Trotz isn't stupid. No way Nashville gives up a fine, 26 year old D signed for $2M, plus three high picks for Trouba. Maybe Nashville would do Trouba with retention and a future 2nd for Lauzon. But Rangers aren't getting 3 picks and a decent D on a good contract for him, especially without retention. Predators have nearly $30M in cap space this season. They will be big game hunting, not picking up capdumps without some sweet incentives.
I could maybe see Lindgren getting a 2nd and a 3rd. But not 2 2nds and a 3rd.
I'm not sure I trade Kakko to a place to go explode next to a superstar C, either. Someone will bite on Goodrow without a Kakko sweetener, but it won't be for a 1st, and that's ok.
I think people overvalue picks. The odds of a 2nd and 3rd, collectively, becoming even a 100 game NHL player is not that high. Getting a 26 year old top-4 defenseman as a RFA is going to cost more than a 2nd + 3rd.
In terms of Trouba, look at the underlying numbers.
Lets make the comparison to a player who they just traded away in Ryan McDonagh who they lied and wanted to keep but asked to go back to TB. Both guys have 2 years left on their deals.
2022-2023
Trouba - Age 28
82 gp
21 p @ 5v5
0.9 p/60 @ 5v5
218 hits
196 blocks
0.9 CF% rel @ 5v5
McDonagh - Age 33
71 gp
16 p @ 5v5
0.8 p/60 @ 5v5
63 hits @ 5v5
165 blocks
-4.0 CF% rel @ 5v5
2023-2024
Trouba - Age 29
69 gp
16 p @ 5v5
0.8 p/60 @ 5v5
191 hits
183 blocks
-4.0 CF% rel @5v5
McDonagh - Age 33
74 gp
24 p @ 5v5
1.1 p/60 @ 5v5
38 hits
139 blocks
2.0 CF% rel @ 5v5
What are the odds that Trouba, at age 30, will revert back to his 22-23 numbers? If you look at his track record, it's pretty high.
Contracts:
McDonagh
$6.75m cap hit
$11.13m in total dollars owed
Trouba
$8m cap hit
$12.0m in total dollars owed
So we are talking about a player who has been a perennial top-4 RD, playing tough minutes as one of the most physical defensemen in the league for a while. He's going to be 30 years old to start the season and coming off what appears to be a somewhat injury riddled season. He was the captain of a team that just made the ECF and is known as a consummate leader.
Now we see what McDonagh just returned to Nashville, after requesting to be traded to 1 team. There was no bidding war there. The trade:
So a 2nd + 7th for McDonagh + 4th
If you're asking me, I'm expecting a 2nd + 2nd + 3rd for Trouba. Add in some salary of a player who they want to move, maybe it's Lauzon, maybe it's Glass, and the deal fits. Nashville was likely planning on having a veteran d-man with leadership qualities on their roster until MocDonagh asked out.
We can argue semantics and the return, maybe it's a 2nd + 3rd + 5th but I'm guessing it's going to be more.
Again, not all teams want to spend as many real dollars as the cap shows. Nashville is retooling so I would imagine they would be looking at real dollars in rather than cap hits right now. And the term fits their window AND it likely allows them to get him re-signed, should they want to, to a more team friendly deal once his deal is up as a veteran leader on the back-end.