Roster Building XXIV: Our Hearts Go Pitter Pattersson

[TheBigLetowski]

I may be biased, but the Moose move reiterates to me that we have the smartest borg group in the league. We are one step ahead and no one analyzes players, contracts, terms better than our group. I am very excited to see what the next 5-6 weeks will be like before the deadline. We aren't done.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Yeah, I'm down with what you're saying too. All things considered, I probably would have found a way to extend Jake even if it was 9-9.5 over all the extra we'll have to pay Rantanen. I think Rantanen is like a tier higher, but they are both in pretty high to elite tiers. Anyway, it didn't work out with Jake, lessons learned.

I agree there is a pretty good likelihood he won't live up to the contract (whatever it ends up being) in the long term. The same was probably true for Jake but it will likely be more extreme with the larger contract. The only good news is if there really is a cap explosion in the next 5 years and beyond, it could completely redefine what is a good contract and who is living up to one.

If we keep him, I'm not too worried about his production even with reduced time. I think he'll still live in that 90-105 point range for some years to come. He'll hopefully be fresher and at least we've been more open to the first unit PP staying out 90 seconds this season.

He also has the benefit of being a couple years younger than Guentz. Be great if we could get him cheaper on another deferred salary contract before the league can swoop in and put a stop to it

 

[User13452]

 

[Unhinged Finn]

Dundon felt him say discount and told ET to call McFarland, not home.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah, I'm down with what you're saying too. All things considered, I probably would have found a way to extend Jake even if it was 9-9.5 over all the extra we'll have to pay Rantanen. I think Rantanen is like a tier higher, but they are both in pretty high to elite tiers. Anyway, it didn't work out with Jake, lessons learned.

I agree there is a pretty good likelihood he won't live up to the contract (whatever it ends up being) in the long term. The same was probably true for Jake but it will likely be more extreme with the larger contract. The only good news is if there really is a cap explosion in the next 5 years and beyond, it could completely redefine what is a good contract and who is living up to one.

If we keep him, I'm not too worried about his production even with reduced time. I think he'll still live in that 90-105 point range for some years to come. He'll hopefully be fresher and at least we've been more open to the first unit PP staying out 90 seconds this season.

I’ll be happy if he can get to 90 with us. Actually, I’ll be more impressed than I ever was here in CO just because it’s with us.

Gotta remember that Mackinnon makes 12.6. Rants shouldn’t make more than him.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

I'm just saying, extend Rantanen and with Aho, Rantanen, Kotkaniemi, Svechnikov, Kochetkov and Nikishin on the roster for a while to come we can Rocky IV this bitch and show the world that if we can change, and they can change, that everybody can change, and we resolve all global Russian problems now.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'm just saying, extend Rantanen and with Aho, Rantanen, Kotkaniemi, Svechnikov, Kochetkov and Nikishin on the roster for a while to come we can Rocky IV this bitch and show the world that if we can change, and they can change, that everybody can change, and we resolve all global Russian problems now.

We need a Russian training montage video to go along with this.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Rantanen is the best rental traded in a long time, probably since Kovalchuk 15 years ago. He wasn’t playing for a team that had to move him. It’s a unique deal under unique circumstances.

Necas signing a 2 year deal hurt his trade value. If he was under contract for 6-8 years at a pre breakout number, the trade doesn’t happen in its current form.

I think this a good reminder to never say never. Two years ago, there were posters on this board that thought they’d never pay the price for a major rental. They just did. Winning the Stanley Cup is the goal.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

What about trying to bring back an old friend in Morgan Geekie? Make him the 4th line center, where he can also interchange with KK or Blake, or Hall if Rod wishes to use him in the top lines. he has a Cap hit of 2 million and will be a RFA with Arbitration rights next season.

He knows the system, and I truly believe Rod hated that we had to put him in the expansion draft.

I don’t imagine Boston would be interested in moving him. He and Pasternak are the offense it seems at the moment.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I’ll be happy if he can get to 90 with us. Actually, I’ll be more impressed than I ever was here in CO just because it’s with us.

Gotta remember that Mackinnon makes 12.6. Rants shouldn’t make more than him.

Someone in the trade thread I think ran the numbers and Rants at 14M (I think) was a smaller percent of the cap than Mac when he signed his deal. So he would make more but not make more in a way depending on how you look at things.

 

[Chrispy]

Someone in the trade thread I think ran the numbers and Rants at 14M (I think) was a smaller percent of the cap than Mac when he signed his deal. So he would make more but not make more in a way depending on how you look at things.

Right. You can't keep that logic through the life of a contract, especially with the way the cap is jumping this year.

Colorado certainly can't when Makar is coming up.

OTOH, the logic of "we can't afford to pay MacKinnon and Makar and Rantanen each 12+ and Rantanen is the one we would move of those 3" makes sense to me.

 

[bleedgreen]

Right. You can't keep that logic through the life of a contract, especially with the way the gap is jumping this year.

Colorado certainly can't when Makar is coming up.

OTOH, the logic of "we can't afford to pay MacKinnon and Makar and Rantanen each 12+ and Rantanen is the one we would move of those 3" makes sense to me.

Mack is in the second year of the contract….

 

[To Be Determined]

i think my main takeaway from everything i've read about rantanen is that he is the forward version of joni pitkanen. results don't matter - and even if he is skilled enough to make a great play look effortless, he must not be giving any effort.

(i'm not saying he is giving breaking-in stevie lorentz level effort, but 300 points over the last three seasons... i mean, come on. no 'effs?)

the other thing i've seen a lot is that he is a product of makar and more importantly mackinnon. no doubt those guys have boosted him, and i expect he will score less in carolina. but the folks more or less calling him a passenger haven't had any answer when asked about his results when mackinnon was out. so, to quote the hurricane, what'supwithdat?

 

[Chrispy]

Mack is in the second year of the contract….

And MacKinnon signed that contract in September 2022 when the cap was $82.5M.

The cap is now $88M and projected to go up to 92.5M for 25-26.

Pro-rating MacKinnon's 15% of the cap hit to 25-26, you get a $14.1M cap hit. There's room to go above MacKinnon's nominal value and still be less of the 25-26 cap hit by % than MacKinnon received in September 2022.

Playing hardball vs a superstar contract made more sense when the cap didn't increase much from 2019-2022 due to Covid. You can't simply say no one can be paid more than MacKinnon when the cap is exploding that quickly.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

He would have been a nice nab once we got rid of Freddie

 

[bleedgreen]

And MacKinnon signed that contract in September 2022 when the cap was $82.5M.

The cap is now $88M and projected to go up to 92.5M for 25-26.

Pro-rating MacKinnon's 15% of the cap hit to 25-26, you get a $14.1M cap hit. There's room to go above MacKinnon's nominal value and still be less of the 25-26 cap hit by % than MacKinnon received in September 2022.

Playing hardball vs a superstar contract made more sense when the cap didn't increase much from 2019-2022 due to Covid. You can't simply say no one can be paid more than MacKinnon when the cap is exploding that quickly.

I feel we’re coming up with reasons to overpay someone and feel good about it because we really want someone to stay. I get it. He’s a great player. I don’t think he’s as great as we’re trying to stretch here, but I do think he has potential to be a great add. Making our “50ft player” our highest paid guy and limiting the ability to fill the other holes on the team might not be the best plan. Saying “well the cap will go up” is more hope than plan. They’re already saying some teams will hit their internal cap soon, and not everyone will spend to the cap. We have no idea about where we are with that.

I’ve watched Rantanen play as much as I watched Necas play. I live in Denver and go to the games. Rantanen would not be someone I pay 14 million. Even with cap changes. He won’t supplant Aho as our best player. He should be and has to be our best goal scorer.

 

[Chrispy]

I feel we’re coming up with reasons to overpay someone and feel good about it because we really want someone to stay. I get it. He’s a great player. I don’t think he’s as great as we’re trying to stretch here, but I do think he has potential to be a great add. Making our “50ft player” our highest paid guy and limiting the ability to fill the other holes on the team might not be the best plan. Saying “well the cap will go up” is more hope than plan. They’re already saying some teams will hit their internal cap soon, and not everyone will spend to the cap. We have no idea about where we are with that.

If you aren't willing to pay to the new cap, then moving for this rental is a terrible idea this season. A big rental last season made sense. With the roster questions you and others point out remaining, this move only makes sense if you see Rantanen as a long-term fixture on Aho's wing.

Otherwise, you look for a longer-term player for Necas, like Pettersson or Miller.

I think Tulsky plans to continue to moneypuck goal and sees the money available to pay a top line wing now.

 

[Brock Anton]

Exactly. If the FO wasn't looking to "overpay" for a Rantanen contract to keep him around, they would've just swung the trade for Pettersson.

 

[bleedgreen]

If you aren't willing to pay to the new cap, then moving for this rental is a terrible idea this season. A big rental last season made sense. With the roster questions you and others point out remaining, this move only makes sense if you see Rantanen as a long-term fixture on Aho's wing.

Otherwise, you look for a longer-term player for Necas, like Pettersson or Miller.

I think Tulsky plans to continue to moneypuck goal and sees the money available to pay a top line wing now.

I think you’re hitting on the big point here! A rental at this time didn’t make a ton of sense, not without signing him. We didn’t talk to Rants camp at all, and made this huge trade blind. It’s a rental. Full stop. Freidman said we were very close on those other two, and frankly they both play center so going with a power winger who’s ufa is a bold choice. You can absolutely say we need both things. I do think we money pucked here. We found someone to take half the salary, I think that’s the primary reason we did this over the other two. We value the financial situation over finding the right position, and justify it because it’s an improvement. It should be one and I still presume it will be.

They looked at Jake as a long term option and they absolutely think the same here. At the same time there’s zero reason to think Rantanen will sign here and forego free agency. He’s waited his whole career to have his choice, and he’s at the 5 yard line on a sprint to the goal with nothing in front of him. It’s not a smart move to sign with us ahead of time.

I think it’s 50% at best that he walks. It’s probably 85% or worse. So this will be an interesting deadline!

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

I think you’re hitting on the big point here! A rental at this time didn’t make a ton of sense, not without signing him. We didn’t talk to Rants camp at all, and made this huge trade blind. It’s a rental. Full stop. Freidman said we were very close on those other two, and frankly they both play center so going with a power winger who’s ufa is a bold choice. You can absolutely say we need both things. I do think we money pucked here. We found someone to take half the salary, I think that’s the primary reason we did this over the other two. We value the financial situation over finding the right position, and justify it because it’s an improvement. It should be one and I still presume it will be.

They looked at Jake as a long term option and they absolutely think the same here. At the same time there’s zero reason to think Rantanen will sign here and forego free agency. He’s waited his whole career to have his choice, and he’s at the 5 yard line on a sprint to the goal with nothing in front of him. It’s not a smart move to sign with us ahead of time.

I think it’s 50% at best that he walks. It’s probably 85% or worse. So this will be an interesting deadline!

I know you're the resident wet blanket and all, but you don't have to go out of your way to crap on every move we make.

 

[Chrispy]

I think you’re hitting on the big point here! A rental at this time didn’t make a ton of sense, not without signing him. We didn’t talk to Rants camp at all, and made this huge trade blind. It’s a rental. Full stop. Freidman said we were very close on those other two, and frankly they both play center so going with a power winger who’s ufa is a bold choice. You can absolutely say we need both things. I do think we money pucked here. We found someone to take half the salary, I think that’s the primary reason we did this over the other two. We value the financial situation over finding the right position, and justify it because it’s an improvement. It should be one and I still presume it will be.

They looked at Jake as a long term option and they absolutely think the same here. At the same time there’s zero reason to think Rantanen will sign here and forego free agency. He’s waited his whole career to have his choice, and he’s at the 5 yard line on a sprint to the goal with nothing in front of him. It’s not a smart move to sign with us ahead of time.

I think it’s 50% at best that he walks. It’s probably 85% or worse. So this will be an interesting deadline!

Saying “they did this because Chicago ate half the salary” makes sense until you realize the deal ate up MORE cap because Chicago was involved.

Involving Chicago wasn’t about getting Rantanen at half price. Involving Chicago was about getting Taylor Hall at about $1.8M by retaining on Rantanen instead of Hall.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I’ll be happy if he can get to 90 with us. Actually, I’ll be more impressed than I ever was here in CO just because it’s with us.

Gotta remember that Mackinnon makes 12.6. Rants shouldn’t make more than him.

That’s not how an increasing salary cap works. And Makar sure as shit is going to make more than him.

 

[mikeyfan]

The Reality is, by being innovative and Signing Jarvis the way Tlusky did gave us the freedom and room to pull this trade off. Again, I. see Mikko at 13.5 to 13.75 a year for 8 years and with him playing beside Aho, they will be as big a threat in the NHL as any duo, in my opinion. My biggest concern with the Hurricanes is Svech, Is he going. to break out and become that consistent 30 Goal Scorer or is he prime to be traded for another impact player right now while the getting is good? I don't know, it's really a coin flip for me.

 

[Brock Anton]

The Reality is, by being innovative and Signing Jarvis the way Tlusky did gave us the freedom and room to pull this trade off. Again, I. see Mikko at 13.5 to 13.75 a year for 8 years and with him playing beside Aho, they will be as big a threat in the NHL as any duo, in my opinion. My biggest concern with the Hurricanes is Svech, Is he going. to break out and become that consistent 30 Goal Scorer or is he prime to be traded for another impact player right now while the getting is good? I don't know, it's really a coin flip for me.

I'm 60-40 on Svech ever taking that next step (leaning no), but a long-term Rantanen signing does more good than harm for him as it takes a *lot* of pressure off him to become that #1 guy for us. Him ultimately becoming a 25-30 goal, 60-70 point guy isn't as problematic when Rantanen is the 90+ point guy.

 

[WreckingCrew]

He would have been a nice nab once we got rid of Freddie

I was just looking at the goalie market before and thinking I'd love to see Thompson shake loose for us, but with the year Washington is having and probably keeping one of Thompson/Lindgren I figured Thompson wouldn't make it to UFA