Speculation: Roster Building Thread LXXXI - All along the Watch Tower

[True Blue]

I'm giving Miller the credit for Miller.

Yeah....he just simply remade himself amidst the pandemic and after Wisconsin. Of course.

 

[Fitzy]

Yeah....he just simply remade himself amidst the pandemic and after Wisconsin. Of course.

Miller deserves all the credit for keeping himself in such tremendous shape- but yeah, somebody deserves credit for his transition to the NHL.

Fox I think kind of did it on his own, since he has the highest hockey IQ I've ever seen in a defenseman. Miller was expected to have a huge learning curve and commit a bunch of mistakes and we just haven't seen that- he's made fewer gaffes than anyone except Fox. Hell even Lindgren has thrown the puck into his own net.

 

[True Blue]

Miller deserves all the credit for keeping himself in such tremendous shape- but yeah, somebody deserves credit for his transition to the NHL.

Fox I think kind of did it on his own, since he has the highest hockey IQ I've ever seen in a defenseman. Miller was expected to have a huge learning curve and commit a bunch of mistakes and we just haven't seen that- he's made fewer gaffes than anyone except Fox. Hell even Lindgren has thrown the puck into his own net.

Miller is ridiculously athletic. His physical characteristics are off the charts. But there is zero chances that he simply made himself. Same goes for Fox. I don't care how high of an IQ he has. He is trending to elite level by his second season. He did not do that by himself.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Yeah....he just simply remade himself amidst the pandemic and after Wisconsin. Of course.

I'll preemptively thank the Brandon Wheat Kings for developing Braden Wheat Kings.

 

[True Blue]

I'll preemptively thank the Brandon Wheat Kings for developing Braden Wheat Kings.

Of course. And Lulea for Lundkvist

 

[Profet]

See that's kind of what I'm laughing at (broadly speaking, not specific to your post).

When Kakko sucks, its because of Quinn.

When he develops, well it's because that's just him returning to form, or getting older, or returning to Finland.

When Miller is in Wisconsin, it's a tire fire and we need to get him out of there.

When he thrives in the NHL thus far, it's because he was developed in Wisconsin. Or because he's a freak athlete who can overcome (wouldn't that also have applied to the tire fire he was supposedly in as well?).y

When Fox signs he is pegged as top four defenseman, ideally more of a second pair type. When he becomes a first pair defenseman, with a trajectory toward elite territory, it's because of the gifts God gave him.

That's without even going into Chytil's progress, or ADA finding his game before blowing it for himself, or how Lindgren went from marginal prospect in the eyes of many to a steady top-four defenseman.

At some point, we don't have agree with everything Quinn does to give him some credit as well. It doesn't have to be one of the other. It can be a mix.

It's not just because kids got older. Because lord knows if they got older, and didn't progress, there would be posters chomping at the bit to point to it as a Quinn failure.

At some point, we spend so much time hopping around on the the things that supposedly suck, that some of the criticisms really do border on parody.

I understand where you're going... but I also think you're painting a picture of a coach who knows how to coach the defensive end of the ice, but also one that can't seem to figure out how to coach the other end. Of all the prospects you've mentioned, only Chytil is a forward, and even there, limited simple size this season. So we're projecting that his woes are behind him and he has taken a step forward.

I dunno, I'm no great hockey mind, but the offensive zone is a chinese fire drill more than its not. As they enter the zone I can tell you that IF they get off a shot it'll be Smith, Strome, DiGiuseppe, or some other player with a nothing shot taking it off angle or without a screen. This offensive system lives or dies on Panarin or Mika being superstars and just not needing a system.

I'm not impressed.

It's great that the staff can really make the defensive prospects work. But at some point, we're going to need a proper offensive system that these kids can slot into.

 

[Edge]

I think the problem with this is that Miller looks better than last year in college, but has looked pretty good right from the get go, so had literally just a couple of weeks interaction with Quinn in his life. Ditto Fox last year. Guys like Chytil, who may well have turned a corner before his injury or may have just had a couple of good games, have had years with Quinn and shown a little, but nothing that points to an extraordinary development focused skillset. Same with Kakko, he does look a lot more engaged this year but part of that can simply be being a sophomore and growing, yet despite everyone being pretty happy with the play, there’s zero production.

There’s not a ton of evidence of guys who came to Quinn in one state and took major steps over a length of time under him. There are guys who stepped in as rookies and flourished from virtually day one under Quinn (Fox, Lindgren, Miller, Shesterkin) and guys who stepped in as rookies and struggled pretty mightily under Quinn (Chytil, Kakko, Laf, Howden, Lias). We haven’t seen any of the second group really take tangible strides forward. I’m not denying that Chytil looked great for 3 games before getting hurt or that Kakko is looking better, but it hasn’t translated to meaningful progress or production for any of that second group. Quinn’s only “development” successes seem to be guys who showed up “ready”.

I know each draft is different and every player develops at different paces, but Svechnikov had 61 in 68 games last year (74 point pace) as a 19 year old sophomore. Kakko is 20 and is on pace for 19 points over 82 games. Lafreniere is on pace for 5.

Over the last 15 years:

Every first overall combined, stopping just before Crosby and Ovie to not skew the numbers with 100 point seasons, all positions included, has scored 671 points in 941 games. That includes defenseman, disappointments like Yakupov and Hughes, etc. That still comes out to an average pace of 58 points over 82 games.

Every second overal combined, same parameters, combined for 454 points, including guys like Reinhart who had 1 point and got sent down, in 974 games. That’s a 38 point pace.

It is concerning that our #1 and #2 overall are significantly failing not just high expectations based on guys like Matthews or Eichel, but the average across 15 years, including defenseman like Ryan Murray and Erik Johnson and disappointments like Hughes, Patrick and Yakupov.

I think the thing we need to careful of is the illusion that players showed up ready.

The difference in Lindgren from 2018 to 2019 to 2020 to now is noticeable.

The comparisons of Miller to 12 months ago is noticeable. Fox came in at a high level, but I also think that also masks the advances in his game as well.

The challenge with guys who come in performing, is that it's also very easy to overlook how they've become even better. We tend to ret-con their current performance to their starting performance. And even if that starting point was high, I think most people would be surprised if they did a side-by-side comparison of Fox 20 games into his career compared to Fox at the 80 game mark.

I disagree that Chytil has shown little since coming under Quinn, as do I disagree that Howden isn't significantly better than when he came in two years ago. I see changes in Gauthier. I see changes in Lemieux. I see changes in ADA from start to finish.

To your Kakko point, it's not just because they're getting older. And again, I'm seeing people try to argue that both ways.

When Kakko isn't scoring, it's a developmental issue or "clearly there's something wrong here." But when he looks good we chalk that up to just his natural growth.

So, really, we have to decide which one is it?

That's a big part of my issue with the development criticisms. We literally cherry pick the scenarios and tend to go out of our way to find reasons why something is going well, only to put the cause of the negative right back on the coaching staff. I just don't think it works that way.

We've become so fixated and kids getting ruined --- be it by their college coaches, or their AHL coaches, or their NHL coaches, that we've almost taken for granted how they look now compared to how they looked when they started.

Hell, we've even done that with our scouting department. They're all a bunch of idiots, and yet here are these kids playing in the NHL and looking better than the vets. I think figuring out who we want to fire has almost become a sub-hobby around these parts. Depending on the week it's Gorton, the scouting staff, the coaches, the AHL coaches, etc.

Literally in the span of months we've gone from we can't scout/draft, to we can't develop in the minors, to we can't develop in the NHL, to almost claiming our kids draft and develop themselves. Those concepts are very hard to cram into one narrative.

And here's the thing, that narrative is almost exclusive to this board. You don't hear it when you chat with pundits or reporters. You don't hear it from opposing scouts or people with other teams. I think if we ventured outside of the HF bubble, we'd probably be pretty surprised to find how uncommon the stance actually is.

It's not all that different when we talk about guys that this board values higher than the rest of the league, or values lower than the rest of the league. I think we'd be surprised by two things:

1. How much some of the conversation on here is driven by a minority group of people.

2. Just how much of an outlier those talking points truly are.

 

[Avery16]

Miller is 21 years old, was impressive in his limited look with the big club last season, prior to Martin even getting hired. His exposure to Jacques Martin goes back to training camp, *checks calendar* 1.5 months ago. There is barely an association with Martin at this point.

If you want to credit Martin (champion of JMFJ) for Miller's accomplishments, that's your call. It just has very flimsy support, and robs him of his hard work, but sure.

 

[Edge]

I understand where you're going... but I also think you're painting a picture of a coach who knows how to coach the defensive end of the ice, but also one that can't seem to figure out how to coach the other end. Of all the prospects you've mentioned, only Chytil is a forward, and even there, limited simple size this season. So we're projecting that his woes are behind him and he has taken a step forward.

I dunno, I'm no great hockey mind, but the offensive zone is a chinese fire drill more than its not. As they enter the zone I can tell you that IF they get off a shot it'll be Smith, Strome, DiGiuseppe, or some other player with a nothing shot taking it off angle or without a screen. This offensive system lives or dies on Panarin or Mika being superstars and just not needing a system.

I'm not impressed.

It's great that the staff can really make the defensive prospects work. But at some point, we're going to need a proper offensive system that these kids can slot into.

In that same vein, we've seen guys post career offensive numbers on the offensive side of things. So the concept of developing offense, isn't totally lost on us. In fact, heading into this season, I don't know if anyone thought it was a concern area. Yet here we are.

Personally, I think this season underscores just how much of a keystone player Zibanejad is on this roster and how literally everything else falls into place around him.

We've now seen both extremes the last two years. But I find myself wondering if the 2021 version of Zibanejad is performing like the 2019-20 version, how different the conversation looks.

Now having said that, the offense is simply not working. It looks confused, it doesn't look forceful and it needs a major change. So I'm under no illusions that what we're seeing is a good thing.

 

[Synergy27]

I think he deserves at least some credit for helping them along.

I mean, if we're going to blame him for guys performing shitty, isn't it a two-way street?

You tell me, how does Miller look compared to last year?

How does Fox look compared to how he was projected?

I'm going to jump in here because we disagree and it's fun when we disagree.

It is very hard for people (including myself) to square the lack of early returns on Kakko and Laf. They are the highest draft picks and most highly rated prospects most of us have ever seen, and that comes with expectations.

All of the guys that are doing well now did not step in at 18. There was a reason for that. Yes the coaching staff deserves credit for guys like Lindgren, Miller, and Buch (I'm not giving credit for ADA because that situation is an abject disaster right now), but you also have to apportion some of the credit for those guys to things that happened elsewhere, and well, just time.

We discussed nuance in another thread recently. The nuance wrt Laf and Kakko as I see it is exactly that the entirety of their senior career (obviously very early in both) has been spent with Quinn. The fact that things aren't going well yet makes it very easy to pin the blame on Quinn.

Given their draft pedigree and success at lower levels, it is not unreasonable to expect that both of them would be at least as good as Buch is now, for example. If we agree that that is the case (hell, maybe we don't), the question then becomes what is Quinn doing to hold them back? If he's treating them the same way as lesser prospects that need years to grow into their potential, there is something wrong.

These kids are either not as good/ready as everyone was led to believe they are, or they are being handled incorrectly. Sure a little puck luck might have softened the narrative a bit, but in both player's cases said puck luck would have brought us to "just a little disappointed" , not "wow, these kids are amazing" from where we are currently - "holy shit is it possible that these kids are busts?".

All of this is magnified by the Lias Andersson debacle, and the huge unknown that is Kravtsov.

 

[cheech70]

 

[Edge]

Miller is 21 years old, was impressive in his limited look with the big club last season, prior to Martin even getting hired. His exposure to Jacques Martin goes back to training camp, *checks calendar* 1.5 months ago. There is barely an association with Martin at this point.

If you want to credit Martin (champion of JMFJ) for Miller's accomplishments, that's your call. It just has very flimsy support, and robs him of his hard work, but sure.

I definitely think he's put in the work, but you also need someone to work with you. It's not a solitary process.

He doesn't just pop on the tv, watch game footage and learn how to make certain decisions. If coaching staff is doing its job right, it's taking natural ability and hard work and providing some focus for it.

I don't think coaches "make" players, so much as they provide the environment for them grow and thrive.

I think the Rangers have at least done that. Or, at worst, they certainly haven't ruined that.

Ultimately it's the concept of ruining young players that feels the most far-fetched. I can understand someone more or less being agnostic to the coaching staff on the issue of young player development. I think it's when someone starts viewing them as a negative influence that we're probably pushing it.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

If Eichel becomes available and Gorton wants him I like our chances.

 

[Avery16]

Quoting Friedman on a radio show, apparently

 

[Synergy27]

Posted in wrong thread...

 

[wafflepadsave]

Kakko looked like a kid in a Costco that lost his mother last year.

LaF is nowhere near that.

Totally agree.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I think the problem with this is that Miller looks better than last year in college, but has looked pretty good right from the get go, so had literally just a couple of weeks interaction with Quinn in his life. Ditto Fox last year. Guys like Chytil, who may well have turned a corner before his injury or may have just had a couple of good games, have had years with Quinn and shown a little, but nothing that points to an extraordinary development focused skillset. Same with Kakko, he does look a lot more engaged this year but part of that can simply be being a sophomore and growing, yet despite everyone being pretty happy with the play, there’s zero production.

There’s not a ton of evidence of guys who came to Quinn in one state and took major steps over a length of time under him. There are guys who stepped in as rookies and flourished from virtually day one under Quinn (Fox, Lindgren, Miller, Shesterkin) and guys who stepped in as rookies and struggled pretty mightily under Quinn (Chytil, Kakko, Laf, Howden, Lias). We haven’t seen any of the second group really take tangible strides forward. I’m not denying that Chytil looked great for 3 games before getting hurt or that Kakko is looking better, but it hasn’t translated to meaningful progress or production for any of that second group. Quinn’s only “development” successes seem to be guys who showed up “ready”.

I know each draft is different and every player develops at different paces, but Svechnikov had 61 in 68 games last year (74 point pace) as a 19 year old sophomore. Kakko is 20 and is on pace for 19 points over 82 games. Lafreniere is on pace for 5.

Over the last 15 years:

Every first overall combined, stopping just before Crosby and Ovie to not skew the numbers with 100 point seasons, all positions included, has scored 671 points in 941 games. That includes defenseman, disappointments like Yakupov and Hughes, etc. That still comes out to an average pace of 58 points over 82 games.

Every second overal combined, same parameters, combined for 454 points, including guys like Reinhart who had 1 point and got sent down, in 974 games. That’s a 38 point pace.

It is concerning that our #1 and #2 overall are significantly failing not just high expectations based on guys like Matthews or Eichel, but the average across 15 years, including defenseman like Ryan Murray and Erik Johnson and disappointments like Hughes, Patrick and Yakupov.

I agree especially with Fox and Miller stepping in right away and thriving. Miller got out of a bad system and was put in a position to succeed. Great. That's not a knock on our staff or evidence of development.

I think Quinn operates within that firm structure. Play his way. That's fine. I think that is the bread and butter for defenseman in general. Play safe, be repetitious, play structured. Maybe that's why ADA took a while to adapt and gain trust, he's not a defensive defenseman. He freewheels too much.

Ironically, this might be why the young forwards take so long to turn a corner. They don't get put in a position to succeed like the d men. Defensive assignments, lower skilled line mates, less minutes to get a groove, no pp time. They are used to being creative and having more freedom, but now they have to think way more and play safer.

I just think the jury is out. Again, "ruin" is too strong a word but I don't think we can conclude Quinn is successful. Clearly he is building them from the defensive side on out. I hope it works. But maybe I'm just being too hypocritical here in the middle.

 

[pld459666]

I would trade it unprotected in a package for Eichel.

Think I may want Leon over Jack

 

[shnagle]

I think a big problem is people's expectation for these young players. People said Kakko was the "most ready" NHL prospect. Laf was the best #1 since McDavid. That sets the bar extremely high for these kids, and also puts a great amount of pressure on them to perform. Everyone here wanted so badly to have our own Crosby, McDavid or Mckinnon. When they don't meet those expectations immediately people need to blame someone be it scouts, coaches or environment. I'll be the first one to admit I had higher hopes for Kakko last year but he appears to have turned the corner and arguably has been our best forward this year. Laf may not have a great rookie year and yes I'll be disappointed. Does that make him a "bust" or is he being "ruined" by the coaches. I doubt it. Every kid develops differently and I think people just need to have a little patience. If you are frustrated try to imagine what Laf and Kakko will be in two or three years rather than worrying about their "growing pains" of today.

 

[Trxjw]

Pretty clear at this point that Lafreneire developed Miller over the fall at that rich family's outdoor rink in Connecticut but did so at the expense of developing himself.

 

[UnSandvich]

Pretty clear at this point that Lafreneire developed Miller over the fall at that rich family's outdoor rink in Connecticut but did so at the expense of developing himself.

Damn, i was just about to post that lol

 

[wafflepadsave]

I think Georgiev's observations were correct. I think opposing teams expect us to force the pass, or make one pass too many. They anticipate it. And, as we've seen, they pounce on it.

I think there are player types that we are still missing. I think we could use a slot shooter, someone who gets into the high priced real estate. I think we need more North-South types on the roster, to balance out the East-West types. I do think we need someone doesn't necessarily have to carry the puck through the zone, but is focused on getting his shot off. I think we need more of the swarming, pesky personality that we were starting to develop a few years back. I think we've shown a bit more of that of late.

As it turns out, coaches didn’t have to watch 31 teams games film. Now they need to worry about teams within our division. Maybe they figured out how the Rangers had success and stopped it. The same old plays aren’t there any more. Most games around the nhl seem to be lower scoring.
Why? Because there’s not the traditional 3 months of lots of penalties called and looser defense being played.

It’s crunch time from day one and that doesn’t fit the Rangers progression. A lot of us thought it would take some time to get it together but there hasn’t been that normal easing into the season.

There’s no trade out there to right the ship currently so they’ll have to ride it out till everyone is healthy and functioning. I’ll take some 2nds and 3rds at the deadline and regroup.
Definitely agree with those that want more ice time for the younger guys but management doesn’t want to get smoked every game. We will know in a month if they come together and play well or do we need other vets.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I think a big problem is people's expectation for these young players. People said Kakko was the "most ready" NHL prospect. Laf was the best #1 since McDavid. That sets the bar extremely high for these kids, and also puts a great amount of pressure on them to perform. Everyone here wanted so badly to have our own Crosby, McDavid or Mckinnon. When they don't meet those expectations immediately people need to blame someone be it scouts, coaches or environment. I'll be the first one to admit I had higher hopes for Kakko last year but he appears to have turned the corner and arguably has been our best forward this year. Laf may not have a great rookie year and yes I'll be disappointed. Does that make him a "bust" or is he being "ruined" by the coaches. I doubt it. Every kid develops differently and I think people just need to have a little patience. If you are frustrated try to imagine what Laf and Kakko will be in two or three years rather than worrying about their "growing pains" of today.

Laf isn't even reaching Yakupov levels right now. So give me a break with the whole "our expectations were too high" nonsense.

 

[kovazub94]

I think we can critique Quinn on a variety of issues with different results and opinions. I think @pld459666 more or less captured this in his post. Heck, even Uncle Larry did this in a recent article.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing, black or white.

It can be shades of gray, or good in the bad/bad in the good, yin and yang.

There are things Quinn can and should be questioned on. He's not above reproach and some of his decisions are very easy to disagree with.

But I can't say the handling of youth has been bad. In fact, I think we see the players responding to it. Even Gauthier --- you can clearly "see" that he is applying what he's been instructed to do.

One thing that always had happened in the past is when something would just START aggravating me, Quinn would promptly address it. Either my memory is failing me or this recent (let’s call it) Kreider debacle is the first time when I lost patience before Quinn were able to address it.

 

[wafflepadsave]

Kakko is taking a lot of long distance almost buzzer beater type shots, he’s had a couple bad deflections in the slot, but hasn’t had a ton of clean looks. He needs another half second of separation to get clean looks and he’ll go on a scoring tear.

So will that be from his teammates or himself creating more time and space? I don’t know honestly.