What it will take: A number with a lot of zeroes after it. There's chatter around the league that the magic number to sign Tavares on July 1 is $88 million, which comes out to roughly $12.6-million per on a seven-year deal. Expand that out a year for the Islanders and you've got a nice, round $100 million or so.
That's the starting point, of course. If Tavares gives the Islanders an indication he wants to stay, then that number may change, depending on where the Isles sit after making any draft-table deals. But it won't change much, especially for the Islanders, since they have already ceded leverage to their star in this negotiation.
Who's in the hunt: Who isn't? Probably the Rangers, for starters — despite the juicy thoughts of Ranger fans, there doesn't appear to be much interest from the team and even less from Tavares' side. He may leave, but he's not looking to dunk on the Islander fans who supported him for nearly a decade.
If (most likely when) Tavares gets to the five-day window between the NHL Draft and July 1 when he can speak to suitors, there will certainly be teams that are hungry for his attention: Think the Red Wings, Canucks, Canadiens, Senators, Panthers, Blues, Coyotes, Hurricanes and Sabres.
Sitting here now, two-plus months from the sweepstakes, there are a couple teams that stand out: The Sharks, who have the cap space and the winning pedigree to appeal to Tavares; and the Golden Knights, whose surprising first season keeps getting more and more interesting. Vegas, which made a serious trade deadline pitch for Erik Karlsson, could use a star to cement itself as something other than a one-hit wonder.
There's also the remote sign-and-trade possibility, which opens up avenues to teams that might not have had a shot without a deal in place and a trade to be made. That might rope in the Lightning, who have little cap space but plenty of good, young players the Islanders would love. And hey, maybe someone could convince Evgeni Malkin to waive his no-move and swap places with Tavares? Why not think big!