Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIII

[Beacon]

I will add this: as scouting improves, it is getting progressively MORE difficult to draft a star late. There are 16-17 players per draft who play 750+ career games (=10+ years). That number also will go down because the salary cap forces GMs to choose kids over vets. That number includes many role players like our own Sundstrom, Malhotra and Dominic Moore. You're really talking about roughly 12-14 long term top-6F or top-4D per draft.

If GMs don't make a ton of brutal mistakes, how many of these guys are going to be left after the top-15 lottery picks? A few unpredictable late bloomers?

 

[Tawnos]

Some people hear the word patience as meaning "not acquiring non-prospect/pick players until we know for sure what we have" and "let the process unfold of its own accord"

Others hear the word patience as meaning "we aren't going to put our prospects into positions they aren't yet ready to handle" and "we aren't going to make moves designed to put us into the playoffs right away"

One version of patience is caution and the other version of patience is prudence. And they aren't mutually exclusive by any means.

 

[RangerBoy]

The rebuild started with the Stepan trade.

They took the Stepan money and signed Shattenkirk. How has that signing worked out for the Rangers? Brooks reported Gorton tried to trade Shattenkirk a few months ago and teams offered their bad contracts in return. See that's the whole problem with the rebuild and retool idea at the same time.

Gorton made his job more difficult with the Shattenkirk and Smith signings.

The Rangers also tried to sign Thornton that summer before signing Shattenkirk. A rebuilding team shouldn't be signing a 38 year old player.

The rebuild started in February 2018.

 

[Tawnos]

Once again, for the purposes of talking about the future of this team, the first draft of the rebuild is the 2016 draft. That is 3 years ago. We're about to execute the 4th draft of the rebuild.

I don't care when the first transaction of the rebuild was made. All I care about is how old our players are.

 

[bobbop]

I will add this: as scouting improves, it is getting progressively MORE difficult to draft a star late. There are 16-17 players per draft who play 750+ career games (=10+ years). That number also will go down because the salary cap forces GMs to choose kids over vets. That number includes many role players like our own Sundstrom, Malhotra and Dominic Moore. You're really talking about roughly 12-14 long term top-6F or top-4D per draft.

If GMs don't make a ton of brutal mistakes, how many of these guys are going to be left after the top-15 lottery picks? A few unpredictable late bloomers?

Actually I feel just the opposite. The world is a big place. There are players hiding everywhere waiting to be found. Good players to be found later in the draft, especially in Europe.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Once again, for the purposes of talking about the future of this team, the first draft of the rebuild is the 2016 draft. That is 3 years ago. We're about to execute the 4th draft of the rebuild.

I don't care when the first transaction of the rebuild was made. All I care about is how old our players are.

Shesterkin was drafted in 2014. That means the rebuild started in 2014.

 

[Off Sides]

They took the Stepan money and signed Shattenkirk. How has that signing worked out for the Rangers? Brooks reported Gorton tried to trade Shattenkirk a few months ago and teams offered their bad contracts in return. See that's the whole problem with the rebuild and retool idea at the same time.

Gorton made his job more difficult with the Shattenkirk and Smith signings.

The Rangers also tried to sign Thornton that summer before signing Shattenkirk. A rebuilding team shouldn't be signing a 38 year old player.

The rebuild started in February 2018.

My guess

They traded Stepan because they did not like his pending clause. The Yotes only made that deal because they did not like the 2017 draft after the first couple picks and if they could get a good player with term they were happy.

The Brassard trade does not happen if Ottawa was not trying to save money.

Lundqvist, Staal had 4 years of term left, they matched the Smith and Shattenkirk term to them. That was their retool attempt. They had their sights set on making the playoffs for the anything can happen factor. Yet if it failed those contracts still represented the end point of that retool.

That said, I think they were lucky the retool failed as quickly as it did, for not we are still seeing them can kick with AV at the helm. Since it did fail quickly they were able to sell instead of self rent or rent more on top. The rebuild is not where it is today without the retool failing when it did.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Here's an interesting idea for a trade:

Neal Pionk to Vegas for Colin Miller.

Vegas needs to shed salary. Pionk is a surplus with Shattenkirk, DeAngelo and now Fox in the fold. Miller brings a more steady two way presence. Would match up well with this team.

 

[RangerBoy]

The Athletic's Winnipeg beat writer wrote about Trouba and 7 likely interested teams.

New York Rangers — courtesy of Rick Carpiniello
The Rangers know very well that their defence is broken. But they also have a lot of prospects coming, including Adam Fox, whom they just signed, and Libor Hajek, the big piece of the Ryan McDonagh trade, and more to come later (last year’s two first-rounders, K’Andre Miller and Nils Lundkvist). But they also need to add top-line forwards, and I think that’s where their cap space is ticketed in terms of free agents.
I get the sense they’d be very interested in Trouba and could surely use him, but the cost could be prohibitive. If they fail on their forward targets (Artemi Panarin, and possibly an offer sheet), then a move to get Trouba would be more likely. I don’t think they’ll be in on P.K. Subban or Karlsson, for example.

Ates: If New York does make a case for Trouba, all of K’Andre Miller, Adam Fox, Libor Hajek, and Nils Lundkvist are compelling prospects on D — likely in that order. The problem for the Jets is that New York traded up to get Miller at the 2018 draft, traded futures for the rights to Fox and traded Ryan McDonagh for Hajek. The Rangers are heavily invested in the men Winnipeg will want.

Carp likes throwing stuff out there. He wrote about the offer sheet last week. He responded in the Q&A section. He brings up the offer sheet as a possibility but then adds he will believe it when he sees it. He adds Point is a better player than anyone the Rangers could get at the top of the draft. Using that strategy, every team should use the offer sheet option because the player acquiring via offer sheet is better than the draft picks.

Point will require the Rangers to give 4 first round picks. TB is matching anything below that threshold. JD is preaching process and patience. Giving up 4 first rounders.



Trust The Process

The Trouba cost will be prohibitive. The Rangers level of interest shouldn't be linked to what they don't do with another player.

 

[GAGLine]

Once again, for the purposes of talking about the future of this team, the first draft of the rebuild is the 2016 draft. That is 3 years ago. We're about to execute the 4th draft of the rebuild.

I don't care when the first transaction of the rebuild was made. All I care about is how old our players are.

A draft in which we had no 1st or 2nd round picks was the beginning of the rebuild? Okay.

 

[Tawnos]

A draft in which we had no 1st or 2nd round picks was the beginning of the rebuild? Okay.

We have 5 quality prospects from that draft. I didn't say that the Rangers drafted them.

 

[Edge]

I guess I don't view the signing of Panarin as the beginning of a slippery slope towards blowing up the rebuild.

I think if Gorton has shown that he's anything, it's that he's an opportunist. He went after and signed Hayes and Vesey because there was the opportunity to do so. He traded Brassard for Z because the opportunity arose. The Stepan trade, the Fox trade, etc. Now there's a potential elite free agent who has at least some desire to come to NY. Seizing that opportunity doesn't mean that every move from that point on is solely going to be "win now" focused.

I think it gets more difficult because Panarin comes in with all kinds of expectations and a price tag to match. Hayes and Vesey were free agent college kids, Zibanejad was a 23 year old, 50 point center the Rangers hoped could fulfill his potential. The Stepan trade, the Fox trade, none of them brought back a guy who was seen as a "never becomes available" type like Panarin is being billed as by those who tend to support his signing.

Additionally, Panarin's salary will probably double any other forward on this team (should they move Kreider), and that kind of money I feel does change things. It's one thing to have a desire to want to maximize Zibanejad, who is already in the fold, and take advantage of his great $5 million salary. It's another to actively go out, recruit a guy, pay him $9, $10, or even $11 million dollars annually, and not have dictate how you approach things. I just think that eventually becomes an issue and it really shouldn't be until we are at a point where those kinds of issues make sense.

And I feel like it's coming from two fronts right now --- there's the push for Panarin and the push for Trouba. You put those two elements together and suddenly that slope becomes a bit more slippery. I just...am not crazy about where that path leads right now.

 

[Ola]

Toronto had cap space and extra assets to go for it the last two years. They didn't and now they are hard against the cap. They missed a huge opportunity in the 17-18 season. They will never be able to do that again with 4 players taking up almost half the cap. Even getting mcdonagh at 4.5 for two playoff runs would have been a really smart move for them. The reason they never made the next step wasnt because Matthew's marner etc werent ready it was because they didn't want to trade the kapanens and Johnson's to get the help they needed. The window was there they just never took advantage of it.
Chicago won their cups before the big pay days arrived. I don't think we are going to see bridge deals for star players anymore. Kravtsov and Kappo if they get to where they should will be signing long term deals after their entry deals much like Nylander Matthews Draisaitl eichel etc. Cap hell starts much earlier these days.

Yeah, even if you might have little to win by locking up the the absolute top guys long term as long as you are confident that you are an attractive location.

 

[Tawnos]

Shesterkin was drafted in 2014. That means the rebuild started in 2014.

He's one prospect and he's a goalie. There are 5 quality skater prospects from the 2016 draft. It absolutely marks the beginning of the rebuild from a personnel perspective... aka the only perspective that truly matters.

 

[Off Sides]

A draft in which we had no 1st or 2nd round picks was the beginning of the rebuild? Okay.

I agree with @Tawnos in one sense, not that the rebuild started there, more the rebuild incorporates Howden, Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov, Fox from the 2016 draft.

If one wants to look at them acquiring prospects who were drafted in 2016 as big part of the rebuild, I think that is fair, saying that was the start of the rebuild I don't see that, as why not just use Zbad's draft year or Kreider's for that matter if he stays?

 

[Ola]

For those who are in favor Panarin, which forwards — if any — are you assuming that Gorton can move?

I think it will be hard for Gorts to get good value for Kreider or move any of Names, Vesey, Strome and the likes. And if we can’t move them, it’s starting to get pretty crowded.

 

[Edge]

A draft in which we had no 1st or 2nd round picks was the beginning of the rebuild? Okay.

I also tend to think that this is an important stage where we need to add those elite higher end talents.

I think when 2016 has a chance to give us some nice depth.

2017 has a chance to give us a couple of core pieces.

But 2018, 2019 and arguably 2020 is our chance to swing for that elite, cost-controlled talent. We've got Kravtsov, we've got Miller, we'll have Kakko. But what does that look like with maybe another elite talent from 2019? What does that look like with a top talent in 2020?

For me, this time next year is when I really think that first chapter, "accumulation", comes to an end.

We have some great talent depth, but 2019 and 2020 present really good chances to try and accumulate that elite young talent that has so often alluded us.

It's also why I am more open to Trouba than I am Panarin. Not that I don't have concerns, and I'm not as crazy to trade for him at present time. But as a free agent a year from now? Yeah, if nothing else I feel like the timing is better, if not very good.

 

[Alluckks]

I'm not sure I fully agree with that.

I think they hedged their bets a little bit, but I see a team that wasn't operating under the same mindset just 8 months later.

While we remember Andersson and Chytil, we also didn't pick again until the 4th round and then went out and signed Shattenkirk.

I think Gorton started to have his doubts around that time, talking about the dreaded middle and whatnot, but this wasn't a team that was beating on every bush to see what was available, or actively shopping their players. Frankly, should that team not take a nose dive the way they did, I don't think 2017 would be on our radar much at all as a starting point.

Just because the team didn't declare they were rebuild doesn't negate the fact that it was a rebuild-esque move. Regardless of what their intention was at the time the move in hindsight is clearly within time frame to be relevant and clearly was a move that would be considered part of a rebuild in a vacuum. Parsing it out just because of other moves (or lack thereof) around it not necessarily jiving with your rebuild criteria is just semantics.

 

[Crease]

2016-17 was the first year there was talk in the stands about maybe selling at the deadline (or at least standing pat). They got abused by the Penguins in the first round the prior year and it was obvious the core was past its prime.

Smith was sold as a "one last kick of the can" move. They wanted to replace Klein, who was banged up and retiring to Portland to start an edible soap business or whatever. Plain bad pro scouting. Red Wings fans knew the Red Wings won that trade the moment it happened.

Then after winning a series, they wanted "another one last kick of the can" and signed Shattenkirk. God that was stupid too.

 

[Beacon]

Actually I feel just the opposite. The world is a big place. There are players hiding everywhere waiting to be found. Good players to be found later in the draft, especially in Europe.

There's a limited number of NHL spots. Players get judged on a curve. If we find more players, the guy who would've been #80F (=first liner) may be #110F (=second liner right now). There is not suddenly going to be more than 93 first line spots or over 372 top-12F spots.

But players normally did get discovered by someone somewhere. Usually, at least 1 team discovered you and could pluck you in round 3 or 7. Now everyone knows about you, so you're probably going very early if you have star potential.

 

[Tawnos]

I agree with @Tawnos in one sense, not that the rebuild started there, more the rebuild incorporates Howden, Hajek, Lindgren, Rykov, Fox from the 2016 draft.

If one wants to look at them acquiring prospects who were drafted in 2016 as big part of the rebuild, I think that is fair, saying that was the start of the rebuild I don't see that, as why not just use Zbad's draft year or Kreider's for that matter if he stays?

Because neither of those players were brought in for the express purpose of attempting to rebuild the organization.

That being said, if you want to say it that way... the rebuild incorporates the 2016 draft, that's fine. It's a semantics difference. However, the important part of the rebuild is the players. I just think there's no tangible weight to the concept of the "rebuild's start" that is about anything but where the players come from.

 

[Alluckks]

The United States technically entered the war after Pearl Harbor, however they were clearly preparing for war and building up a substantial number of war related inventory well prior to that date

Arguing that the Stepan trade was not a contribution towards the rebuild is just digging your feet in the ground because you want to argue about something dumb

 

[DanielBrassard]

For those who are in favor Panarin, which forwards — if any — are you assuming that Gorton can move?

I think it will be hard for Gorts to get good value for Kreider or move any of Names, Vesey, Strome and the likes. And if we can’t move them, it’s starting to get pretty crowded.

Vesey should be easy to move with his cap hit

 

[I Eat Crow]

The Rangers shouldn't trade a good to great prospect for Trouba when its possible he can be had for free next summer.

Huge pass if the cost is Miller, Hajek, or Lundkvist.

 

[Tawnos]

The Rangers shouldn't trade a good to great prospect for Trouba when its possible he can be had for free next summer.

Huge pass if the cost is Miller, Hajek, or Lundkvist.

Agreed. The only way I'm on board with Trouba is if the cost is veteran players... which is a possibility given where Winnipeg is. Have no interest in moving prospects... really anywhere at this point.