Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[Joe McGrath]

people see what they want to see. I could point out numerous plays he made defensively the past two seasons. this is the timeframe that I view as most relevant. the kid is a special talent and he plays hard. he's not jeff skinner 2.0 defensively. far from it. he's also not soft.

Haters want him gone and that may well be the case as the team views him as a tough fit stylistically and salary cap wise. the player with the biggest flaws on this team in terms of effort, production and salary is KK. Hands down. need to deal with this issue as it impacts the team more than Necas' flaws. Frankly, I would try to resign Necas to a bridge deal and move him to 2C assuming he embrace this. that's his ticket to a massive payday.

If they thought for a second Necas could play center, he would’ve been there years ago.

I’m not saying he can’t elsewhere, but he sure as hell can’t in Carolina.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

If they thought for a second Necas could play center, he would’ve been there years ago.

I’m not saying he can’t elsewhere, but he sure as hell can’t in Carolina.

Yeah, the fact that he hasn't even sniffed at it during the preseason (I don't think) is both sad and telling. Especially given KK's struggles you'd hope Rod might give the guy a few looks in a no pressure environment just to see what happens.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I still like Necas. If they work things out with him and keep him, it may not be my preference, but I'd be fine with it. He does still bring some elements we don't have in great supply and I think he has gotten better at giving an honest defensive effot. He's not always good at it, consistent with it, and is often the cause of the play where he flies back and breaks something up, but I do think he gives the effort.

My main reasons with wanting to move on from Necas are:

• I don't think he's a core player and I think we'd have to lock him up for too long. I've said many times that I don't think as many players should be locked up for 7-8 years as seem to get it sometimes around the league. I don't think Marty should be one of those guys.
• Obviously, there are some well documented style fit issues (though at times that lack of style fit is a good thing because he gives us some of what we lack) and sometimes it's just time to move on for all sides. There's every chance he has a Lindholm type breakout (though that may have ultimately been a mirage of playing with two high end players), but that stuff doesn't bother me. I don't know that his final form is ever coming on this version of this team.
• We're at the point where it's time to try to squeeze that last bit of value out of him if he isn't going to be part of the core going forward. If they can find a creative deal like the Hamilton deal, this might be the last chance to do so.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

GVA/60 this past season:

Bunting: 2.71
Svech: 2.57
Necas: 2.33
Aho: 2.23
KK: 1.98
TT: 1.92

League Leaders in Giveaways:
Pastrnak
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Barzal
McDavid
MacKinnon
Forsberg
Marchand
Kaprizov
Panarin

Guys who carry the puck more and have possession (as Necas and Aho do) have more giveaways than guys that dump and chase.

 

[SlavinAway]

Even yesterdays Canada v Czech game, Necas could've prevented the OT goal if he had decided to back check hard after whiffing on the shot and giving up the puck.

Wait….wut?!?

Have you watched the play in question? Please do.

What comparison was made? There was no comparison. Someone made an analysis on the last goal, I think if you watch it there’s a clear error on the play that’s not Necas. That’s not a comparison.

To be fair I didn't say he missed an assignment but he absolutely could've prevented the goal when Pasta missed his had he backchecked hard. There was no 3rd man to prevent as his own teammate was the next man into the zone.

My point being that I think if that's Jarvis the play gets broken up; and the giveaway wasn't a bad pass to him or a blocked shot, he just completely whiffed at it and left it sitting there.

I'm also not a Necas hater. Sure I get frustrated by him at times but I'm not going to be disappointed if he's on the team next year.

 

[Joe McGrath]

GVA/60 this past season:

Bunting: 2.71
Svech: 2.57
Necas: 2.33
Aho: 2.23
KK: 1.98
TT: 1.92

League Leaders in Giveaways:
Pastrnak
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Barzal
McDavid
MacKinnon
Forsberg
Marchand
Kaprizov
Panarin

Guys who carry the puck more and have possession (as Necas and Aho do) have more giveaways than guys that dump and chase.

How the hell did Bunting give the puck away that much? He was supposed to stand in front of tge net and be a pain in the ass, not carry the puck.

 

[DaveG]

How the hell did Bunting give the puck away that much? He was supposed to stand in front of tge net and be a pain in the ass, not carry the puck.

dude just didn't gel with anyone in our top 6, and he was prettymuch THE guy on the Staal line or the Drury line after they figured that out. It's most definitely not his game and that's the result.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

GVA/60 this past season:

Bunting: 2.71
Svech: 2.57
Necas: 2.33
Aho: 2.23
KK: 1.98
TT: 1.92

League Leaders in Giveaways:
Pastrnak
Kucherov
Draisaitl
Barzal
McDavid
MacKinnon
Forsberg
Marchand
Kaprizov
Panarin

Guys who carry the puck more and have possession (as Necas and Aho do) have more giveaways than guys that dump and chase.

So again, guys can be forgiven for giving the puck away as long as they score enough. Aho does, Svech does (when healthy). Bunting didn't, Necas doesn't, and the other two are questionable about being on the roster next year as well.

Also, are giveaways and turnovers a different stat that's tracked?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

unfortunately the giveaway stat doesnt include all turnovers and doesnt include the chances created from them.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

 

[Joe McGrath]

Now do the Rangers series. And the whole season. One 5 game series isn’t enough data for something like that though it does match the eye test that Svech was everywhere.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Now do the Rangers series. And the whole season. One 5 game series isn’t enough data for something like that though it does match the eye test that Svech was everywhere.

I imagine the Rangers series will have a much better result for Necas and the Aho line, while Staal and KK drop off a cliff.

 

[Buenos Necas]

I doubt they're willing to move on from him just yet, but I wonder if Francis is still enough of a Necas fan that something could be worked out involving Shane Wright. Stray thought going off the idea that a right-shot center is a priority this summer.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So again, guys can be forgiven for giving the puck away as long as they score enough. Aho does, Svech does (when healthy). Bunting didn't, Necas doesn't, and the other two are questionable about being on the roster next year as well.

Of course, but that wasn't what I posted for. You, and others, said he's a "turnover machine". The GVA data doesn't support that.

Also, are giveaways and turnovers a different stat that's tracked?

GVA are essentially unforced errors. The play in the World Cup where he lost the puck should qualify as a GVA.

I'm not sure "turnovers" are tracked nor how they could be tracked. Technically "dump and chase" would be a turnover as you are turning over the puck to the opposing team's defense. That would be no different than a guy skating it in deep before losing it, but we've been conditioned that dumping and chasing is a strategy thus ok, but skating it in and losing it is bad and a player should be dinged for it, even though in many (most?) cases it has the same result.

Also, if another player (ie Slavin) makes an outstanding play with his stick, its that really a "turnover" or is it just an outstanding play by the opposition?

I think the issue is the former. Dump and chase while losing possession is deemed a good strategy but carrying it in an losing possession is viewed as bad.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I still love the Necas/Konecny proposal from the main boards. Konecny would thrive under RBA, and has the speed that we would be losing from letting Necas go

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

unfortunately the giveaway stat doesnt include all turnovers

Neither does dump and chase, which is technically turning over then puck to the opposition.

and doesnt include the chances created from them.

That's true of any giveaway, takeaway, turnover, missed assignment, etc.. Because of that, we allow our own biases to fill in the data.

 

[bleedgreen]

I still love the Necas/Konecny proposal from the main boards. Konecny would thrive under RBA, and has the speed that we would be losing from letting Necas go

Is he not on his last year? I agree as players this would be a great trade but wouldn’t we be giving up Necas for a rental? I would think as a trade piece he could bring something a little more lasting. Though Konecny would appear to be a great fit from a distance.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Neither does dump and chase, which is technically turning over then puck to the opposition.

That's true of any giveaway, takeaway, turnover, missed assignment, etc.. Because of that, we allow our own biases to fill in the data.

Technically dump and chase is turning the puck over to the end wall and hoping you beat the opponent to it. The end wall takeaway per 60 would be legendary levels vs us

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

This, on top of KK still being the 2nd youngest player on the team, is a primary reason why I'm skeptical of a buyout. Maybe they trade him for a similarly-struggling player with a large cap hit (Laine makes sense with a small amount of retention), but that 1/3rd buyout rule can be used within 2 more offseasons, and sometimes growth is not linear, especially for centers with a larger frame. It's more likely that the Canes outright choose Guentzel over Necas to get the cap room necessary to keep either Skjei or Pesce than stick a dead cap hit, even an extremely small one, for 12 seasons.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Is he not on his last year? I agree as players this would be a great trade but wouldn’t we be giving up Necas for a rental? I would think as a trade piece he could bring something a little more lasting. Though Konecny would appear to be a great fit from a distance.

It's only a rental if he doesn't re-sign, and I imagine if they made such a deal, they'd check if he'd (at the very least) be open to signing.

My issue with the deal is it keeps Necas in division, and he will absolutely torture us if that happens.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

It's only a rental if he doesn't re-sign, and I imagine if they made such a deal, they'd check if he'd (at the very least) be open to signing.

My issue with the deal is it keeps Necas in division, and he will absolutely torture us if that happens.

I think Utah, with their boatload of draft and young-player capital, makes the most sense for a Necas trade. If I was the GM (of course not, but you know), that's the route that I would take. If Vancouver is willing to trade Garland, I would also consider a Necas trade with them considering their past interest with him.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This, on top of KK still being the 2nd youngest player on the team, is a primary reason why I'm skeptical of a buyout. Maybe they trade him for a similarly-struggling player with a large cap hit (Laine makes sense with a small amount of retention), but that 1/3rd buyout rule can be used within 2 more offseasons, and sometimes growth is not linear, especially for centers with a larger frame. It's more likely that the Canes outright choose Guentzel over Necas to get the cap room necessary to keep either Skjei or Pesce than stick a dead cap hit, even an extremely small one, for 12 seasons.

"this" is such a small sample size probably against the weakest competition to draw any valid conclusions from.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

"this" is such a small sample size probably against the weakest competition to draw any valid conclusions from.

True, but I honestly think my latter points about age and size, in particular, are bigger things. That under-26 buyout rule doesn't expire until 2 offseasons from now.

 

[SlavinAway]

I think the issue is the former. Dump and chase while losing possession is deemed a good strategy but carrying it in an losing possession is viewed as bad.

The difference is a dump isn't often going to lead to an odd man break the other way unless someone completely blows their coverage.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

KK's just doesn't work that hard. Half the time he's either looking lost or like he doesn't care. Number one rule of RBA's team is you have to work. KK's fake it till you make it has run out. I love the kid, but he'll never be a 2C on this team.