uh oh.... the spreadsheet came out to see how much money we really have against the cap to fill out the roster... seeing too many options that dont seem to add up in terms of the math and the hard cap....
current under contract players that they or equivalent contract dollar players will fill those roles on a final team:
assumes:
- Unger Sorum on the team kind of in new entry level deal version of Turbo kind of role given sizes of the two player and skill set of more playmaking than sniper...
- Lemieux as the 13th extra forward doing injury fill in and change up the roster for a game or two depending on team performances...
- this assumes Morrow stays with big club as inexpensive entry level contract in 3rd pair 5v5 role and some PP time... but Im not convinced of this and instead think the morrow spot should be labelled "cheap vet dman" as we need someone about the league min level price wise to make the cap work overall... Morrow just did not look ready to just jump into a full time NHL d spot based on how he was playing in college this past season... he looked a lot more like he did in Morrow's last game with the many brain cramps and goals against rather than the decent play he had in his first game with us in his debut...
- Smith or an equivalent league min guy is the extra 7th dman almost purely due to their salary cap hit... we wont have a 7th dmen costing $4M per year sitting in the press box all season...
- I left Martin on the active roster counting against the cap in all scenarios because the last few seasons have proven we almost always need 3 goalies across the entire season due to injury issues with all our goalies... we might send him down for some short stretches but I expect 80% of the season will have 3 goalies counting against the cap and we can do that because of how inexpensive our total cost for all 3 goalies are compared to other teams.
So $25.7M left after accounting for 8 of 13 forwards, 6 of 7 dmen and the goalies. Still have to pay Jarvis, resolve the Necas situation and then fill a couple open spots either by re-signing our UFAs before they hit the market, or get equivalent guys in free agency..
Now throw in a couple guesses to see how much we really have to spend:
this version tries to bring back as many of the roster from last year as reasonably possible....
- Jarvis gets a reasonable Svech deal coming off entry level with no arb rights or anything....
- Martinook gets a slight raise and a 3 year deal to get him to come back... this might not actually happen as there is a lot of reporting out there that the Martinook like glue players that can play a bit more physically and forecheck and pop in a few will get paid a premium this off season... its why i didn't even include Noesen as he is not coming back here for league min compared to what he will be paid on the open market...
- Drury gets a bump on his expired entry deal by getting a 2 year bridge deal
- we ask Comtois to be the new Noesen by being league min and being the more physical 4th liner that will get a chance to be net front and get some garbage goals on the PP...
- finally, Necas (on a 2 year team forcd arb award to run him to UFA assuming we dont get enough in trade offers to make it worth giving up 2 years of his play on our forward roster)...
- both versions of the roster and the cap hits assume Orlov/Chatfield is the new second pair...
- still missing bottom pair dman and how we will strategize to handle that... the names may not actually be the players that fill #5,#6, and the #7 press box dman... but if we keep Necas and pay Jarvis, we likely can't go out and get a Roy or a DeMelo or high end UFA dman... both in the term and in teh dollars they will want... dont want to completely block teh path for Morrow and Nikishin past this year if we sign a 5 or 6 year deal with a high end UFA dman.... its partly why we are losing out current 2nd pairing of dmen.
biggest thing is that it is clear that there is just no salary cap room to pay Jarvis, bring back Guentzel or another high end, expensive forward and also hold onto Necas and have any hope of fitting it all under the salary cap without messing with the rest of the existing contracted players on the roster and creating even more turnover...
current under contract players that they or equivalent contract dollar players will fill those roles on a final team:
| FORWARDS | 2024-25 |
| Aho, Sebastian | $9,750,000 |
| Svechnikov, Andrei | $7,750,000 |
| Kotkaniemi, Jesperi | $4,820,000 |
| Kuznetsov, Evegeny | $3,900,000 |
| Staal, Jordan "C" | $2,900,000 |
| Fast, Jesper | $2,400,000 |
| Unger Sörum, Felix | $831,667 |
| Lemieux, Brendan | $775,000 |
| Comtois, Maxime | RFA |
| Jarvis, Seth | RFA |
| Martinook, Jordan "A" | UFA |
| Drury, Jack | RFA |
| Necas, Martin | Arbitration EligibleRFA |
| Total | $33,126,667 |
| DEFENSE | 2024-25 |
| Orlov, Dmitri | $7,750,000 |
| Slavin, Jaccob "A" | $5,300,000 |
| Burns, Brent | $5,280,000 |
| Chatfield, Jalen | $3,000,000 |
| Morrow, Scott | $916,667 |
| #5 left dman | $0 |
| #7 dman - Smith or league min equiv. | $775,000 |
| Total | $23,021,667 |
| GOALIES | 2024-25 |
| Andersen, Frederik | $3,400,000 |
| Kochetkov, Pyotr ** | $2,000,000 |
| Martin, Spencer | $775,000 |
| Total | $6,175,000 |
| Grand Total Salary Cap for all Players | $62,323,334 |
| Salary Cap for 2024 - 2025 Season | $88,000,000 |
| Current Salary Cap Space | $25,676,666 |
assumes:
- Unger Sorum on the team kind of in new entry level deal version of Turbo kind of role given sizes of the two player and skill set of more playmaking than sniper...
- Lemieux as the 13th extra forward doing injury fill in and change up the roster for a game or two depending on team performances...
- this assumes Morrow stays with big club as inexpensive entry level contract in 3rd pair 5v5 role and some PP time... but Im not convinced of this and instead think the morrow spot should be labelled "cheap vet dman" as we need someone about the league min level price wise to make the cap work overall... Morrow just did not look ready to just jump into a full time NHL d spot based on how he was playing in college this past season... he looked a lot more like he did in Morrow's last game with the many brain cramps and goals against rather than the decent play he had in his first game with us in his debut...
- Smith or an equivalent league min guy is the extra 7th dman almost purely due to their salary cap hit... we wont have a 7th dmen costing $4M per year sitting in the press box all season...
- I left Martin on the active roster counting against the cap in all scenarios because the last few seasons have proven we almost always need 3 goalies across the entire season due to injury issues with all our goalies... we might send him down for some short stretches but I expect 80% of the season will have 3 goalies counting against the cap and we can do that because of how inexpensive our total cost for all 3 goalies are compared to other teams.
So $25.7M left after accounting for 8 of 13 forwards, 6 of 7 dmen and the goalies. Still have to pay Jarvis, resolve the Necas situation and then fill a couple open spots either by re-signing our UFAs before they hit the market, or get equivalent guys in free agency..
Now throw in a couple guesses to see how much we really have to spend:
| FORWARDS | 2024-25 |
| Aho, Sebastian | $9,750,000.00 |
| Jarvis, Seth | $7,775,000.00 |
| Svechnikov, Andrei | $7,750,000.00 |
| Necas, Martin | $7,000,000.00 |
| Kotkaniemi, Jesperi | $4,820,000.00 |
| Kuznetsov, Evegeny | $3,900,000.00 |
| Staal, Jordan "C" | $2,900,000.00 |
| Fast, Jesper | $2,400,000.00 |
| Martinook, Jordan "A" | $2,400,000.00 |
| Drury, Jack | $1,750,000.00 |
| Unger Sörum, Felix | $831,667.00 |
| Lemieux, Brendan | $775,000.00 |
| Comtois, Maxime | $775,000.00 |
| Total | $52,826,667 |
| DEFENSE | 2024-25 |
| Orlov, Dmitri | $7,750,000 |
| Slavin, Jaccob "A" | $5,300,000 |
| Burns, Brent | $5,280,000 |
| Chatfield, Jalen | $3,000,000 |
| Morrow, Scott | $916,667 |
| #5 left dman | $0 |
| #7 dman - Smith or league min equiv. | $775,000 |
| Total | $23,021,667 |
| GOALIES | 2024-25 |
| Andersen, Frederik | $3,400,000 |
| Kochetkov, Pyotr ** | $2,000,000 |
| Martin, Spencer | $775,000 |
| Total | $6,175,000 |
| Grand Total Salary Cap for all Players | $82,023,334 |
| Salary Cap for 2023 - 2024 Season | $88,000,000 |
| Current Salary Cap Space | $5,976,666 |
this version tries to bring back as many of the roster from last year as reasonably possible....
- Jarvis gets a reasonable Svech deal coming off entry level with no arb rights or anything....
- Martinook gets a slight raise and a 3 year deal to get him to come back... this might not actually happen as there is a lot of reporting out there that the Martinook like glue players that can play a bit more physically and forecheck and pop in a few will get paid a premium this off season... its why i didn't even include Noesen as he is not coming back here for league min compared to what he will be paid on the open market...
- Drury gets a bump on his expired entry deal by getting a 2 year bridge deal
- we ask Comtois to be the new Noesen by being league min and being the more physical 4th liner that will get a chance to be net front and get some garbage goals on the PP...
- finally, Necas (on a 2 year team forcd arb award to run him to UFA assuming we dont get enough in trade offers to make it worth giving up 2 years of his play on our forward roster)...
- both versions of the roster and the cap hits assume Orlov/Chatfield is the new second pair...
- still missing bottom pair dman and how we will strategize to handle that... the names may not actually be the players that fill #5,#6, and the #7 press box dman... but if we keep Necas and pay Jarvis, we likely can't go out and get a Roy or a DeMelo or high end UFA dman... both in the term and in teh dollars they will want... dont want to completely block teh path for Morrow and Nikishin past this year if we sign a 5 or 6 year deal with a high end UFA dman.... its partly why we are losing out current 2nd pairing of dmen.
biggest thing is that it is clear that there is just no salary cap room to pay Jarvis, bring back Guentzel or another high end, expensive forward and also hold onto Necas and have any hope of fitting it all under the salary cap without messing with the rest of the existing contracted players on the roster and creating even more turnover...
