Speculation: Roster Building Thread II (2022-23): The Puck is Prepared to be Mounted

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Barbashev was someone I used to harp on years ago because he clearly had talent above the 4th line role he had been relegated to in St Louis. Complete player, lots of different facets to his game. It wasnt too surprising that he broke out a bit with some top 6 minutes last year. Unfortunately that ship has sailed, he'll probably be making +4 million now. As a rental, you figure he's probably costing a 2nd rounder. He'd be an awesome add.

This is just my personal opinion, I'm not all that crazy about giving up the 2nd in this draft either though. If Drury can swing deadline deals this year with picks down the road I'm not too bothered by it. We're already missing picks in the 4th and 5th this year, less deadline ammo. One thing that got overlooked a bit last year because the high end talent was kinda meh is that the 2nd round was still really solid. It was really surprising to me to see Greene, Hutson and Goyette land at the bottom of the 2nd last year. 2 of them landed right before Sykora. And they weren't the only ones, there were a number, they just happened to land real close to the end. Go watch Lane Hutson for BU, that kid has legitimate potential to be a superstar. I'm seeing guys like Jayden Perron, Gracyn Sawchyn, Gavin McCarthy, Strathmann, etc.. being ranked in the 2nd or later and I'm saying to myself, if it came down to it would I rather a rental or a chance at drafting one of them.. its an easy choice for me.
I’d be willing to part with a 2nd for a rental. Especially if we’re retaining our 1sts
 
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Dadonov's shooing percentage in the past 3 years:
15% in 69 games
14.6% in 55 games
11.3% in 78 games
6.5% in 41 games

Which one is the outlier?

Let's look at 4 players. These are all even strength numbers

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]21/22 CF% rel[/TD]
[TD]21/22 FF% rel[/TD]
[TD]21/22
G/60[/TD]
[TD]21/22 A/60[/TD]
[TD]22/23 CF% rel[/TD]
[TD]22/23 FF% rel[/TD]
[TD]22/23 G/60[/TD]
[TD]22/23 A/60[/TD]
[TD]22/23 Point Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player A[/TD]
[TD]2.1*[/TD]
[TD]5.2*[/TD]
[TD]0.9*[/TD]
[TD]2.8*[/TD]
[TD]8.1[/TD]
[TD]7.9[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player B[/TD]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]9.3[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]0.4[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player C[/TD]
[TD]-6.4[/TD]
[TD]-6.6[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[TD]0.8[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player D[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[TD]1.1[/TD]
[TD]2.8[/TD]
[TD]2.2[/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[TD]0.8[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Player E[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]3.3[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

* - Small sample size



Player A = Leivo
Player B = Puljujaarvi
Player C = Barbashev
Player D = Dadonov
Player E = O'Reilly


The issue I have with most of the larger names is they really aren't guys who will move the needle by themselves and the prices that are being thrown around are whacky. If any of these guys cost more than a 3rd round pick I'm looking elsewhere. There are PLENTY of options out there who will improve this teams overall depth for fractions of the cost.

You're comparing all strengths stuff again.

Dadonov 5v5 sh% the last four years:

9.0
16.4
8.4
7.3

Before that it was higher but he was also younger/better. He's been in this range 3 of the last 4 years. He'd be a fine add for cheap though.

It's the lowest but hardly way out of line. His PP sh% is irrelevant as he won't have a relevant PP role here anyway.
 
He is a major part of the problem.

No one should care that he can fatten up his stats against bad teams. I’m pretty sure that his ES production against playoff competition is either equal or worse than those 2 and they’ve had their struggles with performance and/or luck this year.

Not what you want out of the second highest paid player in the league.
I can kind of figure this out.

The Line Tool on Natural Stat Trick has spreads vs different opponents.

I can just set up a line of Panarin and Cuylle, look at "Panarin w/o Cuylle" and that's basically Panarin's entire season. He's played 10 seconds with Cuylle.

I got tricks. I will report my findings.
 
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I dream of a day when we don't have to add two wingers at the deadline to have a functioning forward corps.

We'd have to get a lot better at roster construction

It's whatever- most teams are in the same situation
 
Barbashev and Erne. Middle 6 forwards who are tough to play against.

Panarin-Mika-Barbashev
Kreider-Trocheck-Erne
Kid Line
Vesey-Goodrow-Cuylle

Barbashev and Erne suck. might as well just keep Vesey in the top 6.
 
Again I think the difference that will end up benefitting us in the long run is the fact that unlike from 2012-2015 when we were talking about needing to fill a need in star-power, for which the expensive Nash, Richards, Yandle, and MSL acquisitions were- now we have the star power and mostly need to provide depth for the roster. This is much cheaper on the rental budget.
 
Again I think the difference that will end up benefitting us in the long run is the fact that unlike from 2012-2015 when we were talking about needing to fill a need in star-power, for which the expensive Nash, Richards, Yandle, and MSL acquisitions were- now we have the star power and mostly need to provide depth for the roster. This is much cheaper on the rental budget.
We currently have 8 players who have the talent to take over a playoff series.
Now the point of the deadline isnt' to acquire someone who can do that. Now its to ensure we don't have any weakness in our lines and bottom pair.
 
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Ok so, it's on me to choose a relevant sample of "playoff competition."

I have chosen our games against Carolina, New Jersey, Boston, and Vegas. Carolina and NJ are the two best teams in the division. Boston because Boston. Vegas because they're good, we've played them twice, and we beat up on them - I kind of want to be fair to Panarin to get an accurate sample, so I chose a team we scored against.

In those games, our imaginary line of Panarin-Cuylle (so just Panarin) scored 4 goals at even strength and conceded 6 in 8 total games.

In those games Panarin has 5 even strength points according to NHL.com on 4 even strength goals, which is fun. The only way that happens is on an empty netter, which NHL.com considers even strength and NST does not. I agree with NST so we'll call it 4 in 8 games.

That's an ES p/g rate of 0.50 against Panarin's at-large ES p/g rate of 0.63.

For the second sample I have chosen Columbus, Anahiem (again, we played them twice), the Islanders, and Montreal.

This is where the exercise is flawed because we haven't played anybody a lot. The schedule has been really balanced. And "playoff team" is a rolling definition. I digress.

In those 8 games, Panairn and Not Will Cuylle have scored 3 ES goals and conceded ELEVEN!! He has a point on all three goals because of course he does (well, 4, but empty netters don't f***ing count NHL.com!!)

He completely sucks against the four non-playoff teams I selected!

That's a p/g rate of 0.37, well below the at-large rate, and also well below the rate against the good sample.

Upon finding that, I went back to see where the 0.63 ES p/g came from and it's against a hodgepodge of teams.

Detroit and Arizona are high on the list of Panarin's 5v5 victims but so are Minnesota, Jersey, and Florida

There's nobody he's feasted on because he only has six 3-point games. He only has twelve multi-point games.

My conclusion: it's not a quality of competition issue, he's just not having big games like he used to. It's a point here and a point there.
 
It would be nice if Drury could find a couple of guys who could add to the teams overall possession of the puck and their ability to retrieve it when it is not in their possession.

There is something to be said for being tough to play against by being able to maintain and recover the puck. The team has skilled forwards and players who can create chances.

I'd be looking for guys like that moreso than a physical presence.
 
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Nash suffered another concussion as a Bruin and he never played another NHL game.
True, but he like Kane now was a shell of his former self by the time Boston added him for their playoffs. Basically a glorified role-player at that point. Kane could also be one injury away from retiring.
 
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I dream of a day when we don't have to add two wingers at the deadline to have a functioning forward corps.
I don't think it is that far off. The reason why this team needs two wingers is because we're still waiting on the back half of the rebuild/retool to kick in. Even if Lafreniere and Kakko (as you mentioned), became legit top liners, you're still working with the Vesey and Goodrow in the top 9 and you don't win championships that way.

A big reason why is because of Fox and Shesterkin becoming elite faster than I think anyone could have imagined. Also that Miller, Lindgren, and to a lesser extent Schneider have become legit top 4 types.

The good news is that guys like Cuylle, Berard, and Othmann are not far off from being in the NHL, so those ELCs will help a lot.

I'd love for Drury to try and find deals like Tampa did where they get guys for multiple years on cheap deals where a rebuilding team eats 50% of the cap over 2 seasons, but I don't see many viable options. I think Nashville falling out of it would be the best thing to happen. I'd be calling for Neiderreiter to fill that RW void on the team. Get him at 2M for this run and next? Figure out the cap in the offseason.
 
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I don’t think they will but anyone who thinks they won’t take a big swing in the next few weeks (barring a collapse of course) is kidding themselves.

Dadonov, Erne, Barbashev - Like I can see them coming away with one of these guys (Erne fits in several ways) but I can’t see them limiting themselves to just this group of player.


I think he deals one and keeps one fwiw. I just hope that Patrick Kane is not involved.

It’d be nice if Panarin could go back to being Hartemi, that would be the biggest deadline pickup
Not a big swing name mentioned here.
 
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