I am thinking the best way to inject some new life into this team would be to trade Nelson and Palmieri and rebuild the 4th line. I constantly oscillate back and forth on this, but ultimately it comes down to these 3 things:
- Nelson and Palmieri will get the best returns
- And clear the most cap
- They both have modified trade protection
Moving Nelson
I did see a possible hockey trade between the Blues, Nelson and Buch, but got feedback from the main board and most pushed back on that idea. IMO, the most likely 16-team NTC is all 7 Canadian teams, Arizona, and say all the Western conference teams. Detroit and Minnesota are my best guesses -
- If Detroit misses the playoffs again, then Yzerman will feeel more pressure to break the streak. Finding a 2C to play behind Larkin, while knocking Copp to the W, and Compher to the 3C will work. I can see Nelson being used here and the Islanders receive the 2024 1st and say one of Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson, Sandin-Pellika. The pick will be somewhere between 12 and 16, i.e. say the pick is Iginla. Iginla and Danielson, along with the Isles 1st, say Buium, and already the Isles prospect pool is rebuilt in one draft year. This will lessen the loss of the 2025 1st at the TDL, when LL dangles it for more help - possibly on D or F.
- If Minny misses, then I also feel like Guerin will look to acquire a C - Nelson is a Minny native and his low cap hit of 6m will undoubtedly help during the Suter and Parise cap penalties, which will be done after the 24-25 season. The 2024 first, the pick will be somewhere between 12 and 16, (i.e. say the pick is Iginla) and a prospect (Riley Heidt).
Moving Palmieri
Palmieri is on pace to end the season with over 25 goals and 50 points. With only 1 season left @ 5 AAV, I can definitely see a team looking for top 6 help sniffing around Palmieri. He is much better option than signing a UFA of a similar production to a multi-year deal. A team that has multiple 2nd or 3rd rounders should be targeted. Palmieri also has a modified NTC of 16 teams and IMO no Canadian and Western Conference teams still apply.
- Chicago is a team that quickly comes to mind because they have multiple 2nds and will look to surround Bedard and potentially Macklin Celebrini with some veteran top 6 presence.
- Nashville - Trotz connection, Preds could use top 6 help, and they have multiple 2nds. Nashville will get some cap relief once Philly buys out Johansen this summer.
So, I would not buy out Lee or trade Pageau. I would trade Wahlstrom to Columbus for Olivier, sign a 7th D man, who can move the puck at the league minimum, sign a value-free agent looking for a bounce-back year to a one-year deal, i.e. Bertuzzi, Zucker, Barbanov, Beauvillier, Rosolvic, Kapanen, etc., and then all the cap should go to overpay for Marchessault and Debrusk.