Roster Building XXIV: Our Hearts Go Pitter Pattersson

[bleedgreen]

That’s not how an increasing salary cap works. And Makar sure as shit is going to make more than him.

Deservedly. If I had to choose between the two of them I’d choose Makar. Rants isn’t in that conversation.

 

[bleedgreen]

Saying “they did this because Chicago ate half the salary” makes sense until you realize the deal ate up MORE cap because Chicago was involved.

Involving Chicago wasn’t about getting Rantanen at half price. Involving Chicago was about getting Taylor Hall at about $1.8M by retaining on Rantanen instead of Hall.

I think there’s more at play here and they’re setting themselves up for the next move which is what the Chicago/retention part is for me. I still think they made this move because of Rantanen being a ufa and there’s less financial obligation with moving for him vs the other two. For the rest of this season anyways. I think they intend to do more and that plays a role in why they did this. I kind of think they won’t be overly upset if they don’t get Rantanen long term. I think they feel this is a roll of this dice and that it’s worth it to try. They’re going to try to get him to stay but it’s part of a series of hopeful moves for this year - hopefully beyond. I think they feel they’re going to find a way to get a competitive team no matter which way it all goes.

I know you're the resident wet blanket and all, but you don't have to go out of your way to crap on every move we make.

I think it’s an awesome move!

That’s different than thinking signing him to 14 million is a good follow up move. I think following our choices is fascinating and talking about both sides is perfectly appropriate.

 

[dogbazinho]

I'll be upset.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I'll be upset.

I'm already upset...just in case...

 

[Unsustainable]

I can't see Utah letting Vej walk till after the season at this point. Who else should we be looking at? Could we pry Sorokin out of the Islanders if they begin to fall out?

Evidently we was even looking at Marner.

I think that elusive 2c is our most needed then Burns replacement.

 

[To Be Determined]

I can't see Utah letting Vej walk till after the season at this point. Who else should we be looking at? Could we pry Sorokin out of the Islanders if they begin to fall out?

Evidently we was even looking at Marner.

I think that elusive 2c is our most needed then Burns replacement.

barring injury, or one of the two completely losing it mentally to the point they are darlingesque in every start, i'm 95% sure we won't add a goalie until the offseason.

 

[Chrispy]

I think there’s more at play here and they’re setting themselves up for the next move which is what the Chicago/retention part is for me. I still think they made this move because of Rantanen being a ufa and there’s less financial obligation with moving for him vs the other two. For the rest of this season anyways. I think they intend to do more and that plays a role in why they did this. I kind of think they won’t be overly upset if they don’t get Rantanen long term. I think they feel this is a roll of this dice and that it’s worth it to try. They’re going to try to get him to stay but it’s part of a series of hopeful moves for this year - hopefully beyond. I think they feel they’re going to find a way to get a competitive team no matter which way it all goes.


I think it’s an awesome move!

That’s different than thinking signing him to 14 million is a good follow up move. I think following our choices is fascinating and talking about both sides is perfectly appropriate.

I think most of involving Chicago was getting Hall for cheaper than they could get any other impact rental. Hall at $1.8M (edit: it's actually $1.375M when you subtract Rantanen's 50% from Hall's $6M cap hit!) is a much better deal than anyone else they are going to get as a rental this deadline.

Rantanen they were going to take at full value or half; they used Chicago to add a move and (I think this is the galaxy brain aspect) fill up the salary cap before putting Carrier on LTIR so they have close to his full $2M at the deadline.

Now, on the off-season side. When you look at the UFA crop for this summer and ask yourself "who would Carolina make a big swing at bringing on if they made it to July 1?" I think the top of that list would be Rantanen. Even ahead of Marner because of the experience playing internationally with Aho and being more of a finisher than Marner. Now they have their pie in the sky target to negotiate with alone for 5 months. I think they hoped Rantanen would make it to July 1 and now they can negotiate with him in advance and with the advantage of year 8.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

My prior comments some posts back about our defense are clearly controversial, but in many cases, the eye test for our defensemen are a lot worse than the actual statistical results. We don't need a massive change there. Nikishin and Morrow will hopefully be the infusions of youthful energy that will keep our defense strong long-term, but Morrow's defensive game, at least IMO, isn't quite ready yet to play for Brind'Amour. We'll see what happens, but I hold onto my prior predictions on the matter.

Canes will have plenty of options to acquire a 2C with cap space alone, even with a Rantanen extension. KK could be an excellent 3C when Staal ages out, so as long as we're not cap-constrained, I think it's prudent to hold onto him. Overall, we're very well set up for at least the medium-term.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Canes are one quality D/shut down pair short for a run.

First year Burns with Csnes was that guy. Third year Burns is not.

 

[User13452]

Canes are one quality D/shut down pair short for a run.

First year Burns with Csnes was that guy. Third year Burns is not.

Will be tough to acquire that type of player during the season just not sure who your scratching come playoff time if you do get another d man if anything they’ll probably acquire a 6-7 depth guy that’s a upgrade on Stillman and smith

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Canes are one quality D/shut down pair short for a run.

First year Burns with Csnes was that guy. Third year Burns is not.

Depending on how they utilize Nikishin when he comes over, he might be just the boost they may be looking for. At the very least, he can give the likes of Ghost and especially Burns some much-needed rest.

 

[Sigurd]

I think you’re hitting on the big point here! A rental at this time didn’t make a ton of sense, not without signing him. We didn’t talk to Rants camp at all, and made this huge trade blind. It’s a rental. Full stop. Freidman said we were very close on those other two, and frankly they both play center so going with a power winger who’s ufa is a bold choice. You can absolutely say we need both things. I do think we money pucked here. We found someone to take half the salary, I think that’s the primary reason we did this over the other two. We value the financial situation over finding the right position, and justify it because it’s an improvement. It should be one and I still presume it will be.

They looked at Jake as a long term option and they absolutely think the same here. At the same time there’s zero reason to think Rantanen will sign here and forego free agency. He’s waited his whole career to have his choice, and he’s at the 5 yard line on a sprint to the goal with nothing in front of him. It’s not a smart move to sign with us ahead of time.

I think it’s 50% at best that he walks. It’s probably 85% or worse. So this will be an interesting deadline!

Is it though? For one thing, Vancouver was reportedly asking for Necas for Miller. One can only imagine what their asking price was for EP40. It's reasonable to assume at least one of our high tier prospects not named Nikishin would've been required for EP like say Morrow, and it's safe to assume KK was required for both Miller, and definitely EP, in addition to Necas. After we traded Drury for Rantanen, I think it's safe to say the front office, and probably Rod, like KK better than Drury.

Then we look at Rantanen's production history, and he's just consistently a super-star tier player unlike EP and Miller. Colorado fans saying he's lazy the past few years while he posted 92, 105, and 104 points over the past 3 years sounds like they are either (A) coping with the loss of Rantanen from the team roster, (B) have an embarassment of riches situation when he isn't posted multiple points every game because they're used to highly elite production since they also have MacKinnon and Makar (C), they geniunely think he's somehow not that great and you wonder what a non-lazy/non-careless Rantanen looks like after all of his point production in his career.

If he's gotten lazy/careless in recent years, why did he not reach 90 points until 3 years ago? Before that season (21-22), he had two seasons in the 80s. One at 84 points, and another at 87. Furthermore, it was early in his NHL career when he had two seasons with a negative rating. -25 and -2. All of his other seasons have been at a plus rating after.

TLDR:

-We didn't get Rantanen because, oh it's Carolina moneypucking things again (those cheap, analytical driven silly rascals; this is a trite narrative) because they got 50% rentention for a rental versus expensive long term contracts.

-Rantanen is overall the better player performance wise than Miller or EP. Like at drafts, we typically go for the best player available. Rantanen was the best forward available.

-The trade cost was cheaper than EP, and Rantanen's trade cost was probably similiar for Miller too since they wanted Necas for Miller. Never mind the fact that Miller is about 4 years older than Rantanen at the age of almost 32 (this March). Aren't you a fan that's pointed out Carolina's reculantance to committ to long term, expensive contracts with older players like so many of us (I have)?

I think there’s more at play here and they’re setting themselves up for the next move which is what the Chicago/retention part is for me. I still think they made this move because of Rantanen being a ufa and there’s less financial obligation with moving for him vs the other two. For the rest of this season anyways. I think they intend to do more and that plays a role in why they did this. I kind of think they won’t be overly upset if they don’t get Rantanen long term. I think they feel this is a roll of this dice and that it’s worth it to try. They’re going to try to get him to stay but it’s part of a series of hopeful moves for this year - hopefully beyond. I think they feel they’re going to find a way to get a competitive team no matter which way it all goes.


I think it’s an awesome move!

That’s different than thinking signing him to 14 million is a good follow up move. I think following our choices is fascinating and talking about both sides is perfectly appropriate.

Why do you think 14 million dollars is the only number he's willing to sign? Considering the fact that just today he was saying he was willing to sign with Colorado for a discount. Even if that's not true, the fact that he made that public comment now means he's kind of backed himself into a corner with us, and he would look bad and like a liar if he was only willing to sign for 14 million. I doubt he signs for even 13.5.

I also read that Carolina, unlike Colorado, is willing to sign him for 8 years instead of only 7. Don't know how true that speculation is, but it's out there in the recent contract discussion in the public.

Also, how is it moneypuck for a player you think is only gonna sign for 14 million? How would our front office think Rantanen was a moneypuck move with his extension being one of the most expensive in the league even if it likely will be under 14 million?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Also, how is it moneypuck for a player you think is only gonna sign for 14 million? How would our front office think Rantanen was a moneypuck move with his extension being one of the most expensive in the league even if it likely will be under 14 million?

The Moneyball aspect of Carolina is how they've prepped their roster around getting their big fish. They know that they need to pay their franchise guys well. What they've avoided is giving albatrosses to guys like Lindholm, for example, just because the casuals think they need a 2C right at this moment.

 

[Sigurd]

The Moneyball aspect of Carolina is how they've prepped their roster around getting their big fish. They know that they need to pay their franchise guys well.

I agree.

Because they've generally been frugal with other roster players, this has given them the room to take on a contract extension for, objectively speaking, an annual top 10 best player in the league with his hefty pay bump.

Unlike some other teams like say Toronto, or to a lesser extent, Colorado before they traded Rantanen, we don't have mega bucks tied up in 3-4 players, and that allows us to have depth in our roster.

 

[mikeyfan]

When you look at our core players right now we look pretty good

Aho 9.75 Million FA 2032
Svech 7.57 Million FA 2029
Jarvis 7.42 Million FA 2032
Slavin 6.385 Million FA 2033
KK 4.282 Million FA 2030 (at least for now as a Core Player)

So I'd say a team that has 4 to 5 solid core players like the Canes are in pretty good shape. To add another Core Player like Mikko through 2033-2034 for 13.5 would be even better.

Also there will be some urgency for. will be FA after the end of NEXT season to sign long term because it is rumored the Owners are going to try to Max the number. of years for a contract from 8 to 5 years.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

When you look at our core players right now we look pretty good

Aho 9.75 Million FA 2032
Svech 7.57 Million FA 2029
Jarvis 7.42 Million FA 2032
Slavin 6.385 Million FA 2033
KK 4.282 Million FA 2030 (at least for now as a Core Player)

So I'd say a team that has 4 to 5 solid core players like the Canes are in pretty good shape. To add another Core Player like Mikko through 2033-2034 for 13.5 would be even better.

Also there will be some urgency for. will be FA after the end of NEXT season to sign long term because it is rumored the Owners are going to try to Max the number. of years for a contract from 8 to 5 years.

The owners can try, but IMO they will fail. Burgeoning NHL revenues give players a better, not worse, position on contracts. There are exceptions, but long contracts are generally player-friendly.

 

[Svechhammer]

Well that flies in the face of some narratives that developed in previous years

 

[Svechhammer]

Oh we are definitely going to piss the hockey world off with his next contract if we are already floating the idea of deferrals...

 

[User13452]

Oh we are definitely going to piss the hockey world off with his next contract if we are already floating the idea of deferrals...

Then he also said Edmonton tried that with Draisaitl who has the same agent and it didn’t get very far at all.

 

[Borsig]

So how do the deferrals work? Screw us on cap in later years when we will probably be in a rebuild or?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

So how do the deferrals work? Screw us on cap in later years when we will probably be in a rebuild or?

Nope. The deferred payments are paid out after the contract ends, and thus do not affect the cap negatively.

 

[Borsig]

Nope. The deferred payments are paid out after the contract ends, and thus do not affect the cap negatively.

how the hell is that legal v the cap? also I bet a lot of these guys invest so - it seems that would be a negative to their end

 

[chaz4hockey]

Well that flies in the face of some narratives that developed in previous years

That’s a private equity way of thinking. Credit to Dundon though.

 

[Chrispy]

how the hell is that legal v the cap? also I bet a lot of these guys invest so - it seems that would be a negative to their end

Cap hit is in current value, then they are paid more than the cap hit on the future date or dates.

From an investment perspective it would be a hedge against more aggressive investments and the belief that current inflation estimates are higher than what will happen.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

how the hell is that legal v the cap? also I bet a lot of these guys invest so - it seems that would be a negative to their end

Well, take Frank Vatrano for example. He signed a 3 year deal with Anaheim that will give him 3 million a year. He also got $9 million deferred starting 10 years from now, earning $900k a year. Why did he do it?

Because he figures 10 years from now, he won’t be living in California and thus, that $9 million will not be subjected to the high California taxes. His deferred payments are considered “retirement income” by some provision of the US tax code, and no state may tax the retirement income if the person doesn’t live in that state.

Obviously, the issue is as you said: Most players are going to want their money ASAP because they know if they invest it wisely, they’ll end up with more money than if they defer it. But Tulsky has already successfully swayed Slavin and Jarvis to defer some part of their new contract. He may be successful in getting Rantanen to do so as well.