Roster Building Thread - Part XI (Off-season edition)

[Savant]

I know right. The difference isn't even enough for one good 2nd line player.

It’s about the right guy. It’s not an exact science and there’s examples on both sides. You absolutely can get an All Star at that price. You absolutely can get a top line/top D player at that price. That makes a significant difference. Of course you can bomb that signing too, but again if you pick the right guy it’s not just limited to good second line players.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

It’s about the right guy. It’s not an exact science and there’s examples on both sides. You absolutely can get an All Star at that price. You absolutely can get a top line/top D player at that price. That makes a significant difference. Of course you can bomb that signing too, but again if you pick the right guy it’s not just limited to good second line players.

How many teams got an all star player for that price in the UFA market this year?

 

[Savant]

How many teams got an all star player for that price in the UFA market this year?

You knows it’s times like this Capfriendly would be nice. I’ll try to wing it a bit

On top of my head I know JAM went for around that. Thats literally a Stanley Cup difference maker right there. I think DeBrusk went for around that and he scores playoff goals. I mean if the bar is “player is significantly better than Roslovic” that applies. Tyler Bertuzzi scores goals and is a good 5x5 player. Teravainen is good. Monahan is less good that the others but he is in there. On defense Pesce is in there. Canes signed Walker and Gostibehere for like 3m-ish each and both are upgrades here. Zadarov is an upgrade

That’s not a bad group. Some of the term lengths are obviously better than others but if we are just talking about that salary range, then yeah there are good options that would have improved the team. Especially if we are looking at people who weren’t free agents, it’s not exactly a dead zone

 

[bhamill]

It’s about the right guy. It’s not an exact science and there’s examples on both sides. You absolutely can get an All Star at that price. You absolutely can get a top line/top D player at that price. That makes a significant difference. Of course you can bomb that signing too, but again if you pick the right guy it’s not just limited to good second line players.

Not really. If a guy is already a 1st line forward or a top 2 D you aren’t signing them for 5-6 million. You can get a guy whith that potential, if you’re lucky. And most of the time to get one you’re going to have to trade other assets… most likely weakening yourself in another area. It’s not so simple.
But then again, is a single 1st line player or single top pair D going to make the difference? Can they “steal” you the number of games an elite G can? IMO, no. But it’s subjective.

IF NYR had a healthy Fox last playoffs we may well have played for the Cup. Never mind the other two of our top 4 D playing injured and two of our top forwards not playing up to expectations. As someone else (and you) said, it’s about having the RIGHT players. Players that will buy into the system and raise their games. Players that will leave it all out on the ice. I think Drury has done well drafting those sorts, hopefully with the right amount of NHL talent, but that remains to be seen. And it’s about LUCK, who stays healthy, who gets a few bounces. But for my money an elite goaltender covers up for a lot of other disadvantages. WAY more than a single 6m forward or D can, even if they are playing 25 mins a game.

I’m sure it’s a debate that will never be satisfactorily settled.

 

[Savant]

Not really. If a guy is already a 1st line forward or a top 2 D you aren’t signing them for 5-6 million. You can get a guy whith that potential, if you’re lucky. And most of the time to get one you’re going to have to trade other assets… most likely weakening yourself in another area. It’s not so simple.
But then again, is a single 1st line player or single top pair D going to make the difference? Can they “steal” you the number of games an elite G can? IMO, no. But it’s subjective.

IF NYR had a healthy Fox last playoffs we may well have played for the Cup. Never mind the other two of our top 4 D playing injured and two of our top forwards not playing up to expectations. As someone else (and you) said, it’s about having the RIGHT players. Players that will buy into the system and raise their games. Players that will leave it all out on the ice. I think Drury has done well drafting those sorts, hopefully with the right amount of NHL talent, but that remains to be seen. And it’s about LUCK, who stays healthy, who gets a few bounces. But for my money an elite goaltender covers up for a lot of other disadvantages. WAY more than a single 6m forward or D can, even if they are playing 25 mins a game.

I’m sure it’s a debate that will never be satisfactorily settled.

You have to develop the player too. Like ideally you want someone with upside that you can level up too. Look at Hyman and Trocheck

 

[Mac n Gs]

You knows it’s times like this Capfriendly would be nice. I’ll try to wing it a bit

On top of my head I know JAM went for around that. Thats literally a Stanley Cup difference maker right there. I think DeBrusk went for around that and he scores playoff goals. I mean if the bar is “player is significantly better than Roslovic” that applies. Tyler Bertuzzi scores goals and is a good 5x5 player. Teravainen is good. Monahan is less good that the others but he is in there. On defense Pesce is in there. Canes signed Walker and Gostibehere for like 3m-ish each and both are upgrades here. Zadarov is an upgrade

That’s not a bad group. Some of the term lengths are obviously better than others but if we are just talking about that salary range, then yeah there are good options that would have improved the team. Especially if we are looking at people who weren’t free agents, it’s not exactly a dead zone

CapWages and PuckPedia are the two best replacements right now for CapFriendly. They still need to work out some kinks, but the user interface is getting better and better

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Sure, but is that 5-6M you are spending on one player (or two for 2.5-3M each) going to have as much of an impact as Igor is? I highly doubt it.

We haven't won with elite goaltending since Hank got here. If we're saying we have a better chance with elite goaltending then that hasn't proved itself to be true. Imo there has to be a limit in what you pay your goalie. You're saying it's only 5-6 mill but say we added that 5 or 6 mill to the money we're now paying Smith to be a stop gap, that could have been Guentzel money a lot of moves we've made we're because we had no cap space to use. I love Igor, but once he signs the next contract, if the cap doesn't skyrocket we're gonna have a hard time icing a proper team with Panarin, Kreider, and Mika, Fox making their money, and Miller, Lafreniere, etc due their raises. It would suck to do but our biggest strength in this organization hasn't been used to the best of its abilities, and that is our goalie coach. We've taken guys like Rannta and Quick and turned their careers around. The fact that we can be a goalie factory and still end up paying top dollar for a goalie makes no sense to me. It comes down to cap space, love Igor, one of his biggest boosters but if he wants to win a Cup he's gonna have to leave some cake on the table. Markstrom for example could have come here for two years on the cheap and had his career straightened out by this teams ability to create or recreate goalies.

 

[Barnaby]

We haven't won with elite goaltending since Hank got here. If we're saying we have a better chance with elite goaltending then that hasn't proved itself to be true. Imo there has to be a limit in what you pay your goalie. You're saying it's only 5-6 mill but say we added that 5 or 6 mill to the money we're now paying Smith to be a stop gap, that could have been Guentzel money a lot of moves we've made we're because we had no cap space to use. I love Igor, but once he signs the next contract, if the cap doesn't skyrocket we're gonna have a hard time icing a proper team with Panarin, Kreider, and Mika, Fox making their money, and Miller, Lafreniere, etc due their raises. It would suck to do but our biggest strength in this organization hasn't been used to the best of its abilities, and that is our goalie coach. We've taken guys like Rannta and Quick and turned their careers around. The fact that we can be a goalie factory and still end up paying top dollar for a goalie makes no sense to me. It comes down to cap space, love Igor, one of his biggest boosters but if he wants to win a Cup he's gonna have to leave some cake on the table. Markstrom for example could have come here for two years on the cheap and had his career straightened out by this teams ability to create or recreate goalies.

So we trade a 1st + for Markstrom for 2 years at 6 million.

We then trade Igor to recoup those assets and maybe add another mediocre piece. Remember the receiving team needs to pay him 11ish million which also reduces the amount of suitors.

Ok, so you have 5 million in cap, plus need to find another goalie in 2 years. Maybe you sign JAM, Bertuzzi, or Debrusk for too long at too much. Maybe you add another 2nd pair defenseman instead. You honestly think that’s a better playoff team and use of assets? Just because they never won with Hank or Igor doesn’t mean they win if they’d dealt them.

 

[bhamill]

You have to develop the player too. Like ideally you want someone with upside that you can level up too. Look at Hyman and Trocheck

That’s more likely. I’m all for doing that in general. But there are no guarantees. And there’s still the question of whether a Vinnie Trocheck and a mediocre goalie gets you further than a Shestyrkin…

 

[Machinehead]

That’s more likely. I’m all for doing that in general. But there are no guarantees. And there’s still the question of whether a Vinnie Trocheck and a mediocre goalie gets you further than a Shestyrkin…

By itself, probably not, but I also think this team needs to just get rid of the crutch of having the best goalie in the league if they're going to change anything.

 

[Savant]

That’s more likely. I’m all for doing that in general. But there are no guarantees. And there’s still the question of whether a Vinnie Trocheck and a mediocre goalie gets you further than a Shestyrkin…

I mean I think in the regular season you want Igor. In the postseason you want the extra all star

 

[Shesterkybomb]

So we trade a 1st + for Markstrom for 2 years at 6 million.

We then trade Igor to recoup those assets and maybe add another mediocre piece. Remember the receiving team needs to pay him 11ish million which also reduces the amount of suitors.

Ok, so you have 5 million in cap, plus need to find another goalie in 2 years. Maybe you sign JAM, Bertuzzi, or Debrusk for too long at too much. Maybe you add another 2nd pair defenseman instead. You honestly think that’s a better playoff team and use of assets? Just because they never won with Hank or Igor doesn’t mean they win if they’d dealt them.

I think you're underestimating igors value, what does the best goalie in the league get for a return? Would Toronto trade Mitch Marner for him? The cap hit would be the same. You add a 100+ point player to Zibs and Kreider and we start looking like a juggernaut. The Markstrom trade had retention so he isn't making 6 mill, you make everything work, that's the gms job, and then when Markstrom is done Garand slides in at league minimum opening up even more space. Having Igor at 12 mill for like 7 years is gonna kill us long term, love the player but it's hard to compete.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I think you're underestimating igors value, what does the best goalie in the league get for a return? Would Toronto trade Mitch Marner for him? The cap hit would be the same. You add a 100+ point player to Zibs and Kreider and we start looking like a juggernaut. The Markstrom trade had retention so he isn't making 6 mill, you make everything work, that's the gms job, and then when Markstrom is done Garand slides in at league minimum opening up even more space. Having Igor at 12 mill for like 7 years is gonna kill us long term, love the player but it's hard to compete.

No show Marner in the playoffs? So we trade our best playoff performer for a player who does nothing when the playoffs start. Makes sense.

I mean I think in the regular season you want Igor. In the postseason you want the extra all star

Igor was literally our playoff all star, while our regular season all stars all took a nap in the conference finals.

 

[Savant]

No show Marner in the playoffs? So we trade our best playoff performer for a player who does nothing when the playoffs start. Makes sense.

Not Marner

Igor was literally our playoff all star, while our regular season all stars all took a nap in the conference finals.

This isn’t making the point that you think that it’s making. Adin Hill won a cup with Vegas. Darcy Kuemper won a cup with Colorado. The teams that won the cup that are paying their goalies are in states with no income tax so it’s easier for them to get team friendly contracts elsewhere. You need a hot goalie. You do not need an all star goalie. You need talent in depth. Another all star helps if the existing ones are slumping. This is literally the last 5 cup winners.

 

[Machinehead]

Igor was literally our playoff all star, while our regular season all stars all took a nap in the conference finals.

And where did that get us?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Not Marner

This isn’t making the point that you think that it’s making. Adin Hill won a cup with Vegas. Darcy Kuemper won a cup with Colorado. The teams that won the cup that are paying their goalies are in states with no income tax so it’s easier for them to get team friendly contracts elsewhere. You need a hot goalie. You do not need an all star goalie. You need talent in depth. Another all star helps if the existing ones are slumping. This is literally the last 5 cup winners.

Cherry picking winning teams is great, when you ignore the dozens of teams who cant go anywhere in the playoffs with an average goalie. See: Canes.

It’s same thing over and over, you arent getting a massive all star team depth like the Avs had by saving 6M. Don’t under how people fail to see that.

 

[Savant]

Cherry picking winning teams is great, when you ignore the dozens of teams who cant go anywhere in the playoffs with an average goalie. See: Canes.

I’m not cherry picking. I am using the five most recent examples. I don’t think that’s unfair at all. And again this isn’t an exact science but Canes might have gotten sunk by that Pesce injury. This was the first year they went for it at the deadline. If anything the Canes are the example why we should have gotten Guentzel at the deadline

 

[UnSandvich]

I’m not cherry picking. I am using the five most recent examples. I don’t think that’s unfair at all. And again this isn’t an exact science but Canes might have gotten sunk by that Pesce injury. This was the first year they went for it at the deadline. If anything the Canes are the example why we should have gotten Guentzel at the deadline

Guentzel wasn’t fixing Kreider and Zibadejad. Or solving the issues our D had moving the puck.

At that point we’re basically ending up right where we did anyway, but we’d get to spend even more for the privilege.

 

[Savant]

Guentzel wasn’t fixing Kreider and Zibadejad. Or solving the issues our D had moving the puck.

At that point we’re basically ending up right where we did anyway, but we’d get to spend even more for the privilege.

I disagree. I think Guentzel would have helped those guys out a lot, and/or made it easier to split them. The difference for Roslovic to Guentzel is exponential.

Guentzel significantly improved the guys he was with in Carolina. Could have done the same here. He absolutely upleveled his line

 

[Synergy27]

The Igor thing is more complicated than you guys are making it. To me, it’s more of a “we are f***ed because our best player is a goalie” situation than a “we need to trade our goalie to get better” situation.

I don’t see a path to trading Igor wherein we add an all star caliber skater on a cap neutral basis. Those players aren’t available.

I also don’t see a path to winning a Cup when we are paying a goalie 14% of the cap.

This is just more being unlucky even when we get lucky stuff. What would be interesting would be if Kakko was a 100 point player looking to get paid and we were deciding between him and Igor. Instead we are contemplating paying Igor what he’s worth at the risk of further weakening a skater roster that already isn’t good enough.

 

[UnSandvich]

I disagree. I think Guentzel would have helped those guys out a lot, and/or made it easier to split them. The difference for Roslovic to Guentzel is exponential.

Guentzel significantly improved the guys he was with in Carolina. Could have done the same here. He absolutely upleveled his line

We’ll see how things look with Smith on this line this year, but I don’t see Zibanejad magically becoming good at 5v5 offense again. And I don’t see Guentzel as being a massive upgrade from Smith

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

I disagree. I think Guentzel would have helped those guys out a lot, and/or made it easier to split them. The difference for Roslovic to Guentzel is exponential.

Guentzel significantly improved the guys he was with in Carolina. Could have done the same here. He absolutely upleveled his line

Call me crazy, but (IMO) nothing is going to help the BFFs until they decide to help themselves. The revolving door on the other wing has been a circus. Guentzel was not going to make them any better. I always felt the best solution for them is to separate them once and for all.

 

[n8]

How many teams got an all star player for that price in the UFA market this year?

Zach Hyman comes to mind but that wasn't exactly a no-brainer signing at the time. He was good but his AAV was well... market value I guess? Now it's a golden steal.

 

[Overcast]

So we trade a 1st + for Markstrom for 2 years at 6 million.

We then trade Igor to recoup those assets and maybe add another mediocre piece. Remember the receiving team needs to pay him 11ish million which also reduces the amount of suitors.

Ok, so you have 5 million in cap, plus need to find another goalie in 2 years. Maybe you sign JAM, Bertuzzi, or Debrusk for too long at too much. Maybe you add another 2nd pair defenseman instead. You honestly think that’s a better playoff team and use of assets? Just because they never won with Hank or Igor doesn’t mean they win if they’d dealt them.

I think ~20 years is a long enough sample size to warrant wanting to try a different approach to team composition. Maybe it doesn't lead to immediate success or better results than what we've seen since the Hank years started, but I'd certainly be interested to see the results of swapping out an $11m Igor for a $5-6m goalie and $5-6m middle 6er that could offer more lineup flexibility.

I know in real life this scenario probably wouldn't happen with the window this iteration of the team is currently in, but if there's a chance in the future for the team to be built around their forwards instead of their goalie, I would rather see what a "middling" goalie would look like behind an overall (for argument's sake) better constructed team.

 

[Barnaby]

I think you're underestimating igors value, what does the best goalie in the league get for a return? Would Toronto trade Mitch Marner for him? The cap hit would be the same. You add a 100+ point player to Zibs and Kreider and we start looking like a juggernaut. The Markstrom trade had retention so he isn't making 6 mill, you make everything work, that's the gms job, and then when Markstrom is done Garand slides in at league minimum opening up even more space. Having Igor at 12 mill for like 7 years is gonna kill us long term, love the player but it's hard to compete.

Marner? So you want to trade one of the best playoff performers in the league for one of the worst? How do we know Garand ever becomes a starter? In theory if he’s a top 10 goalie maybe peanuts then great, but you could say that about any prospect.