Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

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31 Thoughts podcast. Elliotte Friedman believes Karlsson wants to play in TB. He will have to accept less than Hedman to make it work financially. Elliotte thinks Karlsson will have surgery for his groin injury. He says he hears mixed things on the Rangers and Karlsson. Some say yes. Some say no.

Judging by JD’s comments. No way.

No state income tax allows Karlsson to make it work in TB.

TB only has two D signed for big money next season. Hedman and McDonagh. Sergachev and Cernak. Last year of their ELC’s.
I am going to enjoy seeing the hoops TB has to jump through this offseason in order to ice a cap compliant team next year.
 
My point is that the problem with finding cap space isn't signing good players to expensive deals. It's wasting money on 4th liners/3rd pairing defenders who you can likely get on ELC's or very cheap veteran deals and then just like that you can easily afford to pay top guys. Don't pay the guys like Fast, Namestnikov, Vesey and the like and just like that you can easily afford good players even if it's a bit expensive.

names makes way too much but i still think he's a good veteran to have for this year and being russian doesn't hurt. but Fast makes $1.85 mil. the difference between him and a guy making the league minimum isn't going to make or break your cap...

cap problems come when you pay big $$ to guys that aren't your top players...I also agree with you that signing good players to expensive deals isn't an issue. the problem is when you sign a guy you think is good or used to be good and now you are stuck with the cap hit. for example there was no issue with rick nash's cap hit when he scored 42 goals...but then when he's got 28 points with the same cap hit it became an issue
 
I am going to enjoy seeing the hoops TB has to jump through this offseason in order to ice a cap compliant team next year.

Callahan to the Rangers where the Rangers get a couple of nice prospects or pieces would be a good start. My guess is they deal Miller and one of their other forwards.

If I was asking for a prospect, I'd take Volkov.
 
Callahan to the Rangers where the Rangers get a couple of nice prospects or pieces would be a good start. My guess is they deal Miller and one of their other forwards.

If I was asking for a prospect, I'd take Volkov.
I'll gladly help them out for a price. A high price. Good luck to them moving JT though, he had 47 points on one of the the best offensive teams in NHL history and didn't look good all year. I'm not sure how many teams will be lining up for that contract.
 
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My point is that the problem with finding cap space isn't signing good players to expensive deals. It's wasting money on 4th liners/3rd pairing defenders who you can likely get on ELC's or very cheap veteran deals and then just like that you can easily afford to pay top guys. Don't pay the guys like Fast, Namestnikov, Vesey and the like and just like that you can easily afford good players even if it's a bit expensive.

I understand your point, I just didn't get it in response to the specific Panarin debate.

I also don't think it's so simple. You can't have quality bottom lines without spending money. We saw this with our cup run. You need a mix of ELC, discount vets and stable, quality players, that get paid better.

Overpaying is one that's universal for all players. It doesn't matter whether like Panarin or Fast. Overpaying is overpaying.

Teams also need to do a better job of accounting for term implications. We clearly overpaid Names and Spooner. People complained. I didn't get it. Those were 2 year contracts. We knew would come off the books before the next window. They had next to no impact on the team.

I'm afraid of overpaying Panarin, EK, Kreider, etc. Those contracts CAN have implications down the line. We saw this numerous times recently. Gomez, Drury, Redden, Richards, Girardi. How much bandwidth was spent celebrating these signings? How much was spent thinking of ways to rid ourselves of their albatrosses.

Nothing is more crazy to me than those obsessed with buying out Smith, Staal or Shatty. Why would we do that? We have no cap problem. Sure, they're overpaid. But they are not an issue. If we buy them out, we prolong the impact. We can easily eat their contracts now.

Contracts don't exist in a vacuum. It's difficult to assess their specific implications. Nothing is apples to apples. But we do our best to determine what the eventual could be.
 
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31 Thoughts podcast. Elliotte Friedman believes Karlsson wants to play in TB. He will have to accept less than Hedman to make it work financially. Elliotte thinks Karlsson will have surgery for his groin injury. He says he hears mixed things on the Rangers and Karlsson. Some say yes. Some say no.

Judging by JD’s comments. No way.

No state income tax allows Karlsson to make it work in TB.

TB only has two D signed for big money next season. Hedman and McDonagh. Sergachev and Cernak. Last year of their ELC’s.

Now he's reliable. His credibility is back.
 
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names makes way too much but i still think he's a good veteran to have for this year and being russian doesn't hurt. but Fast makes $1.85 mil. the difference between him and a guy making the league minimum isn't going to make or break your cap...

cap problems come when you pay big $$ to guys that aren't your top players...I also agree with you that signing good players to expensive deals isn't an issue. the problem is when you sign a guy you think is good or used to be good and now you are stuck with the cap hit. for example there was no issue with rick nash's cap hit when he scored 42 goals...but then when he's got 28 points with the same cap hit it became an issue

He makes 1.85M now. That's fine. What do you think he's going to want/get on his next deal?
 
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31 Thoughts podcast. Elliotte Friedman believes Karlsson wants to play in TB. He will have to accept less than Hedman to make it work financially. Elliotte thinks Karlsson will have surgery for his groin injury. He says he hears mixed things on the Rangers and Karlsson. Some say yes. Some say no.

Judging by JD’s comments. No way.

No state income tax allows Karlsson to make it work in TB.

TB only has two D signed for big money next season. Hedman and McDonagh. Sergachev and Cernak. Last year of their ELC’s.

i hope he ends up in TB, better them then us. but no clue how TB is supposed to make that work even at a discount. They have 17 players signed and like $8.5 mil in cap space...they need to resign point who will get more than $8.5 mil then sign 4 other guys and then add EK.

i'm not sure they could fit him for the league minimum without moving out contracts....and callahan @ $5.8 mil is the only contract they have to unload, everyone else on the team is signed for eternity and would require a legit trade not a cap dump
 
There is no "Hank problem."

If he's dying to win, he requests a trade, we trade him.

If he doesn't, he stays. He's nowhere near what he was, so he's not going to steal tons of games and ruin a rebuild.

Yeah, I mean I get that JD has no history with Hank, but JD is also all class and I couldn't imagine him forcing Lundqvist out the door.
 
He makes 1.85M now. That's fine. What do you think he's going to want/get on his next deal?

well yeah when he looks for a raise and the difference becomes significant thats when you let him walk and replace him...

thats why you never stop drafting and developing players and why its so critical to fix the mess in hartford so the system is developing those players to replace him
 
I don't know if there are any suitors for the Vesey, Fast, Names right now, at the deadline I could see teams being somewhat interested when their cap hits are prorated and those teams are looking for a little extra for their run. Right now teams are going to be focused on the draft, then free agency, then their own RFAs, arbitration, adding a 3rd/4th line pending UFA with the contracts they carry is probably pretty far down the list.
 
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well yeah when he looks for a raise and the difference becomes significant thats when you let him walk and replace him...

thats why you never stop drafting and developing players and why its so critical to fix the mess in hartford so the system is developing those players to replace him

Which is exactly what I said the other day. The difference between signing Panarin at 9.5M and at 11M is basically the difference in having Fast or Nieves on your 4th line. Who cares?

In any case I also reject the idea that you need to spend money on a 4th line to have a good one in general. Let's look at the SCF teams

BOS: Nordstrom Kuraly Wagner (Wagner is hurt but he would be the guy if not) - 4M total.
STL: Barbashev/Sundqvist/Steen - Expensive because of Steen who wasn't there most of the year but it's two ELC's and a former top line player who dropped off. If they played Blais or Maroon or someone there it'd be about a 3M 4th line.
Last years final:

VGK- Carrier/Bellemare/Nosek ~3M total.
WSH - Stephenson/Beagle/DSP - 4M total.

Two years ago
PIT - Wilson/Cullen/Rowney - 2.5M total
NSH - McLeod/Fiddler/Watson - 3M

These bottom of the lineup guys just dont matter. You can spend 3M on them and be totally fine allocating the money to bring in/keep actual important ones. Or you can be the Islanders and pay 10M to your 4th line and have no offense.

So the decision on Panarin is really whether or not you think it makes sense for the team to bring in a key player at this point but to nitpick 1M-2M is just meaningless (Not saying to anyone on particular this is just in general). You can always save at the bottom of the lineup.
 
Not in cap %. Kessels contract was 12.44% of the cap when he signed in Toronto. Panarin is an all-around better player but I think his number will be around that.
And he got paid by Toronto to win cups in Pittsburgh. His cap hit in Toronto is completely irrelevant to the Penguins building their team. Very reasonable price when he got traded. Not a good contract for a rebuilding team that knew their window wasn't lining up with his productive years.

This is a very strange point to make in defense of Panarin. There is enough reasons to back Panarin, a team eating cap to trade away an expensive wing is a bizarre example.
 
Which is exactly what I said the other day. The difference between signing Panarin at 9.5M and at 11M is basically the difference in having Fast or Nieves on your 4th line. Who cares?

In any case I also reject the idea that you need to spend money on a 4th line to have a good one in general. Let's look at the SCF teams

BOS: Nordstrom Kuraly Wagner (Wagner is hurt but he would be the guy if not) - 4M total.
STL: Barbashev/Sundqvist/Steen - Expensive because of Steen but it's two ELC's and a former top line player who dropped off. If they played Blais or Maroon or someone there it'd be about a 3M 4th line.
Last years final:

VGK- Carrier/Bellemare/Nosek ~3M total.
WSH - Stephenson/Beagle/DSP - 4M total.

Two years ago
PIT - Wilson/Cullen/Rowney - 2.5M total
NSH - McLeod/Fiddler/Watson - 3M

These bottom of the lineup guys just dont matter. You can spend 3M on them and be totally fine allocating the money to bring in/keep actual important ones. Or you can be the Islanders and pay 10M to your 4th line and have no offense.

When we went, it was whatever 3 person combo of Dorsett, Carcillo, Boyle and Moore.
 
We don't need Karlsson at this point. We're not on the cusp of winning and I don't see him being a huge impact player down the line when we'd need him to be.

Tampa can get it done. They do have Cernak on the right side, but fitting in Karlsson won't be too bad. Foote will probably be on that team. They re-signed Rutta as insurance on someone like Foote. I'm pretty sure this is part of the reason they were unwilling to add him into the McDonagh deal.

Callahan getting moved would need to be move #1. Maybe Miller as well. A team missing on a FA they want could look at Miller. 8 team no trade list for him. There would be a lot of teams interested and he can't block them all. Johnson, Gourde, Killorn, and Palat have full NTC. A parting gift from Yzerman giving those guys full no trades. They control if they go.

If they sign Karlsson, the writing would be on the wall that Callahan and Miller are on the out, if they aren't already. They'd have no room, not to mention Vasilevskiy needs a new deal after this upcoming season.

They really need to get the Point contract done before 7/1. If he becomes eligible for offer sheets, someone might actually do it and I seriously doubt Tampa takes 4 1sts at this point. Maybe work a trade in those 7 days to match. Will Tampa be willing to give him the same money they gave Kucherov?

We should be in on Callahan. I wouldn't even ask to have salary retained. We can eat the cap hit. Ask for their #1 this year. Give them back their 2nd and get a prospect instead.
 
Which is another 4M line (which to be fair is slightly more expensive than it is today given a lower cap)

Yes. I definitely agree that you don't want to spend a lot of money on your 4th line. Or your 3rd pair for the matter. Right now, it's okay for us.. but in the long run, that's not how you want to structure your payroll.
 
Yes. I definitely agree that you don't want to spend a lot of money on your 4th line. Or your 3rd pair for the matter. Right now, it's okay for us.. but in the long run, that's not how you want to structure your payroll.

You can also always mitigate the negative effects L4/3rd pairing have, especially in the playoffs, by just reducing their ice time and distributing it to the top 2 lines/pairings.
 
Which is exactly what I said the other day. The difference between signing Panarin at 9.5M and at 11M is basically the difference in having Fast or Nieves on your 4th line. Who cares?

The issue with paying Panarin has little to do with 3rd or 4th lines. Focusing on that is arbitrary. The main issue is that he can block you from going after important pieces down the line.

Maybe, Panarin will play like a star for 7 years. I have a hard time believing that. The core we are building should be hitting its stride in 3-5 years. If Panarin declines, like most do after age 30, we will have a huge contract spot being eaten up by a player who is not living up to it. We know how that feels. We know what the consequences are.

When you overpay your top guys and they under-perform, you won't win. Simple as that.

You never had discussions about cup winners in recent years overpaying their top guys. They were always earning their keep. In the regular season and playoffs.
 
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San Jose is going to shuffle the deck. Probably no Thornton and they probably let Karlsson walk. There is cap space.

Jones finally got hot but he need a gift in each round to advance. The sharks have to be concerned when Pavelski, burns and Couture have only so many runs left together. Your goalie at least has to keep you in it, not undermine the effort.

The combination of need, willingness to go for it, the trend towards tandems, the bay area... I see a fit for Lundqvist in SJ. Maybe it's an in season move with the cap hit defeated. It will be a process if it actually happens.
 
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