Tawnos
A guy with a bass
My argument is that you can't guarantee which Hayes youryo getting. If he plays the way he did last year, then yeah, that deal is just fine and probably pretty valuable on the trade market should the need arise.
However, if he regresses then you're in a tough spot. You have an asset you have to hope bounces back because you've commited to him for a while. So while it's risky to hope that our prospects pan out, I think it's also risky to commit to a guy when you have the option to just wait and see. Besides, if our prospects don't pan out, we're going to have bigger problems than not having a Hayes replacement.
It's still hard to tell what we have in Hayes, and that in itself is enough to make me leery about signing him for long-term.
Also, players of similar quality to what Hayes has been are often available on the UFA market, like Tyler Bozak. Unless he takes a jump forward (not unthinkable at his age, see Derrick Brassard), I'm not worried about losing him since he's not really cost-controlled anymore.