Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLV

[Leetch3]

that's not what i wrote, i said IF he gets taken, then other guys are not
That is always my single critical point re Expansion draft, they can only lose one player, no way to predict who gets taken, and whoever it is, the team has depth to backfill

NYR may have a challenge, deciding who the 6th/7th F that they protect will be, after KZB, Bread, Chytil
If it's me, I lean towards protecting Gauthier(upside) and Lemieux(hard to replace intangibles), unless Lias still belongs to NYR has a monster season in SHL, or Lemieux has a terrible season.

Expose Strome, along with others, maybe he's taken, maybe not.

And this is no disrespect to Strome, I like how he has played,
i was the guy who argued last fall that if they named a C then, maybe it should go to Strome
(won't rehash fully, but i pray they don't burden Zib w C, and back then Kreider was pending UFA...)

I don't see Strome as a guy to protect - many of you guys do. I respect that
I don't see Howden as a guy to protect - coach Quinn might . I respect that

to me protecting Strome is not a slam dunk, as i wrote, i don't see great harm exposing him

the harm in expose strome so you can protect younger 4th liners is that strome actually has value. it comes to asset management. you don't expose your 2C to protect a 4th liner. if strome has another year with panarin you could easily trade him for a 1st round pick. you don't expose him to protect lemieux or gauthier. i will be pissed if we lose either but the values aren't even in the same ballpark.

 

[CTRanger]

he's too valuable to lose in the expansion draft...if he signs for more than 1 year he will either be protected or traded if we can't protect him.

I agree, it simply keeps all of our options open.

 

[True Blue]

If he's playing behind Trouba and Fox, then he is 3rd pair on our team, unless he can play on the left side.

That is not the way that ice time is being distributed. His ice time does not dictate that he is a third pairing defenseman. It is just easy to paint a picture of that.

 

[True Blue]

Whether or not we should trade Trouba is a separate discussion from whether or not we can trade Trouba. One is an opinion-based inquiry, the other is a statement of fact.

But the fact remains that there is NO WAY that they are trading Trouba. Why debate the possible merits of faults of something when it has zero chance of occurring? You can do as you will of course, but why not simply have posts slamming Gorton and Co. for not trading him? That is an actual item.

 

[Avery16]

But the fact remains that there is NO WAY that they are trading Trouba. Why debate the possible merits of faults of something when it has zero chance of occurring? You can do as you will of course, but why not simply have posts slamming Gorton and Co. for not trading him? That is an actual item.

Possibly because I don’t have a motivation for that. The larger and still relevant discussion is how we keep our RFAs over the next few seasons with a flat cap, a few anchor contracts, and dead space from buyouts. None of the options are painless, but I think it’s important, as it is generally speaking, that all controlling factors are recognized.

I am for keeping Trouba and Fox and ADA if we can, but I would trade Trouba for the right return before I moved Buchnevich and certainly before losing ADA. I would trade Strome rather than lose ADA and/or Buchnevich.

These are conversations that many here have been having for months, and this is the appropriate thread for those. If they get on your nerves, maybe try another thread or the mute button.

 

[cwede]

the harm in expose strome so you can protect younger 4th liners is that strome actually has value. it comes to asset management. you don't expose your 2C to protect a 4th liner. if strome has another year with panarin you could easily trade him for a 1st round pick. you don't expose him to protect lemieux or gauthier. i will be pissed if we lose either but the values aren't even in the same ballpark.

i appreciate your points, just not convinced.
Strome is currently 2C on this team, but on others, he might be the 6th-10thF, who slides up and down the lineup, depending on need and performance. He had a strong second half, once planted along side Bread, but just last night watching the Dec game vs Canes, he scored, and it was his 1st or 2d G in ~18 games.

Re asset management, turning Spooner into (a) a contributor to a MVP season, and then (b) saving the team from losing young players heading into a 500+ game NHL careers to Seattle, that's pretty good asset management.

If they trade Strome for something good before '20-21, or at '21 TDL, i am fine with that.
But if he is on roster at Exp draft time, I dont see him as priority to protect.
Maybe i am wrong, won't be first or last time

Mostly, I just think too many folks here at HFBoards make way too big a deal of the Expansion draft.
No team gets too hurt, a team can only lose one guy.
And as mentioned, predicting who gets picked is a crapshoot.
Oscar Lindberg has become a trivia answer, Fast is 5-time reigning NYR 'Player's Player.'

Look at that Vegas situation. The teams that came out worst were teams which over-thunk it, like Fla and Ana and CBJ.
Expose a bunch of guys, lose 1, keep doing what you're doing ...

 

[Thirty One]

Mostly, I just think too many folks here at HFBoards make way too big a deal of the Expansion draft.
No team gets too hurt, a team can only lose one guy.

Not Florida.

 

[DutchShamrock]

again you can frame it as “he lines up on the third pair” but the reality is he had the 3rd highest even strength time on ice among our D this season excluding Skjei, and he’s the guy on the top PP unit, so his usage isn’t “third pair” at all. Just because that may be where he’s slotted on paper doesn’t mean his impact is that of a “third pairing defenseman”. He still impacts a game far more than Strome does.

Also you can downplay Chytil if you want but he could absolutely overtake Strome in the next season or so.

keeping Strome in favor of Tony would be a 97-04 type roster move

Frankly if it really comes down to it, it’s ADA over Trouba. I love Trouba but that isn’t really a hard choice. You just don’t trade a player like Deangelo once he’s figured it out.

Alright, you lose your credibility with Trouba going first. If you don't understand no move clauses than there is no basis for a discussion. Unless you are being misleading...

When this team has to make tough financial choices, they can choose to pay 2 RHD $14m total, and then pay Fox when he is up, and sacrifice left defense and center.

Or they can start moving in other ELC right defensemen and spread the cap around other places.

Trouba is here to stay, despite my wishes last summer but that case is closed. Fox cannot go anywhere with his low cap and performance.

Something has to give. My hope is they get creative elsewhere. I want to keep all of these guys but that's unlikely.

 

[DutchShamrock]

If he's playing behind Trouba and Fox, then he is 3rd pair on our team, unless he can play on the left side.

This is the simple fact. It's no disrespect to ADA or a ceiling on his potential. We have a logjam. It isn't smart to invest that much into that position.

I like Gorton but this is his blunder. He should have locked up Tony long term last summer. He blew a ton of cap in a short window. A good chunk was tied up in stupid buy outs. There are consequences to poor cap management and having the luxury of paying your 3rd right d $6m per is not one of them.

 

[UnSandvich]

Am pretty sure that my viewpoints are not obfuscated. Because I believe that if this is what Strome morphs to when with Panarin, them the ability to being able to deploy a Panarin- Strome line and a ZBad- Kreider line is more valuable than a Buchnevich. Couple that with his ability to play wing, that adds more value. And yes, my belief is rooted in the fact that I do not believe that anyone can do it. Or that anyone will produce similar results.

Strome has been producing ever since he got here. But people keep are constantly looking for reasons to discount beyond what is reasonable, IMO.

Kreider+Zibanejad got killed when away from Buch. Having Buchnevich is more important when it comes to spreading the team scoring depth than having Strome with Panarin. And while I don't thing *anybody* can do what Strome did, I'm not going to look past the fact that he was a career average 37 point player until glued to a Hart candidate, and that number is brought up by a single 50 point season in 2014-15.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]per NST's line tool[/TD][TD]CF%[/TD][TD]FF%[/TD][TD]SF%[/TD][TD]GF%[/TD][TD]xGF%[/TD][TD]SCF%[/TD][TD]HDCF% [/TD][TD]HDGF%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]K+Z, no Buch[/TD][TD]51.06%[/TD][TD]50.38%[/TD][TD]52.24%[/TD][TD]47.62%[/TD][TD]39.92%[/TD][TD]47.98%[/TD][TD]41.25% [/TD][TD]42.86%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]KZB[/TD][TD]52.82%[/TD][TD]54.24%[/TD][TD]55.07%[/TD][TD]64.29%[/TD][TD]53.79%[/TD][TD]57.04%[/TD][TD]54.17% [/TD][TD]63.16%[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
EDIT: For perspective, K+Z had a worse xGF% without Buch this season than guys like Smith, Staal, or McKegg had total on the year.

 

[SA16]

Strome maybe $5MM for two. No way they are giving DeAngelo that kind of money. What is his leverage?

Presumably being a good player but what do I know?

Also signing Strome with the plan to expose him to SEA makes zero sense. Either he has a strong season and exposing him is stupid because you can keep him/trade him for a return now that he has shown it two years in a row. Or he has a bad season and you're stuck with him because they won't claim him.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

This is the simple fact. It's no disrespect to ADA or a ceiling on his potential. We have a logjam. It isn't smart to invest that much into that position.

I like Gorton but this is his blunder. He should have locked up Tony long term last summer. He blew a ton of cap in a short window. A good chunk was tied up in stupid buy outs. There are consequences to poor cap management and having the luxury of paying your 3rd right d $6m per is not one of them.

I don't think it's wise to really look at the Right D situation and label him a 3rd pairing defender.

He was 3rd amongst our D in 5v5 TOI (regardless of handedness) after the new year. That firmly entrenches him as a 2nd pair guy in terms of actual usage. He took a bunch of shifts on the left side too, its not like this is something he can't do.

It isn't necessarily investing in RD alone, but the D all together. Keep the guys who are good at what they do. We have a ton of dead space tied up in Smith and Staal, those are dollars which will more than cover DeAngelo's next raise (and then some.)

 

[Avery16]

This is the simple fact. It's no disrespect to ADA or a ceiling on his potential. We have a logjam. It isn't smart to invest that much into that position.

I like Gorton but this is his blunder. He should have locked up Tony long term last summer. He blew a ton of cap in a short window. A good chunk was tied up in stupid buy outs. There are consequences to poor cap management and having the luxury of paying your 3rd right d $6m per is not one of them.

It might be factually correct, but it twists the term so much that it no longer has its common usage meaning. ADA and Faulk in St. Louis are not "third-pair defenders" in terms of ability, wherever they may be slotted. We might as well come up with a new term that covers defenders who were top-five league-wide in positional scoring, but had third-pair ES TOI/GP. 'Third-pair' doesn't cut it as a descriptor in reference to ADA.

 

[True Blue]

These are conversations that many here have been having for months, and this is the appropriate thread for those. If they get on your nerves, maybe try another thread or the mute button.

It doesn't get on my nerves. I just do not understand how inserting scenarios that have absolutely no chance of happening into conversations is helpful.

 

[GAGLine]

It might be factually correct, but it twists the term so much that it no longer has its common usage meaning. ADA and Faulk in St. Louis are not "third-pair defenders" in terms of ability, wherever they may be slotted. We might as well come up with a new term that covers defenders who were top-five league-wide in positional scoring, but had third-pair ES TOI/GP. 'Third-pair' doesn't cut it as a descriptor in reference to ADA.

No one called him a 3rd pair defender. The discussion was in terms of how many minutes he gets at even strength if Trouba and Fox are both getting more.

 

[True Blue]

Kreider+Zibanejad got killed when away from Buch. Having Buchnevich is more important when it comes to spreading the team scoring depth than having Strome with Panarin. And while I don't thing *anybody* can do what Strome did, I'm not going to look past the fact that he was a career average 37 point player until glued to a Hart candidate, and that number is brought up by a single 50 point season in 2014-15.

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]per NST's line tool[/TD][TD]CF%[/TD][TD]FF%[/TD][TD]SF%[/TD][TD]GF%[/TD][TD]xGF%[/TD][TD]SCF%[/TD][TD]HDCF% [/TD][TD]HDGF%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]K+Z, no Buch[/TD][TD]51.06%[/TD][TD]50.38%[/TD][TD]52.24%[/TD][TD]47.62%[/TD][TD]39.92%[/TD][TD]47.98%[/TD][TD]41.25% [/TD][TD]42.86%[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]KZB[/TD][TD]52.82%[/TD][TD]54.24%[/TD][TD]55.07%[/TD][TD]64.29%[/TD][TD]53.79%[/TD][TD]57.04%[/TD][TD]54.17% [/TD][TD]63.16%[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
EDIT: For perspective, K+Z had a worse xGF% without Buch this season than guys like Smith, Staal, or McKegg had total on the year.

Not going into every stat as one can poke holes in each, but I do not see Kreider and ZBad being dependent on Buchnevich to to get their scoring is not realistic.

No one doubts that Panarin had a hand in Strome's production. But his numbers without Panarin since he got here, are still pretty good. One could say second line pretty good. So yeah, I have doubts that a Chytil or any third line player can produce what Panarin and Strome produced. What I do know is that having Strome click with Panarin enabled the coaching staff to deploy their top two offensive players on two separate lines. And that is no small thing.

 

[Avery16]

But his numbers without Panarin since he got here, are still pretty good. One could say second line pretty good.

No. No one could say that .52 points/GP is “second line pretty good”. Without Panarin, Strome is third-line depth. He shouldn’t get paid like anything else.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

No. No one could say that .52 points/GP is “second line pretty good”. Without Panarin, Strome is third-line depth. He shouldn’t get paid like anything else.

so, Tyler Johnson money.

 

[UnSandvich]

Not going into every stat as one can poke holes in each, but I do not see Kreider and ZBad being dependent on Buchnevich to to get their scoring is not realistic.

No one doubts that Panarin had a hand in Strome's production. But his numbers without Panarin since he got here, are still pretty good. One could say second line pretty good. So yeah, I have doubts that a Chytil or any third line player can produce what Panarin and Strome produced. What I do know is that having Strome click with Panarin enabled the coaching staff to deploy their top two offensive players on two separate lines. And that is no small thing.

Whether you believe it or not, the fact of the matter is that Kreider and Zibanejad were much worse at 5v5 without Buchnevich than they were with him. MUCH much worse.

And no, Strome's numbers without Panarin aren't "Pretty good".

CF%: 44.95%
FF%: 44.64%
SF%: 45.15%
GF%: 47.37%
xGF%: 45.17%
SCF%: 42.5%
HDCF%: 46.72%
HDGF%: 41.67%

If those are 2C numbers, then that team is getting killed nightly. Strome is 1 Panarin injury from being a 35 point player.

 

[Avery16]

so, Tyler Johnson money.

besides this outlier season, Johnson’s annual pts/GP has regularly been higher than Stromes.

 

[cwede]

so, Tyler Johnson money.

$5m/yr Cap Hit, thru age 33 season, could make things tough during these flat Cap seasons
Tyler Johnson - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Johnson’s annual pts/GP has regularly been higher than Stromes.

Be honest, how much do you hate Ryan Strome?

 

[cwede]

besides this outlier season, Johnson’s annual pts/GP has regularly been higher than Stromes.

career
Johnson 0.635 > Strome 0.517
Strome as NYR: 0.737

 

[Avery16]

career
Johnson 0.635 > Strome 0.517
Strome as NYR: 0.737

Now do Strome as NYR pre Panarin

 

[Avery16]

hockeydb must sure hate Strome to keep his seasons of third-line production posted all the time