Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXV

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm hard pressed to see how next years team will be worse than this years team. Who are you going to sell off? Kreider I get but at a minimum you should expect Kravtsov to take his place. What else are you going to strip down. You think trading Shattenkirk (good luck with that) or Vesey or buying out Smith is going to make this team worse? Young players, which constitute the majority of the team, are going to get better. If you want to see the Rangers lose every night, go root for the Islanders.

This roster - Kreider = worse than this years team.

You can't ignore that Hayes and Zuccarello were here for 2/3rds of the year.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I'm hard pressed to see how next years team will be worse than this years team. Who are you going to sell off? Kreider I get but at a minimum you should expect Kravtsov to take his place. What else are you going to strip down. You think trading Shattenkirk (good luck with that) or Vesey or buying out Smith is going to make this team worse? Young players, which constitute the majority of the team, are going to get better. If you want to see the Rangers lose every night, go root for the Islanders.

I’d be shocked if Kravtsov comes in next year and replaces Kreider’s production

 

[The Crypto Guy]

3-8 this year are basically a toss up in terms of who goes where, not similar to 2017 at all

So we will draft 9th is what you are saying

 

[duhmetreE]

I’d be shocked if Kravtsov comes in next year and replaces Kreider’s production

I'm expecting, somewhere around 40-ish pts from Kravtsov.. ( 35-45 range )

From what I've seen he's far better than Chytil.. In a completely different category

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm expecting, somewhere around 40-ish pts from Kravtsov.. ( 35-45 range )
From what I've seen he's far better than Chytil.. In a completely different category

Ok...

Lets say for a second you're right, and he puts up around 40 pts.

Thats still a drop off from Kreider production wise, not to mention all the other things he does that impacts the flow of the play when he is out there.

This roster-Kreider+Kravstov still = Worse than this year.

 

[duhmetreE]

Think this timetable is a year or two off.
Even with Panarin and reasonable imporovements of this years rookies the end result wont be pretty.

The year after that, the albatrosses on the D is gone. Lundqvist is gone. Miller and Nils should be playing their first pro year. We might have 2 young golies in Georgiev and Shestyorkin.
Chytil, Howden, Lemieux and Lias in their 3. pro season. The team should be better by then, but the product will most likely vary from game to game with a so young core. Might make the playoffs.

Then the fun begin. The core should be between 19-26 years old. With a couple of older guys in Skjei and Zinbadejad (and possible Kreider/Panarin).
If the scouting departmen have done its job we will have exess young cost controlled NHL talent. Those can be used to trade from a position of strenght to a position of weakness, or bundle a couple of them of to get a better talent.
Think Nash to NYR, Seguin to DAL, Gaborik to CBJ, both Carter trades, M. Richards to LAK, B. Richards to DAL, Kessel to PIT. There will always be some very good players that are not to old, but in the end do not fit a teams
timeline.

Maybe I have too much trust in Gorton.. I think he will acquire the needed pieces to fit my 'estimated timeline'

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I'm expecting, somewhere around 40-ish pts from Kravtsov.. ( 35-45 range )

From what I've seen he's far better than Chytil.. In a completely different category

If he even plays in the NHL all year. Everyone thought Lias was gonna jump right in too.

 

[duhmetreE]

Ok...

Lets say for a second you're right, and he puts up around 40 pts.

Thats still a drop off from Kreider production wise, not to mention all the other things he does that impacts the flow of the play when he is out there.

This roster-Kreider+Kravstov still = Worse than this year.

Maybe I spoke out of context.

Don't think Kravtsov will replace Krieider next year. I think he's here long term

 

[duhmetreE]

If he even plays in the NHL all year. Everyone thought Lias was gonna jump right in too.

Kravtsov is in a different realm compared to Lias and Chytil

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Kravtsov is in a different realm compared to Lias and Chytil

And Kravtsov still won't just stroll into the NHL and put up 50 points as some expect him to

 

[duhmetreE]

And Kravtsov still won't just stroll into the NHL and put up 50 points as some expect him to

I'm not expecting him to but I wont be surprised if he does.

His game should translate well... Aho and Petterson type vibes

He wont stroll in... he'll dangle through

 

[Beacon]

Panarin will likely be playing at the level he is at now for the next 4 to 5 years (30 goals / ppg player)

The only way we are contending in 4 years is if literally all our top prospects reach their ceiling, none get badly injured and all of them reach their ceiling by the time they are 21/22 years old. The odds of that happening are not even 5%.

The reasonable scenario is that Chytil/Kravtsov go the way of Buchnevich/Duclair; ADA similar in value (but not style) to Skjei; 2, maybe 3 of the D we got last year (K'Andre, Lundkvist, Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren) become regular, but not star defensemen; one more prospect like Barron, Vinni or Gettinger cracks it, but is unspectacular; one 2019 draftee is above average, but not great (similar to Buchnevich, maybe Hayes) and another is a role player like Fast. Believe it or not, statistically it is an optimistic projection, possibly it will be worse. Do we contend with that roster plus Panarin in 4 year? Not even close.

What if someone is injured? More busts that I projected? Panarin is so premature, Gorts will be prescribed PE medication if he signs him.

 

[Lundy HOF]

And Kravtsov still won't just stroll into the NHL and put up 50 points as some expect him to

I agree, it’s an unreasonable expectation to have but would you be completely floored if he was a 50-60 point player his first year (assuming he plays with Mika for most of the year)?

Maybe you and some awesome highlights of brainwashed me haha but he is just so smooth. Just feels like the real deal.

 

[Trxjw]

This team needs an entire top pairing, at least 3 more top-six forwards, a consistent 4th line, and some steady goaltending before they're remotely considered a playoff team, let alone a cup contender. Listen to what Gorton keeps saying in interviews; They want to be a contending team for a long time. They're not going to build that in 18 months.

Patience is needed. This time last year all of the talk was about how Chytil and Andersson were clearly NHL ready and would be fighting for top-9 center spots in the fall. Look at how that worked out. Prospects take time, and even if the Rangers land Hughes or Kakko in the draft, there's no guarantee that they're going to step into the NHL in a meaningful role next fall, let alone be impact talents out of the gate.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

And Kravtsov still won't just stroll into the NHL and put up 50 points as some expect him to

I agree that it’s unlikely, and personally I expect him to produce similarily to Howden this season, but I feel like Kravstov could be a guy whose game translates to the NHL more than the KHL, at least production wise. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being a better scorer in the NHL, even early in his career.

Not to mention the utter sadness of Traktor’s offense. When your team’s offense makes the Rangers look desirable...that’s bad.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I agree that it’s unlikely, and personally I expect him to produce similarily to Howden this season, but I feel like Kravstov could be a guy whose game translates to the NHL more than the KHL, at least production wise. Wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being a better scorer in the NHL, even early in his career.

Not to mention the utter sadness of Traktor’s offense. When your team’s offense makes the Rangers look desirable...that’s bad.

1.62 goals per game...

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

1.62 goals per game...

Yeah that is...appalling, really. It’s like what an AHL team would average in the NHL.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Look around at other struggling teams and inconsistent goaltending is the norm. A year older Lundqvist won't mask this defense like he has his whole career. Georgiev has been showing that ability. But I'm not ready to ink in his results next year. He could crap the bed, get figured out, or become mental with New York City thinking of him as the next Richter/Lundqvist Ranger goalie.

Put a Darling or Elliot or Florida goaltending and this team is battling Ottawa.

And here's the other grim reality. We could finish 5 or 6 and drop to this dreaded 8th spot with some typical ranger luck. They could have done everything to tank and still have gotten a terrible draft spot. Conversely, that 7th slot may win the lottery. It's a lot of hot air to complain about their seed until the lottery balls drop.

 

[Dijock94]

The only way we are contending in 4 years is if literally all our top prospects reach their ceiling, none get badly injured and all of them reach their ceiling by the time they are 21/22 years old. The odds of that happening are not even 5%.

The reasonable scenario is that Chytil/Kravtsov go the way of Buchnevich/Duclair; ADA similar in value (but not style) to Skjei; 2, maybe 3 of the D we got last year (K'Andre, Lundkvist, Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren) become regular, but not star defensemen; one more prospect like Barron, Vinni or Gettinger cracks it, but is unspectacular; one 2019 draftee is above average, but not great (similar to Buchnevich, maybe Hayes) and another is a role player like Fast. Believe it or not, statistically it is an optimistic projection, possibly it will be worse. Do we contend with that roster plus Panarin in 4 year? Not even close.

What if someone is injured? More busts that I projected? Panarin is so premature, Gorts will be prescribed PE medication if he signs him.

Has to be some hope of a long shot star player. There is potential in Chytil Kravstov and Miller already of a long shot star player. Maybe even our first this year may have a chance.

 

[kovazub94]

The only way we are contending in 4 years is if literally all our top prospects reach their ceiling, none get badly injured and all of them reach their ceiling by the time they are 21/22 years old. The odds of that happening are not even 5%.

The reasonable scenario is that Chytil/Kravtsov go the way of Buchnevich/Duclair; ADA similar in value (but not style) to Skjei; 2, maybe 3 of the D we got last year (K'Andre, Lundkvist, Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren) become regular, but not star defensemen; one more prospect like Barron, Vinni or Gettinger cracks it, but is unspectacular; one 2019 draftee is above average, but not great (similar to Buchnevich, maybe Hayes) and another is a role player like Fast. Believe it or not, statistically it is an optimistic projection, possibly it will be worse. Do we contend with that roster plus Panarin in 4 year? Not even close.

What if someone is injured? More busts that I projected? Panarin is so premature, Gorts will be prescribed PE medication if he signs him.

Completely agree but with the sheer number of prospects it’s possible that one of them significantly exceeds projections to become what we all are hoping for (Sheifele, Kucherov, Bergeron, Pasternak). Just one-two prospects is all it takes.

 

[haohmaru]

So then why do you state it's so easy to respond to my original post and 'done and done' when it's not so definitive?

That was @Riche16, not me.

 

[haohmaru]

Patience is needed. This time last year all of the talk was about how Chytil and Andersson were clearly NHL ready and would be fighting for top-9 center spots in the fall. Look at how that worked out. Prospects take time, and even if the Rangers land Hughes or Kakko in the draft, there's no guarantee that they're going to step into the NHL in a meaningful role next fall, let alone be impact talents out of the gate.

Not to mention that Hughes and Kakko aren't exactly Connor McDavid, either.

 

[Machinehead]

Yeah that is...appalling, really. It’s like what an AHL team would average in the NHL.

The Sabres are averaging 2.65 goals, so even worse.

 

[Beacon]

Completely agree but with the sheer number of prospects it’s possible that one of them significantly exceeds projections to become what we all are hoping for (Sheifele, Kucherov, Bergeron, Pasternak). Just one-two prospects is all it takes.

That's true, but the odds of a couple random prospects turning into Mcdonagh and Lundqvist are not better than the odds of a pair of star prospects turning into Brendl and Lundmark, Dube and Cherneski, Ferraro twins. We need to see what we already have before we start giving away $60 million contracts.

 

[Barnaby]

All speculation is not created equal.

It’s speculative to speculate that it is, unless you’re speculating that speculators are all speculating based on sound data.

But I think you’re speculating that speculators are speculating, which makes me wonder what kind of speculation you consider in your speculation.

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