Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLVI

[egelband]

I do wonder how much offer sheet talk is posturing to force a trade.

If think that all these "potential offer sheet" stars like Marner and Point end up re-signed with their current teams. Those teams will move out other contracts to make room. They wouldn't/shouldn't lose their stars. Unless they're ridiculously incompetent.

 

[Barnaby]

Re: Trouba...I’ve raised the possibility of trading both Andersson and Lundkvist as part of a deal. It’s possible that the two of them could be the deal. Young assets are exactly that, assets.

You need to think like the Jets GM. If they keep Trouba this year as a self rental, he walks for nothing next year. Winnipeg has traded away two firsts and some young players in the last 18 months. They are extremely tight on the cap. They need short and long term help up the middle. They are a draft and develop team.

Now think like Gorton. Trouba is going to be an $8MM player this year or next year. I seriously doubt anyone trades for him unless they are confident he will sign a long term contract which means he is essentially off the market for the future. He is 25. Let that sink in for a minute. He’s a year younger than Mika. And he is an exceptionally good defensive player with some bite, something the Rangers haven’t had on the back end in years. He is not Victor Herman or Drew Doughty but he could be a cornerstone of the rebuild for many years to come.

There’s a deal to be made here.

WPG wants to win NOW. If they trade Trouba then they want usable assets, not Lias and/or Lundkvist

 

[egelband]

It’s points vs his contract, $8m is a lot of money for a guy who’s main purpose is to just play defense, you can get that for way cheaper IMO

This is a good point. I think Trouba is more than that. But for that money you do want a stud number one type. I'd leave it to the scouts to make that call.

 

[bobbop]

WPG wants to win NOW. If they trade Trouba then they want usable assets, not Lias and/or Lundkvist

I’ll be happy to offer them usable assets but go look at their salary cap situation and the contracts that they have to sign this and next offseason. They are not flush by any means. They are also publicly talking about replenishing their young assets after the last two trade deadlines.

 

[bobbop]

I agree re: Names, he's not a bad player at all but he's definitely a player I'm not looking for excuses to keep in the line-up.

Namestnikov is a good player. The only thing wrong with him is his contract. He’s about$1.5MM overpaid.

 

[Barnaby]

I’ll be happy to offer them usable assets but go look at their salary cap situation and the contracts that they have to sign this and next offseason. They are not flush by any means. They are also publicly talking about replenishing their young assets after the last two trade deadlines.

Yea, I’m aware of their cap but they are still a win now team. Getting back cheap players that can’t contribute won’t help their cap bc they’ll need to find help elsewhere. They will want young players not making much that can contribute now. Lias hasn’t shown anything at this point and Lundkvist is years away. I have to believe that if Trouba is truly that good then someone can beat a win now offer of Lias/Lundkvist. If you decide to take the Trouba dive then you are going to give up assets that make you uncomfortable. We wouldn’t be the only team making an offer.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Did he get in enough games to legitimately qualify?

A player must have at least 41 games played with the club or one game played in the Stanley Cup Finals. However, in 1994 a stipulation was added to allow a team to petition the Commissioner for permission to have players' names put on the Cup if extenuating circumstances prevented them from being available to play.

 

[Ola]

His value is low now. I'd hold on to Lias. Plus, his upside is...really...the kind of player you want to keep. If the Rangers have totally given up on him, sure, trade him. But otherwise, keep him.

Exactly my thought.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

WPG wants to win NOW. If they trade Trouba then they want usable assets, not Lias and/or Lundkvist

They may be a "win now" team but they are in an extremely tight cap situation. That makes completing a hockey trade difficult. Looking at their cap commitments for the 2020-21 season they have $47MM committed to 9 players. They have to resign Laine and Connor this offseason and then Morrisey next offseason. Those 3 combined will likely command $18-$20MM. Now your at $67MM for 12 players not even counting Trouba.

If the cap is $83MM next season then it likely goes into the high $80MM range for the following season. They would have just $20MM approx to sign 10 more players. They aren't getting a stud young NHL player on an ELC for Trouba. They cant really take salary back either.

 

[SA16]

The Blues win helps the argument to bring in Panarin. They proved you can win with albatross contracts so even if we’re not ready until years 6/7 and he has to be play down the lineup it’s fine. They won paying a goalie who didn’t play at all 4.5M, Steen on the 4th line 5.75M, and old Bouwmeester 5.4M. That’s over 15M for guys who really were not impact players for them.

 

[pld459666]

He's Malkin.

Jagr's first full season with the Rangers was age 33 and he ended a rebuild.

Except this time, we already have a 2nd OA pick.

Malkin is no Jagr.

I'd take Jagr over Geno 10/10 times

 

[pld459666]

Does anyone think we could pry McAvoy or Pastrnak out of Boston? They might be looking to make some changes after a disappointing end to the year. Would they be interested in a package including Andersson, Fast, and the 20? We could also include Kreider at 50% to help them for next year.

If they are, and I doubt that they are, it's not two corner stones guys that get moved.

 

[kovazub94]

Trouba doesn't come close to getting Zib. More like L.A and a pick.

You misspelled Pionk. It’s Lias and Pionk.

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

The Blues win helps the argument to bring in Panarin. They proved you can win with albatross contracts so even if we’re not ready until years 6/7 and he has to be play down the lineup it’s fine. They won paying a goalie who didn’t play at all 4.5M, Steen on the 4th line 5.75M, and old Bouwmeester 5.4M. That’s over 15M for guys who really were not impact players for them.

$5.4M = albatross. What does that make a declining 33 year old $11M player? Behemoth? Gargantuan? Colossus? I like that one the best

 

[DutchShamrock]

If think that all these "potential offer sheet" stars like Marner and Point end up re-signed with their current teams. Those teams will move out other contracts to make room. They wouldn't/shouldn't lose their stars. Unless they're ridiculously incompetent.

Not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing but I was implying that those teams would trade other players, not the marner and point types.

Basically if they fear an offersheet, they'll move cap early. If they have all the time in the world, like with Nylander, they will hold on to everything.

Teams want to do a deal on their terms. Sign their own deal, not philly's with Weber. If they are afraid that Marner will get $12.5m on July 1, maybe they trade Nylander for less than market value so they can free the cap before that date.

 

[kovazub94]

Our second best NHL-ready pieces after Zibanejad are expiring Kreider, Skjei and Buchnevich, who are all less valuable to a win-now team than Trouba, so I don't think it was like an insane tweet

This is exactly why this is an insane tweet as you put it. Trouba will not be resigning with the Jets so his return value is nowhere near Zibanejad. Recent example where the Rangers were the beneficiary - acquisition of Fox for two second rounders. Same CONCEPT (of course Trouba would return more to the Jets, including because the market is not just the Rangers).

 

[egelband]

Not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing but I was implying that those teams would trade other players, not the marner and point types.

Basically if they fear an offersheet, they'll move cap early. If they have all the time in the world, like with Nylander, they will hold on to everything.

Teams want to do a deal on their terms. Sign their own deal, not philly's with Weber. If they are afraid that Marner will get $12.5m on July 1, maybe they trade Nylander for less than market value so they can free the cap before that date.

I agree. Basically, I'd be really surprised if an offer sheet were signed and even more surprised if it weren't matched. Point and Marner will remain with their respective current teams.

 

[kovazub94]

Does anyone think we could pry McAvoy or Pastrnak out of Boston? They might be looking to make some changes after a disappointing end to the year. Would they be interested in a package including Andersson, Fast, and the 20? We could also include Kreider at 50% to help them for next year.

Disappointing? Getting to game 7 of SCF? It will be stinging getting so close and not winning but disappointing is definitely not it and it as close as possible to 100% guarantee that Bruins will not be breaking up this core.

 

[RGY]

$5.4M = albatross. What does that make a declining 33 year old $11M player? Behemoth? Gargantuan? Colossus? I like that one the best

At the time those contracts were signed they were a higher % of the cap hit and I guarantee their fans had the same concerns we do with how those deals would look in 3-5 years.

The way this goes south for us is if the NHL has a lockout and/or the cap stops going up every year. That is not a sure thing to happen. It has been trending upward. The league is doing well. They are adding a 32nd team. All 31 teams were on board with it. If the league was in trouble the other owners would have spoken up.

 

[Kocur Dill]

Re: Trouba...I’ve raised the possibility of trading both Andersson and Lundkvist as part of a deal. It’s possible that the two of them could be the deal. Young assets are exactly that, assets.

You need to think like the Jets GM. If they keep Trouba this year as a self rental, he walks for nothing next year. Winnipeg has traded away two firsts and some young players in the last 18 months. They are extremely tight on the cap. They need short and long term help up the middle. They are a draft and develop team.

Now think like Gorton. Trouba is going to be an $8MM player this year or next year. I seriously doubt anyone trades for him unless they are confident he will sign a long term contract which means he is essentially off the market for the future. He is 25. Let that sink in for a minute. He’s a year younger than Mika. And he is an exceptionally good defensive player with some bite, something the Rangers haven’t had on the back end in years. He is not Victor Herman or Drew Doughty but he could be a cornerstone of the rebuild for many years to come.

There’s a deal to be made here.

He could also be a Mike Komaserik. The injury history is a substantial concern for someone on the cusp of signing the longest and highest dollar amount contract of his career.

Imagine we sign him 8x7 and 5 of those years are spent anchoring 10% of the cap and we get limited 3rd pair minutes out of him ~50 games a season.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Shattenkirk

Blues - cup after he left
Caps - cup after he left
Rangers -

 

[Irishguy42]

Shattenkirk

Blues - cup after he left
Caps - cup after he left
Rangers -

Blues traded Shattenkirk away and won the Cup two seasons later.


Capitals lost Shattenkirk to UFA and then won the Cup the following season.


Makes you think...

@ me mext time, boo

 

[Player big P]

Shattenkirk

Blues - cup after he left
Caps - cup after he left
Rangers -

 

[RangerBoy]

I love all of the anti-rebuild people saying you don't need to strip the team down and bottom out when the Rangers have essentially done that with their team. The Rangers had the fewest ROW's last season. A handful of players are left from the Rangers 2014-2015 teams. One of those remaining players might not be here before the start of the season. You need to have a discussion with Jeff Gorton.

The Blues were in the running to win the Jack Hughes draft lottery on January. We had a thread there tracking the #1 pick. The Blues were in prime position. The GM wanted to blow up the entire team but he couldn't find the right match or it wasn't the right point in the season. Jordan Binnington won them a Stanley Cup. He should won the Conn Smythe. That would be like Brandon Halverson leading the Rangers to the Cup. Back-up goaltender in the AHL. Fourth of the depth chart. That's crazy. I remember the Rangers played the Blues on New Year's Eve. The Blues thought about playing Bennington but they stuck with Allen. They were afraid to play Binnigton.

JD went to the Blues in 2006. They already had the #1 pick in the draft that year. John was in the broadcast booth with Sam in 05-06. The team was awful. The Blues had two #1 picks in 2006. They traded Weight for the later 1st in 2006. Three 1st round picks in 2007. Tkachuk and Guerin were traded for the two later 2007 1st's. They took Pietrangelo 4th overall in 2008. Another shitty season. Some of the people make it seem the Blues weren't bad. They took Rundblad in 2009 and flipped him to Ottawa for 1st in 2010 to select to Tarasenko who was a top 5 talent. Schwartz was their other 1st in 2010.

They sucked. They traded older players. They had multiple 1st round picks. Sounds familiar.

It just took them forever to win. The fourth or fifth string goaltender won them a Cup. They traded for Halak and Ryan Miller. Didn't win.

 

[mas0764]

STL was not bad for many years, that is extremely incorrect.

Unless you are citing them being bad in 2007, 12 freaking years ago.

They made the most of their mid to late 1st round picks, which they had because they didnt trade all of them. They made some good trades and even some bold ones, such as Schenn and ROR, respectively. They struck gold with their goaltender halfway through a very muddy season in which they fired their coach.

Lets not act like they stripped it down and went through some serious rebuild, which is why tanking is absolutely not mandatory to building a champion.

Yeah, the Blues do not support that "tank or else" team building theory in the slightest. This is a team that made the playoffs in 6 of the previous 7 seasons before this one. They hadn't "bottomed out" or "tanked" since 2005-06 or, arguably, 2007-08, and when they did, they drafted Erik Johnson who is no longer on their team, and Alex Pietrangelo, who is obviously a valuable piece, but still, he's just one guy taken at 4th overall.If you're gonna say the Blues are the model, we have already done everything they had done, and we've even exceeded that. There is not necessarily any reason to continue, if you are following the Blues. They had 9 first rounders in 6 years - we are gonna have 9 in 4 years.

The one key point here is that the Blues have "no big time free agents," but the Blues are also a small market, small coverage, non free agent destination.

Again, I'm relatively speaking a big time pro-tanker. The Blues did very well with their draft picks and trades to get to where they are, but there's just no replacing a player of Kakko's caliber. And there would be no replacing a guy like Byfield or Lafreniere if we were to get one of them next year. But with a bird in hand in Kakko, and the lottery odds so fickle, and with our roster of young talent already on the upswing in some respects (and thus we are unlikely to finish in the bottom-3 and get the best odds), we are gonna have to rely on luck striking again. If I can get a low-tread high impact FA, I'm not gonna pass on that and hope for lottery luck that's unlikely to strike twice. Especially when the impact that FA will have is probably not enough to dramatically move the needle anyway this season due to the team's overall youth.