Roster Building XXI: It Gon' Go Down.

[Chrispy]

I certainly do think its an issue; the same result has occurred each playoffs for Carolina and the one time they go somewhat all-in with Guentzel and... thats it? I mean do they wanna win a title or is this just for consistency sake?

Being a continual ECF contender is great but I very much disagree if the picks and prospects youve had these last 3-4 years were used even for one fat run, youd have a SCF appearance

Its a fine strategy to try but eventually the talent coming in wont be there and then youll have to do exactly what youre advocating not to; overpay to get good talent like every winning team ever has

You mean like Florida’s 2022 all-in run?

Or Boston’s all-in 2023?

Going all in for a season doesn’t guarantee a thing.

 

[Chrispy]

Florida's all-in run got them Stanley Cup Finals experience

And its not about 'guaranteeing' anything; its about giving your team the best chance to win, which Carolina has yet to do at a trade deadline or in free agency

Signings like DeAngelo and pickups like Puljujarvi speak to this - its bargain bin shopping from a team thats been a top-3 Eastern contender for four years now



Kotkaniemi is the one time they chose to overspend and it was out of spite

First, Florida won one round in 2022 and then got swept by Tampa in round 2. Then they lost Chiarot and Giroux for nothing.

After that they made the choice to completely retool the team with the big trade.

Carolina’s strategy has been to maximize their chances at success long term rather than in one specific season. And with 6 straight seasons with at least one playoff series win, I’d say they are successful there.

Finally, the fact people continue to buy into “spite” is one of the great myths. Spite doesn’t make an offer sheet a month after free agency. They made the move for Kotkaniemi because they thought he was the best option left and could be a long term solution. They missed on that evaluation.

 

[DaveG]

Correct, KK was about option 5 for what they were trying to get that off-season. Saad was option #1 as a UFA, and there were a couple failed trades before they finally went the offer sheet route.

 

[Chrispy]

Thought exercise: who has helped their acquiring team more: "missed evaluation" Jesperi Kotkaniemi to Carolina, or Ryan O'Reilly to Toronto?

As a reminder, Kotkaniemi cost Carolina a 1st and a 3rd. O’Reilly cost Toronto a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 2 low prospects.

It has to be O’Reilly because Toronto went all in, right? Even if they didn’t win that year they learned how to win from a winner, right?

 

[Derailed75]

Thought exercise: who has helped their acquiring team more: "missed evaluation" Jesperi Kotkaniemi to Carolina, or Ryan O'Reilly to Toronto?

As a reminder, Kotkaniemi cost Carolina a 1st and a 3rd. O’Reilly cost Toronto a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 2 low prospects.

It has to be O’Reilly because Toronto went all in, right? Even if they didn’t win that year they learned how to win from a winner, right?

Don't forget KK can be bought out for pretty much peanuts if he doesn't improve for like the next 2 seasons

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

These talking points are 2 years late. Since, they’ve tried on Tkachuk, Meier and Pettersson, and were successful acquiring Guentzel. And now they’re reportedly going against their own tendencies by offering him an 8 year contract.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

That’s fine, but you are trying to tell fans who have been Canes fans for 20 years how the team should operate. Imagine if we went to the Devils board and told you how the devils should operate. Devils fans would tell us to get lost.

Maybe read the room.

Its hockey talk - if we just played in a series thatd be rude; the Devils didnt even make the playoffs so Im not concerned with looks clearly

Im sure there are fans here who feel the same.. since ive been reading it around multiple outlets ever since they began contending

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Its hockey talk - if we just played in a series thatd be rude; the Devils didnt even make the playoffs so Im not concerned with looks clearly

Im sure there are fans here who feel the same.. since ive been reading it around multiple outlets ever since they began contending

Of course it’s hockey talk. Your comments are acting like you know what’s best for Carolina, as a fan of NJ. That’s fine, but my point is you will be treated with skepticism,

Let me ask you this, if similar comments were made in the devils forum by canes fans, would they be well received? I think not.

 

[Stickpucker]

Who are you and what team are you a fan of?

I think we're all a fan of the moist one.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Of course it’s hockey talk. Your comments are acting like you know what’s best for Carolina, as a fan of NJ. That’s fine, but my point is you will be treated with skepticism,

Let me ask you this, if similar comments were made in the devils forum by canes fans, would they be well received? I think not.

Its not about what they should do - its the only other thing you can do besides what theyve done; the issue is theyve chose to continue doing so when their rebuild is a distant memory at this point, where its expected with teams just coming up

Teams dont go all-in every year but acquiring new players on a consistent basis when necessary is common amongst contenders; hence the 'eat their cake and keep it too' comment, theyre trying to pursue the future moreso than most in their situation

Carolina isnt old either and their main parts are practically filled out; supplemental talent up and down the lineup and a goalie is something you can be using futures for

Thats it - i dont think they should do this, its the common practice in their situation.

Cap is going up now and with a prospect pool thats getting lower (as is with a contender) i imagine well see it soon enough; and Nikishin should probably get his ass over here already

I think we're all a fan of the moist one.

Monkey nuts kingpin

 

[Derailed75]

Its not about what they should do - its the only other thing you can do besides what theyve done; the issue is theyve chose to continue doing so when their rebuild is a distant memory at this point, where its expected with teams just coming up

Teams dont go all-in every year but acquiring new players on a consistent basis when necessary is common amongst contenders; hence the 'eat their cake and keep it too' comment, theyre trying to pursue the future moreso than most in their situation

Carolina isnt old either and their main parts are practically filled out; supplemental talent up and down the lineup and a goalie is something you can be using futures for

Thats it - i dont think they should do this, its the common practice in their situation.

Cap is going up now and with a prospect pool thats getting lower (as is with a contender) i imagine well see it soon enough; and Nikishin should probably get his ass over here already


Monkey nuts kingpin

You obviously don't know much about this ownership group if you are throwing out "its common practice" they have their own way of doing things and its set team records for points, wins, straight playoff appearances, and winning playoff series.

I feel like you will need a better argument than its common practice for them to change their ways

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

You obviously don't know much about this ownership group if you are throwing out "its common practice" they have their own way of doing things and its set team records for points, wins, straight playoff appearances, and winning playoff series.

I feel like you will need a better argument than its common practice for them to change their ways

The argument is they havent gotten over the hump and arent retaining talent nor bringing in as much as most

Sure they can definitely do it without changing up but why take that chance? Theres a new draft of picks every year and Carolina is good as producing talent

 

[LakeLivin]

Its not about what they should do - its the only other thing you can do besides what theyve done; the issue is theyve chose to continue doing so when their rebuild is a distant memory at this point, where its expected with teams just coming up

Teams dont go all-in every year but acquiring new players on a consistent basis when necessary is common amongst contenders; hence the 'eat their cake and keep it too' comment, theyre trying to pursue the future moreso than most in their situation

Carolina isnt old either and their main parts are practically filled out; supplemental talent up and down the lineup and a goalie is something you can be using futures for

Thats it - i dont think they should do this, its the common practice in their situation.

Cap is going up now and with a prospect pool thats getting lower (as is with a contender) i imagine well see it soon enough; and Nikishin should probably get his ass over here already


Monkey nuts kingpin

Couple points:

The Borg seems to like to acquire new players before the season begins rather than at the trade deadline. Last year they picked up two of the top available UFAs in Orlov and Bunting.

Even taking into account the above, they've aggressively pursued big acquisitions at the deadline. But they're managing for both the short and long term, and many Canes fans are glad they're staying disciplined instead of panicking and paying whatever price necessary regardless of the calculus of their cost/risk/reward equation. Take a look across all teams making large acquisitions at the TD and tell me how many, in retrospect, would rather have kept the assets they paid if they could do it over? Because that high cost only pays off for one team (maybe two if you count just making the Cup finals as a win).

What goalie should they have gone after that would have improved on the Freddie / Kooch pairing, and at what cost? It's easy to monday morning QB on Freddie falling down in the Rangers series, but he looked damn good before that.

You talk about "the common practice" in a certain situation. The Borg doesn't operate according to common NHL practices. Look at the extent to which they've turned the Canes franchise around in a relatively short period of time and you might appreciate why many of us Canes fans are glad they don't.

 

[Derailed75]

The argument is they havent gotten over the hump and arent retaining talent nor bringing in as much as most

Sure they can definitely do it without changing up but why take that chance? Theres a new draft of picks every year and Carolina is good as producing talent

Exactly so why go all in and hurt your chances of making the dance the next few years for one "all in" attempt that either hurts your cap or your prospect pool.

 

[LakeLivin]

The argument is they havent gotten over the hump and arent retaining talent nor bringing in as much as most

Sure they can definitely do it without changing up but why take that chance? Theres a new draft of picks every year and Carolina is good as producing talent

Some ( not just you, some Canes fans on here as well) seem have an underlying feeling that the Canes can win the Cup if they just make the right moves and go all in. But each year 31 teams teams don't get over the hump, regardless of what they do. And if they you think about it, hockey is a sport where, more than any other, random factors can play a major role in the outcome of any game. A rut in the ice, a weird bounce off the boards, 1/2" difference in where the puck hits the post, a ref's call, etc, etc.

Before the playoffs start, what are the highest odds of the best teams to win the Cup, maybe low 20%? That's the likely max a team can get up to regardless of TD acquisitions. I'd bet the Borg looks at how much an acquisition raises the odds of the Canes winning a Cup in a particular year and compares it against how much losing the assets required to get that player will potentially decrease the odds of winning a Cup in the future, maybe across multiple years. Futures can be used to upgrade the roster down the line, you might give up prospects that could have raised it a couple percentage points across multiple years, etc. The Borg does their math and decides accordingly. They decided it was worth it to pick up Guentzel this year. They're trying to bring him back but if their cost/ benefit model suggests that his demands would mean their assets would be better used elsewhere to increase their chances to win the Cup at some point in the future they have the discipline to pass. These aren't real numbers, just throwing them out there as an example to illustrate the principle: 6 shots with a 18% chance of winning the cup are better than 1 shot with a 21% chance and 5 with a 16% chance.

Also, keep in mind that even though they're spending to the cap, one contract can impact the team culture when it comes to salaries. Imo, Aho and Slavin (reportedly about to) accepted a team discount, presumably in large part to allow the team to maximize the talent on the ice elsewhere in order to win the Cup. How willing to you think others would be to do the same if the Canes went all "Leafs" on, say, a Guentzel contract?

tldr: there are a lot of moving pieces the Borg is considering that you may not even be aware of. They haven't been perfect (KK, cough, cough) but overall I like the franchises direction.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Lamenting the loss of Maurice 13 years ago? Yeah, it’s definitely the offseason.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Statistically speaking, it's foolish to ever go "All in".

There's 32 teams, so assuming everything is equal (which we know it isn't), every team has a 1/32 chance of winning the Cup every year.

But let's shorten that to just playoff teams. So playoff teams have a 1/16 chance of winning the Cup. And this pool is much closer to being equal, since we've seen an 8th seed make the Finals (Florida a couple years ago) and win the Cup (LA). So come April, every playoff team has a 6.25% of winning the Cup, or essentially a 94% chance of not winning the Cup. Why in the world would you risk damaging your future chances by going "All in"?

Now, some teams, there's less risk involved. The Rangers, for example, can trade draft picks and prospects from now until 2030 with little to no worry, because they're always a premier destination for trades/FA. But for a team like Carolina? They need those picks/prospects to maintain their window, because they're not likely to compete monetarily or destination-wise with the likes of the Rangers or Toronto or Vegas.

 

[Lucky Lindy]

Should just go and sign Corey Perry, just to get to the final (and lose it).

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Should just go and sign Corey Perry, just to get to the final (and lose it).

No, we should sign Skinner to win the Cup. It's got some kind of magnetic attraction to former Sabres.

 

[SlavinAway]

No, we should sign Skinner to win the Cup. It's got some kind of magnetic attraction to former Sabres.

As someone said on the main board, with Skinner having 1000+ games and no playoffs. This would be the 'unstoppable force meets unmovable object' scenario.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Skinner is still going to get 3.5-4 million on the open market on a 1 year deal. He isnt going to take league minimum

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Hearing the stuff going around about Pesce, Matt Roy, Montour, and other RHD options in UFA, I feel as if there's going to be a lot of drunkards this UFA cycle. Every time the salary cap goes up, there's radically irresponsible UFA spending immediately proceeding it, the crystalization of that being 2016. The Canes, however, still have a bunch of draft capital. Now's the best time to use some of it to trade for reinforcements.

 

[SlavinAway]

Hearing the stuff going around about Pesce, Matt Roy, Montour, and other RHD options in UFA, I feel as if there's going to be a lot of drunkards this UFA cycle. Every time the salary cap goes up, there's radically irresponsible UFA spending immediately proceeding it, the crystalization of that being 2016. The Canes, however, still have a bunch of draft capital. Now's the best time to use some of it to trade for reinforcements.

Who are some of the options to be our next Skjei?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Who are some of the options to be our next Skjei?

The Canes don't really need the next "the next Skjei" with Orlov in tow, but if the RHD market is too inflated, I could genuinely see the Canes run a deep left-side again, trade for a guy like Ferraro, and run Slavin, Burns, Orlov, and Ferraro as the top-4 in terms of ice time.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Should just go and sign Corey Perry, just to get to the final (and lose it).

Whose mom is he going to sleep with?