Roster Building XXII: Too Many Forwards, Hopefully One Cup

[spockBokk]

Nadeau is a natural LW despite being a right shot. He IMO is the most likely young guy to make the team.

I’d be shocked if he did, just don’t see anyway RBA will give him top 6 minutes on his offside only 1yr out of college.

He needs AHL time, that’s fine.

 

[Svechhammer]

I know there is still plenty of time left in the summer, but there is about a month left until preseason training camp gets underway, and I'm starting to wonder WTF we are doing with Jarvis. If he's truly the future of the franchise and the guy we cannot let get away, why is he still not signed? Why are we stretching this out to the last minute? Seeing St Louis offer sheet 2 Edmonton guys like they did this week... I dunno, the more this goes on, the more I'm worried that we're approaching a 'f*** around and find out' line with Jarvis, and I'm not sure we want to do that.

 

[spockBokk]

I know there is still plenty of time left in the summer, but there is about a month left until preseason training camp gets underway, and I'm starting to wonder WTF we are doing with Jarvis. If he's truly the future of the franchise and the guy we cannot let get away, why is he still not signed? Why are we stretching this out to the last minute? Seeing St Louis offer sheet 2 Edmonton guys like they did this week... I dunno, the more this goes on, the more I'm worried that we're approaching a 'f*** around and find out' line with Jarvis, and I'm not sure we want to do that.

Here is the current list of RFAs in the entire league:

Players | Puckpedia

dashboard.puckpedia.com

There are over 20 unsigned RFAs, some as high-profile as Jarvis. There's no reason for this sort of drivel at this point. Svechnikov wasn't signed until late August. If by Labor Day he's not signed, sure it might be a concern.

But for now, lay off the chicken little stuff.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Svech didnt sign until late August. The only time to panic is if he camp is near a week away and he hasnt signed yet.

 

[NotOpie]

I know there is still plenty of time left in the summer, but there is about a month left until preseason training camp gets underway, and I'm starting to wonder WTF we are doing with Jarvis.

Living up to our reputation of pissing our free agents off.....did I do that right?

 

[chaz4hockey]

Jarvis has spent the summer via an European vacation ala Chevy chase and his crew.

He will sign by September.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I just find it funny that the Borg made it clear at the start of the off-season that getting Jarvis and Guentzel signed were top priority, numero uno, all the focus on them.

And now we're midway through August and one is in Tampa and we've heard very little regarding the other.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I just find it funny that the Borg made it clear at the start of the off-season that getting Jarvis and Guentzel signed were top priority, numero uno, all the focus on them.

And now we're midway through August and one is in Tampa and we've heard very little regarding the other.

Which means that Guentzel wanted to go to Tampa and it wasn't that Carolina was unwilling to spend cash. That's how the dice rolls sometimes. They compensated by keeping Necas and once again running a 6-deep defense. As for Jarvis, it's possible that the Canes want to know what the Jesper Fast situation actually is before the Jarvis contract is announced.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Which means that Guentzel wanted to go to Tampa and it wasn't that Carolina was unwilling to spend cash. That's how the dice rolls sometimes. They compensated by keeping Necas and once again running a 6-deep defense. As for Jarvis, it's possible that the Canes want to know what the Jesper Fast situation actually is before the Jarvis contract is announced.

The Guenztal discourse has been repeated ad nasuem, so I won’t get into that. Keeping Necas was a necessity after losing Jake and not necessarily what the team (or player) wanted. But I am happy with how they manages to recover the defense, given the situation they were in, even if it is weaker than last year’s. I just wish they put that same kind of emphasis on the forward group, which needed more help before everyone left and certainly needs it now.

I also worry that the more time Jarvis is without a new contract, the more time it gives the organization to “f*** around and find out” as they’re wont to do.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The Guenztal discourse has been repeated ad nasuem, so I won’t get into that. Keeping Necas was a necessity after losing Jake and not necessarily what the team (or player) wanted. But I am happy with how they manages to recover the defense, given the situation they were in, even if it is weaker than last year’s. I just wish they put that same kind of emphasis on the forward group, which needed more help before everyone left and certainly needs it now.

I also worry that the more time Jarvis is without a new contract, the more time it gives the organization to “f*** around and find out” as they’re wont to do.

Defense is their core identity as a team, because even if the Canes have a bad scoring night, they keep the games extremely close. That's why they invest so much in it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

DW still trying to trade Laine. He hasn’t found anything that makes sense and sounds like no leads on anything either

 

[hblueridgegal]

I know there is still plenty of time left in the summer, but there is about a month left until preseason training camp gets underway, and I'm starting to wonder WTF we are doing with Jarvis. If he's truly the future of the franchise and the guy we cannot let get away, why is he still not signed? Why are we stretching this out to the last minute? Seeing St Louis offer sheet 2 Edmonton guys like they did this week... I dunno, the more this goes on, the more I'm worried that we're approaching a 'f*** around and find out' line with Jarvis, and I'm not sure we want to do that.

Personally, I think he's the "big ticket" to get buyers on board. So, they are going to save it until they need it. The fan love is going to be phenomenal. So, I'd keep it in my back pocket until I needed to play the card. Just think of "the joy" clicks, jerseys, STMs, etc that will occur upon the announcement?

 

[WreckingCrew]

The Guenztal discourse has been repeated ad nasuem, so I won’t get into that. Keeping Necas was a necessity after losing Jake and not necessarily what the team (or player) wanted. But I am happy with how they manages to recover the defense, given the situation they were in, even if it is weaker than last year’s. I just wish they put that same kind of emphasis on the forward group, which needed more help before everyone left and certainly needs it now.

I also worry that the more time Jarvis is without a new contract, the more time it gives the organization to “f*** around and find out” as they’re wont to do.

I do wonder if we're still trying to work something out with DW for a retained Laine and depending on that we either bridge Jarvis or 8 year deal him

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Defense is their core identity as a team, because even if the Canes have a bad scoring night, they keep the games extremely close. That's why they invest so much in it.

I get that, I do. But I think the forward group needed to be invested in MUCH more than the defense did. If we had done basically nothing to fix our defense this offseason, we would have had Slavin-Burns and Orlov-Chatfield as our top 4. Not great, but certainly serviceable given how they’ve played in the past.

We acquired Jake at the deadline because we had an obvious hole in our Top 6. Now Jake is gone, putting us back in that same position. Except TT left as well, putting us down two Top 6 forwards. And we acquired zero Top 6 forwards to replace them. And it sounds like the plan is basically to hope one of the prospects steps up to take a Top 6 spot (which is an insane ask) or we piecemail bottom 6 forwards into a Top 6 spot 20 games at a time (which is a bad plan).

 

[Svechhammer]

Personally, I think he's the "big ticket" to get buyers on board. So, they are going to save it until they need it. The fan love is going to be phenomenal. So, I'd keep it in my back pocket until I needed to play the card. Just think of "the joy" clicks, jerseys, STMs, etc that will occur upon the announcement?

Maybe? But at the same time, single game tickets just went on sale today, so if the goal was to get STM onboard, they kind of missed that boat.

 

[QuebeCaniac]

many unsigned RFA throughout the league, Jarvis is far from being the only one.

 

[CandyCanes]

I get that, I do. But I think the forward group needed to be invested in MUCH more than the defense did. If we had done basically nothing to fix our defense this offseason, we would have had Slavin-Burns and Orlov-Chatfield as our top 4. Not great, but certainly serviceable given how they’ve played in the past.

We acquired Jake at the deadline because we had an obvious hole in our Top 6. Now Jake is gone, putting us back in that same position. Except TT left as well, putting us down two Top 6 forwards. And we acquired zero Top 6 forwards to replace them. And it sounds like the plan is basically to hope one of the prospects steps up to take a Top 6 spot (which is an insane ask) or we piecemail bottom 6 forwards into a Top 6 spot 20 games at a time (which is a bad plan).

I also think you’re thinking pretty short sighted, while the Canes management is game planning for the long term. We tried with Guentzel, TT didn’t make sense as a long term piece, and nothing else that was available really made sense as a top 6 forward piece this offseason.

We were one season away from having 0 defense under contract. This offseason addressed that. There’s now stability on the backend for next few seasons with (4) guys on 3+ year long contracts, and Nikishin incoming too.

Orlov & Burns come off the books next season freeing up $13M in cap space. You can almost guarantee that some of that free’d up cap space will get allocated to a top 6 forward, someone that’s hopefully comparable to Guentzel. If Rantanen, Marner, or Draisaitl make it to UFA you gotta imagine we’ll be all over them. I imagine on top of that we’ll search for a top 6/9 guy.

In total there will be about $24M to play with for the 25/26 offseason. $28M if we buyout KK. I’ll be upset next offseason if we don’t address our top 6 issues, which is something we clearly have this year, but it was expected in my opinion

 

[Chan790]

I do wonder if we're still trying to work something out with DW for a retained Laine and depending on that we either bridge Jarvis or 8 year deal him

I hope not.

We already have the actual superstar and driver of that Finnish super-line. No need to push for the passengers, especially since while they both played better with Aho, he was actually slightly better with other veteran, more-defensively-responsible, linemates that year.

I hope both Laine and Puljujarvi buy Aho a steak dinner whenever they're in town...he boosted their draft position and made them a few million extra dollars in their careers. They owe it to him. I see no reason to repeat the Puljujarvi error however.

 

[Lempo]

I hope not.

We already have the actual superstar and driver of that Finnish super-line. No need to push for the passengers, especially since while they both played better with Aho, he was actually slightly better with other veteran, more-defensively-responsible, linemates that year.

I hope both Laine and Puljujarvi buy Aho a steak dinner whenever they're in town...he boosted their draft position and made them a few million extra dollars in their careers. They owe it to him. I see no reason to repeat the Puljujarvi error however.

I'm not promoting bringing in Laine, BUT:

in the time period of his two first seasons in 2016-18, he was second in goals league-wide only behind certain Alexander O. He's been badly waylaid since, maybe he got figured out by everyone or something, or he was tried to be turned into something he's not, but his draft position was no product of Aho, and it wasn't Aho who earned him that $1.8M Schedule B performance bonus that he unlocked at least once during his time on ELC for the top 10 goals in the league. Laine did his own show-me's in the Finnish Men's league in the spring before the draft.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I hope not.

We already have the actual superstar and driver of that Finnish super-line. No need to push for the passengers, especially since while they both played better with Aho, he was actually slightly better with other veteran, more-defensively-responsible, linemates that year.

I hope both Laine and Puljujarvi buy Aho a steak dinner whenever they're in town...he boosted their draft position and made them a few million extra dollars in their careers. They owe it to him. I see no reason to repeat the Puljujarvi error however.

I mean right now our 2nd line is gonna look something like KK - Jarvis - Roslovic? I wouldn't be thrilled about Laine exactly but Laine - KK - Jarvy would be a significant improvement for our 2nd line

 

[spockBokk]

I’d be all for them taking a chance on Laine, but I don’t think that has really anything to do with Jarvis. If Jarvis will take an $8Mx8yr deal or thereabouts, that’s what will take up the rest of their cap space. I doubt they’re trying to get Jarvis on a bridge deal just to be in a better position to acquire Laine’s deal, or something like that.

 

[bleedgreen]

I also think you’re thinking pretty short sighted, while the Canes management is game planning for the long term. We tried with Guentzel, TT didn’t make sense as a long term piece, and nothing else that was available really made sense as a top 6 forward piece this offseason.

We were one season away from having 0 defense under contract. This offseason addressed that. There’s now stability on the backend for next few seasons with (4) guys on 3+ year long contracts, and Nikishin incoming too.

Orlov & Burns come off the books next season freeing up $13M in cap space. You can almost guarantee that some of that free’d up cap space will get allocated to a top 6 forward, someone that’s hopefully comparable to Guentzel. If Rantanen, Marner, or Draisaitl make it to UFA you gotta imagine we’ll be all over them. I imagine on top of that we’ll search for a top 6/9 guy.

In total there will be about $24M to play with for the 25/26 offseason. $28M if we buyout KK. I’ll be upset next offseason if we don’t address our top 6 issues, which is something we clearly have this year, but it was expected in my opinion

I agree with the concept of we’ll have money and we’ll look to add forwards with it but I don’t think there’s any reason to think we’ll land one of those big dogs. Burns will leave a top four righty spot, and with Chat and Walker being the other two that’s a pretty big hole. Whether we think Burns is a top pair guy or not it’s a top pair spot. Morrow isn’t going to be that imo, at least I have zero expectation he’s that guy next year. We’ll see how that goes but we’ll be lucky if he’s on the team let alone higher in the lineup than the other two. That’s a serious downgrade to the defense if we don’t find someone so I think that’s a spot they’ll look to fill. We’re not players for older high end ufa players any more than we ever have been imo.

As for a star forward like you mentioned, I don’t think just because we went after Jake we should assume this team is changing its attitude. 8x8 was never going to be enough to get Jake done. Rumor was we came close to that 8 number more than I heard we actually hit it. Jake was a special case where we felt he was the perfect fit so we tried harder than we ever did before, and still didn’t really hit market value for the guy. I don’t see that changing for Rantanen or whoever else is out there.

Trades are still the most likely way we add top six guys. Presumably someone with term than has fallen out of favor and comes as a bargain. We should also expect by the start of next season an above average righty defenseman if not someone deserving of being Slavin’s partner.

 

[CandyCanes]

I agree with the concept of we’ll have money and we’ll look to add forwards with it but I don’t think there’s any reason to think we’ll land one of those big dogs. Burns will leave a top four righty spot, and with Chat and Walker being the other two that’s a pretty big hole. Whether we think Burns is a top pair guy or not it’s a top pair spot. Morrow isn’t going to be that imo, at least I have zero expectation he’s that guy next year. We’ll see how that goes but we’ll be lucky if he’s on the team let alone higher in the lineup than the other two. That’s a serious downgrade to the defense if we don’t find someone so I think that’s a spot they’ll look to fill. We’re not players for older high end ufa players any more than we ever have been imo.

As for a star forward like you mentioned, I don’t think just because we went after Jake we should assume this team is changing its attitude. 8x8 was never going to be enough to get Jake done. Rumor was we came close to that 8 number more than I heard we actually hit it. Jake was a special case where we felt he was the perfect fit so we tried harder than we ever did before, and still didn’t really hit market value for the guy. I don’t see that changing for Rantanen or whoever else is out there.

Trades are still the most likely way we add top six guys. Presumably someone with term than has fallen out of favor and comes as a bargain. We should also expect by the start of next season an above average righty defenseman if not someone deserving of being Slavin’s partner.

I think there's players this management will make exceptions about. Guys like Rantanen, Drai, & Marner are the ones. Brock Boeser another guy we can consider. Or Crosby, but I do think he's a for sure Pen for life.

But I completely agree. I think the trade route is likely how we find our guy. And I do think we're pretty prepared to make a solid offer for a top 6 guy if he shakes loose. Hopefully our vrsion of a Tkachuk level differnce maker pops up soon for us.

Here's your 25-26 depth chart.

Forwards:
Svech - Aho - Jarvis
Nadeau? -??? - Necas
Martinook -Staal - ???
KK - Drury - Carrier

Defense
Slavin - ???
Nikishin- Walker
Ghost - Chatfield

Goalies
Kooch
??? 1a/1b goalie

We'll have around $24M cap space, here's how I'd allocate it if all goes to plan.

$3 to 5M 1b goalie
$9 to 11M Elite top 6 forward
$5 to 6M Top 4 RD to play with Slavin
*Tho I do think Walker might surprise and fit nicely next to Slavin & Morrow can than play on the 3rd pair. Potentially allocating more $ for a 2nd top 6 forward.
$3.5 to 5M For middle 6 forward

 

[NotOpie]

We should also expect by the start of next season an above average righty defenseman if not someone deserving of being Slavin’s partner.

I slightly disagree about Morrow and being a Top 4 RHD (maybe top pairing). A year or most of year in the AHL will go a long way to prepare him for a Top 4 role. Offensively and skating-wise, he's nearly capable of that now. His deficit is on the pure defensive side of things. In his 2 game audition, he clearly made mistakes, but most that I recall had more to do about gaps and not anticipating the speed. As each of the games progressed he made adjustments, but he's still not there yet.

However, having a Slavin or somebody similar baby sit him on the defensive side of things (which he's done for Dougie, Tony, and, frankly, Burns too) should not be overlooked. Playing with Slavin, in and of itself, will be an education for Morrow, should that situation materialize.

I'm not suggesting that he will be able to or should step into that/those roles. I'm merely saying I don't think it is beyond reality that the organization expects him to be ready or nearly ready for a Top 4 role.

A lot of the blue line's future, IMO, depends on Nikishin's transition to the NHL. There's no guarantee that he will be able to "just step into a Top 4 role". I'll be quite interested in his potential late season audition or the following year's training camp.

 

[spockBokk]

I slightly disagree about Morrow and being a Top 4 RHD (maybe top pairing). A year or most of year in the AHL will go a long way to prepare him for a Top 4 role. Offensively and skating-wise, he's nearly capable of that now. His deficit is on the pure defensive side of things. In his 2 game audition, he clearly made mistakes, but most that I recall had more to do about gaps and not anticipating the speed. As each of the games progressed he made adjustments, but he's still not there yet.

However, having a Slavin or somebody similar baby sit him on the defensive side of things (which he's done for Dougie, Tony, and, frankly, Burns too) should not be overlooked. Playing with Slavin, in and of itself, will be an education for Morrow, should that situation materialize.

I'm not suggesting that he will be able to or should step into that/those roles. I'm merely saying I don't think it is beyond reality that the organization expects him to be ready or nearly ready for a Top 4 role.

A lot of the blue line's future, IMO, depends on Nikishin's transition to the NHL. There's no guarantee that he will be able to "just step into a Top 4 role". I'll be quite interested in his potential late season audition or the following year's training camp.

I wouldn’t discount Walker playing up with Slavin after Burns moves on next year. Then maybe Morrow or other surprise young RD (Heimosalmi? Legault?) breaking in on the 3rd pair. Right or wrong, seems like the future of the blueline really depends on Nikishin coming over and instantly being top 4 quality. That seems like a reasonable take for sure, but a lot depends on it actually coming to fruition.

Seems like they are banking a lot on Nikishin and Morrow/other RD prospect coming in next year and hitting the ground running. Again, not really unreasonable or unrealistic, just a lot has to go right.

If it all goes according to plan, they really can swing on a goalie or forward upgrade.