Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXVIII

[Edge]

I go for the $25 bottle of wine, $50 bag of weed, and $25 worth of white castles.

But as far as the team, I look at it this way, they're solid on right D, they could use another guy on LD (maybe Deangelo slides over), and are solid in goal. I believe Zib and Chytil can be your one, two punch down the middle. But what they really lack are big, strong, fast wingers. This is what I keep coming back to. This is my concern with moving Kreider. Then add in everything else he brings to the team - the screening, the speed, the locker room presence, the role model to the younger players. His departure creates a vacuum. Yes, in theory you could find a guy for a little less money that does a little less, but why? Why ruin the chemistry he has with your #1 center ? Seems short sided to me to save 500k a year.

Well, the $500k was an example, but it could be a million with the numbers be floating right now. And that million in and of itself isn't inherently the problem, it's whether that million is the ability to add a guy at the TDL, or contributes to the ability to squeeze in a $4 million LD, in addition to the ability to carry the LW at $6 million.

So to your point, yes chemistry is very important. And that importance must be weighed against other factors when building a team --- including how one budgets a finite amount of resources. You can't nickle and dime every decision, but you also have to careful about expenses creeping into your budget because they are smaller.

But again, that's why I think his odds go up the lower he comes down on his price. The closer he comes into a price point, say $6 million, the more he negates the option of having a cheaper, but less effective replacement in that same role.

The question is what kind of gap are we talking about? If his price is $7 million, and the Rangers don't want to go above $6 million, it's kind a of a moot point. If he's starting at $6.75, and the Rangers are at $6.25, that could be a game-changer.

We don't really know, so it's hard to say exactly where that breakpoint is. If I had to guess, I'd say it would require both sides closing a gap that is probably closer to $1 million a year, and maybe upwards of $10 million on the total deal, than it is closing a gap $500k per year, or less, and only $3 million on the total deal.

 

[EdJovanovski]

McDavid is out 2-3 weeks. These injuries are really starting to help us!

Hey Edmonton could we interest you in 1C Ryan Strome?

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Well, the $500k was an example, but it could be a million with the numbers be floating right now. And that million in and of itself isn't inherently the problem, it's whether that million is the ability to add a guy at the TDL, or contributes to the ability to squeeze in a $4 million LD, in addition to the ability to carry the LW at $6 million.

So to your point, yes chemistry is very important. And that importance must be weighed against other factors when building a team --- including how one budgets a finite amount of resources. You can't nickle and dime every decision, but you also have to careful about expenses creeping into your budget because they are smaller.

But again, that's why I think his odds go up the lower he comes down on his price. The closer he comes into a price point, say $6 million, the more he negates the option of having a cheaper, but less effective replacement in that same role.

The question is what kind of gap are we talking about? If his price is $7 million, and the Rangers don't want to go above $6 million, it's kind a of a moot point. If he's starting at $6.75, and the Rangers are at $6.25, that could be a game-changer.

We don't really know, so it's hard to say exactly where that breakpoint is. If I had to guess, I'd say it would require both sides closing a gap that is probably closer to $1 million a year, and maybe upwards of $10 million on the total deal, than it is closing a gap $500k per year, or less, and only $3 million on the total deal.

Totally agree. Again, I think they are definitely going to move him in the next few weeks and the only chance of him staying will mean he's willing to take less here than he'd get on the open market. Not great odds.

 

[broadwayblue]

Part of the deal is taking a contract (Galchenyuk) off their hands that they didn't want. Zucker's a good player and he should put up good numbers playing with Crosby and/or Malkin. That said the Pens make the trade more for the now than for the future. They may be able to turn around in a couple years when he's to be a rental and get something decent back for him if they decide to do so. For now though they've pretty much have depleted the prospect depth in their organization. They have no 1st or 2nd this year as well. Boston is kind of doing the same. Both aging teams trying to keep their respective windows open.

Any case I don't like Pittsburgh and I like this deal because it says to me in 2/3/4 years the Rangers are going to be a team that's up and Pittsburgh is going to be one that's down. We've learned the hard way that you have to keep quality young players coming into your team year after year if you want sustained success. When you're always trading top picks and prospects eventually you choke off your own talent.

Agreed, when we are competing in 2 or 3 seasons it's likely that the perennial contenders like Pitt and Wash will be on the way down. Hopefully neither the Isles nor Devils will become a powerhouse in that time.

 

[Fireonk]

Wasn't Addison considered by and large their BEST prospect? A team's best prospect, a 1st, and a talented reclamation project for an oft-injured solid 2nd line C with term sets up well for an auction of the only 1st line, playoff-tested wing on the market, IMO. Especially if the Rangers retain, which they almost certainly will.

We shall see.

Addison still isn't an A level prospect (in my opinion) just because he is the best one they got. Their farm system is terrible. For good reason, but terrible nonetheless.

At this point obviously the Pens aren't concerned with the future, they are going to maximize their Crosby/Malkin window and then hope to be gifted a superstud again in a few years...

 

[Edge]

Totally agree. Again, I think they are definitely going to move him in the next few weeks and the only chance of him staying will mean he's willing to take less here than he'd get on the open market. Not great odds.

I said it half-joking, but it really is the truth, if Kreider somehow agreed to 6x6, there should be no one who doubts his love for this organization. Because if he did something like that, IMO, it would be the epitome of going all-in on this team.

Now, having said that, I can't expect that from him, nor can I blame him if he sticks to his guns and demands 7x7.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Addison still isn't an A level prospect (in my opinion) just because he is the best one they got. Their farm system is terrible. For good reason, but terrible nonetheless.

At this point obviously the Pens aren't concerned with the future, they are going to maximize their Crosby/Malkin window and then hope to be gifted a superstud again in a few years...

I like Addison a ton but he would be a prospect in the middle of our top 10.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I said it half-joking, but it really is the truth, if Kreider somehow agreed to 6x6, there should be no one who doubts his love for this organization. Because if he did something like that, IMO, it would be the epitome of going all-in on this team.

Now, having said that, I can't expect that from him, nor can I blame him if he sticks to his guns and demands 7x7.

True, it easy for me to sit here and say "you're going to make over 60m playing hockey in your career, do you really need an extra 7m?"

 

[RGY]

Tough time for an injury for Edmonton.

Strome to COL

Buch to EDM

 

[I Eat Crow]

Tough time for an injury for Edmonton.

Strome to COL

Buch to EDM

McDavid is out 2-3 weeks..

 

[NYR Viper]

Buch to Edmonton has made sense since the off-season. He would fit what they need as far as a support top-6 player who shouldn't break the bank as a RFA this off-season.

The Rangers can retain on him for this season as his contract is up at the end of the year which will help them fit him in. Long term they have the space to fit him.

 

[Fireonk]

I like Addison a ton but he would be a prospect in the middle of our top 10.

I agree, I like him as well, maybe not as much as others, but on a good prospect pool he isn't something you would take much note of. Think him and Jones probably duke it out for 7th on our list in the Winter polls we just had.

 

[GAGLine]

I'm just asking what the plan is after you trade him. All you guys are so gung-ho about moving him, what comes after? I've seen people say Kravtsov can play LW, does he get the spot next year? Kakko? Do they want to be competitive next year? Do they want to try and win while Panarin is in his prime? Who do they have targeted to replace him? Like, if Morgan Barron projected to be Kreider's replacement, awesome. But at some point, you need to identify the players you want to go to war with. I'm not saying every piece is here, but you can't keep trading important pieces away because some mystery player might come available in two seasons. I keep saying it, fix what isn't working but don't ruin what is.

What are we getting back in trade for Kreider? What other deals are we making? Who are we drafting? If we end up with the 1st overall pick, how worried are you going to be about losing Kreider? Of course that's a long shot, but we shouldn't let fear of not having a replacement force us into making a bad decision. If Kreider is looking for the Hayes deal, then re-signing him would be a bad decision.

How do you fix what isn't working without trading anything of value?

 

[RGY]

McDavid is out 2-3 weeks..

And thats a pretty crucial amount of time at this juncture of the season.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

What are we getting back in trade for Kreider? What other deals are we making? Who are we drafting? If we end up with the 1st overall pick, how worried are you going to be about losing Kreider? Of course that's a long shot, but we shouldn't let fear of not having a replacement force us into making a bad decision. If Kreider is looking for the Hayes deal, then re-signing him would be a bad decision.

How do you fix what isn't working without trading anything of value?

I'm going under the assumption they will be getting a late first and B prospect in the trade. I don't see how they end up with the 1OA pick, but ok. I guess that's a plan? I assume whoever they take with their own pick will be at least three years away from contributing.

It's not about fear, it's about figuring out what this team looks like in a year or two when they should be challenging for the playoffs. Funny, everyone says you have to trade him but no one really knows how they're going to replace him other than, let's be really bad and try and get a top 5 pick.

 

[Zibanejbread]

Buch to Edmonton has made sense since the off-season. He would fit what they need as far as a support top-6 player who shouldn't break the bank as a RFA this off-season.

The Rangers can retain on him for this season as his contract is up at the end of the year which will help them fit him in. Long term they have the space to fit him.

Buch is signed for another year after this one...

 

[Thirty One]

Buch to Edmonton has made sense since the off-season. He would fit what they need as far as a support top-6 player who shouldn't break the bank as a RFA this off-season.

The Rangers can retain on him for this season as his contract is up at the end of the year which will help them fit him in. Long term they have the space to fit him.

He's signed through next season.

 

[Off Sides]

I'm just asking what the plan is after you trade him. All you guys are so gung-ho about moving him, what comes after? I've seen people say Kravtsov can play LW, does he get the spot next year? Kakko? Do they want to be competitive next year? Do they want to try and win while Panarin is in his prime? Who do they have targeted to replace him? Like, if Morgan Barron projected to be Kreider's replacement, awesome. But at some point, you need to identify the players you want to go to war with. I'm not saying every piece is here, but you can't keep trading important pieces away because some mystery player might come available in two seasons. I keep saying it, fix what isn't working but don't ruin what is.

I'm not sure they are prepared to go to war.

My take, this Ranger season is much like when Devils had Hall scoring like an MVP for them.

Panarin gives the illusion the Rangers are somewhat decent, are about ready to take the next step, yet really Panarin is the only thing separating them from being really bad.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I'm not sure they are prepared to go to war.

My take, this Ranger season is much like when Devils had Hall scoring like an MVP for them.

Panarin gives the illusion the Rangers are somewhat decent, are about ready to take the next step, yet really Panarin is the only thing separating them from being really bad.

That's a nice story, but that's not really true. Panarin, Zib, Kreider, Fox, Dangelo, Trouba, Lindgren, the goalies, Strome, they're all contributing and playing really well. And they're one of the youngest teams in the league. And if what you're saying is true, then blow the whole damn thing up, because one player at the draft next year isn't making a difference.

 

[Fitzy]

I would want Yamamoto for Buchnevich and I don't see any way the oilers do that.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm not sure they are prepared to go to war.

My take, this Ranger season is much like when Devils had Hall scoring like an MVP for them.

Panarin gives the illusion the Rangers are somewhat decent, are about ready to take the next step, yet really Panarin is the only thing separating them from being really bad.

Nah that Devils team was legitimately mediocre/below average. They were carried by a hot start and then Hall later on. They barely got in and were a sub .500 team for the last 60 games of the season.

This group has gotten better as the year has gone on and it hasn't been just Panarin. Hes been a big part of it, but thats really doing a disservice to some of the other guys having great years (DeAngelo, Fox, Zibanejad) and others who have played pretty well (Strome,Lindgren, Chytil, Fast)

They still shouldn't be extending Kreider at the expense of DeAngelo, which I'm 90% sure it would go that way if Kreider were to be kept.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Oilers have pretty much nothing that interests me for Buch

at least nothing realistic

 

[DutchShamrock]

In fairness, but not a total defense of the response, I think the perceived condescension is directly tied to the vaulted status he has received in recent weeks that stands in stark contrast the majority conversations over the last 5 or 6 years.

I think Kreider could be a path to reaching a desired outcome for this team. I'm not as convinced he is the path to that outcome. And I definitely think the...sales pitch, or whatever we want to call it, surrounding the desire to keep Kreider has kind of taken on a life of its own.

But that's always been the Kreider conversations on here. Some people would you have think he's a second liner who isn't worth much, and others would you have believe he is outstanding piece that we would struggle to live without. And the truth is probably in the middle --- which is seldom good enough for a lot of people. You're either a believer, or a heretic.

I wonder what the perception would be right now if Kreider's production this season was flipped, hot start followed by a dry spell. He would be run out the door, but it's not a new story for him. Same production year to year with hot and cold spells. People went from enshrining Zuccarello to kicking him in the pants on the way out because he had a bad run.

I feel there is a bit of a hesitancy building up because Kreider is on one of his tears. He will no doubt present this recent production to management if they decide to settle. So we end up paying for the .9 ppg player that will no doubt settle back into his .55 ppg pace.

And I really like your comment about them maybe getting too cute with the rebuild. There is a very natural path to just deal the UFAs now and test the market on our goalie and RFAs in the summer. I like the idea of using cap space as a weapon this summer. I loathe the possibility of being backed into a corner and trading from weakness, or buying out players to scrounge up a $1m to field a sub-mediocre roster.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Nah that Devils team was legitimately mediocre/below average. They were carried by a hot start and then Hall later on. They barely got in and were a sub .500 team for the last 60 games of the season.

This group has gotten better as the year has gone on and it hasn't been just Panarin. Hes been a big part of it, but thats really doing a disservice to some of the other guys having great years (DeAngelo, Fox, Zibanejad) and others who have played pretty well (Strome,Lindgren, Chytil, Fast)

They still shouldn't be extending Kreider at the expense of DeAngelo, which I'm 90% sure it would go that way if Kreider were to be kept.

I'm not advocating for trading DeAngelo, at all. I want him and Kreider here. But what if a DeAngelo trade gets you more than Kreider would? Better pick, better player. Reports indicate Lindqvist isn't that far off, Trouba isn't going anywhere and Fox is only going to get better. Do you deal from a position of strength rather than an area where you're weakest at?

 

[Off Sides]

That's a nice story, but that's not really true. Panarin, Zib, Kreider, Fox, Dangelo, Trouba, Lindgren, the goalies, Strome, they're all contributing and playing really well. And they're one of the youngest teams in the league. And if what you're saying is true, then blow the whole damn thing up, because one player at the draft next year isn't making a difference.

They have been blowing it up, they may still do more of that this deadline.

For all the contributions those players have made, they are still not very high in the standings, where do you think they would be without Panarin?