Speculation: Roster Building Thread : Part XVI (Playoffs or Retool?)

[GoAwayPanarin]

points pace decline from last season

Panarin: 120 - 89 (insane drop off)
Trocheck: 77 - 53
Lafreniere: 57 - 50

Fox: 84 - 67
Kreider: 75 - 38 (insane drop off again)
Zibanejad: 72 - 48 (yikes)


This is the core.

Its reasonable to expect Laf and Fox to bounce back under better circumstances but the rest are over 30 and on the decline or in some cases look completely cooked.


Rempe - Edstrom - Carrick

Borgen - Vaak

Thats who's been driving our "resurgence"?

We're in big trouble.

This is horse shit. Absolute horse shit which is unfortunate because the first half of this post is valid.

Just raw stats since the Chicago game (the start of their current 11 game "resurgence")

5v5 - 28 GF (1st in NHL)

Here are the goal leaders over the last 11 -

Lafreniere - 4 goals
Trocheck/Chytil/Edstrom - 3 goals
Panarin/Kaliyev/Borgen/Kreider- 2 goals

Just a simple look here will tell you

Trocheck's line has accounted for 9 of the 28
Chytils line has scored 7

Thats more than half of the teams output at ES.

They've gotten good production from their 4th line and Borgen has chipped in with a pair, but they're hardly being driven by those guys. They've supplemented what the guys above them have done during the "resurgence."

Analytically the 4th line is 10-11-12 in xGF/60. That isn't knocking them, they're a 4th line. I'd be more worried if they were driving better results than the top 9. They aren't.

Trocheck's line has actually been cooking and producing. They're just not going to be able to shake the illusion of "under performing" because they're playing catchup and there was no way that Panarin was going to match what he did last year.

Sore spots that stood out while I looked into this

- Zibanejad despite looking better has 1 5v5 point in 11 games. His line is actually 1-2-3 in xGF/60 so theres some real shit luck going on here as they have 2 in their last 11 collectively (3 if you want to count the one that Brodzinski netted against Chicago.) Let them continue to be a thing but eventually the chances need to start turning into goals.

- Lindgren is a f***ing train wreck. 43.87 xGF share which is 6th out of 6 by a lot. Vaak is 5th at 49.5% and they are the only 2 D under the 50% mark and a near 50% mark for Vaak is actually quite solid. Fox is sitting at 52.09%. Lindgren's 2.82 xGA is 6th out of 6th by a lot. Not what you want out of a "defensive" defenseman. This horse has been beaten so hard that it came back to life and is now dead again but get this f***ing guy out of here.


Tldr; applying shit that may have been true a month and a half ago to this teams situation right now and giving credit to a 4th line for their current uptick in play is f***ing stupid and totally inaccurate.

There are gripes to be had (zibanejads line hasn’t produced, Kreider hasn’t been good) but let’s not make blanket statements clouded with bias. Facts matter.

 

[bl02]

Yikes.

It's not brain surgery. When you play on a line with 93 you're basically playing 4 vs 5. Cuylle is a terrific player but not superhuman. Not a shocker his stats have turned to shit. 93 is the biggest problem on this team now and future. At least Lindgren will be gone soon and Fox does cover up for a lot of his warts. No one can do well with this version of 93

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It's not brain surgery. When you play on a line with 93 you're basically playing 4 vs 5. Cuylle is a terrific player but not superhuman. Not a shocker his stats have turned to shit. 93 is the biggest problem on this team now and future. At least Lindgren will be gone soon and Fox does cover up for a lot of his warts. No one can do well with this version of 93

Will Cuylle leads the team in individual high danger chances for since being put with Zibanejad.

Pucks haven’t gone in for him. That’s it. That line has been creating more offense than any of our other lines they just haven’t been able to finish.

I’m all for calling out players who are playing like shit but this one doesn’t pass the sniff test, eye test or any test.

 

[kovazub94]

The team has clearly played better in the post-Christmas turnaround.

If we had to point out factors that drove this dynamic then it's clearly on the resurgent goaltending and team defense. On offense Panarin and Fox were the only ones close to ppg during this stretch and offensive contribution from the lower lines would be the next level factors.

I don't need to mention names as it's clear who continue to contribute little to nothing on offense.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Lol at people who think Kreider returns less than a 1st.

A one armed Kreider is returning a 1st plus. Reputation matters.

Miller can and should also return a 1st. Kreider would be the last player is trade unless the off is too good to pass up

 

[McRanger92]

No change to PP1 after we got a power play with 2:50 left in a tie game and lost in regulation.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

No change to PP1 after we got a power play with 2:50 left in a tie game and lost in regulation.

Clownviolette

 

[Machinehead]

If we want changes to the powerplay, we need to bring in additional pieces who can excel at it. All of the second unit guys have proven to be on the second unit for a reason.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

A player struggling 40 games into a season is labeled "in decline."

A player gets hot for 40 games and the response is "let's see him keep doing it before we decide"

It's very unlikely that Fox, Panarin, Trocheck, Zibanejad, and Kreider are all in decline. Maybe 1 or 2 of them, but very unlikely all of them are.

Same with Borgen/Kakko. Kakko is on a heater and we f***ed up his development, this is who he is. Borgen plays well and more sustainably and it's a small sample size.

 

[Siddi]

This is to all the "eye test" posters out there.

Despite all of your posturing and cheast beating about Mika being a detriment to this team and what not. How is it that for the past 10+ games his line leads the team in xGF/60? Mikas line is literally our best line at creating offence.

I would love to see the peanut gallery try to spin this.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

This is to all the "eye test" posters out there.

Despite all of your posturing and cheast beating about Mika being a detriment to this team and what not. How is it that for the past 10+ games his line leads the team in xGF/60? Mikas line is literally our best line at creating offence.

I would love to see the peanut gallery try to spin this.

You’re right, he’s playing great . We’re lucky to have him

 

[SnowblindNYR]

This is horse shit. Absolute horse shit which is unfortunate because the first half of this post is valid.

Just raw stats since the Chicago game (the start of their current 11 game "resurgence")

5v5 - 28 GF (1st in NHL)

Here are the goal leaders over the last 11 -

Lafreniere - 4 goals
Trocheck/Chytil/Edstrom - 3 goals
Panarin/Kaliyev/Borgen/Kreider- 2 goals

Just a simple look here will tell you

Trocheck's line has accounted for 9 of the 28
Chytils line has scored 7

Thats more than half of the teams output at ES.

They've gotten good production from their 4th line and Borgen has chipped in with a pair, but they're hardly being driven by those guys. They've supplemented what the guys above them have done during the "resurgence."

Analytically the 4th line is 10-11-12 in xGF/60. That isn't knocking them, they're a 4th line. I'd be more worried if they were driving better results than the top 9. They aren't.

Trocheck's line has actually been cooking and producing. They're just not going to be able to shake the illusion of "under performing" because they're playing catchup and there was no way that Panarin was going to match what he did last year.

Sore spots that stood out while I looked into this

- Zibanejad despite looking better has 1 5v5 point in 11 games. His line is actually 1-2-3 in xGF/60 so theres some real shit luck going on here as they have 2 in their last 11 collectively (3 if you want to count the one that Brodzinski netted against Chicago.) Let them continue to be a thing but eventually the chances need to start turning into goals.

- Lindgren is a f***ing train wreck. 43.87 xGF share which is 6th out of 6 by a lot. Vaak is 5th at 49.5% and they are the only 2 D under the 50% mark and a near 50% mark for Vaak is actually quite solid. Fox is sitting at 52.09%. Lindgren's 2.82 xGA is 6th out of 6th by a lot. Not what you want out of a "defensive" defenseman. This horse has been beaten so hard that it came back to life and is now dead again but get this f***ing guy out of here.


Tldr; applying shit that may have been true a month and a half ago to this teams situation right now and giving credit to a 4th line for their current uptick in play is f***ing stupid and totally inaccurate.

There are gripes to be had (zibanejads line hasn’t produced, Kreider hasn’t been good) but let’s not make blanket statements clouded with bias. Facts matter.

Speaking of luck, according to money puck the Rangers in expected goals for are 7th in the league, now I believe it's not a per game stat. Last year they were 21st. This is 5 on 5. Team has been unlucky offensively and bad defensively and inconsistent in net. And the PP sucks.

 

[RangerBoy]

Carolina didn't want Miller. They talked to Vancouver about Miller. Carolina wanted EP40 or Rantanen.

Nobody really wants Miller except for Drury and some Rangers fans. Soon to be 32 years old. 5 years remaining. $8M cap hit. Miller sounds like the perfect Ranger. Old and overpriced.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Carolina didn't want Miller. They talked to Vancouver about Miller. Carolina wanted EP40 or Rantanen.

Nobody really wants Miller except for Drury and some Rangers fans. Soon to be 32 years old. 5 years remaining. $8M cap hit. Miller sounds like the perfect Ranger. Old and overpriced.

You're like fancy bern, lol.

 

[kovazub94]

If we want changes to the powerplay, we need to bring in additional pieces who can excel at it. All of the second unit guys have proven to be on the second unit for a reason.

I agree in general but if we are talking about incrementally improving PP1 - Laviolette need to start making personnel changes based on what's available. Kreider and Zibanejad are clearly far from their 2023 PP shape. Lafreniere has been getting better as part of PP1 when he first replaced Zibanejad and then Kreider... before he was yanked. Smith has been going. I'd start with adding them and removing twins.

 

[mrmovies779]

This is to all the "eye test" posters out there.

Despite all of your posturing and cheast beating about Mika being a detriment to this team and what not. How is it that for the past 10+ games his line leads the team in xGF/60? Mikas line is literally our best line at creating offence.

I would love to see the peanut gallery try to spin this.

How many goals has it led to?

 

[kovazub94]

I want Kreider to pull himself out of 4 Nations to get healthy. It's a made-up entertainment competition that replaces ASG and nothing more (for context).

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Miller can and should also return a 1st. Kreider would be the last player is trade unless the off is too good to pass up

Yes let’s trade one of the 5 players who have actually been instrumental in the teams turn around of late for magic beans.

Some of yall need to drop your biases and see shit for the way it actually happens.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

 

[Levitate]

as meh as I am about acquiring JT Miller I think honestly for $8 mill and what he can bring it's not a bad deal. In 3 years $8 mill won't be that much for a 2nd liner center as he declines etc etc
The worry is that the decline comes now or next year but acquiring him is basically trying to shake it up and shoot for another shot while Panarin is around

Of course other teams would rather take the guy 26 year old who has also put up a point per game but he's likely going to cost a lot more.

I think a lot of rangers fans still think of JT Miller as the same player he was with the Rangers. As weird as it is, he legitimately did pan out to be a high end 1C though. He'd likely still be a quality 1C for the next few years.

As for Zib and Cuylle...Cuylle was struggling before he was put on that line. He had definitely cooled down and wasn't getting the looks he had been before. Has nothing to do with being moved to that line.

But the problem with zibanejad's line for the past, I dunno, 3 years? is always that "they're doing so well at the xGF game!" but for whatever reason tehy don't actually score enough.
At some point I don't care as much about the xGF if you're not actually scoring and it's your job to score

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

If we want changes to the powerplay, we need to bring in additional pieces who can excel at it. All of the second unit guys have proven to be on the second unit for a reason.

I agree but I do think Laffy needs time to cook up on the first unit. He might be off for a while but he has the talent to be there(in my opinion).

 

[tiggles]

Chytil had a brief stint on PP1 two seasons ago and looked great - I forget who was injured that he came on for. Don't remember if it's ever been tried again since then, but it should be.

 

[Machinehead]

I agree but I do think Laffy needs time to cook up on the first unit. He might be off for a while but he has the talent to be there(in my opinion).

The place I see him excelling is Kreider's spot and I could be convinced to make that move.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

 

[UnparalledPark]

Bingo.

What? That Zib and Kreider in that picture, are the only ones on the ice practicing, while Zib is calling for the young guys to get off their rears? I think that’s just speculation.