Roster/Rumors/Speculation/Trade Talk - 2023-24: Hotel California

[gordie43]

Bolduc should but at the same time

look at Wahlstrom

The only thing I would add is Bolduc is a defenseman and they tend to take longer to develop, so I will give him a longer rope. But I do see your point

 

[Throttle]

Bolduc will be fine and should turn into a top 6 guy, maybe a low 4. He wasn’t put into the best situation this season. Roy, if here, will probably phase him in better next season, then just being forced into the lineup like this season.

 

[Osakahaus]

Bolduc will be fine and should turn into a top 6 guy, maybe a low 4. He wasn’t put into the best situation this season. Roy, if here, will probably phase him in better next season, then just being forced into the lineup like this season.

Does that make Aho expendable at that point?

 

[MJF]

Does that make Aho expendable at that point?

I wouldn't spend the money on him or Bortuzzo.

 

[Throttle]

Does that make Aho expendable at that point?

Don’t really see much value there to keep him. They should keep Reilly, if they can. His skillset, albeit flawed, at his price is nice value play. Only other comparable is Justin Shultz in Seattle, also a UFA, but he’s coming off a $3M p:year deal.

 

[Throttle]

I wouldn't spend the money on him or Bortuzzo.

Depending on how/if the Isles upgrade the D, then Bortuzzo around league minimum is fine. However, he ended up on Isles bc he wanted to play and Isles had injuries to give him the playing time.

If the Isles didn’t have him already, then hes the type of depth you acquire for a playoff run anyway.

I’d like to see the Isles sign Montour as a UFA, then trade Pulock for help up front.

 

[Osakahaus]

Depending on how/if the Isles upgrade the D, then Bortuzzo around league minimum is fine. However, he ended up on Isles bc he wanted to play and Isles had injuries to give him the playing time.

If the Isles didn’t have him already, then hes the type of depth you acquire for a playoff run anyway.

I’d like to see the Isles sign Montour as a UFA, then trade Pulock for help up front.

I think Montour+Teuvo would be a good offseason also

 

[SI]

A quick look at what the status quo offseason may look like -

• Dobson - extension - LL has extended every big RFA a season early - Sorokin, Barzal, Pelech, Pulock, and even Horvat before he hit the market.
• Martin and Cal - resign for 1 more season for just a hair from what they were getting - 1 m and 1.35 AAV respectively.
• LL plays hardball with Holmstrom - he has no arbitration rights and will simply accept his QO for 1 season.875 K - no need for the team to go higher than that.
• Roy likes Reilly, so I can see a 2 or 3-year deal somewhere between 2 and 2.5, say 2.25 AAV for 3 years.
• that leaves .775k for one more F - the only move would be to grab a F, like Beauvillier, Olofsson, Hoffman, Barabanov, Roslovic, or Tatar - a player looking to bounce back season. Not exactly what the fanbase or season ticket holders would like to see.

A quick look at what a status quo with ONE major change may look like -

• Most stay the same except:
• LL does one major shakeup - Buyout Lee OR DUMP JGP in Cap Dump trade - leaving LL to sign 1 UFA
• Some possible candidates would be DeBrusk, Toffoli, Teravainen, and Bertuzzi who cost somewhere in the 4.5 - 5 aav range

A quick look at what a status quo with TWO major changes may look like -

• Most stay the same except:
• LL does TWO major shakeups - Buyout Lee AND DUMP JGP in Cap Dump trade - leaving LL to sign 2 UFA
• ADDING TWO 5M PLAYERS - Some possible candidates in the 4.5 to 5 m range would be DeBrusk, Toffoli, Teravainen, and Bertuzzi
• ADDING 1 MAJOR UFA (MARCHESSAULT) AND MID-TIER (SPRONG OR ZUCKER)
• ADDING A TOP FREE AGENT (and overpaying for Guentzel) and adding 1 rebound candidate (Beauvillier or Barbanov)

 

[miscs75]

A quick look at what the status quo offseason may look like -

• that leaves .775k for one more F - the only move would be to grab a F, like Beauvillier, Olofsson, Hoffman, Barabanov, Roslovic, or Tatar - a player looking to bounce back season. Not exactly what the fanbase or season ticket holders would like to see.

Why add the guy in bold if you have a version of him on the team already. Wahlstrom is just as inept away from the puck.

 

[The Real JT]

Why add the guy in bold (Hoffman) if you have a version of him on the team already. Wahlstrom is just as inept away from the puck.

I didn’t realize it could be done but you just made me think Wahlstrom is a bargain.

 

[doublechili]

grab a F, like Beauvillier, Olofsson, Hoffman, Barabanov, Roslovic, or Tatar

How many times do I have to say it - a team with the derogatory nickname of "Fishsticks" CANNOT have a player named Tatar.

I mean, let's sign Nick Paul while we're at it so we can have "Mrs. Paul" at the games. Maybe replace Lou with Jeff Gorton.

 

[Throttle]

Tatar is not very good.

 

[Osakahaus]

Tatar is not very good.

tatar has finally lost all his steam. shame.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I don't see them being that desperate. If they wanted to trade him, a rebuilding team with cap space would probably ask for less.

Now that you mention it...

But even if word is out that he's available, no-one is taking Kotkaniemi's contract off Carolina's hands without some form of incentive. And Carolina knows that.

I also think Carolina would be smart enough to know that an Engvall is gonna bring them everything Kotkaniemi does but at 60% of the price and with more tradability down the line.

So, even if you take the 1st out of the suggested deal, it would take a pretty bad GM to offer something that outdoes the pros & cons for the Carolina here.

That said, being in the same division makes such a deal less likely.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I believe Kotkaniemi is young enough that he falls under 1/3rd cap hit rule on the buyout. Meaning his post buyout cap hit would be substantially lower than most typical buyouts.

Yep, according to capfriendly it would cost Carolina 835k to 455k in cap hit per season only. The buyout money is still real of course. Owner may not actually want to pay it. Length of time would also be 12 years.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Impossible? There is no bonus $ and he is under 26.

Since KK, is under 26 - the team only needs to honour 1/3rd of the $ meaning the Canes would be on the hook for only 10m of his 30m owed.
The Cap penalty would be only .835K for 9 seasons and .455K for 3 seasons.

Not that impossible.

Impossible was clearly the wrong word.

I think the "doability" of a buyout doesn't make a team want to have that on the books though.

And I don't know if there is any precedence, but if you'd just rather go without a player that young who is trending towards a nice 3rd line role with a wee bit of upwards upside, you don't buy him out.

You'll find a taker.

And most owners are gonna say, "Why the frack should I dish out 800+ K for nothing over 9 some years when you can get me a guy who we can still use who is actually cheaper just by sending a few of our many prospect assets over in the process???"

So, what I should have written about the buyout is that it's a non-option.

It'd be a fail to go that route, especially in light of the hoop-la to offer sheet him a few years back. I don't see Carolina being the kind of organization that sees that route as an option.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Does that make Aho expendable at that point?

He's a UFA this summer and I can't see him being re-signed.

All efforts should be invested in keeping Reilly in the fold.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Bolduc will be fine and should turn into a top 6 guy, maybe a low 4. He wasn’t put into the best situation this season. Roy, if here, will probably phase him in better next season, then just being forced into the lineup like this season.

If we have him on the roster as anything other than Dman #7, then we're definitely downgrading from the blueline we are currently throwing out there right now.

Heck, whatever Bolduc may become (and that's ultimately going to depend on more physicality combined with more foot speed), the current team has 7 Dmen who are better options and that's even with Mayfield out for the season.

His 1 goal and +2 in 5 games with BPort since being down on the farm isn't awful, but ain't nothing to write home about either. He should be a dominant factor down there.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I also think Carolina would be smart enough to know that an Engvall is gonna bring them everything Kotkaniemi does but at 60% of the price and with more tradability down the line.

I'm guessing if they were intent on trading him, they'd just pass on Engvall, take a deal without a player involved, and use the money elsewhere.

 

[periferal]

Why add the guy in bold if you have a version of him on the team already. Wahlstrom is just as inept away from the puck.

Not advocating for signing Hoffman at all, but Wahlstrom is also inept with the puck.

 

[miscs75]

Not advocating for signing Hoffman at all, but Wahlstrom is also inept with the puck.

This is true. He’s just a substantially cheaper one trick pony though. We could always see what Bobo Carpenter is about if we’re going to ask Lou to sign guys who don’t belong in the NHL anymore.

 

[SI]

Impossible was clearly the wrong word.

I think the "doability" of a buyout doesn't make a team want to have that on the books though.

And I don't know if there is any precedence, but if you'd just rather go without a player that young who is trending towards a nice 3rd line role with a wee bit of upwards upside, you don't buy him out.

You'll find a taker.

And most owners are gonna say, "Why the frack should I dish out 800+ K for nothing over 9 some years when you can get me a guy who we can still use who is actually cheaper just by sending a few of our many prospect assets over in the process???"

So, what I should have written about the buyout is that it's a non-option.

It'd be a fail to go that route, especially in light of the hoop-la to offer sheet him a few years back. I don't see Carolina being the kind of organization that sees that route as an option.

Wennberg is a good example.
He was bought out of his contract @ 4.9 aav, but for fewer seasons - his buyout was 6 years, not 9 years.

An owner can say that about any buyout. We have seen owners make early decisions on buying out players due to timing reasons - Parise, Suter, OEL and others have even done so because a GM had a strong preference to jettison the player and the contract even if that player was still very productive, ala Duchene.

KK turns 24 this summer, so they could give him one more season before they maximize the 1/3 buyout rule for players under 26.
However, if they need to pay their RFAs (Jarvis, Necas, Drury), resign or replace Pesce and Skjei, and resign Guentzel, then KK could be bought out.

 

[Throttle]

If we have him on the roster as anything other than Dman #7, then we're definitely downgrading from the blueline we are currently throwing out there right now.

Heck, whatever Bolduc may become (and that's ultimately going to depend on more physicality combined with more foot speed), the current team has 7 Dmen who are better options and that's even with Mayfield out for the season.

His 1 goal and +2 in 5 games with BPort since being down on the farm isn't awful, but ain't nothing to write home about either. He should be a dominant factor down there.

Lou gives a long development time for D-man, so Bolduc still has 2 years in Lou terms (and with Lou here).

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

I'm guessing if they were intent on trading him, they'd just pass on Engvall, take a deal without a player involved, and use the money elsewhere.

Nobody's taking Kotkaniemi's contract without money and contract(s) going back the other way.

That ain't happening.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Lou gives a long development time for D-man, so Bolduc still has 2 years in Lou terms (and with Lou here).

No disagreement there. He's cost-controlled. He's probably staying as long as Lou is here.

I'd be more inclined to believe he's closer to an NHL job if he was basically a left-handed Bortuzzo.

At the moment, it is soooo clear that we need what Reilly brings so infinitely more than either Aho or Bolduc that it's not worth mentioning the possibilities of these two until Reilly should, for whatever reason, become a non-factor this offseason.

I think everyone sees that Reilly fits and is guy we need to keep around.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Wennberg is a good example.
He was bought out of his contract @ 4.9 aav, but for fewer seasons - his buyout was 6 years, not 9 years.

An owner can say that about any buyout. We have seen owners make early decisions on buying out players due to timing reasons - Parise, Suter, OEL and others have even done so because a GM had a strong preference to jettison the player and the contract even if that player was still very productive, ala Duchene.

KK turns 24 this summer, so they could give him one more season before they maximize the 1/3 buyout rule for players under 26.
However, if they need to pay their RFAs (Jarvis, Necas, Drury), resign or replace Pesce and Skjei, and resign Guentzel, then KK could be bought out.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

My take on Carolina is that they're gonna find a way to productively move him, even if they have to pay a little price in picks/prospects, before they'd buy him out.

I just don't see them feeling the kind of "back against the wall" with respect to this player.

But yes, they have some VERY important UFAs this summer and several good guys who are going to be in need of pay hikes in the years to come.

So, they're definitely having thoughts.