Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVII

[Matt4776]

If they don't work out and we don't bring anyone in it definitely fails. If they don't work out and we bring in other good players to supplement them it can still end up fine.

Please explain. How so?

We end up like who?

Columbus this year snuck into the 8 spot.

On that roster, Panarin has Duchene, PLD, Atkinson, Werenski, Jones. Who will Panarin have in NY? Zibby?

If our prospects fail, and we re-sign Kreider, we are still a much worse team than Columbus currently is, and they were an 8 seed.

I think you need to be realistic about how bad we are.

 

[Thirty One]

If they don't work out and we don't bring anyone in it definitely fails. If they don't work out and we bring in other good players to supplement them it can still end up fine. Say Kakko tops out as a 2nd liner and Kravstov a 3rd line. It's not what you want but it's still two good players that will help the team. I'm not defining as "not work out" as them not being NHL players.

If Kakko is a second liner and Kravtsov is a 3rd liner, I don't think I'll feel great about having Panarin for $70-80 million.

 

[SA16]

Please explain. How so?

We end up like who?

Columbus this year snuck into the 8 spot.

On that roster, Panarin has Duchene, PLD, Atkinson, Werenski, Jones. Who will Panarin have in NY? Zibby?

If our prospects fail, and we re-sign Kreider, we are still a much worse team than Columbus currently is, and they were an 8 seed.

I think you need to be realistic about how bad we are.

They can fail and still be useful players.

 

[Matt4776]

They can fail and still be useful players.

I didn't list the "useful players" of Columbus. Otherwise, I'd have included guys like Jenner, Foligno, Bjorkstrand.etc. Maybe Buch is our Josh Anderson.

If Kakko is a 2nd, and Kravtsov is a 3rd, we don't have anyone close to the quality of Seth Jones or Werenski. Or Duchene. Or PLD. Zibby is our Atkinson I suppose. Or Duchene. Take your pick.

 

[Beacon]

Single dumbest thing you have ever posted, which is impressive.

No, the dumbest thing would be all the imbeciles here demanding we sign a player who will make ZERO difference in helping us win the Cup, and will (even if the cap wasn't an issue) cause us to move down 4-5 spots in the draft. Listen to me very carefully: nobody with IQ over 50 should care if this team gets 66 points or 77 next season. It doesn't matter. Two months after the season ends, nobody will actually remember that. Wanting Panarin is the ultimate inability to delay gratification.

There're a bunch of studies that if you offer kids 1 candy immediately or 2 candies in an hour, the kids who take 1 immediate candy grow up to be idiots: always have work problems, never have any savings, etc. The kids who delay gratification in favor of more candy in the future grow up successful, and the longer they are willing to delay gratification at the age of just 3, the more successful they are as adults - so a kid who will take 5 candies tomorrow will be far more successful than one who will accept 2 candies after only 1 hour's wait.

The reason for this is that the desire for instant gratification is the clearest sign of a sign of a low IQ. I'm not mud-slinging here, it's literally scientifically proven. If you want Panarin now, when the team is even worse than it was last season (we lost Zucc and Hayes) at the expense of a high draft pick in a strong 2020 draft and then with a second punch of a cap hit just as our kids begin to enter their prime, then you can draw your own scientific conclusions about your IQ.

 

[haohmaru]

I didn't list the "useful players" of Columbus. Otherwise, I'd have included guys like Jenner, Foligno, Bjorkstrand.etc. Maybe Buch is our Josh Anderson.

If Kakko is a 2nd, and Kravtsov is a 3rd, we don't have anyone close to the quality of Seth Jones or Werenski. Or Duchene. Or PLD. Zibby is our Atkinson I suppose. Or Duchene. Take your pick.

Where's Kreider?

 

[Matt4776]

Where's Kreider?

If our GM is smart, hopefully elsewhere.

If he's a Ranger, likely in year 3 or 7 of a 7M per year deal playing 60ish games a year.

 

[SA16]

No, the dumbest thing would be all the imbeciles here demanding we sign a player who will make ZERO difference in helping us win the Cup, and will (even if the cap wasn't an issue) cause us to move down 4-5 spots in the draft. Listen to me very carefully: nobody with IQ over 50 should care if this team gets 66 points or 77 next season. It doesn't matter. Two months after the season ends, nobody will actually remember that. Wanting Panarin is the ultimate inability to delay gratification.

There're a bunch of studies that if you offer kids 1 candy immediately or 2 candies in an hour, the kids who take 1 immediate candy grow up to be idiots: always have work problems, never have any savings, etc. The kids who delay gratification in favor of more candy in the future grow up successful, and the longer they are willing to delay gratification at the age of just 3, the more successful they are as adults - so a kid who will take 5 candies tomorrow will be far more successful than one who will accept 2 candies after only 1 hour's wait.

The reason for this is that the desire for instant gratification is the clearest sign of a sign of a low IQ. I'm not mud-slinging here, it's literally scientifically proven. If you want Panarin now, when the team is even worse than it was last season (we lost Zucc and Hayes) at the expense of a high draft pick in a strong 2020 draft and then with a second punch of a cap hit just as our kids begin to enter their prime, then you can draw your own scientific conclusions about your IQ.

I saw that survey. From what I saw the results were the kids who delayed gratifications by taking 2 pieces of candy in an hour actually grew up to have more health issues due to eating too much junk food.

 

[NYR Viper]

Here’s another option. People talk about taking on Callahan as a cap dump to make the TB 2nd their 1st this year. The Rangers could theoretically do the same thing with Dallas and either a guy like Hanzal or Nichuskin. Perhaps Dallas doesn’t make it to the WCF but they win Round 1. The GM wants to create some cap space and the Rangers want the pick to be their 1st this year. Hanzal makes $4.75m next year I believe.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Please explain. How so?

We end up like who?

Columbus this year snuck into the 8 spot.

On that roster, Panarin has Duchene, PLD, Atkinson, Werenski, Jones. Who will Panarin have in NY? Zibby?

If our prospects fail, and we re-sign Kreider, we are still a much worse team than Columbus currently is, and they were an 8 seed.

I think you need to be realistic about how bad we are.

They didn't have Duchene all season. But is Zibanejad, Kreider, Buchnevich, Kakko that much worse than PLD, Atkinson, Bjorkstrand, Foligno, Jenner etc? The defense is definitely behind but I don't expect this team to be contending next season so they have some time to fix it. And I'm higher on Shattenkirk than most so I don't think the defense is total garbage as long as Staal and Pionk have limited roles or are sitting.

 

[Irishguy42]

Here’s another option. People talk about taking on Callahan as a cap dump to make the TB 2nd their 1st this year. The Rangers could theoretically do the same thing with Dallas and either a guy like Hanzal or Nichuskin. Perhaps Dallas doesn’t make it to the WCF but they win Round 1. The GM wants to create some cap space and the Rangers want the pick to be their 1st this year. Hanzal makes $4.75m next year I believe.

Hanzal can just sit on LTIR and trading for Nuke...nah.

 

[haohmaru]

No, the dumbest thing would be all the imbeciles here demanding we sign a player who will make ZERO difference in helping us win the Cup, and will (even if the cap wasn't an issue) cause us to move down 4-5 spots in the draft. Listen to me very carefully: nobody with IQ over 50 should care if this team gets 66 points or 77 next season. It doesn't matter. Two months after the season ends, nobody will actually remember that. Wanting Panarin is the ultimate inability to delay gratification.

There're a bunch of studies that if you offer kids 1 candy immediately or 2 candies in an hour, the kids who take 1 immediate candy grow up to be idiots: always have work problems, never have any savings, etc. The kids who delay gratification in favor of more candy in the future grow up successful, and the longer they are willing to delay gratification at the age of just 3, the more successful they are as adults - so a kid who will take 5 candies tomorrow will be far more successful than one who will accept 2 candies after only 1 hour's wait.

The reason for this is that the desire for instant gratification is the clearest sign of a sign of a low IQ. I'm not mud-slinging here, it's literally scientifically proven. If you want Panarin now, when the team is even worse than it was last season (we lost Zucc and Hayes) at the expense of a high draft pick in a strong 2020 draft and then with a second punch of a cap hit just as our kids begin to enter their prime, then you can draw your own scientific conclusions.

You know what's really a sign of a low IQ? Name-calling. Like "imbeciles".

The goal of a rebuilding team is to get better. This isn't limited to the draft. It's drafting. It's hockey trades. It's free agency. It's player development. It's the right mix. It's coaching.

You don't have the slightest CLUE if Panarin puts us over the top in 3+ years or not. None. A 7 year contract isn't "immediate gratification" it's a long term commitment to a singular goal - building a contending team.

 

[duhmetreE]

You either see the cup half full or half empty.

I see it half full and with a potential deluge on the way.

 

[SA16]

Here’s another option. People talk about taking on Callahan as a cap dump to make the TB 2nd their 1st this year. The Rangers could theoretically do the same thing with Dallas and either a guy like Hanzal or Nichuskin. Perhaps Dallas doesn’t make it to the WCF but they win Round 1. The GM wants to create some cap space and the Rangers want the pick to be their 1st this year. Hanzal makes $4.75m next year I believe.

They can just put Hanzal on LTIR and buyout Nichushkin which would have a cap hit of 700k year 1 and 450k year 2. Or who knows maybe Nichushkin will just terminate the deal and go back to Russia after this disaster of a season.

 

[Matt4776]

They didn't have Duchene all season. But is Zibanejad, Kreider, Buchnevich, Kakko that much worse than PLD, Atkinson, Bjorkstrand, Foligno, Jenner etc? The defense is definitely behind but I don't expect this team to be contending next season so they have some time to fix it. And I'm higher on Shattenkirk than most so I don't think the defense is total garbage as long as Staal and Pionk have limited roles or are sitting.

But they have him and still barely made the playoffs. Do you want us to trade our 1st at next year's deadline as well?

If we keep Kreider (which would be a catastrophically short-sighted decision), Zibby, Kreider, Buch, and Kakko is still worse than Duchene, PLD, Atkinson, Bjorkstrand.etc. Our forward corps is still worse.

And that doesn't even take into account how exponentially better their defense is than ours. David Savard would be our best defenseman, nevermind Werenski or Seth Jones.

 

[haohmaru]

If our GM is smart, hopefully elsewhere.

If he's a Ranger, likely in year 3 or 7 of a 7M per year deal playing 60ish games a year.

You're still omitting him and he's on the team. Where do Kakko/Hughes fit into this? Kravstov? Will Chytil improve? Andersson? Buchnevich? Columbus went "all in" knowing they were losing two of their key guys. Not the best comparison to make. If Panarin would sign here (he probably won't) he'd be coming in knowing that the team is young and improving.

 

[Matt4776]

You're still omitting him and he's on the team. Where do Kakko/Hughes fit into this? Kravstov? Will Chytil improve? Andersson? Buchnevich? Columbus went "all in" knowing they were losing two of their key guys. Not the best comparison to make. If Panarin would sign here (he probably won't) he'd be coming in know that the team is young and improving.

I was replying to a post that said (paraphrasing) "if the young guys don't work out... we could still have a successful rebuild if we get talented guys like Panarin."

 

[effen]

Here’s another option. People talk about taking on Callahan as a cap dump to make the TB 2nd their 1st this year. The Rangers could theoretically do the same thing with Dallas and either a guy like Hanzal or Nichuskin. Perhaps Dallas doesn’t make it to the WCF but they win Round 1. The GM wants to create some cap space and the Rangers want the pick to be their 1st this year. Hanzal makes $4.75m next year I believe.

There's no org in the league that would pay $5M to move up from like 52 to 27. From a fans perspective its "free" but its still 5 million dollars.

 

[haohmaru]

I was replying to a post that said (paraphrasing) "if the young guys don't work out... we could still have a successful rebuild if we get talented guys like Panarin."

Still omitted Kreider and Buchnevich. But, yeah, Columbus made the playoffs so they probably have a better team than us this year. Makes sense to me.

 

[Matt4776]

Still omitted Kreider and Buchnevich. But, yeah, Columbus made the playoffs so they probably have a better team than us this year. Makes sense to me.

I'm saying their team without Panarin is better than our team without Panarin. Yet some people think signing Panarin is going to make us a playoff team next year with our travesty of a defense.

It's mind-boggling.

 

[SA16]

I'm saying their team without Panarin is better than our team without Panarin. Yet some people think signing Panarin is going to make us a playoff team next year with our travesty of a defense.

It's mind-boggling.

Who said signing Panarin would make us a playoff team next year? There's a reason he is going to be getting an offer for 7 years and not 1 year. And it's not outrageous to think they can be a playoff team by adding Panarin, Kakko, Kravtsov, and whoever else. The division is not particularly strong right now. It may not be the likely outcome but it certainly isn't completely out of the question.

 

[Beacon]

Just as they are prognosticating that the youth will develop faster than your timeline, you are prognosticating that they need to be 2-3-5 years older than they are now. There are a lot of 18/19/20 year olds that are impacting the NHL

Sure, some kids beat the odds, but the expectation here is not that 1 prospect is an early developer. If someone said that one of Chytil, Kravtsov or Miller breaks out early and becomes a first liner at 21, I could entertain that possibility, but the odds of ALL our kids becoming good before they are 21-22 are ZERO. Literally zero.

Do you know how bad the projections I'm arguing against are? My "pessimistic" projections are actually so optimistic, they also have zero odds of happening. I granted here that 1) nobody will be a bust, not one kid; 2) I granted that nobody will be a late bloomer; 3) in fact, I granted that most will develop earlier than most NHLers and will be good by the time they are 22-23. You know the odds of that happening? ZERO. So there, even the most pessimistic scenario discussed here is too optimistic to ever happen in real life.

We are up for a bumpy rides full of busts, late bloomers, rookie mistakes, sophomore slums. Panarin, even if the cap is not an issue, will not help us win the Cup because we will not be position to contend before he is too old to make any difference. All he will do is lower where we draft. I don't mind drafting lower if it's caused by Chytil and Kravtsov scoring. I do mind it if it's caused by a UFA.

 

[haohmaru]

I'm saying their team without Panarin is better than our team without Panarin. Yet some people think signing Panarin is going to make us a playoff team next year with our travesty of a defense.

It's mind-boggling.

Next year they won't have Duchene or Bob even if Panarin chose to sign there.

Can we be a playoff team next year if we sign Panarin? I doubt it. Everything would have to break the right way and we'd have to make a few smart (Stralman) UFA signings on the back end. Our D is a glaring issue. Has been for quite a while.

 

[duhmetreE]

But they have him and still barely made the playoffs. Do you want us to trade our 1st at next year's deadline as well?

If we keep Kreider (which would be a catastrophically short-sighted decision), Zibby, Kreider, Buch, and Kakko is still worse than Duchene, PLD, Atkinson, Bjorkstrand.etc. Our forward corps is still worse.

And that doesn't even take into account how exponentially better their defense is than ours. David Savard would be our best defenseman, nevermind Werenski or Seth Jones.

You're bending the truth. They were 16 games over .500 and had 98pts.. Usually 95+ pts gets you into the playoffs. Montreal, who had a good year, was competing with them.

Zibs is better than PLD and Atkinson. If Zibs were playing with Panarin he'd be a 40G-90pt guy. What do PLD and Atkinson do without Panarin?

CLB has some better defenders. That gap can change drastically in a year or 2. Duchene was their for 20ish games. What about Kravtsov, Chytil, Andersson, Lemiuex and Howden?

People are portraying the NYR will be the same exact team they were this year, that's either disingenuous or a fallacy. This team will improve YOY. We are currently at the bottom and are about to be on an uptrend.

 

[Matt4776]

Who said signing Panarin would make us a playoff team next year? There's a reason he is going to be getting an offer for 7 years and not 1 year.

Yeah, the reason is for Panarin to pad his bank account when he inevitably declines and is no longer worth is contract.