Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLV

[haveandare]

There's a number of moving parts and unknowns at this time, which isn't surprising considering that we are all of 15-23 months into this process.

There's this feeling inside me that we're trying to push moves that come at the 36-40 month mark now. And those extra months are vital to figuring out what the hell is really going on, beyond making guesses.

I see a lot of the same thought-process behind believing that the draft always drops right before we pick in the mindset that now is the time, and these are are the acquisitions. And even when people use examples like Hossa, there's almost this tendency to forget that moves tended to come in that 36-40 month mark that we now seem scared to hit.

There's this fear that we're missing out. Either a player doesn't come around very often, or we're going to develop a losing culture, or something along those lines.

This is true, but sometimes you actually are missing out. Sometimes players are available who don't come around often. Sometimes you need to support your young players with talent. We can debate if this is one of those times, but those times do come.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Seravalli from TSN is saying the Jets have engaged in talks with multiple teams for Trouba.

Report: Jets shopping Trouba

Apparently he's looking for over 8M. Insane. Lockout 2.0 here we come.

 

[SA16]

Seravalli from TSN is saying the Jets have engaged in talks with multiple teams for Trouba.

Report: Jets shopping Trouba

Apparently he's looking for over 8M. Insane. Lockout 2.0 here we come.

Doesn't seem like a ridiculous contract for a 1RD to me at all. Now I'm not exactly interested in trading assets for him and THEN signing him to that contract though. I mean he's already making 5.5M this year alone on an RFA year and is coming off his best year when he scored 50 points. It's not like he's going to get much less than 8M.

 

[Calad]

Doesn't seem like a ridiculous contract for a 1RD to me at all. Now I'm not exactly interested in trading assets for him and THEN signing him to that contract though. I mean he's already making 5.5M this year alone on an RFA year and is coming off his best year when he scored 50 points. It's not like he's going to get much less than 8M.

I don't think Trouba is a cornerstone defenseman. He is very talented and is probably a top pair D at this point in time, but when when I've watched him he doesn't strike me as a player that can carry a defense core

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Basically for Trouba to be “worth” 8M+ he has to hit #1D production of ~50+ points which means he needs to get the lion’s share of PP minutes.

Which means ADA/Fox will be fighting for remaining minutes.

It probably makes decent sense (birds in hand and all) but it is a factor that needs to be considered. Not sure how the NYR would think through it.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

Basically for Trouba to be “worth” 8M+ he has to hit #1D production of ~50+ points which means he needs to get the lion’s share of PP minutes.

Which means ADA/Fox will be fighting for remaining minutes.

It probably makes decent sense (birds in hand and all) but it is a factor that needs to be considered. Not sure how the NYR would think through it.

And they still have ShitAndHurt/Fattenkirk at the moment

 

[GAGLine]

Think we could get into the top 10 with CK + 20?

Devils: Not happening
Chicago: Not happening
Colorado: Not happening (though I could see a deal for the 16th pick)
LA: Limited cap space, too old as it is.
Detroit: In a rebuild
Buffalo: Plenty of cap space even after they re-sign Skinner. They need to make the playoffs and may not want to wait for a prospect. Kreider might re-sign there.
Edmonton: Limited cap space, would be interested, but doubt Kreider would re-sign.
Anaheim: Limited cap space, too old as it is.
Vancouver: In a rebuild

So, maybe Buffalo. Maybe we retain in a deal with Edmonton and they spend the next year trying to sell him on the idea of re-signing. Playing next to McDavid could have a large effect on his stats and his wallet.

I think it's far more likely that we trade him for a middle 1st pick (without giving up 20th overall), with the best options being Florida at 13 if they miss out on Panarin, Arizona at 14, Colorado at 16 and Dallas at 18. If we trade him to Arizona, maybe someone we like falls to that spot, or we can make another move to move up a few spots and grab the player we want.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Doesn't seem like a ridiculous contract for a 1RD to me at all. Now I'm not exactly interested in trading assets for him and THEN signing him to that contract though. I mean he's already making 5.5M this year alone on an RFA year and is coming off his best year when he scored 50 points. It's not like he's going to get much less than 8M.

With the exception of this year, he's averaged 25P his career. That's not 1D material. If he can replicate his offensive production from this year, that's a different story.

 

[Beacon]

Rental Holden returned a 3rd rounder, so once Shatty and Staal, maybe Smith, are rentals around the 2021 TDL, the will bring back a 2-3 round pick. Holden was a straight third pair defensemen. Shatty and Staal can play in the top-4, and would be extremely effective on the third pair against lower-end role player opposition. Depending on how their seasons go, we will likely get 2, 2 and 3 or at least 2, 3, 4 if things really go off the rails.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Devils: Not happening
Chicago: Not happening
Colorado: Not happening (though I could see a deal for the 16th pick)
LA: Limited cap space, too old as it is.
Detroit: In a rebuild
Buffalo: Plenty of cap space even after they re-sign Skinner. They need to make the playoffs and may not want to wait for a prospect. Kreider might re-sign there.
Edmonton: Limited cap space, would be interested, but doubt Kreider would re-sign.
Anaheim: Limited cap space, too old as it is.
Vancouver: In a rebuild

So, maybe Buffalo. Maybe we retain in a deal with Edmonton and they spend the next year trying to sell him on the idea of re-signing. Playing next to McDavid could have a large effect on his stats and his wallet.

I think it's far more likely that we trade him for a middle 1st pick (without giving up 20th overall), with the best options being Florida at 13 if they miss out on Panarin, Arizona at 14, Colorado at 16 and Dallas at 18. If we trade him to Arizona, maybe someone we like falls to that spot, or we can make another move to move up a few spots and grab the player we want.

Well said.

Their best chance at getting into the top 10 is to trade Kreider for a mid 1st and then try to overwhelm a team with a shallow system ahead of you with multiple picks including that mid 1st.

Honestly with the way that the mid-late teens of this draft is wide the f*** open, there should be room to move into that range using 20+ other picks. I get wanting another pick in this draft but unless we're locking into Zegras, I'd rather trade Kreider for "now" help (not old now help.)

 

[DanielBrassard]

With the exception of this year, he's averaged 25P his career. That's not 1D material. If he can replicate his offensive production from this year, that's a different story.

That's mostly because of PP time. He is always at the top tier in 5v5 P/60, over the past 3 seasons he's 16th for defenseman who have played 2000 minutes minimum. Now should we give 8M to a defenseman who might not be on our top PP unit? That's an interesting debate to have.

 

[Edge]

No because it takes 2 teams to play ball, and I don't think any team in the top 10 will want to trade out of it because of the dropoff in talent after the top 10ish players

And this is the part that I think gets subjective.

Depending on who you talk to, outside of Hughes and Kakko, the following players all "could" be top 10 picks, or are risers, or some other desirable adjective depending on the week:

Byram
Cozens
Dach
Turcotte
Zegras
Newhook
Caufield
Podkolzin
Boldy
Broberg
Krebs
Knight
Seider

So that means 5 of those guys are not going in the top 10. And that doesn't into account the guys who are supposedly "just outside the top 10" according to various people.

 

[duhmetreE]

There's a number of moving parts and unknowns at this time, which isn't surprising considering that we are all of 15-23 months into this process.

There's this feeling inside me that we're trying to push moves that come at the 36-40 month mark now. And those extra months are vital to figuring out what the hell is really going on, beyond making guesses.

I see a lot of the same thought-process behind believing that the draft always drops right before we pick in the mindset that now is the time, and these are are the acquisitions. And even when people use examples like Hossa, there's almost this tendency to forget that moves tended to come in that 36-40 month mark that we now seem scared to hit.

There's this fear that we're missing out. Either a player doesn't come around very often, or we're going to develop a losing culture, or something along those lines.

So, next off-season, would you sign Panarin for 6 years?

 

[Edge]

Only 2 teams I see that really might interested in trading down like that in exchange for a roster player are Edmonton and Buffalo. Both are teams that are realizing they need to start winning sooner rather than later and a pick in the later part of the top 10 probably isn't someone who is going to help them immediately. Everyone else I think will definitely want their pick.

Kreider + 20th for 8th or 9th seems a little steep to pay though, perhaps depends on who might be there.

e: maybe Kreider +20 for the 8/9 spot and a second rounder or as mentioned a good young depth player?

I honestly think a team like Anaheim is a wildcard, and to a lesser extent Vancouver.

 

[Edge]

So, next off-season, would you sign Panarin for 6 years?

I'd potentially be more open to it, though it again depends on what actually occurs over those 12 months.

I'd have to see who steps up, who steps out, who's going in circles, etc.

 

[Hire Sather]

Seravalli from TSN is saying the Jets have engaged in talks with multiple teams for Trouba.

Report: Jets shopping Trouba

Apparently he's looking for over 8M. Insane. Lockout 2.0 here we come.

Trouba wants more than he's worth? Shocking

Look elsewhere.

 

[Edge]

This is true, but sometimes you actually are missing out. Sometimes players are available who don't come around often. Sometimes you need to support your young players with talent. We can debate if this is one of those times, but those times do come.

And sometimes you do. But I've typically found that when you make decisions with a very limited amount of information or results in front of you, be it in sports, business, your personal life, your risks tend to be higher. And those increased risks are not always offset by higher rewards.

You always have to ask yourself, are you attracted to the realities of the situation, or are you being seduced by what you want the realities to be?

 

[Hire Sather]

Stepan got us 7th overall and ADA. Why are we trading Kreider to move up 10 spots?

 

[Beacon]

Well said.

Their best chance at getting into the top 10 is to trade Kreider for a mid 1st and then try to overwhelm a team with a shallow system ahead of you with multiple picks including that mid 1st.

Honestly with the way that the mid-late teens of this draft is wide the **** open, there should be room to move into that range using 20+ other picks. I get wanting another pick in this draft but unless we're locking into Zegras, I'd rather trade Kreider for "now" help (not old now help.)

Our best chance to draft a top-6 center is to tank in 2019-20 because Lafreniere and Byfield are both projected to be star 1C, and if we don't get one of the top-2 picks, there are several smallish, but highly skilled centers: Rossi, Perfetti, Zary and Lundell. Lundell played for Team Finland in WJC U20 in his D-2 season and was a very effective player, and spent most of the year playing against adults in the Finnish top league. The others were all above PPG in the Juniors in their D-2 season. Since there are a bunch of D's and W's (and possibly a G) who may go in the top-10, definitely at least 1 of those 6 centers will be available to us so long as we don't go crazy on the UFA market. They have easily greater odds of becoming a 1C or at least a 2C than any of the guys we're looking at in the 8-12 range this year.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, I wouldn't do that personally. Mostly just questioning the idea that CK for a top 10 pick is a "pipe dream." We have plenty to add to balance out the scales for a deal like that if we wanted. If we were doing Kreider + 20 I'd want a top 10 pick and a good forward piece, a Lemieux-ish type. Someone young, unproven, but promising for a bottom or middle 6 role.

I think Kreider gets you outside the top 10. At that point you either go with a guy you like at at that spot, or you aim to move up from there.

And that depends on who the Rangers are targeting.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Our best chance to draft a top-6 center is to tank in 2019-20 because Lafreniere and Byfield are both projected to be star 1C, and if we don't get one of the top-2 picks, there are several smallish, but highly skilled centers: Rossi, Perfetti, Zary and Lundell. Lundell played for Team Finland in WJC U20 in his D-2 season and was a very effective player, and spent most of the year playing against adults in the Finnish top league. The others were all above PPG in the Juniors in their D-2 season. Since there are a bunch of D's and W's (and possibly a G) who may go in the top-10, definitely at least 1 of those 6 centers will be available to us so long as we don't go crazy on the UFA market. They have easily greater odds of becoming a 1C or at least a 2C than any of the guys we're looking at in the 8-12 range this year.

Lafreniere is a winger.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Stepan got us 7th overall and ADA. Why are we trading Kreider to move up 10 spots?

Stepan had term left on his contract. Kreider is a UFA after next year. Raanta was a part of that deal too.

I don't think anyone has suggested moving Kreider AND 20 to move "10" slots.

 

[GAGLine]

Stepan got us 7th overall and ADA. Why are we trading Kreider to move up 10 spots?

Stepan had just turned 27 and had 4 years left on his contract. Plus, he's a center who has put up better points than Kreider over his career.

Kreider is 28 and has 1 year left on his contract.

Edit: It's also a deeper draft than in 2017.

 

[NernieBichols]

TO those who were saying taking a short deal is foolish. That’s why they have insurance policies my friends.
And they have for this level And kind of stuff
Player may pay an extra couple million in insurance, but that’s nothing in comparison to the type of money you lose out on when you sign max deals and the cap raises to the point your losing on 3-10 million a year, depending on the sport

What do you think the nba cats are doing. Short term deals with insurance policies that would protect future earnings in case of injury.

 

[NernieBichols]

The thing with Trouba is that he's an upgrade but not that big of one imo. If we could do 1:1 Skjei for Trouba with some smallish sweetener, of course we should. But it'd take a real asset going the other way. If we're going to move multiple real assets for a d-man I'd want one that's a more noticeable upgrade. And you can pretty much count on Trouba to miss a big piece of every season - not such a huge deal when he's on a deep d, but if he's your best guy him missing time is almost certainly going to be an issue.

I honestly think that is the base of the trouba deal, it won’t be much more from a rangers standpoint and that skjei signed for another 4 years will have more value to Chevy than anything anyone else offers for him as a rental. The team that might give up a package to get him resigned would be Toronto, but I’m not sure if what Toronto would prefer to send out, that Winnipeg either needs or wants