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Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part LXIX

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pld459666 said:
Over the course of 82 games, I'm not concerned
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Over the course of 82 games it's more concerning than it is over one game. It's equivalent to bad defensive play giving other teams goals. Actually, it's slightly worse, since it's also 2:00 where you are unlikely to score.

Filip Chytil took 5 penalties this year. Ryan Strome took 24 penalties. That additional 19 penalties is equivalent to about an additional 4GA (Slightly less because Strome had more TOI but then slightly more because they didn't play 82 games. I don't feel like doing the math right now but it'll roughly cancel out).

I'm certainly concerned about allowing 4-5 more goals for no reason and having up to 38 additional minutes where the team is much less likely to score. It's one thing if you're taking a ton of penalties and you're scoring like Evgeni Malkin or you're drawing them like Matthew Tkachuk.
 
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Loki Dog 74 said:
To me, low end second line is not. Fundamental difference in how we view things, but to me low end second line is a place holder for a kid or someone who is filling a role because the depth isn’t there. So Strome’s historical point production away from Panarin, even when given credit for his pace after being traded here and not the actual results of his season, is low, low end second line. For all forwards. For centers it’s outside of the top 62. For all forwards in the NHL it’s around 163 of 186. And that’s giving him credit for pace, not actuals.

Also 50 does not put you in the top 93 forwards. 52 is the cutoff and aside from a handful, only the lowest end top line forwards are at 50+, about 80 of 93 are above 60.

Obviously last year is an entirely different beast, but I think that’s where the problem is for most people. We’ve got a one dimensional guy in the vein of Parenteau whose total game leaves a lot to be desired but he just paced for 70 points (Parenteau and Tavares, PA had 67). His career averages and even bests from his entire NHL past place him just on the cusp of being a very low end 2C. Now you have the discrepancy between a historically lacking borderline 2C and a guy who in his most recent outing paced for 70. Finding what the sweet spot in between is seems to be a hold up for JG as well.
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That certainly can be what a second line used for in some cases, but teams that have playoff aspirations are not saving a spot in the top-6 just in case a kid steps up. They usually like to have the roles filled out and if a youngsters' play forces their hand, so be it.

52 points put Kreider at 92, within two points of breaking into the top 80. Want to say that 50 is on the outside, looking in? Fine. That makes it two points lower than the lower tier in the echelon.

I know exactly who and what Strome is. I have no delusions. I just do not see a cheaper, and definitively better upgrade. We know what he is and what he does. I am not sure that betting on just another UFA is the right answer. For multiple reasons. Factor into that how many UFAs have failed here.
 
Listen I by no means think strome is the future 2c, but rn hes what we got. Keep in mind that these short playoffs were the only playoffs hes seen in a while, where he was actually expected to contribute at a 2c level. Hes a complimentary player with defensive lapses. Lets see if jacques martin can work magic. If we get marginally better defensively, i dont think we will be as worried. Still think chytil takes the 2c spot throughout the season.
 
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bbny said:
If this board collectively diverted the time used on Strome and DeAngelo discussions and funneled it towards medicine research, we'd have a mass worldwide COVID vaccine already. And possibly a cure for cancer.
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Fixed it
 
Thirty One said:
I'm not so sure about that. Think we'd have two alternatives proposed and a list of reasons why the other one sucks.
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Funny..I think JG would just go to Rite Aid and pick up some vaseline, call it a cure and just go on about the season.
 
True Blue said:
That certainly can be what a second line used for in some cases, but teams that have playoff aspirations are not saving a spot in the top-6 just in case a kid steps up. They usually like to have the roles filled out and if a youngsters' play forces their hand, so be it.

52 points put Kreider at 92, within two points of breaking into the top 80. Want to say that 50 is on the outside, looking in? Fine. That makes it two points lower than the lower tier in the echelon.

I know exactly who and what Strome is. I have no delusions. I just do not see a cheaper, and definitively better upgrade. We know what he is and what he does. I am not sure that betting on just another UFA is the right answer. For multiple reasons. Factor into that how many UFAs have failed here.
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I agree with you. Like I said, partially this is all academic because it’s the off season and there’s nothing happening worth talking about. I didn’t start the Strome train, I just hopped on.

I do think Gorton sees Strome as that placeholder type of borderline top six guy and that part of the reason for all the hesitation is that he’s spent a lot of time exploring every possible way of acquiring an upgrade to what he believes is a more “set in stone” top six player.

I do think that tiering the classifications of top line, top six, etc. has some merit, outside of this conversation specifically. 50 itself falls outside of the top 93, but is damn close to it. Basically 50 is tweener territory for forwards, with 52 being a low end top line forward. However, within that, let’s say for example a guy like a Strome has 52, a guy like Kreider has 52 and a guy like Wilson has 52. Kreider and Wilson may have scored in the low end range, but they bring other things that solidify them as genuine top line guys, where as the Strome example has scored in the low end range and brings nothing additional to strengthen his case. That’s why I say that being in the top half of the pack versus being right at the cutoff mark are not the same for me. Kreider is within the cutoff for a top 93 forward, but he’s nowhere near the top half of that group. He’s also a bit better than some of the guys near the bottom of the group because looking at him as a whole player and not just his production adds other assets to his package. Strome falling near the bottom end of second line forwards and out of the second line center production range is different because he brings nothing extra to strengthen his case. Aside from his year with Panarin, his production whether real or projected pace, has been just on the cusp of second/third line, and the rest of his game is poor.
 
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