Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLI

[Avery16]

I don't believe ANYONE is stating they would sign Strome to any contract over giving ADA what he deserves to get in order to stay long-term. If they are please quote them.

Yeah, I know. Everyone for signing Strome to a multiyear says it won't come to that. I guess I should just trust all the GMs on this thread to have the math right.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

So this is where I get lost.

Strome in his first season with the Rangers, when extrapolated out over 82 games, was on pace for 43 points. Not earth shattering but not bad. That was mainly in a depth role while playing both center and wing.

Strome this year had 59 points in 70 games which extrapolated out is 69 points. That's playing prime minutes at both ES and PP and center most of the season.

That's very close to 2 full seasons of time in NY with an average point total, per 82 games, of 57 points. I' sure that's inflated by playing with Panarin this season but if he was re-signed, that is more than likely something that will remain.

I don't think Strome scoring at a 45-50 point pace over 82 games is that far-fetched.

Now if we look around the league at players recently signed as UFA's in that point range you see guys like Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, Matt Duchene, Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Chris Kreider, etc. When you start looking around the league at what some of these players are signing for, $5m for a guy like Strome isn't bad value.

The numbers can be extrapolated a bunch of different ways, but I'm not comfortable handing out a sizeable contract to him.

Elite players can produce with pretty much anyone. I'd much rather get value by not paying Strome a bunch of money and have more financial flexibility than pay him, have it be a potential strain financially, and essentially have to staple him to our best player to produce.

And most of the player contracts you mentioned aren't good deals. Plus 5 million a year is probably a little light. I think his deal will be closer to 6 million

 

[SA16]

So this is where I get lost.

Strome in his first season with the Rangers, when extrapolated out over 82 games, was on pace for 43 points. Not earth shattering but not bad. That was mainly in a depth role while playing both center and wing.

Strome this year had 59 points in 70 games which extrapolated out is 69 points. That's playing prime minutes at both ES and PP and center most of the season.

That's very close to 2 full seasons of time in NY with an average point total, per 82 games, of 57 points. I' sure that's inflated by playing with Panarin this season but if he was re-signed, that is more than likely something that will remain.

I don't think Strome scoring at a 45-50 point pace over 82 games is that far-fetched.

Now if we look around the league at players recently signed as UFA's in that point range you see guys like Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, Matt Duchene, Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Chris Kreider, etc. When you start looking around the league at what some of these players are signing for, $5m for a guy like Strome isn't bad value.

The problem is of course that extrapolating without context makes no sense. If you are extrapolating Strome's point totals last year that means you are assuming he will continue to shoot 22.5%. This of course is unreasonable. This is also why the whole "pace" thing always discussed is always done wrong. If you want to know a players true pace you need to take current numbers+projected numbers not current numbers/games played * 82. This is obviously easier in baseball where projections are good. If a player has 10 HR in the first 20 games and is projected by models to hit another 15 HR his "pace" is for 25 HR not for 41 HR. One is an actual reasonable projection based on what has happened and what is expected to happen. The other is flawed mathematics.

Then with this year to the future you have Strome+Panarin combining for a higher on ice sh% than any relatively full season of Crosby, Ovechkin, Kucherov, McDavid, and one season of Malkin. So to expect that to continue your assumption is basically that they are the best combination in 15 years. That is a bit of a ridiculous expectation. Additionally he likely will not be getting PP1 time throughout the contract since a spot will have to open for Kakko (provided he works out) and his spot is the only available one. Then you have to consider that he scored a bunch of EN points which may be sustainable if he keeps the role but he's also not exactly the guy you want on the ice in those spots since he's bad defensively.

Then you also have to consider if he eventually gets surpassed by Chytil (or we bring in someone better), which could happen as soon as this year or next, you now have a somewhat pricy somewhat long term deal for a 3C, PP2 player, who isn't good defensively, whose only big year came with an MVP candidate when he got 20 mins/game. How will that contract look in a 14 min 3C role (essentially Chytil's role this year).?

And every player you mentioned had much more than one year of good offense in the last five and.or contribute in more than one way. I would compare Ryan Strome to P.A. Parenteau much more than any of those guys. I would give him a one year deal and trade him at the deadline.

 

[Avery16]

Why? He hasn't proven he can be as good as Zubov on a consistent basis.

I guess because Staal is his linemate and not Panarin.

 

[bobbop]

The question with Strome is not has he had a good year this year; he has had a very good year. The question is if this is a career year and what happens next. His track record gives pause that this season may be an outlier. I’m guessing either a one year prove it contract or a three year some security, some risk contract. Three makes sense to me because if he shits in the bed next year, you can always expose him in the expansion draft.

 

[GAGLine]

The question with Strome is not has he had a good year this year; he has had a very good year. The question is if this is a career year and what happens next. His track record gives pause that this season may be an outlier. I’m guessing either a one year prove it contract or a three year some security, some risk contract. Three makes sense to me because if he shits in the bed next year, you can always expose him in the expansion draft.

That's why I like the 2 year option. We can still expose him, and it's less risk.

 

[Raspewtin]

the thing I don't understand with the "Strome made Panarin better" meme is that this logic never seems to include Tony DeAngelo's career year or Adam Fox's outstanding rookie campaign which, imo, had significantly more impact than Ryan Strome did. Panarin - literally anyone else - Fox or TDA was as a unit unstoppable.

 

[Avery16]

The question with Strome is not has he had a good year this year; he has had a very good year. The question is if this is a career year and what happens next. His track record gives pause that this season may be an outlier. I’m guessing either a one year prove it contract or a three year some security, some risk contract. Three makes sense to me because if he shits in the bed next year, you can always expose him in the expansion draft.

If he shits the bed, Seattle won't claim him. We have a number of qualifying forwards already who will be exposed and have a lot more value. Not disagreeing with the first part of your post, but the ED is not a good reason for tacking on an extra year to any Strome deal.

 

[bobbop]

That's why I like the 2 year option. We can still expose him, and it's less risk.

I don’t think he would sign a two year contract. I wouldn’t.

 

[Avery16]

I don’t think he would sign a two year contract. I wouldn’t.

He's an RFA. Besides the arb rights, which more affects the $ amount and not the term, he doesn't have a lot of say in the matter

 

[True Blue]

This is the first time he put up 50 points since he had a rocket runner up on his team. He’s a leach not a spark plug

Without the benefit of Panarin, last year since the trade with the Rangers he was a .52 points per game player. Which, if continued, would make him a 43 point player. So there's that. If without Panarin, he is a mid-40ish point player, not really sure how he is a leach. In fact I am not really sure what that even implies. Are you saying that he is somehow costing Panarin points? Because Panarin was on pace to demolish his own records.

Most of us who have been pro resigning him have maintained that he seems to be a 40-50 point player, who morphs into a 70 point player when paired with one of the elite players in the league. Having such a player who has instant chemistry with your top players makes him a "leach"?

 

[bobbop]

He's an RFA. Besides the arb rights, which more affects the $ amount and not the term, he doesn't have a lot of say in the matter

He isn’t eligible for a two year arb award if he is a year from UFA. Why would he voluntarily sign for two years? He could have another great year and get a huge UFA contract.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah, I know. Everyone for signing Strome to a multiyear says it won't come to that. I guess I should just trust all the GMs on this thread to have the math right.

Clearly someone has to be moved. But why do you insist that it is DeAngelo?

I think that it is Buchnevich

 

[SA16]

Without the benefit of Panarin, last year since the trade with the Rangers he was a .52 points per game player. Which, if continued, would make him a 43 point player. So there's that. If without Panarin, he is a mid-40ish point player, not really sure how he is a leach. In fact I am not really sure what that even implies. Are you saying that he is somehow costing Panarin points? Because Panarin was on pace to demolish his own records.

Most of us who have been pro resigning him have maintained that he seems to be a 40-50 point player, who morphs into a 70 point player when paired with one of the elite players in the league. Having such a player who has instant chemistry with your top players makes him a "leach"?

Let us consult one of my favorite articles of all time to see how likely Stromes season last season was to continue:

William Karlsson's Shooting Percentage Is Unsustainable... Or Is It? - SinBin.vegas

14.6% since this article was written. 25% before. Weird since they told me it would continue since he gets into such great spots.

 

[True Blue]

Let us consult one of my favorite articles of all time to see how likely Stromes season last season was to continue:

Let us us consult the part that simply looking at statistics with blinders on, may lead to misleading conclusions. Shooting percentage can be influenced by a number of items. Are you playing with better players? Are you getting more PP time? Are you getting more time in general? Are you shooting from more advantageous positions?

Let us also not forget that he was pacing for 48 assists this year? I know, I know. Anyone can do it. After all, all anyone needs to do is simply fling the puck to Panarin's side of the ice and he will put it into the net.

 

[Irishguy42]

After all, all anyone needs to do is simply fling the puck to Panarin's side of the ice and he will put it into the net.

This, but unironically.

 

[SA16]

Let us us consult the part that simply looking at statistics with blinders on, may lead to misleading conclusions. Shooting percentage can be influenced by a number of items. Are you playing with better players? Are you getting more PP time? Are you getting more time in general? Are you shooting from more advantageous positions?

Let us also not forget that he was pacing for 48 assists this year? I know, I know. Anyone can do it. After all, all anyone needs to do is simply fling the puck to Panarin's side of the ice and he will put it into the net.

Odd that you’re commenting about “looking at statistics with blinders on” to a post linking an article that shows a screen shot of every goal scored by the player discussed in the article up to that point of the season.

I believe that’s what’s known around here as “watching the games.”

 

[GAGLine]

Strome had 18 goals in 63 games last year, 18 goals in 70 games this year. Prorated to 82 games, that's a difference of about 2.3 goals.

I don't think anyone believed he would sustain a 22.5% shooting percentage, but he raised his shots per game from 1.27 to 2.2.

The end result is basically the same, except he increased his assist total significantly.

 

[GAGLine]

I don’t think he would sign a two year contract. I wouldn’t.

He's an RFA. Besides the arb rights, which more affects the $ amount and not the term, he doesn't have a lot of say in the matter

I'm not sure Strome would say no to it, if the AAV is reasonable. He's 26 and could set himself up for a significant payday at age 28.

His only recourse if Gorton doesn't offer more than 2 years is to go to arbitration and take a 1 year deal. I suppose he could ask for a trade, but that seems unlikely. He has to know that he has a good opportunity here playing with Panarin. It's his best chance at getting a bigger payday down the road.

 

[GAGLine]

He isn’t eligible for a two year arb award if he is a year from UFA. Why would he voluntarily sign for two years? He could have another great year and get a huge UFA contract.

He could, so why would he choose to sign for 3 years instead of 2? A 2 year deal gets him to UFA status that much sooner.

 

[Irishguy42]

Strome had 18 goals in 63 games last year, 18 goals in 70 games this year. Prorated to 82 games, that's a difference of about 2.3 goals.

I don't think anyone believed he would sustain a 22.5% shooting percentage, but he raised his shots per game from 1.27 to 2.2.

The end result is basically the same, except he increased his assist total significantly.

Pretty sure all of this has more to do with his 4:01 increased ATOI this year compared to last year than anything he personally did. Also playing with an elite NHLer who could probably set up a wet paper bag to get a good shot on goal doesn't hurt.

 

[Avery16]

He isn’t eligible for a two year arb award if he is a year from UFA. Why would he voluntarily sign for two years? He could have another great year and get a huge UFA contract.

I’m just saying his arbitration rights won’t greatly impact our ability to sign him to a 2-year. He has more leverage on $ amount, but as an RFA he doesn’t get to decide how many years we offer.

 

[Avery16]

Clearly someone has to be moved. But why do you insist that it is DeAngelo?

I think that it is Buchnevich

I’m insisting nothing. I said “if”.

 

[Avery16]

This, but unironically.

Unsarcastically, but pretty much yes.

 

[NYR Viper]

Yeah, I know. Everyone for signing Strome to a multiyear says it won't come to that. I guess I should just trust all the GMs on this thread to have the math right.

I guess we could live in fear of not having enough cap space and trade everyone this offseason? That way we are sure we never have to deal with that problem ever again