Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[bleedgreen]

When the player elects for salary arbitration, the team gets to choose the term. And when team elects for salary arbitration, the player gets to choose the term. The exception is when there's only one year to UFA, then no one can elect for 2 years arbitration.

Thanks, worth understanding this summer potentially. I think they’ll find a trade they like but if they end up in a contract dance he could go the arbitration route. He could do two one year deals in a row if the Canes chose one year, correct? I feel like Tkachuk threatened something similar to get out of Calgary at around the same age.

Honestly Necas would have to wrestle with getting 2 years at 5 million per in a system he doesn’t like and potentially losing money in the 2nd year vs taking the 1 year. Walking Necas to UFA isn’t ideal but I would take that gamble.

5 per when he’s proven to be anywhere from a 50-70 pt scorer? Arbitrators have been shown over the years to not really care about defensive flaws. They pay for points and Necas has scored. I wouldn’t assume he would only get 5.

 

[Lempo]

Thanks, worth understanding this summer potentially. I think they’ll find a trade they like but if they end up in a contract dance he could go the arbitration route. He could do two one year deals in a row if the Canes chose one year, correct? I feel like Tkachuk threatened something similar to get out of Calgary at around the same age.

There's the quirky detail that a player can be taken to the team-elected salary arbitration only once during his career. Should Canes elect for arbitration and should Necas elect one year deal, it would have implications for the next summer.

The date business for these measures is fun: the team has to elect for the club-elected salary arbitration during the 48 hours after conclusion of the Stanley Cup Final, so before the Qualifying Offers are due. Which does make sense, if the team takes he player to salary arbitration they don't have to give him the QO to retain his rights past June 30.

And the player has a shortened window to sign an Offer Sheet prior the arbitration proceedings.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I’m not super informed about the arbitration process, but I assume the Canes would point to the post-bridge, prove-it 1 year deals of Fiala, Reinhart and Bratt, all started with a 5, in a hearing.

Even a number in the 6s is not ideal for Necas.

 

[bleedgreen]

I’m not super informed about the arbitration process, but I assume the Canes would point to the post-bridge, prove-it 1 year deals of Fiala, Reinhart and Bratt, all started with a 5, in a hearing.

Even a number in the 6s is not ideal for Necas.

The cap is changing. Was it purely comparable numbers with those guys or was percentage of cap a factor? They were flat cap guys, though I forget when Reinhart happened.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Vegas won the Cup with Adin f***ing Hill and scoring goals. But that's cool. I shouldn't have treaded on the RBA pantheon.

There was a discussion/healthy debate on Sirius yesterday with hosts, analysts and callers re: the Canes and how much change was needed in order for the team to get to a cup final. One person said we have too many players that are alike with little that differentiates them from each other on the offense side especially.

Another said the team and market is a little trapped in “a cult of personality” situation that may prove to be difficult to navigate as expectations rise and if playoff results underwhelm. This was said mostly re: how long his new deal should be. Most said 2 years max and in other markets it would be that or less than based on the playoff record. All day it was hearing everyone call us a slight step above the Leafs.

 

[bleedgreen]

There was a discussion/healthy debate on Sirius yesterday with hosts, analysts and callers re: the Canes and how much change was needed in order for the team to get to a cup final. One person said we have too many players that are alike with little that differentiates them from each other on the offense side especially.

Another said the team and market is a little trapped in “a cult of personality” situation that may prove to be difficult to navigate as expectations rise and if playoff results underwhelm. This was said mostly re: how long his new deal should be. Most said 2 years max and in other markets it would be that or less than based on the playoff record. All day it was hearing everyone call us a slight step above the Leafs.

I don’t think that’s an unfair comparison, though we arrive there through completely different ways.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

There was a discussion/healthy debate on Sirius yesterday with hosts, analysts and callers re: the Canes and how much change was needed in order for the team to get to a cup final. One person said we have too many players that are alike with little that differentiates them from each other on the offense side especially.

Another said the team and market is a little trapped in “a cult of personality” situation that may prove to be difficult to navigate as expectations rise and if playoff results underwhelm. This was said mostly re: how long his new deal should be. Most said 2 years max and in other markets it would be that or less than based on the playoff record. All day it was hearing everyone call us a slight step above the Leafs.

Carolina's in a different position than the Leafs, who have regressed in the regular season and is eternally bounced in the first round. We have a long history of winning at least one playoff round and then getting goalied by an elite tender in the 2nd or 3rd round. IMO that's easier to fix than what the Leafs go through.

 

[Zilo44]

Habs fan coming in peace. We heat rumors that Necas might be available for trade.

Would you have any interest in a package around Matheson (4.8M caphit for two more years) and WPG 1st ?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The cap is changing. Was it purely comparable numbers with those guys or was percentage of cap a factor? They were flat cap guys, though I forget when Reinhart happened.

Looking at the CBA, it doesn’t go that in depth about the mechanics of contract comparables in an arbitration hearing.

Cap inflation at $87.5 mil is only 7.36% higher than the peak of the pandemic.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If we cheap out on Guentzal, I swear this team is actively trying to trip over their own feet.

Edit: Actually, reading through the comments from a lot of the potential UFAs/RFAs, the idea that “a fair deal” might not be an option from Carolina seems prevalent.

Which isn’t good.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Habs fan coming in peace. We heat rumors that Necas might be available for trade.

Would you have any interest in a package around Matheson (4.8M caphit for two more years) and WPG 1st ?

I'm pretty sure that the Canes want a RHD unless Pesce or Chatfield sticks around. But besides that, that is a very good offer. One mid-tier prospect or pick is probably enough to split the difference.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Unsurprisingly, the conspiracy theory was debunked once again.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

If we cheap out on Guentzal, I swear this team is actively trying to trip over their own feet.

I don't think that the Canes cheap out on both Guentzel and Necas. I think they will pick one and trade/let go of the other. I think that making an exception for Guentzel is the right choice, but it's understandable if the Canes don't choose to do so. Giving 7-8 years of term to anyone in their late 20s-early 30s is incredibly risky, and it's precisely why guys like Trocheck and Hamilton are on other teams despite being very good players. You have to really be sure that valuable parts of a game hold on long-term to do something like that.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I don't think that the Canes cheap out on both Guentzel and Necas. I think they will pick one and trade/let go of the other. I think that making an exception for Guentzel is the right choice, but it's understandable if the Canes don't choose to do so. Giving 7-8 years of term to anyone in their late 20s-early 30s is incredibly risky, and precisely why guys like Trocheck and Hamilton are on other teams. You have to really be sure that valuable parts of a game hold on long-term to do something like that.

Okay, but choosing Trocheck and Hamilton as examples is an interesting choice, considering both are still extremely productive after we let them walk and we’ve spent every season since they’ve left trying to replace them both. So are we lettting Guenztal go to complete the trifecta?

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Matheson is not a good fit.

Burns will likely be back as the primary offensive presence in the Top 4.

Orlov, if they wanted to try to play him off-side full time, didn’t work as a babysitter for an offensive defenseman this past season.

Major money on the 3rd pairing is something they’ve done sporadically; they went skinny down there in 21-23. The flexibility of 24 that allowed for the Orlov signing was only temporary. Maybe that works if getting out of Kotkaniemi requires rotating cap elsewhere in a dump for dump trade.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Okay, but choosing Trocheck and Hamilton as examples is an interesting choice, considering both are still extremely productive after we let them walk and we’ve spent every season since they’ve left trying to replace them both.

Cap flexibility is an under-appreciated aspect of how the Canes do business. A roster can look amazing at one moment in time with contracts like that and then look like a San Jose-esque albatross nightmare by year 5-6. We only see the right-now aspects of both of those players and not the years down the road. As good as a team like, say, the Rangers look at the moment, they have a lot of guys locked in their early 30s with NTCs and NMCs and may require a significant retool a few years from now due to their relative inflexibility.

 

[Chan790]

I don't think that the Canes cheap out on both Guentzel and Necas. I think they will pick one and trade/let go of the other. I think that making an exception for Guentzel is the right choice, but it's understandable if the Canes don't choose to do so. Giving 7-8 years of term to anyone in their late 20s-early 30s is incredibly risky, and precisely why guys like Trocheck and Hamilton are on other teams. You have to really be sure that valuable parts of a game hold on long-term to do something like that.

Guentzel is out of our control, we can only make our best effort.

Pretty sure the die is cast on Necas. I don't believe Donnie Waddell as far as a toddler could throw him. I don't think either side wants Necas to be a Cane next year. The FO wants to move him and he wants to leave. No bad blood, just a mutual interest in parting.

I put the likelihood either is here next year at 50%

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Yeah I don’t think Chatty is a shoe or to sign. He’ll probably be pretty overpaid, but that still might be cheaper than Pesce.

If the team truly believes Chatfield is ready to be a top 4 d-man on the right side then he should be a shoe in to re-sign as he’s not getting more than top 4 money anywhere.

If they don’t think that then yeah it gets a lot murkier since someone will offer him top 4 money.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Cap flexibility is an under-appreciated aspect of how the Canes do business. A roster can look amazing at one moment in time with contracts like that and then look like a San Jose-esque albatross nightmare by year 5-6. We only see the right-now aspects of both of those players and not the years down the road. As good as a team like, say, the Rangers look at the moment, they have a lot of guys locked in their early 30s with NTCs and NMCs.

Considering Dallas is still getting contributions from the likes of Duchene and Pavelski, we shouldn’t fear those long-term early 30s deals as much as you think we should. Especially if it means we get to keep a player that’s clearly working here for 5-6 before he MIGHT become an issue.

I guarantee you no one on the Rangers is worried about how Trocheck might perform 3-4 years down the line. Only that he’s carrying the team to the Cup NOW.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Considering Dallas is still getting contributions from the likes of Duchene and Pavelski, we shouldn’t fear those long-term early 30s deals as much as you think we should. Especially if it means we get to keep a player that’s clearly working here for 5-6 before he MIGHT become an issue.

Ironically, Duchene and Pavelski are prime examples of why the flexibility is smart business when the cap is flat or relatively narrow. Both were signed short-term; Duchene was just a 1x3.5M for this season after he was bought out of one of those long-term contracts; Pavelski got a 3 year deal to start and is now signing Bergeron-style year-by-year contracts.

I'm not saying that the Canes shouldn't sign Guentzel long-term, but rather that it's a tough judgment call to make if you're the kind of team that is very selective about contracts.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Unsurprisingly, the conspiracy theory was debunked once again.

Media people ask the dumbest stuff.

Actual good stuff and we ask this

 

[WreckingCrew]

With all the pending UFAs walking this year, if we're not willing to risk a contract that might look bad in 5-6 years, we're not going to land any of the big name UFAs. That means we're either relying on our current guys (TT, Pesce, Skjei, Chatty, Necas) coming back on "team-friendly" deals and ending up with the same team next year...or going bargain bin diving on leftover UFAs, slow vet players, ELC players (potentially ruining development), or crapshoot trades.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

With all the pending UFAs walking this year, if we're not willing to risk a contract that might look bad in 5-6 years, we're not going to land any of the big name UFAs. That means we're either relying on our current guys (TT, Pesce, Skjei, Chatty, Necas) coming back on "team-friendly" deals and ending up with the same team next year...or going bargain bin diving on leftover UFAs, slow vet players, ELC players (potentially ruining development), or crapshoot trades.

There is a difference in giving a guy 7-8years at age 27-28 and looking bad in the last 2 seasons and then giving it a 30 year old and it looking bad for 3-4

 

[Lempo]

Unsurprisingly, the conspiracy theory was debunked once again.

- Lempo, in your opinion, these people who are paying you millions and millions and millions of dollars... are they doing something wrong?
- No. No no no no no no. No. That's a silly question.

 

[chaz4hockey]

If the team truly believes Chatfield is ready to be a top 4 d-man on the right side then he should be a shoe in to re-sign as he’s not getting more than top 4 money anywhere.

If they don’t think that then yeah it gets a lot murkier since someone will offer him top 4 money.

Seeing Chatty in a 2nd pairing with Orlov has convinced me that despite his speed he is not strong enough to be 2nd pair material.