Speculation: Roster Building Thread LIX: To trade or not to trade CK?

[DanielBrassard]

Are we only allowed 1 buyout after the arbitration cases are settled?

Or do we get one for each player who has filed?

3 over the lifetime of the CBA, and we haven't used 1 so we should be able to buyout 3.

 

[17futurecap]

If they had no value, should have just bought out Strome in June, then Vlad in July.

Vlad caps hits would be 1,333,333 in the next two seasons and Strome would have been 433,333 and 533,333 in the next two seasons.

Would have opened up 5.3 million in cap space for this season, send Smith and Beleskey to Hartford to save another 2 million.

Keep Kreider, and then move him at the deadline as a rental to a team that wants to go for it.

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

Saying Smith can be waived is like saying I can ask Margot Robbie on a date. While technically true, nothing would come from either of those events. Nobody is picking up a replacement-ish dman @ 2* 4.35 off waivers

Hey man, don't count yourself out! If Dak Shepard can get Kristen Bell and Snozz Berries got Christina Hendricks then anyone has a shot.

 

[mas0764]

Dom from The Athletic wrote about bad contracts today.

View attachment 245133



The Rangers created more headaches for themselves.

It's not nearly as bad as it looks. We have a ton of ELCs. There are some good or at least neutral contracts among the forwards. The "bad" contracts among the forwards are all one year left - Nieves, McKegg, Names, and Strome.

And then the defensive contracts are bad: Staal, Shattenkirk, and Smith, and they all expire in 2 years. He has Skjei down as a bad contract but let's hope he rebounds a bit with Trouba and makes that deal look better.

The key is making good deals from here on out, and they'll be fine in the next 2 years.

The Rangers problem in this ranking is they have very few contracts that are good long term -- but mostly because they have very few long term contracts right now.

There are some teams ahead of them in the rankings like the Sharks or Flyers who have loads of long term bad contracts, but also some value contracts. I'm not sure I'd agree that it means the Sharks or Flyers should be ahead of us.

 

[mas0764]

Fans: With the Panarin signing and drafting Kakko, we've sped up our rebuild to where our window could open as soon as 2 years from now.
Writer: The belief is that they've sped up their rebuild, but they're still a couple of years away.

Derp.

Also, there's a big difference between payroll structure and roster structure allowing you to contend.

Not on this board, but I think in some places there may be an expectation that we make the playoffs this year.

And frankly, I don't think it's impossible. Though I wouldn't put money on it.

 

[mas0764]

Someone please inform Larry that there is no cap crunch. We will have 20 million in cap space after the TV deal.

Who has argued there's no cap crunch this year?

Everyone has said this year is tight.

Larry didn't say anything about in 3 years when there's a new TV deal.

Keep peddling your agenda, it's not being purchased here.

 

[mas0764]

Brooks also live in a fantasy land where Kreider is still on the roster and extended. Can't see that as an option anymore. Trade Kreider for futures and you could buy out Smith.

Let's not even mention that with arb dates still to come, teams aren't going to go long term on all their players. Could open some space for other teams to make moves.

I would expect little on Namestnikov while teams are working on their own RFAs and potentially going for more than a short term deal. They can't limit themselves in talks with players that they are committed to for the long run. You can trade for that player on a 1 year deal after, especially if you have some money to spare.

Yeah, this path remains feasible and not really problematic for the Rangers.

But some have to keep insisting that the sky is falling until everyone agrees with them. I have a feeling this will be a long two years.

 

[mas0764]

That doesn’t clear hardly any salary, plus you’ve lost a pick.

A sixth round pick.

And instead I have Panarin and Trouba.

 

[mas0764]

I mentioned this a couple days ago but it is getting very late in the summer to not have this **** resolved. We have ALOT to do during a time everyone starts disappearing for summer break in the league. I’m amazed we still haven’t hired a coaching staff for Hartford. And I’m even more amazed we haven’t finalized the trouba deal yet.

I’m shocked that Kreider and Namestnikov we’re still Rangers after the draft.

I’m amazed we didn’t buy out a dman during the first buyout period.

Gorton needs to do better here. He has not done a great job with contracts outside of Mika’s who at the time was pretty much a fair market contract. Skjei getting that big deal was premature.

The smith and shattenkirk deals are choking us.

2 years to spooner and namestnikov made no sense then and make even less sense now. Choking us. 8 mil on the books for Strome namestnikov and Spooner right now. Crazy.

As usual we’re paying our worst players the most of our money. Can we ever have our best players be the guys earning the most? Hopefully panarin changes this trend

This is true. I do not understand why they gave Namestnikov and Spooner those deals.

 

[mas0764]

As I’ve mentioned One of the bigger reasons to keep smith is that we should be able to carry one less guy if he can be a 4th line winger and 7th dman that plays left or right side. He’s also waivable while shattenkirk is not.

It’s very clear the crunch is right now. We need the 5 mil this year from the shattenkirk contract.

Is there a buyout window next summer? What if we buy out Shattenkirk now, and Smith next year? I assume the savings on Smith are even larger next year, thus helping us with the increased hit on Shattenkirk in year 2. Could be the best of both worlds, so to speak.

 

[GAGLine]

Is there a buyout window next summer? What if we buy out Shattenkirk now, and Smith next year? I assume the savings on Smith are even larger next year, thus helping us with the increased hit on Shattenkirk in year 2. Could be the best of both worlds, so to speak.

There's a regular buyout period every June. The 2nd buyout window is dependent on arbitration cases. If ADA and/or Lemieux get a 1 year deal, they will be arbitration eligible next summer. If one of them files, we can open the 2nd window too.

 

[Leetch3]

He’ll play plenty take some games from Fox take some games from tony I’m sure. Staal, Hajek. He’ll get plenty of games

they don't need waivers so if you are rotating fox and rykov then send them back and forth to hartford to play there when they aren't playing in ny. kids that don't require waivers should not be sitting with any regularity.

 

[mas0764]

Ugh

I know.... there's a serious chance of this happening. We may lose our most recently signed player, Kakko, to free agency.

And if not him.... our next most recently signed player, Panarin.

We are f***ed.

 

[Leetch3]

I know.... there's a serious chance of this happening. We may lose our most recently signed player, Kakko, to free agency.

And if not him.... our next most recently signed player, Panarin.

We are f***ed.

we aren't over the cap until the 4 RFAs are signed so those would be the most recent contracts.

but correction the league would void the contracts but it doesn't change the players free agency status, I misspoke on that. if they, let say, voided trouba's contract he would still be a RFA but would be unsigned again. of course the scenario will never actually play out...

 

[JC704]

The second year of the Shattenkirk buyout will hamstring them next year. Don't do it. Buying out Staal is enticing, but again, the math sucks. Buying out Smith is the option. Deangelo is brought back, and Shatty/Deangelo/Fox are all rotated. If Shatty comes into camp healthy/in shape, I don't think it's out of the question to see him have a good season.

Trading Namestnikov, and trading (with assets) or buying out Smith gets them to where they need to retain everybody for next season and compete for a playoff spot. Staal is awful, but if Hajek plays well again -- and I expect Skjei bounces back playing with Trouba -- then you just bury him on the third pair and play him with one of those RHD above.

 

[GAGLine]

The second year of the Shattenkirk buyout will hamstring them next year. Don't do it. Buying out Staal is enticing, but again, the math sucks. Buying out Smith is the option.

If Shattenkirk is bought out, we save 5.167 mil this year. Trade Names @ 50% and we should have enough to sign our RFAs.

Next year, Shatty's cap hit goes up by 4.6 mil, however, we save:

• 2 mil from Names retention
• 2.5 mil from Girardi buyout
• 825k from Beleskey (buried)

That's a total of 5.325 mil, which is more than enough to cover the increase in Shatty's buyout.

It's also likely that we will save significant cap by trading Kreider at the deadline, if not sooner. Strome and/or Fast may also be gone.

Next year will not be a problem if we buy out Shattenkirk.

 

[Tawnos]

If Shattenkirk is bought out, we save 5.167 mil this year. Trade Names @ 50% and we should have enough to sign our RFAs.

Next year, Shatty's cap hit goes up by 4.6 mil, however, we save:

• 2 mil from Names retention
• 2.5 mil from Girardi buyout
• 825k from Beleskey (buried)

That's a total of 5.325 mil, which is more than enough to cover the increase in Shatty's buyout.

It's also likely that we will save significant cap by trading Kreider at the deadline, if not sooner. Strome and/or Fast may also be gone.

Next year will not be a problem if we buy out Shattenkirk.

I'm really not a fan of the Shattenkirk buyout, but you make a good point. I also think the Staal and Smith buyouts are significantly better next year, just because they only carry over 1 more year.

 

[Barnaby]

I don't think the Rangers deal for Trouba without having an idea for at least the framework of a contract. I think they want to clear cap before they ink him though as a leverage deal in trades. Calling someone up when your 4 million over isn't a great starting place in negotiations.

Trade Names... trade a pick to dump a d-man, but keep Strome. I think he's got talent and is a high character guy.

 

[GAGLine]

Trade Names... trade a pick to dump a d-man, but keep Strome. I think he's got talent and is a high character guy.

Any of Shatty, Staal or Smith would take at least a 1st round pick to dump, assuming any team was willing to take on the contract for 2 years. Marleau cost a 1st rounder and he only had 1 year left and actual salary.

 

[Avery16]

A sixth round pick.

And instead I have Panarin and Trouba.

You’re missing the five other moves between that one and keeping both Panarin AND Trouba.

 

[Barnaby]

Any of Shatty, Staal or Smith would take at least a 1st round pick to dump, assuming any team was willing to take on the contract for 2 years. Marleau cost a 1st rounder and he only had 1 year left and actual salary.

Maybe yes, maybe no. I don't know the contract structures. Rangers usually seem to front load for later leverage. The second rounder is tied up with Fox I believe. If I could do Smith with a 3rd and a mid prospect then I'd do it - maybe that has some value to a team like Ott. I think Names has about a 3rd round value at this point... have to wait and see.

 

[Calad]

Yes but we were discussing Shattenkirk. His buy out is brutal so if you're going to buy our someone, it should be Smith

Help me understand why Shattenkirk's buyout is so much more brutal than Smiths. The reason we are looking to buyout a contract is because we need space to be compliant this season. The following season an extra 20 million comes off the books. The season after that Lundqvist and the rest of the D will come off, not to mention the new TV deal and Seattle expansion money, we are looking at gaining ~25m from UFA contracts expiring on top of whatever cap increase we get with the new NHL revenue. In order to sign all of our RFAs (presuming we keep all) to reasonable length extensions we need to find ~7m more in cap space.

Focus on the column marked "Savings", any negative number denotes an extra cost (which are the dead caphit years of the contract).Comparing the 2 buyouts, we get nearly 2 million extra cap space this season from buying out Shattenkirk over Smith. The following season (where we gain ~20mill) Shattenkirk buyout will have a higher cap hit of 650k, but considering the amount of ELCs we will be bringing in to replace those expiring contracts we will have a very comfortable amount of room to work with so this difference is negligible. The following two seasons we will have dead cap hit of 1.43m (Shattenkirk) vs 1.15m (Smith). This is a 300k difference, and again with the amount of extra cap space we might gain in that 2nd offseason with the TV deal and expansion, I would argue that the 300k difference between the two contracts is even more insignificant.

Ultimately, if the purpose of a buyout is to create cap space right now, then Shattenkirk IMO is the easy candidate. Saving 5.1m on the cap with his buyout lets us trade Namestnikov at 50% for something of actual value, or Strome's 3.1, and not feel forced to trade Kreider's entire cap hit at a discount just to be compliant. Buying out Smith forces us to find and additional 4m+ in cap space to clear, which I would guess really ties Gorton's hand in the trade market.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Help me understand why Shattenkirk's buyout is so much more brutal than Smiths. The reason we are looking to buyout a contract is because we need space to be compliant this season. The following season an extra 20 million comes off the books. The season after that Lundqvist and the rest of the D will come off, not to mention the new TV deal and Seattle expansion money, we are looking at gaining ~25m from UFA contracts expiring on top of whatever cap increase we get with the new NHL revenue. In order to sign all of our RFAs (presuming we keep all) to reasonable length extensions we need to find ~7m more in cap space.

Focus on the column marked "Savings", any negative number denotes an extra cost (which are the dead caphit years of the contract).Comparing the 2 buyouts, we get nearly 2 million extra cap space this season from buying out Shattenkirk over Smith. The following season (where we gain ~20mill) Shattenkirk buyout will have a higher cap hit of 650k, but considering the amount of ELCs we will be bringing in to replace those expiring contracts we will have a very comfortable amount of room to work with so this difference is negligible. The following two seasons we will have dead cap hit of 1.43m (Shattenkirk) vs 1.15m (Smith). This is a 300k difference, and again with the amount of extra cap space we might gain in that 2nd offseason with the TV deal and expansion, I would argue that the 300k difference between the two contracts is even more insignificant.

Ultimately, if the purpose of a buyout is to create cap space right now, then Shattenkirk IMO is the easy candidate. Saving 5.1m on the cap with his buyout lets us trade Namestnikov at 50% for something of actual value, or Strome's 3.1, and not feel forced to trade Kreider's entire cap hit at a discount just to be compliant. Buying out Smith forces us to find and additional 4m+ in cap space to clear, which I would guess really ties Gorton's hand in the trade market.

I look at more than just the current season. The final year of the initial contract is always the toughest with a buy out. It usually includes the cap hit of signing bonuses etc. We don't have any big contracts coming off the books in 2020, only in 2021. Buying out Shattenkirk makes no sense to me. He's also a better player than Smith.

 

[Kovalev27]

they don't need waivers so if you are rotating fox and rykov then send them back and forth to hartford to play there when they aren't playing in ny. kids that don't require waivers should not be sitting with any regularity.

That’s fine too

 

[Kovalev27]

If Shattenkirk is bought out, we save 5.167 mil this year. Trade Names @ 50% and we should have enough to sign our RFAs.

Next year, Shatty's cap hit goes up by 4.6 mil, however, we save:

• 2 mil from Names retention
• 2.5 mil from Girardi buyout
• 825k from Beleskey (buried)

That's a total of 5.325 mil, which is more than enough to cover the increase in Shatty's buyout.

It's also likely that we will save significant cap by trading Kreider at the deadline, if not sooner. Strome and/or Fast may also be gone.

Next year will not be a problem if we buy out Shattenkirk.

This is what I’m saying. We don’t need the extra money next year. We can afford to sit on it. This is the year that we need to worry about.