Speculation: Roster Building Thread Part IX: Trying To Reason With The Upcoming Season

[Tawnos]

All it takes is 2 teams to be interested and that point of needing to trade him goes out the window

Yeah. You occasionally have a Spezza or Heatley situation, but for the most part, value usually ends up where you'd expect it.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I've found that this kind of thing generally has no effect on trade value.

Staal and St Louis forced their way here and the price didn't drop. Gaborik waived his NMC for Columbus and the price didn't drop.

 

[SA16]

Vegas could have just re-signed James Neal, who said he wanted to stay, for less money than it would cost to sign Pacioretty and not have traded anything away.

 

[RangerBoy]

 

[RangerBoy]

 

[SA16]

Do you post anything that isn't negative?

 

[RangerBoy]

Do you post anything that isn't negative?

That’s positive. The Rangers with 71-72 points would be the best development for the organization. 2nd worst overall. They would have to awful luck in the lottery to not end up with a top pick and select a a elite level type player. This draft is loaded with top young players. The Rangers need one of those guys. Bottom out completely. Gorton unloads everybody at the trade deadline.

 

[silverfish]

Finishing 2nd worst overall gives you a ~60% chance at picking outside the top-3. AKA awful luck. We literally just saw this happen to Ottawa. And ARI at 3, for that matter.

 

[Tawnos]

Finishing 2nd worst overall gives you a ~60% chance at picking outside the top-3. AKA awful luck. We literally just saw this happen to Ottawa. And ARI at 3, for that matter.

Didn't Colorado pick 4th after having one of the worst records in history, post-cap?

 

[Inferno]

Finishing 2nd worst overall gives you a ~60% chance at picking outside the top-3. AKA awful luck. We literally just saw this happen to Ottawa. And ARI at 3, for that matter.

Finishing in the top 2 gives you a 100 percent chance of picking in the top 5....basically where like 70% of all the superstars in the league are picked.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Didn't Colorado pick 4th after having one of the worst records in history, post-cap?

Yup. They had 48 pts in 2016/2017.

It went

1st NJ 8.5% (Colorado was 18%)
2nd Phil 2.4% (Colorado was 16%)
3rd DAL 6.4% (Colorado was 14.1%)

 

[silverfish]

Finishing in the top 2 gives you a 100 percent chance of picking in the top 5....basically where like 70% of all the superstars in the league are picked.

I don't think that's what RB was insinuating, but, I tend to read his posts with shit covered goggles, so I could just be assuming.

Either way, there's no way this team finishes 30th or worse this season unless GMJG goes on a tirade and trades everyone around the deadline.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't think that's what RB was insinuating, but, I tend to read his posts with **** covered goggles, so I could just be assuming.

Either way, there's no way this team finishes 30th or worse this season unless GMJG goes on a tirade and trades everyone around the deadline.

They're an injury or 2 to the wrong people away from that being a possibility.

This applies to more teams than just them, but I've said it a bunch of times, not much has to go wrong for this team in order to fall down towards the bottom of the standings.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I don't think that's what RB was insinuating, but, I tend to read his posts with **** covered goggles, so I could just be assuming.

Either way, there's no way this team finishes 30th or worse this season unless GMJG goes on a tirade and trades everyone around the deadline.

I tend to agree, but man these models are not too fond of this team lol.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I don't think that's what RB was insinuating, but, I tend to read his posts with **** covered goggles, so I could just be assuming.

Either way, there's no way this team finishes 30th or worse this season unless GMJG goes on a tirade and trades everyone around the deadline.

So, you’re essentially saying eye test > analytics?

 

[Tawnos]

I tend to agree, but man these models are not too fond of this team lol.

If the coaching change makes as big of a difference as we think it will, I'm not sure I see the value in using past statistics to predict future performance, in the context of a data model.

 

[silverfish]

So, you’re essentially saying eye test > analytics?

Lmao, you got me.

I'm saying I don't necessarily agree with the models. I'm sure they'll be much closer than my random nothingness of which I'm basing my assumptions, but I don't see this team hovering around 75 points or less this year. I see them closer to the lower 80s.

I think this is more personal bias than not agreeing with analytics. I'm okay to admit that I'm biased for my team.

What I really think is going to happen is this team gets out of the gate on a PDO bender, something stupid like 10-3, and Gorton makes a trade that causes HFNYR to crumble into itself. Like Howden and another pick for Petrovic or something really stupid like that.

 

[SA16]

The models have so much error in them that the difference between teams ranked similarly is essentially negligible.

They also all run into the problem that any player who has been on the team for the last several years has their numbers all screwy thanks to AV.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Lmao, you got me.

I'm saying I don't necessarily agree with the models. I'm sure they'll be much closer than my random nothingness of which I'm basing my assumptions, but I don't see this team hovering around 75 points or less this year. I see them closer to the lower 80s.

I think this is more personal bias than not agreeing with analytics. I'm okay to admit that I'm biased for my team.

What I really think is going to happen is this team gets out of the gate on a PDO bender, something stupid like 10-3, and Gorton makes a trade that causes HFNYR to crumble into itself. Like Howden and another pick for Petrovic or something really stupid like that.

I understand the personal bias, but I find it kind of funny that both the pro-analytics and the anti-analytics groups rejecting what just about every model is suggesting so far. I’m an anomaly here for the most part. I see a mediocre forward group, a dreadful defense, an aging goalie, an unproven backup, very little depth and a rookie coaching staff...that, to me, is a recipe for a bottom five finish.

 

[silverfish]

I understand the personal bias, but I find it kind of funny that both the pro-analytics and the anti-analytics groups rejecting what just about every model is suggesting so far. I’m an anomaly here for the most part. I see a mediocre forward, a dreadful defense, an aging goalie, an unproven backup, very little depth and a rookie coaching staff...that, to me, is a recipe for a bottom five finish.

Yeah I don't think any of these takes are particularly wrong.

 

[mas0764]

Finishing 2nd worst overall gives you a ~60% chance at picking outside the top-3. AKA awful luck. We literally just saw this happen to Ottawa. And ARI at 3, for that matter.

Yeah but Ottawa picked fourth.

Still better than where we picked, which was 9th.

Tank away.

 

[Inferno]

I think we'll be bad...not dreadful...honestly I'd RATHER us be dreadful than bad...lol

 

[haohmaru]

I understand the personal bias, but I find it kind of funny that both the pro-analytics and the anti-analytics groups rejecting what just about every model is suggesting so far. I’m an anomaly here for the most part. I see a mediocre forward group, a dreadful defense, an aging goalie, an unproven backup, very little depth and a rookie coaching staff...that, to me, is a recipe for a bottom five finish.

IDK - it's HARD to end up with 70ish in points in the NHL these days. We're talking 25-35 games under "real" .500 if you're counting OTL's as losses. I don't see this team finishing with 71.3456789 points.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

That Craig Button list has Alex Turcotte at 12. Some people here like him a lot.
I'm set with Kakko, want him bad.

Wingers or centers idc. This draft should be use to stack the O.

Looking at a prob. late 1st rd pick right now. Elmer Soderblom, LW, 17y, 6'6" LOL
I don't think TBL will win the Cup.

We need to get more picks. Although I don't think we have much left to give. Unless we unload Zibs too.
Zucc will get us a late 1st, I don't see any other asset that gets us another one.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That Craig Button list has Alex Turcotte at 12. Some people here like him a lot.
I'm set with Kakko, want him bad.

Wingers or centers idc. This draft should be use to stack the O.

Looking at a prob. late 1st rd pick right now. Elmer Soderblom, LW, 17y, 6'6" LOL
I don't think TBL will win the Cup.

We need to get more picks. Although I don't think we have much left to give. Unless we unload Zibs too.
Zucc will get us a late 1st, I don't see any other asset that gets us another one.

Button is also a horrible evaluator of talent. He doesn't watch club games or at least it appears that way in his rankings almost every year. His determinations seem highly dependent on a couple of international tournaments per year. He also has so many weird determinations where he'll swing wildly in his views of a player for no reason. He had Boqvist at #2 after the Hlinka, and then moved him down a lot after the WJC18 where he won defensemen of the tournament. He was great at both tournaments. There was no reason for such a big move up and then such a big move down. It was just Button throwing another dart at the board.

I would say its best to not give him publicity. TSN does their viewers a huge disservice having this guy appear as an expert. Go to the prospect board, and the majority of the people there would give you a better assessment of the next draft than Button.