Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[Chockey22]

Bull shit. Team sucks in front of him. Defense sucks in front of him. PK is 32nd in the league. Worst. On a solid team he is top 5 easily.

I get that Isles fans will have different opinions on different players, and I completely respect those who think Sorokin is top 5. I happen to disagree by a little (still think he's top half in the league), and recognize I'm in the minority on this. In any case, it still doesn't have any bearing on my general point about whether it makes sense to keep him IF the team opts to do a full rebuild.

 

[12Dog]

Florida was able to re-tool, re-invent themselves pretty quickly

 

[Chockey22]

I think I can speak for anyone advocating for a tear down, not one of us is harboring any illusions of guaranteed success. We know that rebuilds are risky and require a combination of smarts and luck, so please, stop writing "there are no guarantees" or printing lists of draft busts. We know.

Here's what is guaranteed; doing what Lou has been doing and will seemingly continue to do is a guarantee of continued failure. To be a great team you need cornerstone elite players and being a middle of the pack team ad infinitum, unattractive to FAs and unable to draft in top 5 position ever, you will never get you there.

But I think that's their point - there is plenty of room between complete tear down and continuing doing what Lou is doing. We all know that continuing to run it back all the time as Lou has done is a guarantee of continual failure; the question is whether a full rebuild is the only way or if there is a path to contention that falls short of a full rebuild but not continuing the current path.

The other point with emphasizing that there are no guarantees is simply to say this is all a game of playing probabilities.
Let's say hypothetically that a full rebuild takes 5 years and has a 20% of success (Meaning annual contention for the Cup over a sustained period).
Now let's say there is a 2 year retool path that has a 10% chance of success.
I recognize these numbers of completely made up, but they capture the basic point - it's all a matter of timing and chance of success and some people will prefer one path to another for a wide variety of reasons; and I prefer not to call out others for having one preference over the other.

 

[seabass45]

The Rangers tore it down, rebuilt, and here they are scrambling again after not winning anything.

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

 

[miscs75]

Are you describing Hutton or Duclair?

Hutton. If they move on from Mayfield magically, I’d expect him to be the 3rd pairing RD until the seasons over just to fill a void. He’s better defensively than Bolduc and Salo were and RHD are always tougher to find.

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

On top of that, all us Islanders fans are enjoying the soap opera with a bucket of popcorn. It’s going to be fun watching Chris Drury vs the Rangers players and what mess it will become.

 

[gordie43]

Varlamov to LTIR gets enough cash for Duclair to return. What happens when varlamov returns or are we expecting an announcement next month he’s done for the year?

A turnaround is going to be tough but to have to rely on Helberg every fourth start is a concern

 

[LeapOnOver]

Pretty sure Sorokin has a no movement clause, and can’t be waived or traded or sent down or anything unless he wants to. FYI for those in the trade Sorokin section.

I don't think any of that matters at this point. Sorokin is not someone we would trade because he's not living up to his contract. If you tell Sorokin you are about to sell of established vets for a rebuild/retool, he'll probably agree to get traded to a contender.

I love Sorokin. At times, he seems like the only bright spot. I'm not sure I can fully commit to trading him, but I think it's easy to forget his age as he came over so late from Russia. If we do go the rebuild retool route, it's unlikely he'll be in his prime when we are able to compete again. If Isles do move on from LL and commit to a rebuild, you'd have to consider trading him.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Varlamov to LTIR gets enough cash for Duclair to return. What happens when varlamov returns or are we expecting an announcement next month he’s done for the year?

A turnaround is going to be tough but to have to rely on Helberg every fourth start is a concern

Hogberg is not a bad goalie, imo. I'm glad he's back in NA trying to prove himself. I think an Isles turnaround is least dependent upon goaltending. Special teams has broken this season. It's pathetic how bad it is. In a corporate setting, anybody in charge of that would be long gone. I refuse to believe personnel is the issue. It's management. It's staggering how poorly run it is. They don't even take players off the PP to try anything new, like other coaches would do to send a message. The PK, there really should just be an option to give an automatic goal on the PK so Isles have more time to get the goal back.

 

[Throttle]

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

Philly had lotto ball luck not too earlier than NYR and got nothing out of it. So, lotto balls are not guarantees either.

 

[Torrey Redux]

But I think that's their point - there is plenty of room between complete tear down and continuing doing what Lou is doing. We all know that continuing to run it back all the time as Lou has done is a guarantee of continual failure; the question is whether a full rebuild is the only way or if there is a path to contention that falls short of a full rebuild but not continuing the current path.

The other point with emphasizing that there are no guarantees is simply to say this is all a game of playing probabilities.
Let's say hypothetically that a full rebuild takes 5 years and has a 20% of success (Meaning annual contention for the Cup over a sustained period).
Now let's say there is a 2 year retool path that has a 10% chance of success.
I recognize these numbers of completely made up, but they capture the basic point - it's all a matter of timing and chance of success and some people will prefer one path to another for a wide variety of reasons; and I prefer not to call out others for having one preference over the other.

I don't necessarily agree but its all fair, having said that, I would hope that you would agree that there is and has been too much focus on "making the playoffs" as opposed to actually becoming a great team. They are not one and the same thing. At no time during the Lou era has this been a great team. It over-achieved and did sort of great things for a couple of seasons under unusual circumstances but that was the high water mark and the cost of getting to and trying to maintain even that level has been way too high, leading to where we are now: Not good enough to do anything of note and not bad enough to be able to tank with a lot of bad contracts and few, if any, high end prospects, not mention one of the worst AHL teams in memory.

As to rebuild vs retool and all of the shades in between, whatever verbiage you want to embrace, trying to finesse our way out this mess will only lead to more mediocrity. Trying to build around Barzal, Horvat, Dobson when the actually great teams of recent years featured Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, or MacKinnon, Rantanan, Makar, or Tchachuk, Barkov, Ekblad or Eichel, Stone, Petrangiello. Hopefully you see my point, our guys are not in that class and so the notion that they will form a championship core is willful blindness IMO. Great teams need generational players and I don't know how this team in this market gets them other than tearing it down and trying to build it back up from the studs. Sadly, and I know it was a long time ago and a lot has changed, the fact remains that the only time in it's more than 50 year history that this team and organization was ever great was when they built it from the ground up.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

They’re an interesting case. Gifted two high picks, but seem to have missed out on a true cornerstone piece. Gifted a top prospect who didn’t want to play elsewhere. Gifted one of the top UFAs in recent memory. Gifted a top RD who forced his way to NY. And on top of that, drafted maybe a top 3 goaltender of this generation. And THIS is what they look like now? It’s insane.

Laviolette gonna Laviolette.

 

[seabass45]

Philly had lotto ball luck not too earlier than NYR and got nothing out of it. So, lotto balls are not guarantees either.

I dunno how much to chalk that up to injuries or player not being that good in the first place.

This isn’t great though:

 

[Chockey22]

I don't necessarily agree but its all fair, having said that, I would hope that you would agree that there is and has been too much focus on "making the playoffs" as opposed to actually becoming a great team. They are not one and the same thing. At no time during the Lou era has this been a great team. It over-achieved and did sort of great things for a couple of seasons under unusual circumstances but that was the high water mark and the cost of getting to and trying to maintain even that level has been way too high, leading to where we are now: Not good enough to do anything of note and not bad enough to be able to tank with a lot of bad contracts and few, if any, high end prospects, not mention one of the worst AHL teams in memory.

As to rebuild vs retool and all of the shades in between, whatever verbiage you want to embrace, trying to finesse our way out this mess will only lead to more mediocrity. Trying to build around Barzal, Horvat, Dobson when the actually great teams of recent years featured Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crosby, Malkin, Letang or Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, or MacKinnon, Rantanan, Makar, or Tchachuk, Barkov, Ekblad or Eichel, Stone, Petrangiello. Hopefully you see my point, our guys are not in that class and so the notion that they will form a championship core is willful blindness IMO. Great teams need generational players and I don't know how this team in this market gets them other than tearing it down and trying to build it back up from the studs. Sadly, and I know it was a long time ago and a lot has changed, the fact remains that the only time in it's more than 50 year history that this team and organization was ever great was when they built it from the ground up.

Oh, I totally agree. This team has been mediocre for a long time, including during the unexpected COVID runs. I don't think it was totally unreasonable to hope for progression from some of the younger guys to push the team into the upper tier, but it has been clear for a while that this team does not have enough high end talent to complete. The best we've added in that span is Horvat, and he is, at best, second tier. This season is just driving the point home that the team completely lacks the offensive talent needed to succeed, and there is no easy path to acquire that talent.