Roster Building XIX - Did we blow the deadline? Need to ask the magic 8-ball

[Blueline Bomber]

Ironically, Duchene and Pavelski are prime examples of why the flexibility is smart business when the cap is flat or relatively narrow. Both were signed short-term; Duchene was just a 1x3.5M for this season after he was bought out of one of those long-term contracts; Pavelski got a 3 year deal to start and is now signing Bergeron-style year-by-year contracts.

I'm not saying that the Canes shouldn't sign Guentzel long-term, but rather that it's a tough judgment call to make if you're the kind of team that is very selective about contracts.

The organization that offered KK an 8 year deal that’s got a high chance of being bought out does not get to be selective about a contract for possibly one of the best deadline pickups the organization has ever had.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The organization that offered KK an 8 year deal that’s got a high chance of being bought out does not get to be selective about a contract for possibly one of the best deadline pickups the organization has ever had.

Did I say anything about re-signing Guentzel being a bad choice? No, I didn't say that. What I'm saying is that it's a risky proposition and the Canes would be smart to be a little wary. Canes giving an 8 year contract to a 21 year old with the under-26 buyout rules and the possible projection to do more in the future is very different from giving a 30 year old an 8 year extension with buyout-proof signing bonuses for multiple years.

 

[Lempo]

The organization that offered KK an 8 year deal that’s got a high chance of being bought

The good buyout terms were an element and a pre-condition of that particular contract.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The good buyout terms were an element and a pre-condition of that particular contract.

And, again, the fact that he's an under-25 player who's actually younger than Drury.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

One note that I need to make about the Guentzel trade: it had significant value even if Guentzel walks. Without giving up a 1st, the Canes got a short-term forward upgrade AND freed 2 years of $4.5M/year cap space. The salary cap hasn't yet gone up by enough for that space to not be valuable this offseason and next.

 

[Gurglesons]

One note that I need to make about the Guentzel trade: it had significant value even if Guentzel walks. Without giving up a 1st, the Canes got a short-term forward upgrade AND freed 2 years of $4.5M/year cap space. The salary cap hasn't yet gone up by enough for that space to not be valuable this offseason and next.

And gave up nothing of value in terms of prospects.

None of the players traded to PIT are even close to "will play in the NHL". Koivunen and Ponomarev have interesting upside, but to get the best player at the deadline for a 2nd, that package while getting out of term is great work by the Canes.

My only hope on PIT's side is Ponomarev is the next Luostarinen / Nic Roy.

 

[Daeavorn]

And, again, the fact that he's an under-25 player who's actually younger than Drury.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Did I say anything about re-signing Guentzel being a bad choice? No, I didn't say that. What I'm saying is that it's a risky proposition and the Canes would be smart to be a little wary. Canes giving an 8 year contract to a 21 year old with the under-26 buyout rules and the possible projection to do more in the future is very different from giving a 30 year old an 8 year extension with buyout-proof signing bonuses for multiple years.

The point is that they gave KK that long contract when he proved very little, entirely on the possibility that he could be productive for us. And now when we have a player that has a history of being productive, that we know can fit well into our system and actually seems to want to stay with us, NOW we're going to handwring about how it might affect us 5-6 years down the line?

 

[baconandbread]

So far Necas in playoff form at the World's sailing one over the net
Side note : Former Cane Kase is playing again on Czechia as well

 

[bleedgreen]

Unsurprisingly, the conspiracy theory was debunked once again.

Im impressed someone believed it enough to bother Slavin with the question.

 

[bleedgreen]

There is a difference in giving a guy 7-8years at age 27-28 and looking bad in the last 2 seasons and then giving it a 30 year old and it looking bad for 3-4

Not if you win it all, and arguably not if you make the conference finals or cup finals a couple of times.

One note that I need to make about the Guentzel trade: it had significant value even if Guentzel walks. Without giving up a 1st, the Canes got a short-term forward upgrade AND freed 2 years of $4.5M/year cap space. The salary cap hasn't yet gone up by enough for that space to not be valuable this offseason and next.

Sure, but we’re right back looking at trying to find the next Bunting with the money that goes one year less as far as it did last year.

 

[bleedgreen]

The point is that they gave KK that long contract when he proved very little, entirely on the possibility that he could be productive for us. And now when we have a player that has a history of being productive, that we know can fit well into our system and actually seems to want to stay with us, NOW we're going to handwring about how it might affect us 5-6 years down the line?

If he was the right guy before he’s the right guy now, and he played well enough. At some point you have to sign someone who’s a risk. I wish it had been Tro but Jake would hardly be the worst guess. He can play in the system and mesh with the star we’re married to. I don’t believe it’s out of our control that much unless he truly never had any interest in us. Just have to pay him.

 

[DaveG]

Habs fan coming in peace. We heat rumors that Necas might be available for trade.

Would you have any interest in a package around Matheson (4.8M caphit for two more years) and WPG 1st ?

EASY no.

Habs don't have what we looking for on defense (young cost controlled top 4 RHD) or at forward (young top 6 PF)

 

[Buenos Necas]

The point is that they gave KK that long contract when he proved very little, entirely on the possibility that he could be productive for us. And now when we have a player that has a history of being productive, that we know can fit well into our system and actually seems to want to stay with us, NOW we're going to handwring about how it might affect us 5-6 years down the line?

I mean yeah, that's pretty much it. It's an org that rarely risks long-term cap health for short-term gain. A big reason for this is they believe they can cover in the short-term by leveraging the leftover cap space to cheaply replace the short-term needs (acquiring Burns/MaxPac for free 2 years ago or the Orlov signing) without having to risk long-term cap flexibility.

That's a good philosophy for filling out most of the roster, and it's probably the approach we should take on defense this summer. But I think there are places where they have to make exceptions if you can't reasonable expect to replace the lost production in the short-term. We've been searching for a Guentzel level forward for too long, and we now have proof of concept with Aho. If you let Guetnzel walk, what's the realistic replacement plan? You could probably keep Tuevo and Noesen for the same cap hit as Guentzel, but if that's the choice I know who I'm taking.

The 8th year is the competitive advantage here. We can use that to match the total money he would get on a 7-year UFA deal and save around $1m a year on the AAV. Push the salary and bonuses up front and minimize the risk associated with the back half of the deal.

I know they don't believe in windows, but realistically we've got a few years left of having both Aho and Slavin in their prime. You can have a super efficient cap structure all you want, but if the top end talent isn't there then it's hard to reasonably envision ever getting over the hump.

 

[MyLuckyPuck]

Put up or shut up. If the goalie is the issue, and they don't think Kochetkov is the elite answer, or long term guy, then trade him for a Markstrom or something of the same ilk. The game selection for the rotation fell out of sync early in the Rangers series (can't remember which game they should have went with Kooch but didnt) and with that, they were pot committed to to SwissCheeseerson. This was series full of errors from top to bottom.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If he was the right guy before he’s the right guy now, and he played well enough. At some point you have to sign someone who’s a risk. I wish it had been Tro but Jake would hardly be the worst guess. He can play in the system and mesh with the star we’re married to. I don’t believe it’s out of our control that much unless he truly never had any interest in us. Just have to pay him.

Maybe we should start to question Dundon's wealth again. Seems to be the easiest way for him to make a decision that should be a no-brainer.

 

[SvechneJerk]

EASY no.

Habs don't have what we looking for on defense (young cost controlled top 4 RHD) or at forward (young top 6 PF)

*cough*Slafkovsky*cough*

 

[DaveG]

*cough*Slafkovsky*cough*

I mean we can dream but that ain't happening

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Looking at RHD possibly available:

Conor Murphy: bad metrics being on a bad team and line mate for 2 seasons.
Risto: would require retaining from Philly but his defense and stick action are improved under torts. Prone to bad plays.
UFAs: roy and walker are likely outside of our range
DeMelo and Tanev will be in our zone but idk if they make it to the market
Pesce: who knows his dad believes he will get more.

I doubt Calgary has a RHD available
Hronek was propped up by Hughes’ crazy hot early start.

Chatty will be a fine regular season top 4 righty but I don’t think he is built for playoffs top 4.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Looking at RHD possibly available:

Conor Murphy: bad metrics being on a bad team and line mate for 2 seasons.
Risto: would require retaining from Philly but his defense and stick action are improved under torts. Prone to bad plays.
UFAs: roy and walker are likely outside of our range
DeMelo and Tanev will be in our zone but idk if they make it to the market
Pesce: who knows his dad believes he will get more.

I doubt Calgary has a RHD available
Hronek was propped up by Hughes’ crazy hot early start.

Chatty will be a fine regular season top 4 righty but I don’t think he is built for playoffs top 4.

I would put Alex Carrier in the discussion, as well. He may be my preference if the price on Pesce is too high. He's kind of similar to Chatfield analytically and age-wise, but on a much worse team.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I would put Alex Carrier in the discussion, as well. He may be my preference if the price on Pesce is too high. He's kind of similar to Chatfield analytically and age-wise, but on a much worse team.

Carrier is a like chatty. Fine for regular season but size is a concern for the playoffs

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Pesce had a 13 point contract year. It'll be interesting to see how that's viewed around the league. His 5v5 IPP was in the toilet. Is that bad luck or did his skating not allow him to be as much of a factor offensively? Defensive defensemen don't get the big contracts.

 

[BadgerCane58]

Could a Necas package for Tkachuk work?

I was thinking the same thing. As much as I dislike him, he is exactly what the Canes need.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Pesce had a 13 point contract year. It'll be interesting to see how that's viewed around the league. His 5v5 IPP was in the toilet. Is that bad luck or did his skating not allow him to be as much of a factor offensively? Defensive defensemen don't get the big contracts.

Pesce could pull a Shattenkirk and sign a one year deal with a Cup contender, played well in sheltered minutes, boost value, then sign a nice 3 year deal with an irrelevant non contender like Anaheim, San Jose, Chicago.

Pesce grew up a Rangers fan. Not sure if they have room, but one to watch if he goes the Cup chasing route. I believe the Sabres have had interest in him before, but not sure if he'd go there unless they overpay.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Pesce could pull a Shattenkirk and sign a one year deal with a Cup contender, played well in sheltered minutes, boost value, then sign a nice 3 year deal with an irrelevant non contender like Anaheim, San Jose, Chicago.

Pesce grew up a Rangers fan. Not sure if they have room, but one to watch if he goes the Cup chasing route. I believe the Sabres have had interest in him before, but not sure if he'd go there unless they overpay.

If he did that, he would stay in Carolina. Easily.