Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXV

[Edge]

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Pure speculation!

 

[Beacon]

I think there are other extenuating circumstances in whether they should sign Panarin. Here’s a hypothetical:

The Rangers trade Kreider to Toronto for the Toronto 1st ‘20 + Andreas Jonsson

The Stars re-sign Zuccarello, therefore the Rangers knownthey are receiving the Stars 1st.

The Rangers trade Jimmy Vesey to Colorado for the Avs 2nd ‘20 prior to the season.

Kevin Shattenkirk is traded to Buffalo for the BUF 2nd ‘20 + BUF 3rd ‘20 + Zack Bogosian

So going into 2020, Gorton knows he has his own 1st, DAL 1st, TO 1st, NYR 2nd, COL 2nd, BUF 2nd. They have tons of cap room and that would give them another year of 3 1st’s next year.

Would Gorton take the stab at a younger UFA knowing he would be one of the guys he can build around moving forward?

No. If Gorts makes those moves, the Rangers are the worst team in the league, at least on paper. Panarin makes them 4th worst. Why is that worth saddling the team with an anchor contract just as the 2017-20 prospects start to approach their prime?

 

[Barnaby]

I think the Panarin stuff is shiny new toy syndrome. I believe rational reasoning shows that it's not the time to spend big. I keep hearing that high level guys like him are rarely available, but Tavares signed last year. Duchene is a free agent. Stone could've been had at the deadline.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think the Panarin stuff is shiny new toy syndrome. I believe rational reasoning shows that it's not the time to spend big. I keep hearing that high level guys like him are rarely available, but Tavares signed last year. Duchene is a free agent. Stone could've been had at the deadline.

It's not shiny new toy, its adding an elite winger on a team that hasnt drafted much in that position. You will get 5 elite years from him and maybe more, at that point the cap will have gone up so much he wont have to be elite to command the 9.5 or whatever it is he will sign for, pastranak and Scheifle signed a couple years ago and they are vastly underpaid already because of the rising cap, I dont see him being a problem after the 5th year whether he is still producing at that level or not.

 

[Trxjw]

Not to mention that Hughes and Kakko aren't exactly Connor McDavid, either.

Well few players are, but I think Kakko and Hughes can be franchise talents in the NHL. That being said, even franchise talents can take a little time to be difference makers. That's why I'm leery of the "if we land Hughes, that accelerates the rebuild" mantra that seems to be catching on. We need so much more beyond Hughes that even if he steps in and notches 60 points next year this team is still probably a bottom-10 squad barring major steps forward by at least 3 or 4 other players on the roster. That's only compounded further if they decide to move on from Kreider.

 

[Trxjw]

I think the Panarin stuff is shiny new toy syndrome. I believe rational reasoning shows that it's not the time to spend big. I keep hearing that high level guys like him are rarely available, but Tavares signed last year. Duchene is a free agent. Stone could've been had at the deadline.

I think it's a matter of the way this team has been run for the last 30 years. They've been so active in free agency that a large portion of people think it's a primary mechanism for building teams. The simple fact of the matter is that even if you're getting the best talent to ever hit the free agent market, the odds are that they're heading for the downside of their career. You couple that with the fact that the top guys are always overpaid and it's just simply not a good investment.

Hell, John Tavares is having the best season of his career after signing with Toronto and you still can't say he's worth his contract. He took a discount to sign with the Leafs and he's the highest paid player in the NHL by salary with the 2nd highest cap hit, yet he's outside of the top-15 in scoring despite the numbers he's putting up. You're looking at similar production and compensation for a guy like Panarin, and to me, that's simply not worth the money. Especially at a position like the wing which isn't as impactful as center or D.

 

[SA16]

I think the Panarin stuff is shiny new toy syndrome. I believe rational reasoning shows that it's not the time to spend big. I keep hearing that high level guys like him are rarely available, but Tavares signed last year. Duchene is a free agent. Stone could've been had at the deadline.

Duchene isn't as good and can't defend and Stone could have been had if we traded like a 1st+Chytil to match their package.

No. If Gorts makes those moves, the Rangers are the worst team in the league, at least on paper. Panarin makes them 4th worst. Why is that worth saddling the team with an anchor contract just as the 2017-20 prospects start to approach their prime?

Trading Kreider does not make them the worst team on paper. Losing Vesey is negligible.

I think it's a matter of the way this team has been run for the last 30 years. They've been so active in free agency that a large portion of people think it's a primary mechanism for building teams. The simple fact of the matter is that even if you're getting the best talent to ever hit the free agent market, the odds are that they're heading for the downside of their career. You couple that with the fact that the top guys are always overpaid and it's just simply not a good investment.

Hell, John Tavares is having the best season of his career after signing with Toronto and you still can't say he's worth his contract. He took a discount to sign with the Leafs and he's the highest paid player in the NHL by salary with the 2nd highest cap hit, yet he's outside of the top-15 in scoring despite the numbers he's putting up. You're looking at similar production and compensation for a guy like Panarin, and to me, that's simply not worth the money. Especially at a position like the wing which isn't as impactful as center or D.

45 goals/86 points isn't worth his contract? He's 2nd in the league in 5v5 pts/60. His raw numbers are just a bit lower because the Leafs draw the least PPs in the league and Babcock has him playing the net front role there which is not conducive to putting up a lot of assists. He has 204 PP mins. Kucherov has 295. MacKinnon 320. Ovechkin 350. Kane 290. If he had 90 more PP mins at his scoring rate that would be like another 8 points and he'd have a chance for a 100 point year.

 

[NYRKING30]

New Yorkers and their afflictions for free agency.

 

[Machinehead]

Imagine a world where we still have KZB but it's our second line.

 

[Machinehead]

Oh, and remember I mentioned getting a vet RHD in 2022?

PK Subban will be in the last year of his deal.

I think about these things.

 

[bl02]

New Yorkers and their afflictions for free agency.

we aren't patient enough to wait 3-4 years for our prospects to hit their potential. I mean can you imagine if Lias has another Meh year next year? If Chytil isn't blazing by opponents down the right side driving the net? If Howden doesn't put up 40 plus points?
I realize next year won't be our year so I am ok with making no major splash in free agency.

 

[Avery16]

we aren't patient enough to wait 3-4 years for our prospects to hit their potential. I mean can you imagine if Lias has another Meh year next year? If Chytil isn't blazing by opponents down the right side driving the net? If Howden doesn't put up 40 plus points?
I realize next year won't be our year so I am ok with making no major splash in free agency.

Miller had a very tough time on this board from his rookie season almost up until the point we got not enough for him in a trade

 

[Avery16]

It's not shiny new toy, its adding an elite winger on a team that hasnt drafted much in that position. You will get 5 elite years from him and maybe more, at that point the cap will have gone up so much he wont have to be elite to command the 9.5 or whatever it is he will sign for, pastranak and Scheifle signed a couple years ago and they are vastly underpaid already because of the rising cap, I dont see him being a problem after the 5th year whether he is still producing at that level or not.

Take off the rose colored glasses. No one works as hard after their payday as they do before it. If they do, they're insane.

 

[Ola]

I'm hard pressed to see how next years team will be worse than this years team. Who are you going to sell off? Kreider I get but at a minimum you should expect Kravtsov to take his place. What else are you going to strip down. You think trading Shattenkirk (good luck with that) or Vesey or buying out Smith is going to make this team worse? Young players, which constitute the majority of the team, are going to get better. If you want to see the Rangers lose every night, go root for the Islanders.

Probably. We will still have a lot of raw fundamentals in place next season too. Vets and kids in truly depressed franchises that haven’t been good for decades tend to give up, we aren’t there yet.

But if Gorton continue to sell off and does not trade for vets or sign them as UFAs — vulnerability would be an issue. If Ziba goes down we would certainly not have a lot of fundamentals in place.

 

[bobbop]

You also have to think about the culture. Fans may not see this project as ready to head north but the team certainly will and the coach definitely will. There are 14-15 players here who will be on the team in October and the expectation is that they will improve next year. Whatever young players that make the team will bring additional skill and desire.

I’ve never been first in line to move Kreider but I’ll play the game and see what is available. Who knows, I might like a trade if one happens. I just hope I don’t drive offf the road like when I heard the return for Stepan.

 

[NYRKING30]

we aren't patient enough to wait 3-4 years for our prospects to hit their potential. I mean can you imagine if Lias has another Meh year next year? If Chytil isn't blazing by opponents down the right side driving the net? If Howden doesn't put up 40 plus points?
I realize next year won't be our year so I am ok with making no major splash in free agency.

Someone made a good point the other day about if we had picked Zibby 6th overall in 2011 we would have already given up on him 5 or 6 years ago by now. Its damn true.

 

[egelband]

In simple terms.. as I see it..

Next year - compete - possibly make playoffs?
Two years - compete - make playoffs
Three years - Make playoffs and win a round?
Four Years = Continue to grow - maybe a round or two?
Five Years - Make noise in the playoffs
Six Years - Make noise in the playoffs

I think this is reasonable. I believe Gorton has one more year of tinkering. And then it's full throttle. From now through the next trade deadline he's moving the last of the guys he doesn't want and acquiring some players he's high on. This while young players develop with lower pressure. Then 2020-onward they will be competing. I'm not expecting big results in 2020-2021 (yeesh it feels so weird talking about such a futuristic season) but they won't be worrying about draft position.

 

[egelband]

Someone made a good point the other day about if we had picked Zibby 6th overall in 2011 we would have already given up on him 5 or 6 years ago by now. Its damn true.

Yep. Too true. Very few go off like a firecracker. Usually these guys show glimpse's early and then put it together, so to speak, after a few years. Injuries were (I hope "were") a big issue for Mika. But for others it's opportunity or being in an all-day fitting system. Regardless, I do believe there's a market weakness and a good business to be made in guys like Strome. Big prospects who "busted" but - alas - are still young and talented. Adding these guys when the shine has come off is a good plan and it appears Gorton gets it. I hope.

 

[Ola]

Another lesson that there are no short-cuts in this league. For years "rebuilding" has been described as the easiest thing in the world, an option that you just could opt for. Its been lol, loosing, how can that be hard? If you pushed the button, 1st overall picks would pile up and we would get the top talents.

Now we have traded everyone, twice. Its not even Hank in the net, its Geo. This is one thing that annoys me with this organization, was the risk of not getting a top pick ever considered? You always get the sense that decisions are made based on an assumption that we are entitled to success, a bit naive and childish view of our prospects.

Then many will say, lol, who could EVER have anticipated that we would not get a top 1 pick with the roster we have iced this season??? But that is just not true, the writing has been on the wall forever. I made this post July 2016, arguing that it was risky to start a rebuild when we had so much in place:

I made this post in August 2016:

And this post in August 2018:

Gorton went ahead with the rebuild. It annoys me that nobody asked him how he planned to get top talent/picks starting a rebuild with so much in place. Not one reporter posed that question. Maybe he had a plan, or it was naive. But facts are that we is not getting the top picks. The rebuild started when we traded our 1st line center for a pick and a prospect in June 2017. We are 2 years into it now.

What is the plan now? How should we go forward, that is of course the million dollar question. We have a few options:

1. We stay the course. Maybe trade Kreider, do not go after the top UFAs. Oh, doesn't those words sounds sooo comforting? Lets do it right, for once. Get the top pick next season. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Lets cut the classic naive and childish NYR thinking and look at this option soberly. 31 teams in this league. We have a young and hungry offensive roster.

The raw fundamentals of a top line lead by Zibanejad. Nobody that even remotely can do what he is doing if he goes down, but for as long as he is healthy he is contributing a lot right now.

Will we finish bottom 30-31? 28-29? 26-27? Its of course impossible to know. But there is certainly no guarantee that we finish bottom 30-31. Is it 50/50? And with how this league is right now, all of a sudden we do better than that, possibly even compete for a PO spot. I would hardly bet on it, but this league is close. You can't overlook that fact. All of a sudden Kravtsov comes in and plays great, Chytil/Lias steps up. Young team that thinks they are unbeatable after a lucky start.

The odds of getting a top 3 pick are the following, if we finish:
31st -- 49%
30th -- 39%
29th -- 33%
28th -- 29%
27th -- 26%
26th -- 23%

There is certainly no guarantee that we will get a top pick next season if we stay the course, or the season after that too. Then we are 4-5 years into the rebuild.

2. We take it one step further, deal Kreider and Zibanejad. Ok, now we getting into the territory of more or less being guaranteed a top 4-5 pick. But odds are still greater to get a pick 4 or lower than 3 or higher.

3. We sign a bunch of UFAs. Is what we have, and will get, enough?

Its not easy, there are no easy options. Gorton must do a great job to make a contender of this team, that is a fact. He cannot cheat, cut corners.

 

[BBKers]

You also have to think about the culture. Fans may not see this project as ready to head north but the team certainly will and the coach definitely will. There are 14-15 players here who will be on the team in October and the expectation is that they will improve next year. Whatever young players that make the team will bring additional skill and desire.

I’ve never been first in line to move Kreider but I’ll play the game and see what is available. Who knows, I might like a trade if one happens. I just hope I don’t drive offf the road like when I heard the return for Stepan.

We currently have 17 roster players signed under contract for next season:

FORWARDS (10)
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Vladislav Namestnikov
Ryan Strome
Jesper Fast(h)
Jimmy Vesey
Brett Howden
Filip Chytil
Lias Andersson
Cristoval Nieves

DEFENSE (5)
Kevin Shattenkirk
Marc Staal
Brady Skjei
Brendan Smith
Libor Hajek

GOAL (2)
Henrik Lundqvist
Alexander Georgiev

We also have 5 RFAs on the squad to resign (I would think all of these guys are qualified):

Pavel Buchnevich
Brendan Lemiuex

Anthony DeAngelo
Neil Pionk
Fredrik Claesson

This makes 22 contracts likely in all. Basically a full team - likely fatefully bound for a top pick in a potentially great draft in 2020. Before resigning the RFAs we will have ~$21,536,391 in cap space available if the cap goes to $83,5 M as predicted. I think somewhere close to half of that will be left when all is said and done. A nice asset for us to have - in order to attain even more (player) assets.

I also do believe we will see some movement via trades (for arguments sake - lets say Chris Kreider is dealt, maybe then "replaced" by Anton Burdasov on the roster) and the Trio of NYR Russians (Igor Shestyorkin, Yegor Rykov, Vitali Kravtsov) will be coming over to compete for spots this autumn, but I myself do not see such a huge roster overhaul taking place during this offseason as bobbop (an excellent poster btw) here above insinuates. Hopefully we get lucky for once in the lottery and our 2019 high pick can step right in as well...

In a one or two years, yes, that I could definitely see. Especially when the results of the decisive drafts 2019 and 2020 are completed and all of our big contracts are up (~$13,3 M off the books in 2020/here disregarding Kreider/ and $25,25 M off in 2021). Stay the course and be patient. Other opportunities will definitely also present themselves when we are loaded with ammo (capspace, lack of long term commitments and a likely huge prospect bank). They always do. This will nonetheless be a very interesting time to follow the roster building of the NYR.

 

[GAGLine]

It's not shiny new toy, its adding an elite winger on a team that hasnt drafted much in that position. You will get 5 elite years from him and maybe more, at that point the cap will have gone up so much he wont have to be elite to command the 9.5 or whatever it is he will sign for, pastranak and Scheifle signed a couple years ago and they are vastly underpaid already because of the rising cap, I dont see him being a problem after the 5th year whether he is still producing at that level or not.

And how many of those years will we waste by not being good? Will we try to accelerate the rebuild to take advantage of his elite years? Will we trade away prospects and picks in an effort to win while he is still elite? It's a slippery slope.

Beyond that, the one thing that most people seem to ignore, is why is Panarin signing with a rebuilding team? He's going to get his money wherever he goes. Why wouldn't he sign somewhere that he will also have a good chance to win a cup?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

It's not shiny new toy, its adding an elite winger on a team that hasnt drafted much in that position. You will get 5 elite years from him and maybe more, at that point the cap will have gone up so much he wont have to be elite to command the 9.5 or whatever it is he will sign for, pastranak and Scheifle signed a couple years ago and they are vastly underpaid already because of the rising cap, I dont see him being a problem after the 5th year whether he is still producing at that level or not.

Aside from Gaborik, no Ranger has scored more in the last 10 years than Panarin did in his WORST season (74 pts). Let that sink in. This isn't just another new player. This is a player who would instantly be the best forward on the team, and yes. That includes Zibanejad

 

[GAGLine]

Aside from Gaborik, no Ranger has scored more in the last 10 years than Panarin did in his WORST season (74 pts). Let that sink in. This isn't just another new player. This is a player who would instantly be the best forward on the team, and yes. That includes Zibanejad

I don't think anyone is questioning his ability, just the timing in regards to the rebuild. No matter how good he is, he isn't going to elevate this team into being a contender. There's still so much work to be done before this team is ready to compete.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

You also have to think about the culture. Fans may not see this project as ready to head north but the team certainly will and the coach definitely will. There are 14-15 players here who will be on the team in October and the expectation is that they will improve next year. Whatever young players that make the team will bring additional skill and desire.

I’ve never been first in line to move Kreider but I’ll play the game and see what is available. Who knows, I might like a trade if one happens. I just hope I don’t drive offf the road like when I heard the return for Stepan.

Okay, but those expectations would be out of place and will only lead to disappointment.

Assuming that they don't do anything major/stupid, the expectation shouldn't be that they're ready to trend upwards as a group. You can expect that from certain individuals (If you want to tell me that Buch and DeAngelo both have big seasons, I'll buy that), but to expect them to improve to the point collectively where they're covering for what they've lost (and still haven't replaced) over the last 14 months is unrealistic.

And thats before getting to the guys who will regress, veterans who won't perform as expected, injuries, etc. Its the same shit we heard before the season started about how this year's team was primed to surprise everyone. They've had insane puck luck, a sweetheart of a schedule in terms of rest days and pretty decent fortune in terms of injuries...

Yet they are where they are.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I don't think anyone is questioning his ability, just the timing in regards to the rebuild. No matter how good he is, he isn't going to elevate this team into being a contender. There's still so much work to be done before this team is ready to compete.

And I understand all this, but players like Panarin don't hit free agency. In the last 10 years, only Tavares comes to mind and I wouldn't even count him since he had already made up his mind before hitting UFA status