GDT: Roster Building XVIII: Trade Deadline Week!

[User13452]

Lol. So now we were lucky because it doesn’t fit your pity party


Sweet we get to go around the carousel again because of a trade deadline. Spending big at the deadline doesn’t alter your chances of winning the cup very much. Like a couple of percentage points. Sometimes your guys score 2 goals in game 7 or sometimes they are non-consequential and you don’t make it out of the first round.

Domi did more for us to win a playoff series than Tank, Kane, etc did last season.

Would rather go into a playoff series with Guentzel then some fringe 3rd line guy

 

[User13452]

It's not complacency at all. They simply find offseason transactions better value because they can get full seasons of evaluations. What's different from Vegas vs. Carolina is that Vegas is more comfortable with swinging on large UFA contracts and sign-and-trades to upgrade their team.

It is because there’s no guarantee year to year guys get older lose a step guys get injured some guys have down years and when you have the assets to acquire what the team has been lacking for the last few years a true goal scorer you make the move to give your team the best shot to win. Who was the last 40 goal scorer this team had?

 

[hblueridgegal]

It's not complacency at all. They simply find offseason transactions better value because they can get full seasons of evaluations. What's different from Vegas vs. Carolina is that Vegas is more comfortable with swinging on large UFA contracts and sign-and-trades to upgrade their team.

I saw a study that showed the teams that have won the cup...pretty much reap the benefits for 8-10 years post-championship in merch sales, STMs, earned media, ticket prices, club valuation, etc. I would say there is value there.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Would rather go into a playoff series with Guentzel then some fringe 3rd line guy

Who is going to play better in the series? Cuz Martinook and Fast scored more goals than aho against NJ. Would I necessarily pick Martinook or Fast over Aho, heck no. Small sample sizes don’t work that way

 

[User13452]

 

[robbieberns]

At some point you have to consider the off ice bump up in morale/feel good factor with both the fan base and in the locker room that a Guentzel level acquisition would bring.

I imagine what the narratives would be and how sour fan sentiment could get in the offseason if they WLOG through another deadline and don’t make the finals again.

 

[The Faulker 27]

The Canes don't do expensive rentals. I'll believe when I see it.

 

[hangman005]

It's not complacency at all. They simply find offseason transactions better value because they can get full seasons of evaluations. What's different from Vegas vs. Carolina is that Vegas is more comfortable with swinging on large UFA contracts and sign-and-trades to upgrade their team.

It'll blow up in our faces one day, but I do love how vegas swings for the fences on anything that moves . If we get Buch you can have Guentzel.... unless we go out and grab them both.... which would be hilarious..... and again would make it even more hilarious if we missed the playoffs

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

It'll blow up in our faces one day, but I do love how vegas swings for the fences on anything that moves . If we get Buch you can have Guentzel.... unless we go out and grab them both.... which would be hilarious..... and again would make it even more hilarious if we missed the playoffs

Vegas gets guys that will extend. That’s exactly what we would aim for in a deadline acquisition. They don’t go out and spend assets wildly

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I saw a study that showed the teams that have won the cup...pretty much reap the benefits for 8-10 years post-championship in merch sales, STMs, earned media, ticket prices, club valuation, etc. I would say there is value there.

Really? Because I had season tickets the 10 years after the Canes win in 2006, and by the end I was pretty much the only STM left.

Sustained winning builds a market. Winning followed by a decade of losing gets you rumors about moving to Quebec. How soon we forget.

 

[Borsig]

Really? Because I had season tickets the 10 years after the Canes win in 2006, and by the end I was pretty much the only STM left.

Sustained winning builds a market. Winning followed by a decade of losing gets you rumors about moving to Quebec. How soon we forget.

I agree. I'd rather have sustained wining and chances for a cup for a decade rather than one shot and done

 

[spockBokk]

I still don’t think they’re going to pony up premium assets for a pure rental. If Guentzel was willing to extend, maybe. First time for everything though I suppose.

I wonder if they’re just sticking around trying to snag him cheap, after other suitors go elsewhere.

 

[moses malone 12]

Vegas gets guys that will extend. That’s exactly what we would aim for in a deadline acquisition. They don’t go out and spend assets wildly

Borsig was probably right: you are an irritant. Nevertheless, I'll play along.

Assume the canes acquire Guentzel for let's say 2024 1st rounder, Jackson Blake; and one of Ponomarev or Ryan Suzuki. Heck, lets add a 2025 2nd rounder in. explain why this deal is terrible? do you really believe the Canes will be weaker without these assets, when odds are that none of these are on the roster next year.

when evaluating this, consider the value of Guentzel as: proven playoff performer and 2x champion; legit goal scorer; and improves scoring depth by pushing a winger down the lineup.

Bottom line is no one in the hockey universe , except you, would criticize the Canes for swinging big for Guentzel. multiple hockey pundits feel he is a really good fit for this team. I agree. However and this is big, the only opinion that matters is Dundon's and I really don't understand why he has not already pivoted from the teams' philosophy re: rentals. If Guentzel makes the team potentially a lot better, and most think he does, the team should not risk losing him, particularly to the Rangers. Is there no logic to this strategy?

we have multiple years of history with deadline acquisitions and playoff performance. hard not to see that acquiring talent for scoring and improved depth is the way to go. they have tried with Domi, poolparty, ghost, et al. low-cost rentals yes but not true difference makers. Guentzel is a difference maker. I would also argue Buchnevich as a 2nd option as well.

IMO there is no downside to acquiring Guentzel. Will you honestly not root for this team if for example, Jackson Blake becomes a 30-goal player in the NHL for the Pens and the Canes lose in the first round this year? Not the desired outcome for sure however if you argue this scenario then you should also acknowledge a different outcome, which is the Canes acquire spare parts at the deadline and also lose in the first round. Even if you think the probability of outcomes are very different between these scenarios, neither would be a zero probability outcome.

 

[moses malone 12]

Really? Because I had season tickets the 10 years after the Canes win in 2006, and by the end I was pretty much the only STM left.

Sustained winning builds a market. Winning followed by a decade of losing gets you rumors about moving to Quebec. How soon we forget.

fair enough but arguing trading for a rental may devastate the team for years is beyond silly. Sustained success or failure is generally the result of many decisions regarding players, injuries, coaching. A deadline deal for a rental is not, by itself, a predictor of future doom.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

At some point you have to consider the off ice bump up in morale/feel good factor with both the fan base and in the locker room that a Guentzel level acquisition would bring.

I imagine what the narratives would be and how sour fan sentiment could get in the offseason if they WLOG through another deadline and don’t make the finals again.

I don't think they need to consider an off ice bump in morale/feel good factor for the fan base at all. In fact, I don't want a GM making moves based on feel good factors for fans; and as I mentioned earlier, it's clear that isn't how this management operates.

I'm not saying that they won't ever go get an impact player at the deadline or go after a high price rental if they feel the time is right, but they won't do it because of a "feel good factor". If they feel the time is right, the player is right and the price is right, they may do it and I would have no problem with that approach.

As for a morale boost in the locker room? Maybe. There's another side to it that if they pick someone up, one of their teammates either will be going out or sitting so there's 2 sides to it.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

fair enough but arguing trading for a rental may devastate the team for years is beyond silly. Sustained success or failure is generally the result of many decisions regarding players, injuries, coaching. A deadline deal for a rental is not, by itself, a predictor of future doom.

While I agree with this, there is a 2nd factor at play IMO. With the number of UFAs (TT, Pesce, Skjei, Chatfield, Martinook, Noesen, DeAngelo) and RFAs (Necas, Jarvis, Drury) this off season, the Canes have some tough choices to make. The next year it's Slavin, Burns and Orlov as UFAs.

Not all of these guys will be back so the Canes are either going to need to (a) use some of their youth to fill those roles (b) Uses some of their assets to backfill these roles (like the Burns trade) or (c) spend in free agency. Probably some combination of all of these.

So while I think it's true they can afford to spend some assets at the deadline and with all these upcoming UFAs, now might be the right time to go for it; the flip-side is that the next two off-seasons, more than any, the Canes will need to rely on their prospects to fill out the team, either via promotions or trades.

I'd prefer to use assets now for a guy with term (like Buchnevich) personally, but I won't complain about getting a high end rental as well, depending on the cost. I wouldn't mind typical rental returns. A 1st and mid-tier prospect (Suzuki, Rees, etc..). Not sure that's enough to beat out others.

 

[Stickpucker]

Do yall like......look at previous posts before posting?

The people you're referring to won't see this

It's not complacency at all. They simply find offseason transactions better value because they can get full seasons of evaluations. What's different from Vegas vs. Carolina is that Vegas is more comfortable with swinging on large UFA contracts and sign-and-trades to upgrade their team.

Tdlr
Vegas big brain big pp energy
Carolina big brain medium pp energy

 

[Stickpucker]

Who is going to play better in the series? Cuz Martinook and Fast scored more goals than aho against NJ. Would I necessarily pick Martinook or Fast over Aho, heck no. Small sample sizes don’t work that way

RBA would.

It'll blow up in our faces one day, but I do love how vegas swings for the fences on anything that moves . If we get Buch you can have Guentzel.... unless we go out and grab them both.... which would be hilarious..... and again would make it even more hilarious if we missed the playoffs

Jesperi Kotkaniemi moves......kind of....wanna swing big for him?

 

[hangman005]

RBA would.


Jesperi Kotkaniemi moves......kind of....wanna swing big for him?

Was that the Finn were talking about the last vegas game, the super snakebitten dude.

 

[Stickpucker]

Was that the Finn were talking about the last vegas game, the super snakebitten dude.

Yeah, someone sent a cooler to his table. Can you ask the house to let up on him so he keeps betting?

 

[hangman005]

Yeah, someone sent a cooler to his table. Can you ask the house to let up on him so he keeps betting?

Someone who can't score a goal to save his life, he'll fit right in on our Powerplay.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Borsig was probably right: you are an irritant. Nevertheless, I'll play along.

Assume the canes acquire Guentzel for let's say 2024 1st rounder, Jackson Blake; and one of Ponomarev or Ryan Suzuki. Heck, lets add a 2025 2nd rounder in. explain why this deal is terrible? do you really believe the Canes will be weaker without these assets, when odds are that none of these are on the roster next year.

when evaluating this, consider the value of Guentzel as: proven playoff performer and 2x champion; legit goal scorer; and improves scoring depth by pushing a winger down the lineup.

Bottom line is no one in the hockey universe , except you, would criticize the Canes for swinging big for Guentzel. multiple hockey pundits feel he is a really good fit for this team. I agree. However and this is big, the only opinion that matters is Dundon's and I really don't understand why he has not already pivoted from the teams' philosophy re: rentals. If Guentzel makes the team potentially a lot better, and most think he does, the team should not risk losing him, particularly to the Rangers. Is there no logic to this strategy?

we have multiple years of history with deadline acquisitions and playoff performance. hard not to see that acquiring talent for scoring and improved depth is the way to go. they have tried with Domi, poolparty, ghost, et al. low-cost rentals yes but not true difference makers. Guentzel is a difference maker. I would also argue Buchnevich as a 2nd option as well.

IMO there is no downside to acquiring Guentzel. Will you honestly not root for this team if for example, Jackson Blake becomes a 30-goal player in the NHL for the Pens and the Canes lose in the first round this year? Not the desired outcome for sure however if you argue this scenario then you should also acknowledge a different outcome, which is the Canes acquire spare parts at the deadline and also lose in the first round. Even if you think the probability of outcomes are very different between these scenarios, neither would be a zero probability outcome.

This got weird but okay. Do the folks who are mad about us “being conservative” stop rooting for the team?

I like that we try to shoot our shot wisely with guys with control or term. Guys that will extend and do are good too. Vegas does the same thing. We keep asking how come they keep having assets to pull this stuff off. One of the two reasons is they don’t do expensive rentals.

There is plenty of downside to spending big on rentals and that is for teams that run a more common system. It is even more so for us and our uncommon system. If we are lucky a deadline acquisition will be comfortable in the system to be good in 5v5 play by the playoffs.

Then you add in the playoffs are a set of 4 small sample sizes. Anything can happen in those sample sizes. You can run into a hot goalie, your guys can have a 4 game cold streak, a couple of ill timed mistakes can throw a couple of games, etc. no amount of deadline rental spending changes that.

Its silly that my fandom would be questioned if we make a move here. I have disliked plenty the management team has done even if i can rationalize it.

But giving up any prospect at Koivunens level or higher for a rental is a mistake. It just feels like the management team is getting reactionary because they have missed out on 3 guys they wanted. So, they are throwing intelligence out the window. But if just give up B- and lower prospects in the deal or he extends then this goes out the window. The concern will then turn into what did he extend for, he isn’t a spring chicken anymore

Who said anything about devastation if this was done? Oh we are using hyperbole to discredit an argument, cool.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Another thing to note. Guentzel has a 12 team NTC, so while he can't 100% dictate where he goes, he does have some say. I have no clue who is on the list that he'd have to waive for.

 

[Chrispy]

Borsig was probably right: you are an irritant. Nevertheless, I'll play along.

Assume the canes acquire Guentzel for let's say 2024 1st rounder, Jackson Blake; and one of Ponomarev or Ryan Suzuki. Heck, lets add a 2025 2nd rounder in. explain why this deal is terrible? do you really believe the Canes will be weaker without these assets, when odds are that none of these are on the roster next year.

when evaluating this, consider the value of Guentzel as: proven playoff performer and 2x champion; legit goal scorer; and improves scoring depth by pushing a winger down the lineup.

Bottom line is no one in the hockey universe , except you, would criticize the Canes for swinging big for Guentzel. multiple hockey pundits feel he is a really good fit for this team. I agree. However and this is big, the only opinion that matters is Dundon's and I really don't understand why he has not already pivoted from the teams' philosophy re: rentals. If Guentzel makes the team potentially a lot better, and most think he does, the team should not risk losing him, particularly to the Rangers. Is there no logic to this strategy?

we have multiple years of history with deadline acquisitions and playoff performance. hard not to see that acquiring talent for scoring and improved depth is the way to go. they have tried with Domi, poolparty, ghost, et al. low-cost rentals yes but not true difference makers. Guentzel is a difference maker. I would also argue Buchnevich as a 2nd option as well.

IMO there is no downside to acquiring Guentzel. Will you honestly not root for this team if for example, Jackson Blake becomes a 30-goal player in the NHL for the Pens and the Canes lose in the first round this year? Not the desired outcome for sure however if you argue this scenario then you should also acknowledge a different outcome, which is the Canes acquire spare parts at the deadline and also lose in the first round. Even if you think the probability of outcomes are very different between these scenarios, neither would be a zero probability outcome.

20 games is unlikely to change Carolina’s seeding this year. So still M2 with or without Guentzel.

Let’s say they perform as well with Guentzel. Win one round, maybe a second. Do they advance past Florida/Boston? Debatable, although unlikely they are swept. And how much Guentzel contributes in those 10-25 playoff games in a new system is a complete unknown.

Now in addition to giving raises to Jarvis and Necas, you have to decide about signing Teravainen, Noesen, Martinook, Pesce, Skjei, Chatfield, and now Guentzel. Guentzel's market price will be >=150% that of Teravainen and both will be 30 when the next contract starts. Guentzel will be commanding 6-7 years.

So you have to decide on doubling down on Guentzel with a contract that may age poorly in lieu of signing many other players. If you don't, you no longer have Blake to backfill in a year or 2. You no longer have Ponomorov to backfill at C if you want to use Drury to get a wing or D. You don't have a first round pick to either restock or pick up another player to help replace these UFAs.

You've mortgaged the medium-term for one playoff run, or you are sacrificing most of the team depth you've spent years building for one top line wing and have given up multiple pieces that would help you backfill to replace those pieces at forward and defense.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

We should dictate all moves by whether or not fans will stop being fans of the team if it blows up in our face. If they won't, we make the move.

Anyone here stopping being a fan of the team if a 3rd round pick evaporates into thin air? No? Cool - that pick is being sent to Chicago for future consideration.

With this new paradigm of move-making, we will be unstoppable!