Roster Building XXI: It Gon' Go Down.

[User13452]

That's AFP's projection. Evolving Hockey projects 6x6.5M.

Right I read that wrong. I imagine it comes in final number over 6

 

[Svechhammer]

I mean the last few years of the potential Pesce deal will be rough for NJ, but that also could be a ripe candidate for LTIR abuse to wipe his cap hit away every year.

But the first couple years, that would be a very good defense, especially if he's somehow able to stay healthy.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Right I read that wrong. I imagine it comes in final number over 6

Yeah, if the AAV was 5.5M, Pesce would be staying a Cane. It's not that far off from Carolina's original offer. Almost certainly this rumored contract is going to be far more expensive.

 

[bleedgreen]

i dont pay for the site but I see 5 Winnipeg icons in the goalie's best friend box meaning they allow the least amount of passes and HD shots off of rush attempts. based on Demelo's play its a good bet he is one of those 5.


seeing how there are people calling to trade Hamilton, i dont think that could be true or false. its still an overpay based on what has been produced on the ice so far.

Fans on a message board hardly qualify as proof of team satisfaction. Again, I think the team would disagree about what’s been produced on the ice. Hes shown what he can do, and that fits in very well with the rest of the team. He’s been exactly what they hoped for, of course they wish he played more last year but injuries happen and he’s got a few years left in his prime. Hughes and other defensive injuries as well as goaltending left them short this season. If they’re healthy next year they could easily go as deep as we typically do if not more.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Fans on a message board hardly qualify as proof of team satisfaction. Again, I think the team would disagree about what’s been produced on the ice. Hes shown what he can do, and that fits in very well with the rest of the team. He’s been exactly what they hoped for, of course they wish he played more last year but injuries happen and he’s got a few years left in his prime. Hughes and other defensive injuries as well as goaltending left them short this season. If they’re healthy next year they could easily go as deep as we typically do if not more.

i don’t know how we could say they got what they want when bringing him in. He’s had 1 healthy season and they have 1 playoff series win.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

i don’t know how we could say they got what they want when bringing him in. He’s had 1 healthy season and they have 1 playoff series win.

He's got 120 points in 164 games as a Devil. That's the kind of production they were looking for from him.

 

[HisIceness]

Was really hoping some team out West would take on Pesce.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He's got 120 points in 164 games as a Devil. That's the kind of production they were looking for from him.

Well that doesn’t negate the injuries or lack of playoff success. 4 points in 12 games and a -11. Lol

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Well that doesn’t negate the injuries or lack of playoff success. 4 points in 12 games and a -11. Lol

Injuries happen. That’s hockey. Not much one can do about it. As long as it’s not hampering him while he’s healthy (and again, 120 points in 164 games) and as long as it doesn’t become a reoccurring problem, I don’t see why they’d be unhappy.

As far as playoff success, they’ve made it once in the 3 years he’s been there, and everyone (including Devil fans) know a major reason Carolina let him go was because of his playoff performance. So again, not much to be unhappy about there.

You’re just looking for a reason to be contradictory. Again.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I don't think it's unreasonable to say that NJ wouldn't be completely satisfied with how Dougie has gone so far. They probably would have expected/hoped to make the playoffs twice (last two seasons) since signing him and only made it once, in large part because of a Dougie injury. The whole point of signing these deals that probably won't age well is getting value in the important moments on the front end. He hasn't fully been able to deliver on that.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Injuries happen. That’s hockey. Not much one can do about it. As long as it’s not hampering him while he’s healthy (and again, 120 points in 164 games) and as long as it doesn’t become a reoccurring problem, I don’t see why they’d be unhappy.

As far as playoff success, they’ve made it once in the 3 years he’s been there, and everyone (including Devil fans) know a major reason Carolina let him go was because of his playoff performance. So again, not much to be unhappy about there.

You’re just looking for a reason to be contradictory. Again.

Nah you pay a guy 9 million a year to be big in the playoffs. He is just Hamilton instead

 

[NotOpie]

you are not alone with that. Pesce looked slower last season and unfortunately he has a troubling injury history.

this is setting up to a be wild offseason given the number of FA's. good news is Canes have around $22M of availability, not counting Chatfield deal. they have plenty of room for 1-2 big contracts so there should be a plan in the event they lose Guentzel, pesce, skjei and TT to FA and Necas via trade. GMs should not care about handing out long term deals if the owner is willing since they(GM) will likely be gone by the time the contract(s) runs out. to me, if Canes behave like penny pinchers this offseason then it's on Dundon. I have some concerns that his ego will derail the team's success at some point but track record so far has been exceptional.

we'll see.

When you look at the salary cap, the realistic number of remaining space is a bit over $28 million. You have to back out Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, and Seeley. That leaves 14 roster slots filled and assumes Morrow is on the big club (backing out Spencer Martin's $775,000). That means there are 8 spots (6 forwards & 2 defensemen) to fill to get to a 22 man roster.

There are a number of ways to slice and dice those last slots. From that $28 million, we'll likely spend $14 million to $16 million for two forwards to flesh out the top 6 (assuming that Kuznetsov or Kotkaniemi is the 2C for now). That also assumes that one of those guys is Jarvis.

If Orlov and Chatfield are the second pairing, then that ameliorates the need for an expensive defender. Regardless that leaves about $12 million for 6 guys. I'd say for the 13th forward, you're likely looking at under $1 million and a little over $1 million for the 7th defender. So 4 guys, $10 million left. Maybe you revisit Skjei at around $7 million, but that puts you at $3 million for 3 guys. And, frankly, I'm not sure we could get Skjei for $7 million.

I think they will pick up a $4.5 million to $5.5 million player as a moderate (40 point guy) scorer on the 3rd line or as a 2nd/3rd pairing tweener, probably the latter. At the high end you've got $4.5 million left for 3 guys. You can pay a guy like Jordan Martinook $2.5 million and you've got your 3rd line back. Fill out the 4th line with the rest.

In the end, all the new guys are likely a mix of trade return and UFAs. So, in my 2nd scenario, there's no Skjei, Pesce, Teravainen. If Drury will take a modest increase, he still fits. Unless Necas is one of the 2nd line forwards, the trade rumors will be self-fulfilling.

 

[moses malone 12]

When you look at the salary cap, the realistic number of remaining space is a bit over $28 million. You have to back out Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, and Seeley. That leaves 14 roster slots filled and assumes Morrow is on the big club (backing out Spencer Martin's $775,000). That means there are 8 spots (6 forwards & 2 defensemen) to fill to get to a 22 man roster.

There are a number of ways to slice and dice those last slots. From that $28 million, we'll likely spend $14 million to $16 million for two forwards to flesh out the top 6 (assuming that Kuznetsov or Kotkaniemi is the 2C for now). That also assumes that one of those guys is Jarvis.

If Orlov and Chatfield are the second pairing, then that ameliorates the need for an expensive defender. Regardless that leaves about $12 million for 6 guys. I'd say for the 13th forward, you're likely looking at under $1 million and a little over $1 million for the 7th defender. So 4 guys, $10 million left. Maybe you revisit Skjei at around $7 million, but that puts you at $3 million for 3 guys. And, frankly, I'm not sure we could get Skjei for $7 million.

I think they will pick up a $4.5 million to $5.5 million player as a moderate (40 point guy) scorer on the 3rd line or as a 2nd/3rd pairing tweener, probably the latter. At the high end you've got $4.5 million left for 3 guys. You can pay a guy like Jordan Martinook $2.5 million and you've got your 3rd line back. Fill out the 4th line with the rest.

In the end, all the new guys are likely a mix of trade return and UFAs. So, in my 2nd scenario, there's no Skjei, Pesce, Teravainen. If Drury will take a modest increase, he still fits. Unless Necas is one of the 2nd line forwards, the trade rumors will be self-fulfilling.

great analysis. thank you.

the money for two top six forwards at $16M max suggests guentzel needs to be the other target unless you can secure a top forward with a big contract in a necas trade (brady tchacuk perhaps) or another FA forward. I think this analysis would ultimately reveal that Guentzel needs to be resigned even after considering marschesault as a replacement.

a lot riding on this offseason. don't be shocked if donnie waddell tries to blow things up with big offers for some of our FA's.

 

[User13452]

When you look at the salary cap, the realistic number of remaining space is a bit over $28 million. You have to back out Nadeau, Blake, Suzuki, and Seeley. That leaves 14 roster slots filled and assumes Morrow is on the big club (backing out Spencer Martin's $775,000). That means there are 8 spots (6 forwards & 2 defensemen) to fill to get to a 22 man roster.

There are a number of ways to slice and dice those last slots. From that $28 million, we'll likely spend $14 million to $16 million for two forwards to flesh out the top 6 (assuming that Kuznetsov or Kotkaniemi is the 2C for now). That also assumes that one of those guys is Jarvis.

If Orlov and Chatfield are the second pairing, then that ameliorates the need for an expensive defender. Regardless that leaves about $12 million for 6 guys. I'd say for the 13th forward, you're likely looking at under $1 million and a little over $1 million for the 7th defender. So 4 guys, $10 million left. Maybe you revisit Skjei at around $7 million, but that puts you at $3 million for 3 guys. And, frankly, I'm not sure we could get Skjei for $7 million.

I think they will pick up a $4.5 million to $5.5 million player as a moderate (40 point guy) scorer on the 3rd line or as a 2nd/3rd pairing tweener, probably the latter. At the high end you've got $4.5 million left for 3 guys. You can pay a guy like Jordan Martinook $2.5 million and you've got your 3rd line back. Fill out the 4th line with the rest.

In the end, all the new guys are likely a mix of trade return and UFAs. So, in my 2nd scenario, there's no Skjei, Pesce, Teravainen. If Drury will take a modest increase, he still fits. Unless Necas is one of the 2nd line forwards, the trade rumors will be self-fulfilling.

IMO Necas deal either happens at the draft or he stays a cane next season. Cant have any uncertainty heading into free agency either get a deal done before July 1 or move forward with him as part of the team next year

 

[robbieberns]

Asked this on the big thread about it but is there an additional piece from NSH that would make this palatable?

 

[Stickpucker]

I'm late to the thread when are we getting Throaty McGroaty?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm late to the thread when are we getting Throaty McGroaty?

Apparently we're not. He's apparently being packaged with Ehlers at the Draft and the Islanders and Nashville are the front runners.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

My guess is the islanders. Pulock makes too much sense as a return with something else, holmstrom maybe

 

[To Be Determined]

I'm late to the thread when are we getting Throaty McGroaty?

Nancy Reagan is dead.

Oh, i misread that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He's got 120 points in 164 games as a Devil. That's the kind of production they were looking for from him.

That's a bit of a double standard. When Canes players play great, but the team fails, we criticize them and view it as a failure. When a players that move on from us have individual success but the team doesn't succeed, we think it's a success.

 

[robbieberns]

Sure gotta love the confidence that non Canes fans have when throwing out the idea that competent goaltending has been our issue in the playoffs the last couple of years

 

[Blueline Bomber]

That's a bit of a double standard. When Canes players play great, but the team fails, we criticize them and view it as a failure. When a players that move on from us have individual success but the team doesn't succeed, we think it's a success.

I'm not sure which Canes player you're referring to. I think, as a whole, we're pretty fair when it comes to our players. Those that play great are praised for their great play and criticized for any faults they may have.

Regardless, the original point was whether one thinks Devils fans are, as a whole, happy with Hamilton. And the general vibe I've gotten on this board, Twitter and Reddit is: Yeah, he's doing what we signed him to do. Wish he could stay healthy, but overall happy.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Sure gotta love the confidence that non Canes fans have when throwing out the idea that competent goaltending has been our issue in the playoffs the last couple of years

Confirmation bias. When it comes to NHL talk at a team level, it’s an exercise in box checking. If you don’t have x, you can’t win.

Fans vary about the importance of each box. Goaltending is everything to some, despite a star netminder being the box checked the least in this era.

 

[robbieberns]

Confirmation bias. When it comes to NHL talk at a team level, it’s an exercise in box checking. If you don’t have x, you can’t win.

Fans vary about the importance of each box. Goaltending is everything to some, despite a star netminder being the box checked the least in this era.

Quick, Vasi, Thomas off the top of my head in the last decade and a half. I guess measured up against a monster Bob performance sandwiched by fantastic Shesterkin displays our guys fell a bit short but definitely silly to say it’s our big weakness.

 

[Lempo]

I'm late to the thread when are we getting Throaty McGroaty?

There's no reason why the first name Rutger should be humorously misspelled like it was too difficult for the Americans.