Matt4776
Registered User
- May 8, 2009
- 2,896
- 690
WARNING: PLANNING TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE FOR FUN ALERT
I'm going to echo someone else (I forget who I apologize) in this thread. I think this is going to be an accelerated rebuild- and I think Gorton is going to do it by making a splash in the 2019 UFA class to grab a d-man a la Chara in 2005. I also don't think we need to trade away Spooner or Namestnikov unless the salary cap forces us to and/or prospects force their way into the lineup at their expense. They are young RFAs. They will still have value if we need to trade them 1-4 years from now.
I'd like to trade into the top-3 (assuming we aren't graced by the lottery gods) to take Zadina/Svechnikov. We have the extra picks (and players like Zuccarello) to make it happen. I have a preference for Zadina, but whatever.
I messed with CapFriendly, and came up with this roster for 2019-20 assuming an 84M cap in 2019-20. Impossible to predict two years in advance, but I saw 82M for next year, so I thought 84M was a safe estimate. Perhaps it is a little lower or a little higher.
Who knows who the fourth line LW could be. Could be a Rangers reclamation project a la Pouliot, Grabner.etc, maybe a guy like Ronning surprises, maybe Boo sticks around... who knows. I put Beleskey as a placeholder since he has a high cap hit. Assuming he's buried in the minors, the cap hit of his replacement will be negated by the savings of Beleskey being in the minors. I used Gropp as a placeholder for an extra forward.
I'm not saying this is a top forward group in the league year one, and it will likely struggle given their age (mostly the line I listed as the second line), but that forward group is at least competitive in every game. And none of them are going to be making BIG money. Perhaps I gave Buch too much in what will likely be a bridge deal (since we get a TON of money off the books in 2021), but I wanted to be on the side of giving too much for realism's sake.
I think our goalie situation will still be very solid by then with Hank and Shesty/Georgiev backing him up.
Defense is going to be more of a struggle. We will undoubtedly keep Staal (and rightfully so) until (if) some of our many LD prospects kick him out a la Rozsival. I also think we'll only see one of Pionk or ADA on this team long term. I hope one convincingly takes a step forward. I used Day as a placeholder for a 7th dman.
We have no top pairing RD in the system. Gorton might have a chance to get a 29 year old Drew Doughty or Erik Karlsson. I picked Karlsson since he will be the most expensive. Girardi's cap hit drops to 1.1M in 2020. Staal, Smith, Shattenkirk, and yes, even Hank come off the books in 2021. There will likely be a lockout following the CBA expiration, likely with more compliance buyouts. If I recall, the last lockout gave you up to two years to execute the buyout. If Doughty/Karlsson struggle tremendously or look to be dropping off (would be fourish years into their contract at this point), a compliance buyout could be used.
All of this is also assuming we can't find someone to take Smith with some money retained. The cap will also likely continue to increase as the years go on.
I spent way too long on this, and obviously it's not going to happen as things happen, players bust (though Chytil and Andersson are showing great results against men which is promising), players are traded.etc, but I think it is a fairly realistic possible roadmap going forward that has us competitive again the year after next, with (in my opinion) true Cup aspirations beginning the years that follow.
EDIT: Forgot to mention there is obvious flexibility in trading Hayes/Namestnikov/Spooner for futures/cheaper players if the cap gets too tight and/or prospects are knocking at the door.
I'm going to echo someone else (I forget who I apologize) in this thread. I think this is going to be an accelerated rebuild- and I think Gorton is going to do it by making a splash in the 2019 UFA class to grab a d-man a la Chara in 2005. I also don't think we need to trade away Spooner or Namestnikov unless the salary cap forces us to and/or prospects force their way into the lineup at their expense. They are young RFAs. They will still have value if we need to trade them 1-4 years from now.
I'd like to trade into the top-3 (assuming we aren't graced by the lottery gods) to take Zadina/Svechnikov. We have the extra picks (and players like Zuccarello) to make it happen. I have a preference for Zadina, but whatever.
I messed with CapFriendly, and came up with this roster for 2019-20 assuming an 84M cap in 2019-20. Impossible to predict two years in advance, but I saw 82M for next year, so I thought 84M was a safe estimate. Perhaps it is a little lower or a little higher.
Who knows who the fourth line LW could be. Could be a Rangers reclamation project a la Pouliot, Grabner.etc, maybe a guy like Ronning surprises, maybe Boo sticks around... who knows. I put Beleskey as a placeholder since he has a high cap hit. Assuming he's buried in the minors, the cap hit of his replacement will be negated by the savings of Beleskey being in the minors. I used Gropp as a placeholder for an extra forward.
I'm not saying this is a top forward group in the league year one, and it will likely struggle given their age (mostly the line I listed as the second line), but that forward group is at least competitive in every game. And none of them are going to be making BIG money. Perhaps I gave Buch too much in what will likely be a bridge deal (since we get a TON of money off the books in 2021), but I wanted to be on the side of giving too much for realism's sake.
I think our goalie situation will still be very solid by then with Hank and Shesty/Georgiev backing him up.
Defense is going to be more of a struggle. We will undoubtedly keep Staal (and rightfully so) until (if) some of our many LD prospects kick him out a la Rozsival. I also think we'll only see one of Pionk or ADA on this team long term. I hope one convincingly takes a step forward. I used Day as a placeholder for a 7th dman.
We have no top pairing RD in the system. Gorton might have a chance to get a 29 year old Drew Doughty or Erik Karlsson. I picked Karlsson since he will be the most expensive. Girardi's cap hit drops to 1.1M in 2020. Staal, Smith, Shattenkirk, and yes, even Hank come off the books in 2021. There will likely be a lockout following the CBA expiration, likely with more compliance buyouts. If I recall, the last lockout gave you up to two years to execute the buyout. If Doughty/Karlsson struggle tremendously or look to be dropping off (would be fourish years into their contract at this point), a compliance buyout could be used.
All of this is also assuming we can't find someone to take Smith with some money retained. The cap will also likely continue to increase as the years go on.
I spent way too long on this, and obviously it's not going to happen as things happen, players bust (though Chytil and Andersson are showing great results against men which is promising), players are traded.etc, but I think it is a fairly realistic possible roadmap going forward that has us competitive again the year after next, with (in my opinion) true Cup aspirations beginning the years that follow.
EDIT: Forgot to mention there is obvious flexibility in trading Hayes/Namestnikov/Spooner for futures/cheaper players if the cap gets too tight and/or prospects are knocking at the door.
Last edited:
