Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXVII

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Trading Kreider plus small add for 7th-9th overall


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It’s not really semantics. If he officially became a UFA he would not have been able to get 8 years from his original team like he did.

It's not semantics for how long he got to sign for.

It's semantics in terms of a player being available. He made his choice. When the Rangers want a player, he doesn't often go elsewhere.
 
In what world does Kreider have a better chance at still being good when the Rangers are ready to compete then Panarin?

If anyone thinks hes getting less then 7 years and less then $7MM per you are out to lunch. It's his last chance at a big deal. Hes not signing a 5 year deal that makes him 35 and now a 35+ contract.

I can see the arguing not wanting Panarin. You should not want Kreider for those reasons and more.
 
The Blue Line is already being fixed the ETA is just 1-2 seasons. They have 7 DMen prospects between Miller/Hajek/Lindgren/Reunnenan/Keane/Rykov/Lundkvist and that's not even including Gross or Sjallin. Plus they definitely do have a shot at Fox after next summer.

That's not even counting what they do at this draft with the WPG first, and the TBL/DAL picks wherever they end up. They can't magically make Shattenkirk/Staal/Smith disappear this summer unless they "bribe" a team with a pick which makes zero sense. Smith can be a 13th forward or 7th DMen, the other two will play. Summer 2020 they can get creative or even buyout 1 in a worst case scenario.

My point on the bottom 6 is that it is something that could and should be fixed this summer with the money available. Fixing the PK and actually holdings leads could very well be the difference between a bottom 10 finish and a wild card spot.

Yep lots of pieces are in place to rebuild the defense but it’s likely 2 years away so we need patience. So I see no need to rush to finish the bottom 6 this summer when we won’t be good anyway

The last thing I’m worried about is this teams ability to draft bottom 6 guys
 
No, 'we're' not all on the sign Panarin train. There a quite a few of us who want no part of a high-priced long-term expenditure on a team that has a long way to go before it's near a completed project.
Are you kidding me? That was the whole f***ing point of my post. I think we all want Panarin, but it DEPENDS on the price. Would you not take Panarin for 5 years at 6-7 mil AAV if you could? That’s my point. But if he costs 10 mil+, I don’t want that. I know you highlighted the first sentence, but it seems like you stopped reading after that.
 
Lol, 'we're all on the sign Panarin train.' No, we're not. Signing Panarin would be a huge mistake and would quite possibly hold this team back from getting the final piece they need when they are ready to compete in 3-5 years.

I have to say, it's absolutely shocking to me that no one has learned anything from:

Holik
Fleury
Lindros
Gomez
Drury
Redden
Richards
Shattenkirk

and to a lesser extent:

Brassard
Gaborik
Staal
Girardi
Again, why is reading comprehension a problem? If you could sign Panarin at 6-7 mil AAV for 5 years, would you not do it? We all want Panarin, but some of us do not want him at the price he will probably ask for. That’s my point.
 
Are you kidding me? That was the whole ****ing point of my post. I think we all want Panarin, but it DEPENDS on the price. Would you not take Panarin for 5 years at 6-7 mil AAV if you could? That’s my point. But if he costs 10 mil+, I don’t want that. I know you highlighted the first sentence, but it seems like you stopped reading after that.

No, I don't care if that's the price. I'm not interested at all in Panarin coming here.
 
No, I don't care if that's the price. I'm not interested at all in Panarin coming here.
That’s crazy to me. Would you not be interested in McDavid or MacKinnon coming over here, either? What about Dahlin or Kakko? Should we trade Kreider and Zibanejad as well? Panarin is elite, still young, in his prime, and most likely a free agent. That situation does not happen very often. If you can get him for a really good price, how do you not do that? You get superstar talent whenever you can (as long as it’s not too expensive). For the sake of argument (even though I know it’s not possible), if you could sign him for 5 years at 5 mil AAV, you don’t do it? We can’t have a team that is full of only young players. Winning teams have a mix of rookies and veterans.

What if signing Panarin allows us to trade Kreider? It would be a free asset that allows us to trade another asset for more young assets. But I’m getting off topic here.

I’m probably against signing Panarin myself. If he costs us anything more than 8.5 mil AAV, I’m not doing it. But all I’m saying is that in theory, we would all like Panarin, would we not? My whole point is the price tag. Just take the price out of the equation.
 
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That’s crazy to me. So should we trade Kreider and Zibanejad as well? Panarin is elite, still young, in his prime, and most likely a free agent. That situation does not happen very often. If you can get him for a really good price, how do you not do that? You get superstar talent whenever you can (as long as it’s not too expensive). For the sake of argument (even though I know it’s not possible), if you could sign him for 5 years at 5 mil AAV, you don’t do it? We can’t have a team that is full of only young players. Winning teams have a mix of rookies and veterans.

What if signing Panarin allows us to trade Kreider? It would be a free asset that allows us to trade another asset for more young assets. But I’m getting off topic here.

I’m probably against signing Panarin myself. If he costs us anything more than 8.5 mil AAV, I’m not doing it. But all I’m saying is that in theory, we would all like Panarin, would we not? My whole point is the price tag.

Yes to Kreider. No to Zibby.
 
Yes to Kreider. No to Zibby.
Yea I get that, but my point is that if we could sign Panarin for Zibanejad money (I know we never will, but let’s say in theory), it would allow us to trade Kreider. You would essentially swap Panarin for Kreider, and gain some young assets (that we would get for trading Kreider). Again, if the price is that low to sign Panarin, who wouldn’t do that?
 
That’s crazy to me. So should we trade Kreider and Zibanejad as well? Panarin is elite, still young, in his prime, and most likely a free agent. That situation does not happen very often. If you can get him for a really good price, how do you not do that? You get superstar talent whenever you can (as long as it’s not too expensive). For the sake of argument (even though I know it’s not possible), if you could sign him for 5 years at 5 mil AAV, you don’t do it? We can’t have a team that is full of only young players. Winning teams have a mix of rookies and veterans.

What if signing Panarin allows us to trade Kreider? It would be a free asset that allows us to trade another asset for more young assets. But I’m getting off topic here.

I’m probably against signing Panarin myself. If he costs us anything more than 8.5 mil AAV, I’m not doing it. But all I’m saying is that in theory, we would all like Panarin, would we not? My whole point is the price tag.

No, I'd rather commit long-term to a top pairing Dman WHEN this team is ready to compete. You've got Kakko, Kravtso, Chytil and Buchnevich...they are all going to cost money down the line. This team is still relatively early in the process. Even if things go right and they're ready to to compete legitimately in two years, you've wasted two years on a contract. This isn't adding Nash or St' Louis to a team ready to take the next step. Kreider is almost certainly going to be moved. Zibanejad will be in his prime when this team is ready to go. So, again no, I have no interest in bringing in Panarin.
 
No, I'd rather commit long-term to a top pairing Dman WHEN this team is ready to compete. You've got Kakko, Kravtso, Chytil and Buchnevich...they are all going to cost money down the line. This team is still relatively early in the process. Even if things go right and they're ready to to compete legitimately in two years, you've wasted two years on a contract. This isn't adding Nash or St' Louis to a team ready to take the next step. Kreider is almost certainly going to be moved. Zibanejad will be in his prime when this team is ready to go. So, again no, I have no interest in bringing in Panarin.
Again, take price out of the equation. I know it seems stupid, but that was what I was referring to in my original post.
 
You only lose 1 player. The teams that gave up multiple assets to keep certain guys... they all regret it. Those were the teams that gave Vegas what they needed to contend on a platter.

So for the Seattle draft, I expect teams to avoid a lot of those deals. Just lose the 1.

Minn: Tuch & Haula
Fla: JAM & Smith
Clb: 1st & Karlsson
Ana: Theodore
NYI: 1st

Those 1st round picks were turned into MaxPac and Stone.

It's better to lose just the 1. Swallow one bitter pill instead of several.

Say your team has filled the protection slots, and you have one player left over you know Seattle is going to take, are you going to just let them take him, are you going to try to pay them off to take someone else, or are you going to trade him to some other team and let Seattle take who you are not really worried about losing?

Say you try to trade him as you can get a better return there than by paying Seattle not to take him, and most of the trading teams are in a similar situation where if they do take that player they are going to have to expose someone else they do not want to.

Wouldn't it be nice if say the Rangers could return a decent asset which does not need to be protected for said player, even if they are underpaying a little compared to the overpay you'd have to give Seattle not to take said player or to take someone else?

Even beyond that say it's a player with a NMC who you have to protect, yet do not want to, say he would waive to go to the Rangers, how much is it worth in adds or how much discount do you give to make such a trade to protect something else?

Mostly the expansion draft makes for some interesting scenarios, especially if the Rangers have a spot or even two left on their protection list where they really do not need to use it on anything they do not mind losing. As is they have like what, 7-9 or so players who they'd protect, who would need protection?
 
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I think it's laughable a lot of people are ready to run Chris Kreider out of town. If you keep turning the roster over during the rebuild because you want shiny new draft picks, you eventually become the Hurricanes, Oilers, Panthers and Sabres, and all three organizations were a barren wasteland for 10 years save for 2/3 occasions (Edmonton and Florida in 2016, and Carolina this season). This (HF in general) forum loves, loves, loves the concept of the "next thing."

While I agree Chris Kreider shouldn't get seven years and $7+ million because I think that would be utterly ridiculous, I'm not sure he will even cost that. He is turning 28, his career-high is 53 points -- two years ago. Kreider is an important part of this organization in other ways, and if you jettison him, there is no current player on the roster who has any experience in regard to being a part of and leading a locker room besides Hank, and his career is starting to wind down. Kreider is exactly the type of player who could get the "C" in the meantime as we see how draft selections from 2017-19 pan out in the long run. Put me in the camp that would much rather re-sign Kreider at market value and pursue other options to fix the blueline, rather than splurge on Artemi Panarin. That, and Kreider's overall skill set is very hard to replace; it takes organizations sometimes a few seasons to develop a similar player.
 
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Wisconsin is supposed to be really good next year. But I think both Barron and Miller turn pro as soon as their seasons are up.

I wouldn't be surprised if that meant burning a year off of the ELC as a part of the signing.

Inside source told me that Barron will turn pro next year
 
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No, I'd rather commit long-term to a top pairing Dman WHEN this team is ready to compete. You've got Kakko, Kravtso, Chytil and Buchnevich...they are all going to cost money down the line. This team is still relatively early in the process. Even if things go right and they're ready to to compete legitimately in two years, you've wasted two years on a contract. This isn't adding Nash or St' Louis to a team ready to take the next step. Kreider is almost certainly going to be moved. Zibanejad will be in his prime when this team is ready to go. So, again no, I have no interest in bringing in Panarin.

Great stuff, I agree all the way.

Gorts got many assets on the way in. Now keep making moves that are value positive for the organization. Outbidding everyone on the UFA market is per definition not value positive. And I don’t buy that Panarin will take a discount here, where is the talk about him wanting to go to NY coming from? Russian press, his agent. Those discounts seldom had a big impact.

And it’s the same with like Duchene. How easy isn’t if o think, why not trade Kreider and sign Duchene. A 1-2 punch of Mika and Duchene and the kids around them?

The thing is, if we sign a Panarin or Duchene, we lose a lot of flexibility. We need more assets to come in, a lot more. Gorton should aim to find a spot where we can keep adding value to the organization for 5-10 years, not just up until the draft.

Kids shouldn’t be rushed due to lack of alternatives. They should get sufficient support on the ice and not be put in a position they only can fail in. But getting a vet or two, maybe hanging on to someone like Names and Vesey, that isn’t value negatively necessarily. We shouldn’t tank and suck for 5-10 years more.

But everything is about the Cap. Teams are constantly looking to get flexibility and there is no market. Gorton knows that better than anyone else. Trade everyone? It’s not that easy. He has been forced to work really really hard to make the moves he have.

If we keep making sound smart moves, no big splashes, we will have so much ammo in trade talks. We will have so much flexibility via-a-vis the cap. Ottawa was forced to give Karlsson away. There were legit talks about Colorado shopping Mackinnon like three years ago, nobody stepped up to the plate and offered what would have been necessary. The Skinner trade sticks out. The Montour trade. We have the expansion draft coming up.

My point is just, if Gorton plays his cards right he will be a golden spot to make value positive moves for many years. That goal cannot be to just rush along and try to get into the POs we should aim to become as good as Tampa has been in the regular season. And for sure, not stinking for too long I’d a — major — part of that. But being the buyer in a trade where a desperate GM wants to move a player due to the cap to get some flexibility can be for sure. Picking up UDFAs. Signing the kids we have to good contracts is essential, to have the flexibility to pay more short term to not get into that UFA scare like when they are z4-25 y/o. You can’t have a good kid at like 24-25 be in a position where he will be a UFA a year or two down the road, sign them up until their late 30s. Getting Panarin puts us right up against the cap for the coming two years.
 
The market dictates what players are worth, so if 2nd liners are getting $7m as UFAs, that's what they're worth as UFAs. This isn't sudden. $7m is going to be about 8% of the cap. That's what UFA 2nd liners have been getting for 15 years. That the dollar amount strikes your ears as a lot is more a perception problem on your end than a problem in reality.

You want a current list of 7.5-8.5% players who signed as UFAs?

Andrew Ladd
Marian Gaborik
TJ Oshie
Cam Atkinson
Iyla Kovalchuk
Alexander Steen
Nick Foligno
Dave Bolland
Kyle Turris
Paul Stastny
Loui Eriksson
David Backes
Milan Lucic
Kyle Okposo
Nathan Horton
Alex Radulov
Patrick Marleau
Brad Marchand

Aside from a couple of outliers who improved since they signed their deal (Brad Marchand, for example), this is the exact group of players Kreider belongs in.

You realize that over half of those contracts are awful right?
 
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You realize that over half of those contracts are awful right?

Yea these are the exact players you should not be paying mostly.

Gaborik/Kovalchuk deserved it and I'm surprised they even fit in there. Would have thought they were paid more. Marchand deserved it too (he has always had elite 5v5 production...his whole point total explosion is just that they started playing him on the PP. It's actually pretty elite "planning" by Boston to keep his contract low by not playing him on PP1 until after he signed it.). And other that it's a bunch of meh...Turris is fine, Stastny fine, Oshie fine but these aren't the guys that really put you over the top. Radulov is a tough case because of his back and forth to Russia.
 
This team needs a legitimate top 4 defensive defenseman not Panarin. Especially at what Panarin is going to cost
 
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Yea these are the exact players you should not be paying mostly.

Gaborik/Kovalchuk deserved it and I'm surprised they even fit in there. Would have thought they were paid more. Marchand deserved it too (he has always had elite 5v5 production...his whole point total explosion is just that they started playing him on the PP. It's actually pretty elite "planning" by Boston to keep his contract low by not playing him on PP1 until after he signed it.). And other that it's a bunch of meh...Turris is fine, Stastny fine, Oshie fine but these aren't the guys that really put you over the top. Radulov is a tough case because of his back and forth to Russia.
I think that might’ve been Gaborik’s contract from LA, I think the 5 year one he got from the Rangers was around or over 10%, and I think Kovalchuk’s cap hit on the long term deal was like 6 something, and it’s 6.5 on his current one,
 
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