Was doing a little exercise in projecting the 20-21 roster cap situation. The only projected trade here is Georgiev for Kapanen (Johnssen, has the exact same cap implications fwiw) as the 3 goalie rotation makes a trade for Georgie a foregone conclusion. I think that if we trade Georgiev for another similar young NHL forward the cap number should look roughly the same. I estimated our RFA contracts for Strome (5m x 4 years), DeAngelo( 5m x 3 years) and Lemieux( 2m x 2 years) I think these are all pretty reasonable contracts for these 3 guys at this point in time. This clearly does take any consideration for players that might be returned in deadline deals for our expiring forwards (Kreider, Fast).
As you can see below, if we end up plugging any remaining holes in our lineup with players in our own system on ELCs, or if we just sign replacement level players (Ala Mckegg, DiGuiesseppe, Haley) the cap situation, while tight, will be managable for next year. I am unsure of what the cap is projected for next year, but as per a
little research it is projected to go up at the minimum $1mm to 82.5, but maybe $2mm+ for a cap ceiling of 83.5. A buyout of Marc Staal will save $2.1m against the cap (effectively 1.3m when considering Hajek/Rykov/Lindgren replacing him with their salary), a buyout of Brendan Smith only save 1.5m on the cap so if it comes to that I think he just gets buried. They could play hardball and go to arbitration again for DeAngelo or Lemiuex and save a few million on their contracts (less than ideal, as we saw what playing hardball with DeAngelo this past offfseason is costing them, but still an option if not a last resort). Of course the situation could look very different if Strome or DeAngelo (or even Buch) also get moved during the off season, but if it comes to that then theres really no point in projecting the cap as the team could have a very different makeup.
As it stands, next season should be the final season where the team should be considered having a rebuilding season. After the 20-21 season, an extra $23 million comes off the books through hank (8.5) Staal (5.7) Smith(4.35) and Shattenkirk (buyout goes from 6m to 1.4m, so 4.6 in space)). On top of that, there will be a new TV contract which could drastically change the cap landscape, as well as the expansion draft for the new Seattle team. The typicall 7F 3D 1G protection scheme leaves us losing a player like Howden, Lemieux, Lindgren. All in all, I think the roster is coming along great and am excited to see what this deadline/draft/offseason brings for the future of the franchise.
