new GM a lot to work with.

 

[TeamKidd]

this season has always been the beginning of the transitional time for the isles. all you needed to do was look at our cap situation. money comes off at the end of this year and next. Anyone who is or will be a FA this or next year should be sold off and i'd also let it be known that someone like barzal or dobson can be had for a significant overpayment.

I also sincerely believe that the ownership group has too much respect for LL to fire him outright. he may 'decide to leave' at the end of the year, but i doubt he'll be tossed out. despite all the mediocrity it wouldnt be a good look for the organization.

now....would he actually sell off it he's still here? really hard to say. too much of what he has done has not worked out. too many ancillary pieces are on horribly long contracts and that was done with the eye towards elevating the club in the short term... that didnt happen. so now we got all the bad with none of the good.

i really dont see how this team gets competitive without some true luck, which we never seem to get.

 

[MarsTBOW]

Varlamov to LTIR gets enough cash for Duclair to return. What happens when varlamov returns or are we expecting an announcement next month he’s done for the year?

A turnaround is going to be tough but to have to rely on Helberg every fourth start is a concern

What "Turnaround"?
I think what we see is what we get if nothing changes personnel wise...

 

[leeroggy]

Thanks Stefan, I was trying to find this:

If there is one thing to fault Sorokin on, as well as on Varly, is that these numbers are pretty bad. He didn't compare it to other teams, but last year, we were definitely near the bottom on this too.

And if anyone has a shot chart on the goals scored against them, I'd put money on a lot of them being stick-side between the blocker and shoulder. There's something there that teams might have seen on film, plus they tend to be when Mayfield is trying for a block but is screening too much.

 

[bromanagro]

They need a statement game. A game where they lineup is healthy and they are able to score on the Power play and they win big. If they do that...they have a chance to salvage the season and give fans something to look forward to.

 

[periferal]

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

Their scouts seem to be terrible. Other than unearthing some amazing goalies late in drafts, they cannot seem to identify and pick quality/elite players with their other picks. Been this way for years. Dylan McIlrath anyone?

That said while they were building this version of the rangers, they completely missed on adding toughness, grit, and leadership. This is was Rempe was a fan favorite of theirs. He can't play hockey be he represented something they were seriously lacking.

They've basically been carried by Shesterkin and when their top end talent hits (like on the PP). Goodrow was one of their character guys so when they dumped him it was the first straw. Then Trouba (their captain) was next.

Now they're running on fumes and leaving Shesterkin out to dry. An elite goalie can certainly carry a team, but not if the team totally folds in front of him. That's what's happening.

 

[periferal]

Florida was able to re-tool, re-invent themselves pretty quickly

If you're attempting to make an apples to apples comparison between the Panthers and Isles - Don't.

While their GM was leverging the future to add top end/elite/great players like Reinhart, Bennett, and Tkachuck...Our GM was leverging the future to add players like Pageau, Palmeiri, and Romanov. You may even love all those players, but the talent difference is massive. Then add in Trotz leaving and it was game over right at that moment.

That's why the panthers have a Cup and are contenders again this season...While we're going to be a lottery team.

 

[periferal]

They need a statement game. A game where they lineup is healthy and they are able to score on the Power play and they win big. If they do that...they have a chance to salvage the season and give fans something to look forward to.

If everything went right...What do you think this team has to look forward to? They're not getting near a Cup until significant changes are made to the front office and roster. Until that time any fan that thinks there's hope is just plugged into the Matrix.

 

[Torrey Redux]

If you are going to count one-offs like Colorado, Vegas and Florida, then you have to concede that there are teams that have won cups that didn't have players like that, like St. Louis. I do agree they you need extensive talent for a multi-winning championship, but, only three teams on that list have that and it's very rare. I think that goal is nice, but a lofty one. It starts with just winning one.

St Louis is the one off, not the other way around.

 

[miscs75]

They need a statement game. A game where they lineup is healthy and they are able to score on the Power play and they win big. If they do that...they have a chance to salvage the season and give fans something to look forward to.

They had that October 14th vs Colorado. It’s been a mess ever since.