Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVII

[Barnaby]

Under 6M for Kreider seems WILDLY cheap to me.

Personally, I’d be shocked if he gets less than 6.5M per at least.

But, you probably have a better indication of what’s what than I, so we’ll see what happens.

I do agree with “from another team”, though, for sure. Once we won one or two, I had a feeling Kreider’s days were numbered. I’d be pretty surprised if he’s on the team come camp.

I'd guess that he'll get 7.0M, and possibly a bit more for at least 5 years. His numbers are good, not great, but salaries have risen and he is a very unique talent.

With that said, I'd rather get the assets for him that fit into our time frame. To me, his longevity is a coin flip. Is he in such great physical condition that he continues to produce at a high level for 5 years, or does he slow down and becomes not all that impactful without his elite speed/strength. I honestly don't know.

 

[SA16]

I think that might’ve been Gaborik’s contract from LA, I think the 5 year one he got from the Rangers was around or over 10%, and I think Kovalchuk’s cap hit on the long term deal was like 6 something, and it’s 6.5 on his current one,

Oh. Well that explains Kovalchuk he doesn't fit in there. It was a cap circumvention 15 year deal. If you only count his first 8 years like would be allowed today it would be a 9.875 AAV which is 16.6% of the 10-11 cap. And Gaborik's Ranger contract was 7.5 AAV which was 13.2% so in fact neither of these two players were at a top level when signed.

So I would say the only real good ones there are Atkinson (who broke out in a huge way), Marchand, and Radulov. The rest range from fine to disasters.

I believe Kreider is far more likely to fall into the group of contracts ranging from "fine to disastrous" than becoming a great value like Atkinson/Radulov/Marchand.

 

[Off Sides]

So the percentage used on those players was the correct percentage since it led to a Cup, so that percentage should be used again?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Would the Sabres be interested in Kreider? Similar situation to Oilers.

 

[Dijock94]

I'd guess that he'll get 7.0M, and possibly a bit more for at least 5 years. His numbers are good, not great, but salaries have risen and he is a very unique talent.

With that said, I'd rather get the assets for him that fit into our time frame. To me, his longevity is a coin flip. Is he in such great physical condition that he continues to produce at a high level for 5 years, or does he slow down and becomes not all that impactful without his elite speed/strength. I honestly don't know.

I would say if he does lose his elite speed which he most likely will he will be a mediocre player at best. It’s his only elite skill.

 

[Barnaby]

Stamkos in 2016.

So, in 2016 there was Stamkos. 2018 Tavares. 2019 Karlsson and Panarin.

If you include deadline/offseason sign-and-trades, you have Karlsson a second time, McDonagh, Stone. Dropping down in quality just a touch, you have Duchene available like every offseason. We'll see what happens with Marner. Hall was made available to trade. MVP.

Exactly. Panarin is the right player at the wrong time. This idea of his being a free agent a once in a lifetime opportunity is a fallacy. Never see a player like Stamkos... Never see a player like Tavares... Never see a player like Panarin... Next year we'll never see a player like Hall.

 

[Barnaby]

Are you kidding me? That was the whole ****ing point of my post. I think we all want Panarin, but it DEPENDS on the price. Would you not take Panarin for 5 years at 6-7 mil AAV if you could? That’s my point. But if he costs 10 mil+, I don’t want that. I know you highlighted the first sentence, but it seems like you stopped reading after that.

We know what the approximate price will be. Yea, if he hypothetically took 4 million a year I'd take him but he's looking at 10ish and possibly more.

I didn't want Tavares, but yea, if he hypothetically signed a 5 year deal at 4 million per year I'd be happy.

I think we are looking at this as do you want Panarin in a realistic scenario.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Would the Sabres be interested in Kreider? Similar situation to Oilers.

I don't know, but for some reason I've always pictured him wearing that uniform.

 

[Irishguy42]

Stamkos wasn't a UFA. Stop it.

 

[SA16]

STEVEN STAMKOS #91

SIGNING TEAM: Tampa Bay Lightning


SIGNING DATE: June 29, 2016

July 1 - NHL Free Agency

 

[Tawnos]

Oh. Well that explains Kovalchuk he doesn't fit in there. It was a cap circumvention 15 year deal. If you only count his first 8 years like would be allowed today it would be a 9.875 AAV which is 16.6% of the 10-11 cap. And Gaborik's Ranger contract was 7.5 AAV which was 13.2% so in fact neither of these two players were at a top level when signed.

So I would say the only real good ones there are Atkinson (who broke out in a huge way), Marchand, and Radulov. The rest range from fine to disasters.

I believe Kreider is far more likely to fall into the group of contracts ranging from "fine to disastrous" than becoming a great value like Atkinson/Radulov/Marchand.

Current contracts.

The standard for a good deal isn’t that a player outperforms his cap hit. It’s that a player at least lives up to it. As with trades, there are two separate ways to evaluate contracts. One is at the time it was signed and the other is how it turned out. The original point I was making is that Kreider fits in with who those players were at the time they signed those deals. And he does.

As for the way it turned out, there are 5 of those 18 deals that should be removed from this conversation because they’ve been too severely impacted by injury. They are Horton, Eriksson, Gaborik, Okposo, and Bolland. I don’t consider those contracts good or bad. Just unfortunate.

There are 8 that I easily consider good, either because they’re living up to their deal or outperforming it. They are Oshie, Atkinson, Steen, Foligno, Marleau, Radulov, Marchand, and Stastny.

Of the last 4. Kovalchuk really depends on what he does next year. Turris got hurt this year, he was fine last year, so the jury is still out. Backes and Lucic were fine in the first year or 2 of their deals and have become disasters since (not exactly unpredictable). Ladd has been awful, though is super injured this year.

The point I’m making here is that the perception is that these deals tend to be disasters, but from my point of view, only 3 of the 18 can really be viewed that way right now.

 

[Off Sides]

Let's use Stamkos percentage of the cap as a baseline?

 

[SA16]

Current contracts.

The standard for a good deal isn’t that a player outperforms his cap hit. It’s that a player at least lives up to it. As with trades, there are two separate ways to evaluate contracts. One is at the time it was signed and the other is how it turned out. The original point I was making is that Kreider fits in with who those players were at the time they signed those deals. And he does.

As for the way it turned out, there are 6 of those 18 deals that should be removed from this conversation because they’ve been too severely impacted by injury. They are Horton, Eriksson, Gaborik, Okposo, Ladd, and Bolland. I don’t consider those contracts good or bad. Just unfortunate.

There are 8 that I easily consider good, either because they’re living up to their deal or outperforming it. They are Oshie, Atkinson, Steen, Foligno, Marleau, Radulov, Marchand, and Stastny.

Of the last 4. Kovalchuk really depends on what he does next year. Turris got hurt this year, he was fine last year, so the jury is still out. Backes and Lucic were fine in the first year or 2 of their deals and have become disasters since (not exactly unpredictable).

The point I’m making here is that the perception is that these deals tend to be disasters, but from my point of view, only 2 of the 18 can really be viewed that way right now.

Eriksson has played 65/50/81 games.
Okposo has played 65/76/78 games.
Gaborik and Horton both had long injury histories so I would not just write them off for getting hurt. That is something that should have been expected (though not as severe of course).
Bolland also had an extensive injury history having not played much in 12/13 or 13/14 and also was a horrible deal from the get-go given that he was like a mid 30 point player getting 5.5M.
I'll give you Ladd.

Oshie/Steen/Stastny deals I would consider fine.
Marchand/Atkinson/Radulov deals are great.
Foligno is living up to his deal? For 5.5M/year I think you want more than 37/51/33/33 points even if he provides other things.

I would say you have 3 great deals. 3 fine deals. And 12 bad/horrible deals.

 

[BroadwayStorm]

Why do people want to trade Kreider? I would just pay him. He is a proven playoff performer and should be our captain to be honest. You don't get players of his speed and size and he is homegrown and a link between the past and future and still young.

 

[Tawnos]

Eriksson has played 65/50/81 games.
Okposo has played 65/76/78 games.
Gaborik and Horton both had long injury histories so I would not just write them off for getting hurt. That is something that should have been expected (though not as severe of course).
Bolland also had an extensive injury history having not played much in 12/13 or 13/14 and also was a horrible deal from the get-go given that he was like a mid 30 point player getting 5.5M.
I'll give you Ladd.

Oshie/Steen/Stastny deals I would consider fine.
Marchand/Atkinson/Radulov deals are great.
Foligno is living up to his deal? For 5.5M/year I think you want more than 37/51/33/33 points even if he provides other things.

I would say you have 3 great deals. 3 fine deals. And 12 bad/horrible deals.

How many games a player has played isn’t a good indication of how injuries have diminished the player, particularly when those injuries are concussions. Eriksson and Okposo have both had concussion problems. Yeah, they’re playing a decent number of games, but they’re clearly no longer the players they were. I don’t disagree that the Bolland contract was bad to start, but again... not the evaluation I was looking at. Same goes for Gaborik and Horton. And Eriksson really falls in that same category. I always separate whether or not it was a good idea or over/under payment from the actual outcome. I still don’t think these guys should be counted in the bad category.

I’ll grant you Foligno, although I also realized that Ladd probably belongs with them too. It’s not entirely clear to me if his back injury affected his play as much as I originally assumed. So 4/18.

Marleau is the only one you didn’t mention by name in there. He produced well in year one, then at 3rd line level in year two. I do give that one slightly special status, though, because production isn’t the core reason they signed him. He’s living up to his deal because he gives a young team a wealth of experience and stability, even if he’s producing somewhat below where you would expect a player with his salary. Slightly.

 

[Fugazy]

Why do people want to trade Kreider? I would just pay him. He is a proven playoff performer and should be our captain to be honest. You don't get players of his speed and size and he is homegrown and a link between the past and future and still young.

If it helps this team get a top 10 pick and a talented center going forward, might be something to consider.

 

[Matt4776]

STEVEN STAMKOS #91

SIGNING TEAM: Tampa Bay Lightning


SIGNING DATE: June 29, 2016

July 1 - NHL Free Agency

The legal tampering period was open.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Why do people want to trade Kreider? I would just pay him. He is a proven playoff performer and should be our captain to be honest. You don't get players of his speed and size and he is homegrown and a link between the past and future and still young.

Because players who play like him generally don’t age well, and he’s already had injury issues the past two seasons, and that raises the probability that the contract he get will be a bad one sooner than later

Edit: also Kreider’s PPG in the playoffs is lower than his PPG in the regular season

 

[SA16]

The legal tampering period was open.

So you're saying free agency was not open yet then.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Why do people want to trade Kreider? I would just pay him. He is a proven playoff performer and should be our captain to be honest. You don't get players of his speed and size and he is homegrown and a link between the past and future and still young.

He had 4 goals in the new year. He’s streaky and will want way too much money to justify his streakiness. We don’t need any links to the past.

 

[DutchShamrock]

The legal tampering period was open.

Toronto scared the crap out of him with their insane, stalker presentation. He went running back to Tampa. If the right team made the right pitch, he may have walked. Getting a conversation is the important step.

The Stamkos thing is almost irrelevant, however, because Tavares created a new era. More and more players are going to go UFA. JT last year, Panarin, Duchene, Bob, Karlsson this year.

Finally, building a foundation through free agency doesn't work. We shouldn't care about the next Panarin. We should care about the next two drafts, letting the core meld, then smart trades from our glut, and then add a modest free agent to supplement the team.

 

[Matt4776]

So you're saying free agency was not open yet then.

I don't know why you're being purposefully dense.

You get to talk to all teams before July 1st. You get ideas of their offers. You get presentations. He sat through his presentations. Decided Tampa was bet. Signed with Tampa.

You're playing a semantics card because it's all you have. Done arguing this ridiculous point with you. Believe what you want to believe. But it is an absolutely absurd premise to say that a guy like Panarin never becomes available and never will again despite history telling us blatantly otherwise.

 

[SA16]

I don't know why you're being purposefully dense.Reply

You get to talk to all teams before July 1st. You get ideas of their offers. You get presentations. He sat through his presentations. Decided Tampa was bet. Signed with Tampa.

You're playing a semantics card because it's all you have. Done arguing this ridiculous point with you. Believe what you want to believe. But it is an absolutely absurd premise to say that a guy like Panarin never becomes available and never will again despite history telling us blatantly otherwise.

I have never said someone like Panarin "never will again" come available. I have said in the past that Hall is potentially available next year although I would be a bit more wary on him because of his injury history. Outside of Hall the FA class the next 3 or so years are going to be really bad. Tavares is the only top level player to reach free agency under the current CBA. That is a fact. It will change this year with Panarin and Karlsson. Karlsson comes with extenuating circumstances given he was traded from a rebuilding team to a team that is going for it that already has a bunch of expensive long term deals and has two of its own players to re-sign in Pavelski and Meier. A large reason for that is because this CBA allows the current team to offer an extra year so even for a player like Stamkos who listened to other teams no outside team can offer him more money (barring some wildly different AAV). In order for a top level player to leave his current team now he pretty much has to either really not want to play there or have a large interest to play for another specific team because nobody can really compete on the total money.

 

[Rempe73]

We know what the approximate price will be. Yea, if he hypothetically took 4 million a year I'd take him but he's looking at 10ish and possibly more.

I didn't want Tavares, but yea, if he hypothetically signed a 5 year deal at 4 million per year I'd be happy.

I think we are looking at this as do you want Panarin in a realistic scenario.

Yea that’s fair and I admit that I went too in depth explaining it, but I just wanted to make a quick distinction.

 

[pld459666]

Forwards next year

Mika, Kakko, Panarin, Kreider, Buchnevich, Kravtsov, Chytil, Lemieux, Howden, Lias, Namestnikov, Fast, Strome, Vesey

That's a decent group, especially if we get continued progress from Chytil, Howden and Lias and if Kravtsov can provide 15/15