Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Off Sides]

This is really just not true. Or do you not understand that cap hit % only refers to the percentage of the cap of the first year of the deal?

In 2011-12, Duncan Keith's 9.8% cap hit was 13th in the league among D. In 2018-19, 9.8% is 14th. Not really different.

In 2011-12, his $5.5m cap hit was 14th among D. In 2018-19, it's 27th among D. That's a pretty big change of the course of what, today, would be a max term contract.

That is a 13 year contract.

 

[Off Sides]

I'm actually surprised that after his playoffs there is a huge desire for Trouba.

Even beyond just that series, I've watched a fair amount (like 15 or so) of their games this past season prior to the playoffs as I've been interested in how they built their team.

He's really good in his own end, his positioning, his take away/breakups/blocks/board play.

He can move the puck from his end in transition, yet to me that is where his strengths end, yet much of his production and shot metrics comes from. Passing to three 30 goal scorers and a couple 20 goal scorers who look to shoot a bunch.

On the PP, I think it's more Laine, Scheifele, Conner having the ability to be PP goal scorers with Wheeler being the distributor more so than Trouba making it happen.

Not that I think it's a bad thing being able to get the puck to the right people to lead to the event you desire, yet 25 of his 42 assists were secondary this year and to me that matches what I've seen out of the Jets this past season.

 

[Tawnos]

That is a 13 year contract.

No shit. How does that dispute anything I just said?

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

The issue with Trouba is that what he is going to demand to get paid and that contract will have NTC/NMC. If the Rangers are paying him to be a top pairing, anchor of a defense type of player, is that what they are getting? My gut says not. Couple that with his in ability to stay on the ice and said NTC/NMC and this could become a very bad situation right about the time that this team is truly ready to compete.

I hear that, but:

a) Exactly what contract is he seeking? Is it $7MM x 7 years as Uncle Larry speculates? In a world with a cap > $80MM, I'm more than okay with that for a player of his profile. Hell, I'd go into the $8MM range, especially if we're sending a $5.25MM x 5 (Skjei's future years) back in exchange for him.

b) I see it as a lower risk for a guy who's only just turned 25. I can definitely see him missing a bunch of games, but not declining significantly – certainly not until the last year or so of a 7 year deal, if it does happen at all.

We're talking about a guy who is now firmly established as a 40-50-point-scoring (per 82 GP), defensive stalwart RHD with size and physicality. He is exactly what the team is missing and fits squarely in any window that also includes Zibanejad.

 

[True Blue]

In that respect adding Trouba certainly wouldn't hurt us. He would give us an anchor on the right side and play 25 minutes a game.

Here's where we go awry, IMO. What you are describing has NOT been who Trouba has been. Adding on a few more minutes of ice time, calling him the anchor and then paying him as such can put this team into a bind with the salary cap. He has not been top pairing. He has not been an anchor. And let's not forget that this is only the second time in his career that he played over 70 games. Heck, it's only the second time that he has played over 65 games..

 

[True Blue]

We're talking about a guy who is now firmly established as a 40-50-point-scoring (per 82 GP), defensive stalwart RHD with size and physicality. He is exactly what the team is missing and fits squarely in any window that also includes Zibanejad.

But what he has not been is a top pair, anchor of a defense. And that is where I have an issue of trading assets for him and paying him to be a player that he has not been.

 

[Off Sides]

No ****. How does that dispute anything I just said?

It's an outlier.

 

[ETTER DE]

By the way, the whole point of getting Trouba should be to play him with Skjei, not trade Skjei for him.

Agree with this, but maybe the plan is to upgrade Skjei?

 

[Lion Hound]

Trouba checks so many boxes. My kind of a player from a style perspective. Big physical 2 way RHD defenseman who can chip in, join the rush, play PP, etc. Yet, one thing happens everytime I watch him play. He leaves me wanting more, and i find myself less and less impressed with him. Not a fan of overpaying for him to come to Broadway...At all!

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

But what he has not been is a top pair, anchor of a defense. And that is where I have an issue of trading assets for him and paying him to be a player that he has not been.

But we're not acquiring/paying him to be a 1D. That player would cost more than Skjei+sweeteners (regardless of contract/roster status) and $7MM x 7 years. IMO, we're acquiring him to be a 2D to pair with the young stud LD (hopefully Miller), who becomes our true all-around 1D.

EDIT: as always, it comes down to context for me. If they do pay through the nose to get him, and then give him 2019 1D money (which IMO is about to hit $9.5-10.0MM+), I won't be at all happy.

 

[ETTER DE]

Ristolainen is intriguing. I would be very interested in what Quinn could get out of him. His game seems to fit in with what Gorton and Quinn are looking for.

Have not seen much of him, but read a little bit on the Sabres forum. The impression I get that he is terrible defensively. Another Shattenkirk? (I could be completely wrong .)

 

[eco's bones]

Here's where we go awry, IMO. What you are describing has NOT been who Trouba has been. Adding on a few more minutes of ice time, calling him the anchor and then paying him as such can put this team into a bind with the salary cap. He has not been top pairing. He has not been an anchor. And let's not forget that this is only the second time in his career that he played over 70 games. Heck, it's only the second time that he has played over 65 games..

I think you're overstating salary cap issues. Right now we're around $61 mil and the cap is probably going to be over 80. The most significant RFA to sign is Buchnevich and I can see good reason for giving him a nice contract but not a good reason to break the bank.

As for Trouba himself--he is not a player without warts but he's also not complete trash defensively or someone who is physically overpowered very often so I'm not sure how your (Not been) remark is much of an argument. He has been a physical player since he came into the league and is not an easy guy to play against. He has considerably more edge than any of the D we currently have--including DeAngelo whose physical game is pretty much just about being good at defending himself when gloves are dropped.

 

[Tawnos]

It's an outlier.

Not in this discussion it isn’t.

Alexander Edler got a 6 year, $5m, 7.8% contract in 13-14. At the time it was 25th in cap hit and 28th in cap hit %. Today, it’s 56th in cap hit and 33rd in cap hit %. Lots of change on the cap hit but very little on the cap hit %.

 

[True Blue]

But we're not acquiring/paying him to be a 1D. That player would cost more than Skjei+sweeteners (regardless of contract/roster status) and $7MM x 7 years. IMO, we're acquiring him to be a 2D to pair with the young stud LD (hopefully Miller), who becomes our true all-around 1D.

I get it, but the price to sign (between $7-8m) is not a second pairing guy. That is a top pair anchor.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Maybe, but I think we can all agree that we know what we don’t have, and that’s a top 4 RHD who isn’t 1 foot 2.

In a perfect world, I’d love to nab Rasmus Andersson out of Calgary, but that’s going to be tough.

Andersson can be had. The Rangers would have to give up a decent to good offensive piece to get it done. I'm not sure a year of Kreider gets it done, but that's who I'd offer.

 

[True Blue]

I think you're overstating salary cap issues. Right now we're around $61 mil and the cap is probably going to be over 80. The most significant RFA to sign is Buchnevich and I can see good reason for giving him a nice contract but not a good reason to break the bank.

But that's just it. Locking in $8m, with NTC/NMC for a player that has had trouble staying on the ice, is very risky to me.

As for Trouba himself--he is not a player without warts but he's also not complete trash defensively or someone who is physically overpowered very often so I'm not sure how your (Not been) remark is much of an argument. He has been a physical player since he came into the league and is not an easy guy to play against. He has considerably more edge than any of the D we currently have--including DeAngelo whose physical game is pretty much just about being good at defending himself when gloves are dropped.

Not disputing that at all, eco. Where the issue comes in is that he is going to get paid as a top pairing guy. Which is not what he has been.

 

[Tawnos]

I get it, but the price to sign (between $7-8m) is not a second pairing guy. That is a top pair anchor.

Not really. Your top pair anchor D are going to get over 10% of the cap, which this year is around $8.3m. Trouba will get below that. It’s more like the salary for a good #2 guy. Still better than a 2nd pairing D, but not an anchor.

I get the concerns about injury history and clauses. But I would say those concerns are valid no matter how much he signs for.

 

[True Blue]

Not really. Your top pair anchor D are going to get over 10% of the cap, which this year is around $8.3m. Trouba will get below that. It’s more like the salary for a good #2 guy. Still better than a 2nd pairing D, but not an anchor.

I get the concerns about injury history and clauses. But I would say those concerns are valid no matter how much he signs for.

See and I think that there is a very good chance that he finds a taker for $8. And will ask for such.

 

[Tawnos]

See and I think that there is a very good chance that he finds a taker for $8. And will ask for such.

Which is still not top pairing anchor money.

 

[bobbop]

Trouba has not had a chronic injury (e.g. knee, shoulder) That minimizes my concern.

And he really has been the guy this year for the Jets. Trouba-Morrissey has been their shutdown pair. Byfuglein is a turnstile on defense.

At what cost is the only question in my mind.

 

[Tawnos]

Trouba has not had a chronic injury (e.g. knee, shoulder) That minimizes my concern.

And he really has been the guy this year for the Jets. Trouba-Morrissey has been their shutdown pair. Byfuglein is a turnstile on defense.

At what cost is the only question in my mind.

At what cost to trade for or what cost to sign? Or both?

 

[Lone Ranger]

I'd be much more comfortable paying Trouba $7 million a year then I was paying Staal $5.7 million when the cap was lower.

 

[True Blue]

Which is still not top pairing anchor money.

You said:

Your top pair anchor D are going to get over 10% of the cap, which this year is around $8.3m

I think we are splitting hairs over $8 or $8.3

 

[True Blue]

Trouba has not had a chronic injury (e.g. knee, shoulder) That minimizes my concern.

And he really has been the guy this year for the Jets. Trouba-Morrissey has been their shutdown pair. Byfuglein is a turnstile on defense.

At what cost is the only question in my mind.

4 out of 6 years at 65 games or less only gets me more concerned. That is not something that usually gets straightened out.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Andersson can be had. The Rangers would have to give up a decent to good offensive piece to get it done. I'm not sure a year of Kreider gets it done, but that's who I'd offer.

Can he?

I’d give up Kreider in a millisecond. You may even get me to bend on a higher end player or prospect.