Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[MJF]

And almost exactly a year later, here we are...

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Change is a comin' (and it better f***ing be comin')

Prophetic.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

It came this year too . . . Romanov, Sorokin 60 games, Holmstrom, Fasching, Horvat, Bolduc, Aho, Engvall . . . they've all been this year's change

Goodbye Bailey, Martin, Mayfield and maybe Pageau. Buyout Bailey if needed; Pageau will be in demand . . . move Casey up to 3C and Durandeau at 4C and find a scorer . . . maybe Palmieri also is a trade chip? His NTC doesn't kick in until next season if I read Capfriendly correctly.

Do you think Isles would prefer to move a pick with Bailey rather than buyout?

I was looking around league and he is guy the Hawks would probably have interest in taking on in offseason for asset. Hawks have $42M+ in projected cap room this offseason and no significant RFA's to sign

If Isles are willing to part with a 2024 2nd or 2025 2nd the Hawks would probably jump all over it

 

[leeroggy]

Do you think Isles would prefer to move a pick with Bailey rather than buyout?

I was looking around league and he is guy the Hawks would probably have interest in taking on in offseason for asset. Hawks have $42M+ in projected cap room this offseason and no significant RFA's to sign

If Isles are willing to part with a 2024 2nd or 2025 2nd the Hawks would probably jump all over it

Why not take Robin Salo instead of a pick? He's pretty much NHL ready and is facing a logjam at LD here

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Why not take Robin Salo instead of a pick? He's pretty much NHL ready and is facing a logjam at LD here

Hawks have logjam at LD in system as well

NHL/AHL level

Wyatt Kaiser (2020 3rd)
Isaak Phillips (2020 5th)
Alex Vlasic (2019 2nd)
Flip Roos (UDFA)

Kaiser is finishing out year with Hawks and its expected 2 or 3 of these guys will be fulltime with Hawks next year

Next wave

Kevin Korchinski (2022 1st)
Nolan Allan (2021 1st)
Taige Harding (2021 3rd)
Ethan Del Mastro (2021 4th)

Korchinski, Allan and Del Mastro all played on Canada's WJC blueline this past tournament

Also our GM seems more interested in acquiring picks to draft his own guys then prospects in his recent trading

He also has talked of stacking up future drafts and traded for picks in those drafts

Hawks coming drafts rounds 1-3

2023 Hawks 1st
2023 Lightning 1st
2023 Hawks 2nd
2023 Senators 2nd
2023 Rangers 2nd (Becomes 2024 protected 1st or 2025 1st if Rangers make ECF)
2023 Lightning 2nd
2023 Hawks 3rd
2023 Stars 3rd

2024 Hawks 1st
2024 Lightning 1st
2024 Hawks 2nd
2024 Canucks 2nd
2024 Hawks 3rd
2024 Senators 3rd

2025 Hawks 1st
2025 Leafs 1st
2025 Hawks 2nd
2025 Stars 2nd
2025 Hawkd 3rd

They also have Leafs 2026 2nd

 

[leeroggy]

Hawks have logjam at LD in system as well

NHL/AHL level

Wyatt Kaiser (2020 3rd)
Isaak Phillips (2020 5th)
Alex Vlasic (2019 2nd)
Flip Roos (UDFA)

Kaiser is finishing out year with Hawks and its expected 2 or 3 of these guys will be fulltime with Hawks next year

Next wave

Kevin Korchinski (2022 1st)
Nolan Allan (2021 1st)
Taige Harding (2021 3rd)
Ethan Del Mastro (2021 4th)

Korchinski, Allan and Del Mastro all played on Canada's WJC blueline this past tournament

Also our GM seems more interested in acquiring picks to draft his own guys then prospects in his recent trading

How about Something bigger?

Bailey, Wahlstrom for Athanasiou?

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

How about Something bigger?

Bailey, Wahlstrom for Athanasiou?

AA is UFA this offseason.

And think the shine has worn off of Wahlstrom at this point. I have now seen multiple times Islander fans offer him up in trades recently

That is never good sign for a young former 1st rounder

 

[SI]

Do you think Isles would prefer to move a pick with Bailey rather than buyout?

I was looking around league and he is guy the Hawks would probably have interest in taking on in offseason for asset. Hawks have $42M+ in projected cap room this offseason and no significant RFA's to sign

If Isles are willing to part with a 2024 2nd or 2025 2nd the Hawks would probably jump all over it

I think Isles and Hawks make great trade partners this summer. BTW, It has been my opinion Hawks win the lottery, but that is a conversation for another day.

I’d like to run by these potential moves - first Bailey.

Bailey for Mrazek? Is Mrazek a potential buyout for Hawks? He will make more actual $ than Bailey next year.

If not, does a Bailey for Blackwell or Bailey for Dickinson work? With no assets.

Next Palmieri for 2024 3rd and 2023 5th?
this is a similar deal that Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Maybe the picks could both be mid round picks

Next, would be 2023 2nd (CHI) for RFA Oliver Wahlstrom?

I still like Wahlstrom a lot and I believe there are fans who are frustrated with his play away from the puck. I think he’d be a good fit for the Hawks and a young core. I’d prefer to Keep Wahlstrom and move Palmieri

 

[Seph]

I think Isles and Hawks make great trade partners this summer. BTW, It has been my opinion Hawks win the lottery, but that is a conversation for another day.

I’d like to run by these potential moves - first Bailey.

Bailey for Mrazek? Is Mrazek a potential buyout for Hawks? He will make more actual $ than Bailey next year.

If not, does a Bailey for Blackwell or Bailey for Dickinson work? With no assets.

Next Palmieri for 2024 3rd and 2023 5th?
this is a similar deal that Seattle paid for Bjorkstrand. Maybe the picks could both be mid round picks

Next, would be 2023 2nd (CHI) for RFA Oliver Wahlstrom?

I still like Wahlstrom a lot and I believe there are fans who are frustrated with his play away from the puck. I think he’d be a good fit for the Hawks and a young core. I’d prefer to Keep Wahlstrom and move Palmieri

If the Hawks want to get rid of Mrazek, that'd be a pretty sensible deal for both teams. Bailey's buyout would only be ~2.3m spread out over two years, so they'd save either ~$2m on Mrazek's salary or ~0.6m on Mrazek's buyout. Mrazek's caphit on a buy out would only be about ~0.9m the first year and ~1.5m the 2nd, which would be very manageable. Even assuming they get Bedard, the Hawks are still probably at least 1 more season from being competitive, so Bailey's higher caphit on the buyout would be more manageable, and since his salary is low they might even decide to keep him for season since his actual salary is only ~0.6m more than Mrazek's buyout costs.

But I don't know if the Hawks necessarily see Mrazek as a negative asset like that for it to be worth it to them. I'm guessing it probably depends on how ready they feel a younger guy like Stauber or Soderblom is, and if they want one to get more time in the NHL.

 

[IslesNorway]

Is Mrazek so bad he wouldn't be an option as a backup for Isles? His caphit compared to Varlamov is lower, even if spending close to $4 million on a bakcup is a lot of money.

Palmieri, Bailey for Mrazek and a low pick?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The next Soshnikov heading to Long Island???

 

[saintunspecified]

The next Soshnikov heading to Long Island???

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I looked at some of his videos. Yeah, he's got some pretty sweet skills, but he's got all of Iskhakov's weaknesses (tiny, and not explosive) while not having Iskhakov's commitment to playing in North America. I'd much prefer giving Iskhakov a real shot than signing anyone like Tkachev..

 

[xECK29x]

The next Soshnikov heading to Long Island???

View attachment 686604

Very real chance IMO

 

[periferal]

The next Soshnikov heading to Long Island???

View attachment 686604

Is he no longer Kings property? If so has there been a rumor about him signing with the Islanders? I've seen nothing.

Also how would the Isles even afford him with 7M in cap space and the following free agents:

Mayfield
Engvall
Varlamov
Fasching
Parise
Bolduc

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Is he no longer Kings property? If so has there been a rumor about him signing with the Islanders? I've seen nothing.

Nor have I...

I only posted that because Lou hired the guru "get the Euro guys signed" dude away from Toronto last year and I felt this fella seems like the type of player he'd be wooing over.

The only European guy for the big club I'd be REALLY excited about seeing signed is Häman Aktell, who I feel can step in right away and has upside to be a top 4 Dman. His team is now in the SHL final. Against Kuhnhackl's team.

But he's a lefty and he'll be real smart to sign with a team that can guarantee a top 6 spot off the bat. He's looking good enough for that.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Also how would the Isles even afford him with 7M in cap space and the following free agents:

Mayfield
Engvall
Varlamov
Fasching
Parise
Bolduc (RFA)

The four bolded are the ones we should want to keep around.

Bolduc just needs to be re-upped with the standard 10% increase of an RFA coming off his ELC.

Varlamov is basically a goner. I'd think.

I mean, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see him retained at something like 2 x 2.25 MM. He seems to like it here.

But sheesh, there's gotta be a better deal and gig out there for him.

And we'd be wiser in turning the #2 goalie into one of the smaller cost slots in the cap picture.

 

[leeroggy]

The four bolded are the ones we should want to keep around.

Bolduc just needs to be re-upped with the standard 10% increase of an RFA coming off his ELC.

Varlamov is basically a goner. I'd think.

I mean, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see him retained at something like 2 x 2.25 MM. He seems to like it here.

But sheesh, there's gotta be a better deal and gig out there for him.

And we'd be wiser in turning the #2 goalie into one of the smaller cost slots in the cap picture.

I would think Pittsburgh MIGHT have interest in Varly . . . let's hope Hextall isn't that smart

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Lou and Varly had a conversation when the his last contract was signed along the lines of "I'll pay you above market now, so if Sorokin proves to be a legit #1 you can have the option of being his backup at a reduced rate . . . if you can get a better contract at that point, I understand".

It's certainly a Lou thing to do.

 

[Throttle]

The four bolded are the ones we should want to keep around.

Bolduc just needs to be re-upped with the standard 10% increase of an RFA coming off his ELC.

Varlamov is basically a goner. I'd think.

I mean, I wouldn't be totally shocked to see him retained at something like 2 x 2.25 MM. He seems to like it here.

But sheesh, there's gotta be a better deal and gig out there for him.

And we'd be wiser in turning the #2 goalie into one of the smaller cost slots in the cap picture.

Varly has made ~ $60M, he’ll be a 35er contract this summer. He should probably have starter options: SJ, OTT, CLB, MON, CHI, etc.

Really depends on what he wants, no fan can know that. He’s gonna have to take a mighty discount for term/security and playing with his buddy. Or, he can make starter money for 2yrs with a number of teams and bounce around for the next 3-4 years like a Halak.

Something tells me he wants to continue to support Sorokin vs going somewhere else. And Lou wants that security too.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

Is Mrazek so bad he wouldn't be an option as a backup for Isles? His caphit compared to Varlamov is lower, even if spending close to $4 million on a bakcup is a lot of money.

Palmieri, Bailey for Mrazek and a low pick?

You want to trade what has arguably been our best offensive player for the past month as part of a package to get a backup goalie, and an average one at that? Huh!!!!!????

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

If the Hawks want to get rid of Mrazek, that'd be a pretty sensible deal for both teams. Bailey's buyout would only be ~2.3m spread out over two years, so they'd save either ~$2m on Mrazek's salary or ~0.6m on Mrazek's buyout. Mrazek's caphit on a buy out would only be about ~0.9m the first year and ~1.5m the 2nd, which would be very manageable. Even assuming they get Bedard, the Hawks are still probably at least 1 more season from being competitive, so Bailey's higher caphit on the buyout would be more manageable, and since his salary is low they might even decide to keep him for season since his actual salary is only ~0.6m more than Mrazek's buyout costs.

But I don't know if the Hawks necessarily see Mrazek as a negative asset like that for it to be worth it to them. I'm guessing it probably depends on how ready they feel a younger guy like Stauber or Soderblom is, and if they want one to get more time in the NHL.

Mrazek is plan to be #1 goalie next year again from all accounts

Hawks are in full rebuild and Mrazek is filler in net. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Hawks/Leafs hook up again with Hawks taking final year of Murray deal and go with Mrazek/Murray in net.

Hawks have 42M+ in cap room and will be looking to take salary dumps for picks not move out guy like Mrazek

 

[Seph]

Mrazek is plan to be #1 goalie next year again from all accounts

Hawks are in full rebuild and Mrazek is filler in net. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Hawks/Leafs hook up again with Hawks taking final year of Murray deal and go with Mrazek/Murray in net.

Hawks have 42M+ in cap room and will be looking to take salary dumps for picks not move out guy like Mrazek

Makes sense to me. I figured there was a decent chance they didn't view him as a negative, even if a lot of fans do. But yeah, I'd probably be fine with moving a 2024 2nd for the Hawks to take Bailey this summer.

 

[SI]

You want to trade what has arguably been our best offensive player for the past month as part of a package to get a backup goalie, and an average one at that? Huh!!!!!????

It's about clearing CAP space.
The deal allows the GM to bring other pieces like Tarasenko, Bertuzzi, or even Kane.

 

[IslesNorway]

You want to trade what has arguably been our best offensive player for the past month as part of a package to get a backup goalie, and an average one at that? Huh!!!!!????

Take one look at the Isles cap and tell us how to field a better team next season without shedding at least $10-12 million in overpaid, underperforming players?

 

[SI]

Is he no longer Kings property? If so has there been a rumor about him signing with the Islanders? I've seen nothing.

Also how would the Isles even afford him with 7M in cap space and the following free agents:

Mayfield
Engvall
Varlamov
Fasching
Parise
Bolduc

He is no longer the property of the Kings. If he does sign, I'm not sure what the signing would be, but I cannot imagine it is more than the league minimum. Below is a picture of the Isles with 22 man roster that leaves just pennies shy of 600k with a 83.5m Cap, which could be higher.

In the scenario, Varly is signed for 2/2.25, Engvall 3/3.5, and Mayfield 5/4.25, which IMO, is fair market value - I could be wrong.

So, yes in 83.5m scenario, they would be 175K shy of signing him at league minimum, but not impossible to shave here or there - i.e., could Mayfield, Engvall, and Varlamov all take a little bit less than described to sign another player at the league minimum.

That 23rd man could be Fasching OR Tkachev OR even Okulov at the league minimum.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I'm not sure how Lou will remove Bailey and his contract from this team.

I'm not sure a buyout makes sense.

I'm not sure what the ramifications of burying him in Bridgeport would be, or if Lou would ever do that to a guy that had the career path with this franchise that Bailey has had.

I'd hate to see this team have to give up more draft picks to find a taker, but hey, it's very possibly the route Lou takes.

Although I can see Varlamov staying on a team-friendly deal, moving Bailey to a team that is looking to swap out a back-up goalie who is fairly capable, but making too much for their taste, looks like a possiblity.

The one benefit remains that Bailey's cap hit (5 MM) is higher than the actual dollars (3.5 MM) a team will have to pay for him.

Is there such "you scratch my back, I scratch yours" type of partner out there for Lou to find for the Bailey contract dilemma?

 

[doublechili]

I'm not sure how Lou will remove Bailey and his contract from this team.

I'm not sure a buyout makes sense.

I'm not sure what the ramifications of burying him in Bridgeport would be, or if Lou would ever do that to a guy that had the career path with this franchise that Bailey has had.

I'd hate to see this team have to give up more draft picks to find a taker, but hey, it's very possibly the route Lou takes.

Although I can see Varlamov staying on a team-friendly deal, moving Bailey to a team that is looking to swap out a back-up goalie who is fairly capable, but making too much for their taste, looks like a possiblity.

The one benefit remains that Bailey's cap hit (5 MM) is higher than the actual dollars (3.5 MM) a team will have to pay for him.

Is there such "you scratch my back, I scratch yours" type of partner out there for Lou to find for the Bailey contract dilemma?

If they don't re-sign Mayfield (big "if"), then perhaps Bailey could be sent away for a similarly overpaid RHD who could play 3rd pairing minutes and fill a need. I think the new NASH GM likes Bailey, and he might have a guy to fit the bill.