Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2024-25: Re-Tool, Re-Group, Re-Mix, Re-Build

[gordie43]

Lou eats pizza with a knife and fork.

What is wrong with all you people?! Have you all gone mad?!!

 

[Big L]

Lou eats pizza with a knife and fork.

Question: if you’re unlucky enough to have pizza that’s been square cut, do you need the knife and fork to eat the square cuts?

 

[miscs75]

I tore my groin once, his reaction was exactly what mine was

It 100% looked groin. I know someone who tore or pulled their pectineus (forget which he did) and it was similar. While leg was black/blue/green/brown/yellow/red/purple. Took like 3 months to come back to squat to depth comfortably again with weight.

Lou eats pizza with a knife and fork.

Lou is not the Rangers former mayor Warren Wilhelm Jr aka Bill Deblasio. He’s more respectable.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

Question: if you’re unlucky enough to have pizza that’s been square cut, do you need the knife and fork to eat the square cuts?

That's not pizza, so who gives a f***.

 

[LeapOnOver]

It's important to remember that it's only been 6 games, and although it seems like much of the same it's really quite a bit different under the hood.

Without looking it up I think we were getting outshot by an average of 5 or 6 shots a game last year under Lambert. Right now we're outshooting teams by 8 shots, and that doesn't include all the posts they've been hitting. You outshoot the opposing team by 30% and you're going to win more often than not - especially with Vezina caliber net minding behind it.

The thing that has been neutralizing them is that they're shooting like 6.5% on the season. To put that into perspective, no team has had a shooting percentage that low in the last 25 years. League average has been around 10% for the last few years, and that's where the Isles usually land. It's the kind of stat that always normalizes with a larger sample size.

Had they been shooting 10% to this point they're probably 4-1-1 and we're all jumping for joy. So I know it feels like the sky is falling because of the way the losses have happened, but unless you actually think they're going to be shutout every other game for the rest of the year things should be fine.

The defense is humming and the attempts are there. You are right that the shooting % will probably normalize. I'm not discouraged by what I see and don't agree with our local grumpy old man @Throttle about boring hockey. Last night was pretty entertaining as far as losses go.

My concern is always whether this will be a consistent showing by the Isles and if they can stay healthy, because the depth his razor thin. The latter is already rearing its ugly head.

 

[impaaaaaact]

The defense is humming and the attempts are there. You are right that the shooting % will probably normalize. I'm not discouraged by what I see and don't agree with our local grumpy old man @Throttle about boring hockey. Last night was pretty entertaining as far as losses go.

My concern is always whether this will be a consistent showing by the Isles and if they can stay healthy, because the depth his razor thin. The latter is already rearing its ugly head.

I mean actually I think the forward depth is pretty good… they have Fasching, Karlstrom and some guy named Engvall still in Bridgeport who have all played a fair amount of NHL games, plus Martin whenever they want him. Left side D behind Cholowski there’s Bolduc as #8. RHD is maybe thin with only Hutton there, but we did get Bortuzzo for a 7th last year so seems like something that can be easily rectified.

TBH I think Reilly has been pretty flat so far. I wouldn’t mind seeing Cholo for a game and seeing if it sparks anything, esp on the pp2

 

[Top Corner]

I mean actually I think the forward depth is pretty good… they have Fasching, Karlstrom and some guy named Engvall still in Bridgeport who have all played a fair amount of NHL games, plus Martin whenever they want him. Left side D behind Cholowski there’s Bolduc as #8. RHD is maybe thin with only Hutton there, but we did get Bortuzzo for a 7th last year so seems like something that can be easily rectified.

TBH I think Reilly has been pretty flat so far. I wouldn’t mind seeing Cholo for a game and seeing if it sparks anything, esp on the pp2

From what I seen in preseason, Cholo should be in regularly. Not sure why he hasn’t seen a game

 

[seafoam]

From what I seen in preseason, Cholo should be in regularly. Not sure why he hasn’t seen a game

I’m surprised they haven’t tried 11/7 at any point, especially now with the injury to Duclair and Gauthier off the team.

Pelech has been hit-or-miss and Reilly (as someone else said) has been flat. The longer Cholowski doesn’t get into a game, the more he’s being set up to fail.

With the back to back upcoming, we may finally see CholoCop but getting your first game against the speedy Devils or
defending Cup champion Panthers will be a tall task for him (should it happen).

I have not been impressed with Roy’s lineup decisions thus far. Lee has been their best LW (which is a problem in itself), but at some point you have to play your best players the most and reward them for the play. The same goes for players who are underperforming.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I’m surprised they haven’t tried 11/7 at any point, especially now with the injury to Duclair and Gauthier off the team.

Pelech has been hit-or-miss and Reilly (as someone else said) has been flat. The longer Cholowski doesn’t get into a game, the more he’s being set up to fail.

With the back to back upcoming, we may finally see CholoCop but getting your first game against the speedy Devils or
defending Cup champion Panthers will be a tall task for him (should it happen).

I have not been impressed with Roy’s lineup decisions thus far. Lee has been their best LW (which is a problem in itself), but at some point you have to play your best players the most and reward them for the play. The same goes for players who are underperforming.

I suggested they should put Lee back on the top line with Duclair out and some people didn’t like it, but he’s looked noticeably quicker to me. Maybe that’s a result of playing less minutes, but he looks way better than Tsyplakov for sure

 

[seafoam]

I suggested they should put Lee back on the top line with Duclair out and some people didn’t like it, but he’s looked noticeably quicker to me. Maybe that’s a result of playing less minutes, but he looks way better than Tsyplakov for sure

At the end of the day, Lee was one of the best forwards last playoffs, has carried that into the season, and is the most experienced LW they have.

 

[leeroggy]

I have not been impressed with Roy’s lineup decisions thus far. Lee has been their best LW (which is a problem in itself), but at some point you have to play your best players the most and reward them for the play. The same goes for players who are underperforming.

Perception is not always reality

 

[MJF]

From what I seen in preseason, Cholo should be in regularly. Not sure why he hasn’t seen a game

In place of Reilly? He's the only one I'd consider sitting.

Cholowski hasn't dressed probably because Roy says he's satisfied with our possession game and the way we're getting the puck quickly up ice. However I agree that he should get a start simply because every player should get an occasional start just to shake the rust off.

 

[MJF]

Perception is not always reality

View attachment 920827

When do they score actual goals?

This is basically the same group of non-finishers as last season. They can play Roy's clear the D zone faster system, Lambert's up-tempo system, Trotz's box out in front of our net system. It doesn't matter. If Roy or anyone else is waiting for the damn to burst and the goals to start pouring in I guarantee you it won't happen. They will get hot for a time but it won't last. It's who these guys are.

 

[seafoam]

Perception is not always reality

View attachment 920827

Barzal’s ice time is way too high. Guy needs a reality check. Demote him to a checking center and strap Cizikas and Wahlstrom on his wings.

I’m more than happy keeping Horvat and Nelson as the 1/2 punch. Pageau needs to be the 4C with Holmstrom.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Trying to put my thoughts about the possession numbers so far into the crudest full season implication terms. I'm no statistician and there's obvious more factors here, but:

- League shooting percentage has been around 10% for the past 5 years or so. That means league save % should be right around 90% or .900.

- The Islanders are averaging 33 shots a game, third in the league. If average shooting % is a sticky stat, they should expect to land right around 3.3 goals per game if they kept that up for the rest of the season.

- The Islanders are allowing 25.3 shots per game - however, teams that face the Islanders to not face a league average of goaltending over time.
They're going to face Sorokin and Varlamov who have posted a 91.3% save percentage in their 4 years as a tandem, meaning that teams have had an 8.7% shooting percentage against the Isles over that time, agnostic of coach or system.

- 25.3 shots at a 8.7% clip is 2.2 goals a game. So with the possession numbers they've posted, it should lead to them expecting about 3.3 goals a game and giving up about 2.2 goals a game over a full season, which is exactly a 2:1 ratio (didn't expect it to work out that cleanly!)

- If you're expecting to win games at a 2:1 ratio over a full season where there are 164 points available, that would put you on track for 108 points, which would have been good for 5th in the conference and 8th in the league last season.

Again, super crude numbers here, and not accounting for X factors... but I think we are seeing what Roy's plan is. Combine dominant possession numbers with above average (and potentially elite) goaltending. It makes a lot of sense when you consider the strengths of our best players, and our lack of a game breaking scorer. Barzal usually in the top 3 in possession metrics and Sorokin usually in the top three in Save %. Puck bounces a different way a couple of times and I think we're all a bit more optimistic.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Barzal’s ice time is way too high. Guy needs a reality check. Demote him to a checking center and strap Cizikas and Wahlstrom on his wings.

I’m more than happy keeping Horvat and Nelson as the 1/2 punch. Pageau needs to be the 4C with Holmstrom.

There's a couple of reasons why it's wild high right now (top ten among forwards). Isles have had a TON of power plays and haven't scored on them. He's out for for most of them so that's going to pad the minutes.

The other reason is because Roy has really been sheltering the third line... and now that the fourth line is Foudy, Wahlstrom and Maclean you can expect them to get even less minutes than they already were. I think the TOI will come down a little when they stop getting 4 powerplays a game, but the 5V5 time might even increase in the coming weeks unless Roy can figure out checking lines that he trusts.

 

[MJF]

Trying to put my thoughts about the possession numbers so far into the crudest full season implication terms. I'm no statistician and there's obvious more factors here, but:

- League shooting percentage has been around 10% for the past 5 years or so. That means league save % should be right around 90% or .900.

- The Islanders are averaging 33 shots a game, third in the league. If average shooting % is a sticky stat, they should expect to land right around 3.3 goals per game if they kept that up for the rest of the season.

- The Islanders are allowing 25.3 shots per game - however, teams that face the Islanders to not face a league average of goaltending over time.
They're going to face Sorokin and Varlamov who have posted a 91.3% save percentage in their 4 years as a tandem, meaning that teams have had an 8.7% shooting percentage against the Isles over that time, agnostic of coach or system.

- 25.3 shots at a 8.7% clip is 2.2 goals a game. So with the possession numbers they've posted, it should lead to them expecting about 3.3 goals a game and giving up about 2.2 goals a game over a full season, which is exactly a 2:1 ratio (didn't expect it to work out that cleanly!)

- If you're expecting to win games at a 2:1 ratio over a full season where there are 164 points available, that would put you on track for 108 points, which would have been good for 5th in the conference and 8th in the league last season.

Again, super crude numbers here, and not accounting for X factors... but I think we are seeing what Roy's plan is. Combine dominant possession numbers with above average (and potentially elite) goaltending. It makes a lot of sense when you consider the strengths of our best players, and our lack of a game breaking scorer. Barzal usually in the top 3 in possession metrics and Sorokin usually in the top three in Save %. Puck bounces a different way a couple of times and I think we're all a bit more optimistic.

Check the number of high danger chances. I’m curious if they bear this out. The Islanders are easy to box out in the O zone. They don’t fight for the inches. Not much physicality in these guys.

 

[WangMustGo]

Barzal’s ice time is way too high. Guy needs a reality check. Demote him to a checking center and strap Cizikas and Wahlstrom on his wings.

I’m more than happy keeping Horvat and Nelson as the 1/2 punch. Pageau needs to be the 4C with Holmstrom.

You think putting Wahlstrom and Cizikas with Barzal will help the lack of scoring? Barzal hasn’t been great by any stretch of the imagination, but he is still the best forward on the team. Strapping him with 2 plugs is not going to help. If anything shuffle the lines around. Maybe even put him back to center.

The problem is Lou has never found adequate talent on the top lines. Ideally Barzal is your 2-3 best forward. Here he doesn’t have anyone remotely close to as talented to play with.

 

[seafoam]

You think putting Wahlstrom and Cizikas with Barzal will help the lack of scoring? Barzal hasn’t been great by any stretch of the imagination, but he is still the best forward on the team. Strapping him with 2 plugs is not going to help. If anything shuffle the lines around. Maybe even put him back to center.

The problem is Lou has never found adequate talent on the top lines. Ideally Barzal is your 2-3 best forward. Here he doesn’t have anyone remotely close to as talented to play with.

I think it will help Barzal score. Cizikas grinds for pucks and isn't afraid to go to the dirty areas, Wahlstrom can find space to get fed pucks in high scoring areas.

 

[Chockey22]

Barzal’s ice time is way too high. Guy needs a reality check. Demote him to a checking center and strap Cizikas and Wahlstrom on his wings.

I’m more than happy keeping Horvat and Nelson as the 1/2 punch. Pageau needs to be the 4C with Holmstrom.

This is a surprising reaction; I've seen nothing from Horvat or Nelson that warrants them getting more ice time than Barzal. I get the frustration with Barzal, but am perplexed that Horvat and Nelson aren't getting the same heat. They've been terrible; at least Barzal actually gains the zone and sets up his teammates for scoring chances, almost all of which they (meaning Horvat) have missed

 

[Chockey22]

Check the number of high danger chances. I’m curious if they bear this out. The Islanders are easy to box out in the O zone. They don’t fight for the inches. Not much physicality in these guys.

Overall the Isles produce more high danger chances than they give up; they just convert less often. One can read that as bad luck that will change, or as a sign that we lack elite finishers. It's probably a bit of both.

 

[WangMustGo]

I think it will help Barzal score. Cizikas grinds for pucks and isn't afraid to go to the dirty areas, Wahlstrom can find space to get fed pucks in high scoring areas.

I just don’t see how that helps Barzal. Maybe Cizikas on one wing, but I wouldn’t put Wahlstrom anywhere near Barzal. Wahlstrom is too slow, takes a lot of bad penalties and has no hockey IQ.

 

[MJF]

Overall the Isles produce more high danger chances than they give up; they just convert less often. One can read that as bad luck that will change, or as a sign that we lack elite finishers. It's probably a bit of both.

Thanks.