Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIII

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

I have no idea why people think adding Panarin is going to complicate the rebuild. There's nothing complicated about it


And using Steve Simmons of all people is even worse

Guy is a ****ing joke and laughing stock

I don't think this board gives enough credit to how much this roster sucks, and how its going to suck more by the trade deadline. The Rangers are literally trying to rebuild everything - every form of depth. Signing Panarin is a win-very-soon maneuver. The Rangers need to be careful if they're left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren't ready and Panarin.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I got 10 on it.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Hypothetical:

The Rangers trade Shattenkirk to Buffalo with no $$ retained.

The Rangers sign Panarin for 7 years @ $8m per season

Would anyone be upset pretty much adding $1.5m in cap hit, along with the assets from moving Shattenkirk, and gaining Panarin?

In theory that sounds nice but Panarin isn't signing for 8 million

It'll be 10 million more likely

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think this board gives enough credit to how much this roster sucks, and how its going to suck more by the trade deadline. The Rangers are literally trying to rebuild everything - every form of depth. Signing Panarin is a win-very-soon maneuver. The Rangers need to be careful if they're left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren't ready and Panarin.

Which wouldn’t be all that different than if they’re left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren’t ready and no Panarin.

 

[Off Sides]

Hayes' role here is as an insulator. Keep kids from playing over their heads and then get dealt as a rental. There's a lot of value in having that even though the perceived value amongst fans will always be what he fetches in a trade.

I'm not desperate for Panarin, but if this team lands Hughes it certainly changes things. Panarin addresses a major need, likely shifts some kids into more optimal roles, and frees up other assets for trade. Now am I giving him a blank check? Hell no. However if he wants to sign a team friendly deal to play put his career in NY? Definitely exploring it.

See that I can understand, there should be a limit on how much they want to dedicate to any UFA, if it costs more than that, it should be time to go find some other option. Shattenkirk for 4 year instead of 7 is looking like it was a pretty good limit right now. Had he walked due to that, Rangers currently have other options.

 

[NYR Viper]

I don't think this board gives enough credit to how much this roster sucks, and how its going to suck more by the trade deadline. The Rangers are literally trying to rebuild everything - every form of depth. Signing Panarin is a win-very-soon maneuver. The Rangers need to be careful if they're left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren't ready and Panarin.

I find it a funny conversation as someone who sits on the fence for this specific topic. It's SO complicated with the variables between now and the next UFA period but both opposing arguments are so passionate one way or another it's amusing a bit.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Which wouldn’t be all that different than if they’re left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren’t ready and no Panarin.

Touche. Let's put it this way, I'd want to see some real progress from the young players over these next several months - then maybe we'll talk Panarin.

 

[NYR Viper]

In theory that sounds nice but Panarin isn't signing for 8 million

It'll be 10 million more likely

Perhaps. Maybe he takes $8.5 or $9m as they can sell the $$ he will make outside of hockey in NYC. All I am trying to prove is that it all depends on so many factors. Can they move a couple of guys on the defense? What do they get back at the deadline for their rentals? Who do they take in the draft? How does Andersson, Kravtsov, Miller, Keane, etc progress? How about the young NHLers like Pionk, ADA, Howden?

The answer to the Panarin situation, at least for me, is 'it depends'

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I don't think this board gives enough credit to how much this roster sucks, and how its going to suck more by the trade deadline. The Rangers are literally trying to rebuild everything - every form of depth. Signing Panarin is a win-very-soon maneuver. The Rangers need to be careful if they're left with a bunch of scraps/players that aren't ready and Panarin.

I'm aware the roster sucks, but I just don't see how signing him = "well screw the rebuild, let's push all the chips in again"

That's not how it works. You can sign Panarin and still be "rebuilding". And he'll still be here if (and quite frankly when) the rebuild is over in 2ish years. And it's not like Gorton is going full Sather 2.0 and start handing out top prospects at the deadline.

These guys don't go UFA often, and this one wants to come here. It's a literal no brainer as long as he doesn't want like 12 million a year

 

[NYR Viper]

I'm aware the roster sucks, but I just don't see how signing him = "well screw the rebuild, let's push all the chips in again"

That's not how it works. You can sign Panarin and still be "rebuilding". And he'll still be here if (and quite frankly when) the rebuild is over in 2ish years. And it's not like Gorton is going full Sather 2.0 and start handing out top prospects at the deadline.

These guys don't go UFA often, and this one wants to come here. It's a literal no brainer as long as he doesn't want like 12 million a year

I think the fear is that adding a guy like Panarin, if not given the proper support, does nothing except bring the organization back to the dreaded middle of the pack.

 

[Ola]

I definitely think Shatty has picked up his game.

Comparingour blueline last night with how we looked that game, was it against Carolina?, when both Pionk and ADA sat its completely like night and day.

Some struggle with ADAs consistency and with Pionk for being born but I do think the speed they have is important for this team.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I think the fear is that adding a guy like Panarin, if not given the proper support, does nothing except bring the organization back to the dreaded middle of the pack.

That's fair, but I'll counter and say Panarin isn't pulling this roster out of the muck by himself.

He's a superstar winger no doubt, but next year the defense will still be bad, and I love Hank but he ain't getting any younger. And as good as Shestyorkin may be, I'd be surprised if he starts lighting it up immediately next year.

Even if they signed him, I'd bet on them being a bottom 5 team, maybe a little better like bottom 8. This is the year to be complete garbage

 

[NYR Viper]

I definitely think Shatty has picked up his game.

Comparingour blueline last night with how we looked that game, was it against Carolina?, when both Pionk and ADA sat its completely like night and day.

Some struggle with ADAs consistency and with Pionk for being born but I do think the speed they have is important for this team.

Some struggle for Pionk being born!?!?!

 

[NYR Viper]

That's fair, but I'll counter and say Panarin isn't pulling this roster out of the muck by himself.

He's a superstar winger no doubt, but next year the defense will still be bad, and I love Hank but he ain't getting any younger. And as good as Shestyorkin may be, I'd be surprised if he starts lighting it up immediately next year.

Even if they signed him, I'd bet on them being a bottom 5 team, maybe a little better like bottom 8. This is the year to be complete garbage

I agree. I think, if you were to ask me if they should sign a player LIKE Panarin in the future, I'd say hell yes. I almost wish he was a UFA at the end of NEXT year. At that point I'd be more comfortable as it gives the young players one more year and the picture gets a little bit clearer as to what they have.

 

[Tawnos]

Touche. Let's put it this way, I'd want to see some real progress from the young players over these next several months - then maybe we'll talk Panarin.

That's fair. I just think the players are going to succeed or fail regardless of what they do with Panarin and they're going to need to make a Panarin-like move at some point anyway. Here's the opportunity (potentially).

There's an argument to be made that next year is essentially going to be year 5 of the rebuild, from the perspective of where our prospects are.

Year 1 2016: Howden, Hajek, Rykov, Lindgren, Ronning, Fontaine, Gettinger
Year 2 2017: Andersson, Chytil, Pionk, Georgiev, Virta
Year 3 2018: Kravtsov, Miller, Lundkvist, Keane
Year 4 2019: Whoever we draft this year, plus add to the other years whatever prospects we pick up in trades of vets
Year 5 2020:

My point is mostly that, even though the rebuild really began in earnest last year, the structure of the organization is further along than most people think of it at this point. The Rangers should really be looking to move into competitiveness by 20-21 at the latest... signing Panarin next year only anticipates that by 1 season.

 

[Off Sides]

Panarin will not pull them out by himself, so do the Rangers stay patient and continue to rebuild post signing him, or do they know he is not doing it by himself and go out and sign way more than just him? Or trade youth or picks for someone to support him right away? If they are in playoff position, do they rent?

Any expensive free agent and I think the clock starts on them thinking about contending, I don't think they are going to sit by and be very patient from that point on.

 

[Off Sides]

Even with all those picks, if they all turn into Dubinsky, Anisimov, Callahan, Staal, Stepan, etc how is that any different? They add a Gaborik or Nash to it?

Until some prospect show he is elite or near to, likely more than one even, they really should not be messing around at the top of the UFA market.

 

[LaffyTaffy]

It is so Rangers to carve out a winning streak with 0 regulation wins. I hope Gorton still makes a minor shakeup right now like BBKers half speculation half reported. I am sure El Jefe doesn't think two shootout wins and 7 minutes of ice-time for Chytil means we are on a better trajectory than before those two wins.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Panarin will not pull them out by himself, so do the Rangers stay patient and continue to rebuild post signing him, or do they know he is not doing it by himself and go out and sign way more than just him? Or trade youth or picks for someone to support him right away? If they are in playoff position, do they rent?

Any expensive free agent and I think the clock starts on them thinking about contending, I don't think they are not going to sit by and be very patient from that point on.

Unless they get lucky in the draft lottery, there will be virtually no other way to secure elite talent like Panarin. The Rangers are (probably rightfully so) hedging, and whatever happens in the summer of 2019 will chart their course for several years to come. The grand slam would be getting the #1 or 2 pick AND signing Panarin.

I think they need to get rid of Hayes and Zucc pronto and really bite the bullet this year. Focus on developing the young guys and instilling a culture of work ethic. Don't really worry about W's and L's. All these shootout points are doing are making the Rangers a bigger long-shot to land that elite talent through the draft.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

Even with all those picks, if they all turn into Dubinsky, Anisimov, Callahan, Staal, Stepan, etc how is that any different? They add a Gaborik or Nash to it?

Until some prospect show he is elite or near to, likely more than one even, they really should not be messing around at the top of the UFA market.

I often fear this is the type of path the Rangers are on. And, even with the benefit of the best goalie of this generation, it still didn't put them over the top.

 

[NYR Viper]

I often fear this is the type of path the Rangers are on. And, even with the benefit of the best goalie of this generation, it still didn't put them over the top.

To be fair, that last group of Rangers did not have anywhere close to as many 1st rounders or high 1st rounders available to that group. Andersson @ 7 and Kravtsov @ 9 are higher picks than anyone the Rangers selected for that last core. That will most likely also be the case for this years 1st rounder as well.

Who was the highest pick from the last core to play meaningful minutes for the Rangers? Staal @ 12?

Obviously it all depends on how guys progress after being drafted but just based on draft status the new core should be more skilled.

 

[Trxjw]

See that I can understand, there should be a limit on how much they want to dedicate to any UFA, if it costs more than that, it should be time to go find some other option. Shattenkirk for 4 year instead of 7 is looking like it was a pretty good limit right now. Had he walked due to that, Rangers currently have other options.

I think it gets lost in the debate but I think you'll find that most people entertaining Panarin are hinging their stance on two things: One the Rangers land an elite prospect at the draft and two Panarin signs a reasonable contract. I don't think he'll do a short term deal but if he says he'd do a shade above the JvR AAV for 6 years? It's a tough call. I'm certainly not giving him Tavares money though.

Say they win the Hughes sweepstakes. Their center depth is now Hughes, Zibby, Howden Chtyil, Andy, etc. Very strong depth. Can Zib and Andy bump out to the wings?

Panarin / Hughes / Andersson
Kreider / Chytil / Zib

That's all before you factor in guys like Buchnevich, Kravtsov, and whoever else materializes over the next 9 months. Plenty of assets still in the pipeline and probably 4 or 5 top 62 picks in the 19 draft. That might be the perfect storm to make a move to land that coveted RHD.

 

[Tawnos]

Even with all those picks, if they all turn into Dubinsky, Anisimov, Callahan, Staal, Stepan, etc how is that any different? They add a Gaborik or Nash to it?

Until some prospect show he is elite or near to, likely more than one even, they really should not be messing around at the top of the UFA market.

Even if one or two of those picks turn into elite or near-elite, the Rangers are still going to have to acquire another skater or two at the same level. I was making this point in a post yesterday. When you look at the teams that have won Cups, the number of elite or near-elite players they drafted is 2 or 3 but that's always supplemented by a player at the same level acquired from outside the organization.

In other words, the calculation is the same. If you draft and develop 2 or 3 top-end players, you need to acquire at least one more from somewhere else. If you draft and develop 1 or 0 top-end players, you need to acquire at least one more from somewhere else. If we have to do it anyway, why not do it when the opportunity is there and it definitely doesn't cost any assets?

 

[Off Sides]

Even if one or two of those picks turn into elite or near-elite, the Rangers are still going to have to acquire another skater or two at the same level. I was making this point in a post yesterday. When you look at the teams that have won Cups, the number of elite or near-elite players they drafted is 2 or 3 but that's always supplemented by a player at the same level acquired from outside the organization.

In other words, the calculation is the same. If you draft and develop 2 or 3 top-end players, you need to acquire at least one more from somewhere else. If you draft and develop 1 or 0 top-end players, you need to acquire at least one more from somewhere else. If we have to do it anyway, why not do it when the opportunity is there and it definitely doesn't cost any assets?

I think there likely be another Panarin to be signed at some point down the road. Maybe not exactly like him but it seems safer to me to wait for the best prospects to be in the NHL before counting on them.

Ties into this reply.

To be fair, that last group of Rangers did not have anywhere close to as many 1st rounders or high 1st rounders available to that group. Andersson @ 7 and Kravtsov @ 9 are higher picks than anyone the Rangers selected for that last core. That will most likely also be the case for this years 1st rounder as well.

Who was the highest pick from the last core to play meaningful minutes for the Rangers? Staal @ 12?

Obviously it all depends on how guys progress after being drafted but just based on draft status the new core should be more skilled.

While I agree they are earlier picks, I'm not so sure until they are at least NHL ready that we or the Rangers will know what their peaks are.

I guess I am just not as optimistic as most concerning the highest end of the current prospect, I could see Chytil, Howden, Lias all turning out pretty close to that of the players I mentioned before. Kravtsov seem to be brimming with talent, yet until that translates. Miller has had a nice post draft year so far. Yet as we have seen with Del Zotto, Duclair maybe now Buch, it's not like those early glimpse always turn out to be accurate.

I don't know, seems like signing expensive UFA is jumping the gun as even what has been drafted already is not really ready or known.

I also am not a fan of this or that signing helps mentor or develop, it seems like a nebulous debate that is pretty difficult to know what type of impact it has/had positive or negative.

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think it's realistic to assume that there will be another Panarin-level UFA down the road who definitely signs with the Rangers. I'm not even saying that Panarin is a guarantee to sign here, I'm just saying that you try because you don't know what will be available later. The only players at or above that level in 2020 are Taylor Hall, Alex Pietrangelo, and Roman Josi. There are some lesser 60 pt forwards or 2nd pairing D. In 2021, there won't even be a forward at that level who is under 30, and the only 1st pairing D is maybe Dougie Hamilton depending on how the next couple of years go for him. Again, some lesser 60 pt forwards or 2nd pair D. How many of them are even going to make it that far?

There will undoubtedly be trade targets, but early on in the competitive window, UFAs are better.

It isn't enough to wait until you are good. You have to anticipate being good.