Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXII

[Anthony5967]

I just cannot wrap my head around these people that are using the Grabner trade as a parameter for a Zuccarello deal. Grabner wasn't a consistent 50-60 point winger who could play PP, PK and be relied upon at even strength as much as Zucc is. Grabner was a great Ranger who flourished in AV's system, but I am sure we all had a feeling, once traded, that he would fall back down to Earth. So, am I crazy by thinking that if the NYR retain on Zucc, they will easily get a 1st rounder from someone? The 2nd+B-prospect is ridiculous, especially with the recent surge Zucc is on. This is the player that we have come to expect.

 

[Anthony5967]

PS- Not saying we deserved the return for Nash, but he returned a 1+Lindgren+top9 in Spooner. Nash wasn't anything more than a defensive two-way forward. Sure, he could chip in offense but he wasn't anywhere near the same player. Also, I realize the market wasn't strong.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Seriously, you should be happy that he decided to show up despite playing his last games here. Should generate a much better return for the Rangers. The management did a good job to get him going again.

That's not how it works. Trade value doesn't magically change in the final few months.

 

[pld459666]

Vesey scant progress?

4 points off his career high with 30+ games to go and hes a + player this year and while the +/- stat can be misleading, a swing from -18 last year to +4 this year is interesting.

Brooks is an idiot

 

[Trxjw]

Man, William Nylander only has 3 points in 18 games this year. He's allegedly been playing a bit better the last couple games but you gotta wonder if he had his heart set on getting out of Toronto after all was said and done. Zucc and Skjei for Nylander and Zaitsev, then flip Zaitsev to a team with a desperate GM and a need for a RHD? Nobody comes to mind there though...

 

[Tawnos]

No.

Nieuwendyk was traded to Dallas because he was a hold-out. Mika is on one of the best contracts in the NHL. This is not equivalent. It only makes sense to move Mika for a top pairing defenseman, if that the is Rangers strategy. Moving him elsewhere does nothing for the team.

Oh thanks. It’s not like I mentioned the hold out or anything.

Look, I’m not advocating trading Zibanejad tomorrow, but like every other player on that team in that age group, it needs to be considered. We mentioned earlier in the thread that what Gorton does today is more about 2021 than right now. Zib will likely still be a good player in 3 years, but in 5? It’s a strong possibility we will be dealing with needing to replace him right at the height of our window.

 

[kinger8998]

Oh thanks. It’s not like I mentioned the hold out or anything.

Look, I’m not advocating trading Zibanejad tomorrow, but like every other player on that team in that age group, it needs to be considered. We mentioned earlier in the thread that what Gorton does today is more about 2021 than right now. Zib will likely still be a good player in 3 years, but in 5? It’s a strong possibility we will be dealing with needing to replace him right at the height of our window.

i get the league is getting younger but in 5 years zibanejad is going to be 30. its a bit ridiculous we think he wont be good anymore.

david krejci is 32 and has 40 points in 48 games, very good production that boston is going to need behind pasta-bergeron-marchand

david perron (although not a C) has 35 points in 45 games as a 30 year old.

sure, guys might not play till 35 anymore, but they can still play at 30-33. we cant trade everyone over 30, we need some experience

 

[Mac n Gs]

Oh thanks. It’s not like I mentioned the hold out or anything.

Look, I’m not advocating trading Zibanejad tomorrow, but like every other player on that team in that age group, it needs to be considered. We mentioned earlier in the thread that what Gorton does today is more about 2021 than right now. Zib will likely still be a good player in 3 years, but in 5? It’s a strong possibility we will be dealing with needing to replace him right at the height of our window.

Your point about 2021 was the exact reason I threw it out there. IMO, it’s a better version of the proposals of Mika to Colorado because that OTT pick is going nowhere. It would be a move that sucks now, but it’ll give us three high-end prospects in Chytil, Kravtsov, and Necas. There’s a ton of size, speed, and skill in that trio.

It also helps us step back for this year and next, and it maybe even opens the door to re-signing Hayes.

 

[kinger8998]

the rangers are heading into a real defining stretch before the deadline:

01-19 vs Bruins - Very likely a loss. Should be a rough game that can showcase McQuaid
01-29 vs Flyers - Anyone's guess really. Could come out flat and lose 5-0, or manage to rn up the score and lose 5-4. I personally predict a loss either way. Another rough game beneficial for the McQuaid return.
01-31 vs Devils - Should be a win, where Zucc can make up some more points where he may not get some in the 2 previous. Loss wouldn't be shocking cause Rangers seem to lay the occasional egg against NJ
02-02 vs Lightning - Do I really have to say much? If Lightning start Domingue, you're saying theres a chance?
02-02 vs Kings - I'm pegging this as a win. Never know against LA though. They're bad enough it should be another points game for Zucc/Hayes (who should be back).
02-06 vs Bruins - See 01-19.
02-09 vs Canes - 50/50 as to what we get. I'm guessing you either get the version of this matchup we saw early season, or the version we saw a couple nights ago. In the name of optimism, I'm calling this a win where we see zucc have yet another multi point game.
02-10 vs Leafs - See 02-02, but replace Domingue with Sparks/Hutch. McQuaid with a good showing could catch Dubas' attention as a target.
02-12 vs Jets - Can't even say we have a chance if they start their backup, because Brossoit has been superior to Hellebuyck. Best hope is Hayes shows up to play with a wicked game and almost steals in with a 3 points effort, cementing to the Jets that he is this years Statsny.
02-15 vs Sabres - Should be able to run up the score a little considering we got to Hutton (finally) last time we played them. Should be mentioned all these games where we have a chance to score 4+ are not only good for trade values, but also good for confidence of guys like Chytil/ADA/Nieves.
02-17 vs Pens - We all pretty much know what this is likely going to be right? Answer: a sh**show.
02-19 vs Canes - Chance we could see a trade be made early (ie: Nash last year) and we might already be in the swing of moving guys out. Loosely predicting a loss, hoping if there's guys still sround to showcase, we can capitalize on Carolina sieves in net.
02-21 vs Wild - Should be another win. Not really sure what to expect. Rosters for both teams could be very different this close to deadline.
02-23 vs Devils - See 01-31.
02-24 vs Capitals - Probably a loss, but as always, a non-zero chance we win since we've seemed to be able to squeak atleast 1 win out against the Capitals every year.

Overall Prediction: 5-8-2
Trade Deadline Predictions
-Zucc has good showing with multipoint games against weaker teams/ while still managing to get a point here and there against better teams. Goes for 1st round pick and a prospect.
- McQuaid is the type of guy contenders want on their 3rd pair for the grind. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Leafs for a mid round pick and prospect/2 picks.
- Hayes gets shipped to Colorado, Winnipeg or Boston. 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, prospect comes back the other way.
- Namestnikov, Claesson also get moved.

With those guys gone, we don't really have much depth. Call up Lias, Gettinger/Meskanen, run with

Kreider-Zibanejad-Fast
Vesey-Chytil-Buchnevich
Andersson-Howden-TDL return
McLeod-Howden-Gettinger/Meskanen
(One of McLeod/Gettinger/Meskanen as depth.)

skjei-pionk
staal-ADA
lindgren-shattenkirk
smith

hank
georgiev

that roster isnt going to win many games post deadline, expect free fall.

 

[kinger8998]

the rangers are heading into a real defining stretch before the deadline:

01-19 vs Bruins - Very likely a loss. Should be a rough game that can showcase McQuaid
01-29 vs Flyers - Anyone's guess really. Could come out flat and lose 5-0, or manage to rn up the score and lose 5-4. I personally predict a loss either way. Another rough game beneficial for the McQuaid return.
01-31 vs Devils - Should be a win, where Zucc can make up some more points where he may not get some in the 2 previous. Loss wouldn't be shocking cause Rangers seem to lay the occasional egg against NJ
02-02 vs Lightning - Do I really have to say much? If Lightning start Domingue, you're saying theres a chance?
02-02 vs Kings - I'm pegging this as a win. Never know against LA though. They're bad enough it should be another points game for Zucc/Hayes (who should be back).
02-06 vs Bruins - See 01-19.
02-09 vs Canes - 50/50 as to what we get. I'm guessing you either get the version of this matchup we saw early season, or the version we saw a couple nights ago. In the name of optimism, I'm calling this a win where we see zucc have yet another multi point game.
02-10 vs Leafs - See 02-02, but replace Domingue with Sparks/Hutch. McQuaid with a good showing could catch Dubas' attention as a target.
02-12 vs Jets - Can't even say we have a chance if they start their backup, because Brossoit has been superior to Hellebuyck. Best hope is Hayes shows up to play with a wicked game and almost steals in with a 3 points effort, cementing to the Jets that he is this years Statsny.
02-15 vs Sabres - Should be able to run up the score a little considering we got to Hutton (finally) last time we played them. Should be mentioned all these games where we have a chance to score 4+ are not only good for trade values, but also good for confidence of guys like Chytil/ADA/Nieves.
02-17 vs Pens - We all pretty much know what this is likely going to be right? Answer: a sh**show.
02-19 vs Canes - Chance we could see a trade be made early (ie: Nash last year) and we might already be in the swing of moving guys out. Loosely predicting a loss, hoping if there's guys still sround to showcase, we can capitalize on Carolina sieves in net.
02-21 vs Wild - Should be another win. Not really sure what to expect. Rosters for both teams could be very different this close to deadline.
02-23 vs Devils - See 01-31.
02-24 vs Capitals - Probably a loss, but as always, a non-zero chance we win since we've seemed to be able to squeak atleast 1 win out against the Capitals every year.

Overall Prediction: 5-8-2
Trade Deadline Predictions
-Zucc has good showing with multipoint games against weaker teams/ while still managing to get a point here and there against better teams. Goes for 1st round pick and a prospect.
- McQuaid is the type of guy contenders want on their 3rd pair for the grind. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Leafs for a mid round pick and prospect/2 picks.
- Hayes gets shipped to Colorado, Winnipeg or Boston. 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, prospect comes back the other way.
- Namestnikov, Claesson also get moved.

With those guys gone, we don't really have much depth. Call up Lias, Gettinger/Meskanen, run with

Kreider-Zibanejad-Fast
Vesey-Chytil-Buchnevich
Andersson-Howden-TDL return
McLeod-Howden-Gettinger/Meskanen
(One of McLeod/Gettinger/Meskanen as depth.)

skjei-pionk
staal-ADA
lindgren-shattenkirk
smith

hank
georgiev

that roster isnt going to win many games post deadline, expect free fall.

posted in this post-game talk thread, but for anyone who didnt see it there wanted to bring it over here. we shouldnt do so good over the next stretch that we take ourselves out of top 3-pick running, but the stretch may actually turn out to be very beneficial towards TDL returns.

post-deadline, i think it may be some of the most painful rangers hockey i'll have watched, aside from Zibby and Kreider on the top line, Chytil and ADA development, and the Hank dominance in a game or 2 (think Calgary-Vancouver last year) that will steal us a couple games.

 

[Tawnos]

i get the league is getting younger but in 5 years zibanejad is going to be 30. its a bit ridiculous we think he wont be good anymore.

david krejci is 32 and has 40 points in 48 games, very good production that boston is going to need behind pasta-bergeron-marchand

david perron (although not a C) has 35 points in 45 games as a 30 year old.

sure, guys might not play till 35 anymore, but they can still play at 30-33. we cant trade everyone over 30, we need some experience

It’s 100% impossible to predict when a player will slow down, both in foot speed and reaction time. Its happened early to fast players, slow players, medium players, players in great shape, players in ok shape. And the other way around too...
players of all kinds have slowed down later. So yeah, there are guys who don’t slow down until later. Others have it happen a little earlier.

The main point is that both options represent risk. It’s a risk to assume that any one will continue a high level of play really past 29. It’s a risk to trade a very good player now for futures.

 

[Ghost of jas]

the rangers are heading into a real defining stretch before the deadline:

01-19 vs Bruins - Very likely a loss. Should be a rough game that can showcase McQuaid
01-29 vs Flyers - Anyone's guess really. Could come out flat and lose 5-0, or manage to rn up the score and lose 5-4. I personally predict a loss either way. Another rough game beneficial for the McQuaid return.
01-31 vs Devils - Should be a win, where Zucc can make up some more points where he may not get some in the 2 previous. Loss wouldn't be shocking cause Rangers seem to lay the occasional egg against NJ
02-02 vs Lightning - Do I really have to say much? If Lightning start Domingue, you're saying theres a chance?
02-02 vs Kings - I'm pegging this as a win. Never know against LA though. They're bad enough it should be another points game for Zucc/Hayes (who should be back).
02-06 vs Bruins - See 01-19.
02-09 vs Canes - 50/50 as to what we get. I'm guessing you either get the version of this matchup we saw early season, or the version we saw a couple nights ago. In the name of optimism, I'm calling this a win where we see zucc have yet another multi point game.
02-10 vs Leafs - See 02-02, but replace Domingue with Sparks/Hutch. McQuaid with a good showing could catch Dubas' attention as a target.
02-12 vs Jets - Can't even say we have a chance if they start their backup, because Brossoit has been superior to Hellebuyck. Best hope is Hayes shows up to play with a wicked game and almost steals in with a 3 points effort, cementing to the Jets that he is this years Statsny.
02-15 vs Sabres - Should be able to run up the score a little considering we got to Hutton (finally) last time we played them. Should be mentioned all these games where we have a chance to score 4+ are not only good for trade values, but also good for confidence of guys like Chytil/ADA/Nieves.
02-17 vs Pens - We all pretty much know what this is likely going to be right? Answer: a sh**show.
02-19 vs Canes - Chance we could see a trade be made early (ie: Nash last year) and we might already be in the swing of moving guys out. Loosely predicting a loss, hoping if there's guys still sround to showcase, we can capitalize on Carolina sieves in net.
02-21 vs Wild - Should be another win. Not really sure what to expect. Rosters for both teams could be very different this close to deadline.
02-23 vs Devils - See 01-31.
02-24 vs Capitals - Probably a loss, but as always, a non-zero chance we win since we've seemed to be able to squeak atleast 1 win out against the Capitals every year.

Overall Prediction: 5-8-2
Trade Deadline Predictions
-Zucc has good showing with multipoint games against weaker teams/ while still managing to get a point here and there against better teams. Goes for 1st round pick and a prospect.
- McQuaid is the type of guy contenders want on their 3rd pair for the grind. Wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Leafs for a mid round pick and prospect/2 picks.
- Hayes gets shipped to Colorado, Winnipeg or Boston. 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, prospect comes back the other way.
- Namestnikov, Claesson also get moved.

With those guys gone, we don't really have much depth. Call up Lias, Gettinger/Meskanen, run with

Kreider-Zibanejad-Fast
Vesey-Chytil-Buchnevich
Andersson-Howden-TDL return
McLeod-Howden-Gettinger/Meskanen
(One of McLeod/Gettinger/Meskanen as depth.)

skjei-pionk
staal-ADA
lindgren-shattenkirk
smith

hank
georgiev

that roster isnt going to win many games post deadline, expect free fall.

Umm...Strome?

 

[RangerBoy]

Yeah. I spoke to some scouts Thursday and they thought that, given his resume, and given that he had been bothered by a nagging injury for a lot of the first half, this run has lifted Zuccarello’s value. One scout said he could even see how a contender with a need to add an offensive top-six winger might be willing to give up a first-round pick, given that it would likely be a late first-rounder, depending on the team.

I have some doubts that Zuccarello, right now, brings a first as would/will Kevin Hayes, for example. But Zuccarello can also make it more likely by continuing to play this way. Zuccarello has incentive, too, because he’s playing for his next NHL contract, maybe his last contract, too.

This is the draft to load up on 1st rounders. It’s a better draft than last year. The 2020 draft isn’t considered to be a strong draft. There will be good players available but the depth isn’t there.

Only thing is there are many other rentals. Stone most likely stays in Ottawa. They were close to an 8 year contract extension last summer. Duchene? Ottawa would get a 1st for him as a rental. He might sign. Who knows. Which other rentals will get a #1? Simmonds? He is not having a great season. People complain about Zuccarello’s season. Simmonds has 15 goals and 21 points. Nyquist? Skinner? If Buffalo can’t re-sign him. I read he might want $8M per. They have dropped a bit. They will be a wild card or nothing. Tough division. Panarin isn’t being traded. The Islanders aren’t moving their guys. They will sign Lee and Nelson. Eberle will be their self rental. Silfverberg? The Ducks want to re-sign him but they will trade him if they can’t keep him. Ferland.

Signed players could be traded for 1st rounders. The Kings want a #1 and a prospect for Muzzin.

The Rangers could trade a signed player for a deal including a #1.

 

[kinger8998]

Umm...Strome?

oops lol, plug him in the TDL return slot, i knew i was forgetting someone lol. for all the typing i do, i sure do forget some pretty important things like who even plays for the team

 

[kinger8998]

This is the draft to load up on 1st rounders. It’s a better draft than last year. The 2020 draft isn’t considered to be a strong draft. There will be good players available but the depth isn’t there.

Only thing is there are many other rentals. Stone most likely stays in Ottawa. They were close to an 8 year contract extension last summer. Duchene? Ottawa would get a 1st for him as a rental. He might sign. Who knows. Which other rentals will get a #1? Simmonds? He is not having a great season. People complain about Zuccarello’s season. Simmonds has 15 goals and 21 points. Nyquist? Skinner? If Buffalo can’t re-sign him. I read he might want $8M per. They have dropped a bit. They will be a wild card or nothing. Tough division. Panarin isn’t being traded. The Islanders aren’t moving their guys. They will sign Lee and Nelson. Eberle will be their self rental. Silfverberg? The Ducks want to re-sign him but they will trade him if they can’t keep him. Ferland.

Signed players could be traded for 1st rounders. The Kings want a #1 and a prospect for Muzzin.

The Rangers could trade a signed player for a deal including a #1.

2019 looks to be the draft where you can get very good players late into the first round, but 2020 has alot of high end talent in the first 10 picks. both good drafts/just very different drafts.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I just cannot wrap my head around these people that are using the Grabner trade as a parameter for a Zuccarello deal. Grabner wasn't a consistent 50-60 point winger who could play PP, PK and be relied upon at even strength as much as Zucc is. Grabner was a great Ranger who flourished in AV's system, but I am sure we all had a feeling, once traded, that he would fall back down to Earth. So, am I crazy by thinking that if the NYR retain on Zucc, they will easily get a 1st rounder from someone? The 2nd+B-prospect is ridiculous, especially with the recent surge Zucc is on. This is the player that we have come to expect.

Grabner had scored 50+ goals on a season and change as a ranger and was pacing 30+

If zucc keeps this up for the next few weeks we can revisit this but my guess is that once the schedule stiffens up again, those points will stop coming.

Best to move him during the break.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Seems like we could have matched this for Bailey

Who?

 

[Ghost of jas]

oops lol, plug him in the TDL return slot, i knew i was forgetting someone lol. for all the typing i do, i sure do forget some pretty important things like who even plays for the team

Keep him at center and move Chytil to LW, where I think he ends up anyway.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Tyson Jost got demoted to the AHL

 

[kinger8998]

Keep him at center and move Chytil to LW, where I think he ends up anyway.

you could be right...i hope he doesnt end up LW, cause we need that elite C he has the potential to become. potential doesnt always amount to results, but we are only going to have 1 high pick this year, and i was hoping it could be on byram if were not getting hughes/kakko so we had elite C (chytil), elite W (kravtsov), and elite d (byram)

 

[kinger8998]

i feel like the most polarizing player of this rebuild will always be ADA. its really confusing to me though that not everyone is on board with him.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Grabner had scored 50+ goals on a season and change as a ranger and was pacing 30+

If zucc keeps this up for the next few weeks we can revisit this but my guess is that once the schedule stiffens up again, those points will stop coming.

Best to move him during the break.

I can understand why Grabner, although not being as valuable to his team as Zuccarello, is worth basically the same for 2 reasons:

1. Grabner had a lower AAV, easier to fit under the cap at the deadline
2. Grabner showed he can score and perform for more than 1 team, in more than 1 system, under more than 1 coach

That's the biggest critique towards Zuccarello. He has only really performed under AV. Not much he could have done about it, but still. That's something I feel GMs look at as well.

 

[Ghost of jas]

i hope he doesnt end up LW, cause we need that elite C he has the potential to become. potential doesnt always amount to results, but we are only going to have 1 high pick this year, and i was hoping it could be on byram if were not getting hughes/kakko so we had elite C (chytil), elite W (kravtsov), and elite d (byram)

The Rangers are going to have two drafts to find that center. I’m not worried. IMO, Chytil has a better chance to be a top end player on the wing than at center.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I can understand why Grabner, although not being as valuable to his team as Zuccarello, is worth basically the same for 2 reasons:

1. Grabner had a lower AAV, easier to fit under the cap at the deadline
2. Grabner showed he can score and perform for more than 1 team, in more than 1 system, under more than 1 coach

That's the biggest critique towards Zuccarello. He has only really performed under AV. Not much he could have done about it, but still. That's something I feel GMs look at as well.

Fortunately, the information from Carpinello suggests that his recent points surge has re-affirmed his value being higher than Grabner’s. My belief remains that Zuccarello’s return will either be a 1st and a Rykov-level prospect, or a 2nd and an Addison-type of prospect.

 

[Edge]

So breaking down the 2018-2020 drafts.

Gospel according to Edge (subject to my opinion and people I chat with):

2018 is/was seen as having the best depth beyond the first round of the three drafts.

2019 is generally seen as having better depth at the front of the draft, and solid, but not quite as good of depth in the latter half of the first. It's seen as lacking the depth beyond the first.

2020, right now, is seen as having a very good top end, but a steeper fall-off after the top prospects.

If you're looking for bigger returns in the top 10, 2019 and 2020 are seen as giving you better odds.

If you're looking for bigger returns with late first round picks, 2018 and to a less extent 2019 are seen as giving you better odds.

If you're looking looking for the best chances to find talent outside of the first round, 2018 is seen as being the better draft for that.