Speculation: Roster Building Thread 2019-20: Part XXVIII

[MrPodz]

I cannot wait for the tdl to come and the kreider/buch/skjei/tony d/ georgie controversy to carry over to the summer. Yes kreider will be hard to replace, happens when u have a good player, but for all his intangibles, power forwards just do not age well. Its a matter of fact, need i mention milan lucic? Kreider is in great shape, yea, but he is not an elite sniper, he scores using speed and body. His tip ins will be missed but we most def can replace him. Expect us to trade in summer to replace. This is the last time we say we are building and not trying to actively do everything to make the playoffs. Next season do not expect a sell off.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Who in the system is going to put up 60 points a year? You do realize that DeAngelo is on pace to eclipse Kreider's best offensive output right? I realize we've got good RHD on the team and in the system, but until one of them puts up the output that DeAngelo has, I'm going to assume that they can't do it (FWIW, I think Fox will.)

DeAngelo has been consistent from the beginning of the season, really over the last calendar year. Kreider's come on over the last month and a half but do you remember how listless and useless he was for the first 25 games?

I don't think Kreider is holding anyone over a barrel asking for 7 a year. I think its fair with where the market is and the going rate for top 6 forwards is 6-7 million. But when it comes to ROI, I'd feel much, much more confident in DeAngelo than I would in Kreider. DeAngelo would bring back more in a deal for sure, but thats all the more reason to keep him unless of course, a Martin Necas level player is coming back straight up.

I don't think it's fair to ask Fox to do in his first season what DeAngelo is doing in his 4th. Or Lindqvist. It's a gamble, for sure. Again, I want to keep both but the question was, if you're looking to maximize the return and if you're factoring in what you already have here and in the system with how much you want to invest in the right side of your defense (like factoring in how much you want tied up in two left wings) does it make sense to trade DeAngelo instead of Kreider. But I think I know where you stand, lol.

 

[Fireonk]

The clamoring for Newhook got me thinking. With Kadri out for a little bit I wonder if there is something around Kreider and Strome for Newhook, Jost, and a 2nd as the main pieces.

 

[True Blue]

Newhook or GTFO.

Sorry, Colorado.

That is a non-starter for Sakic. He is not "all-in"

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

The clamoring for Newhook got me thinking. With Kadri out for a little bit I wonder if there is something around Kreider and Strome for Newhook, Jost, and a 2nd as the main pieces.

I really don't see Newhook being traded ever. Sakic is a tight wad and I really think they see him as their long-term 2C. The problem with Kreider is lots of playoff teams want him but these teams, because of how good they are, have only 1-2 really premium prospects they they don't want to give up, and we're left with late 1sts and b-level prospects. I think that's the best we can hope for.

 

[True Blue]

The Rangers have two, maybe three, players in the system right now that seem more capable of replacing what Deangelo does than they have forwards who can replace what Kreider does.

Trying.....very......hard.....not......to.........melt......down.

WHO is there in the system that is capable of replacing what DeAngelo does? The kid has been trending to 55-60 points for over a year now. This type of an offensive weapon has not been seen on Broadway since the days of Leetch or Zubov. How many years has that been? If you look at the last 10 years, only between 5-10 defensemen in the entire NHL hit that amount per year. And of those 5-10 defensemen, at least 5 of them are always the same names. Which should put into context of just how rare that is.

And now, not only do the Rangers actually have one that is doing it, but there are suddenly 2, maybe 3 players in the system that can do it as well? To review, it has not been seen around these parts in something like 25 years, and in the last 10 years alone, 5-10 players hit that amount, and mostly the names are pretty much the same every time. And it is expected that the Rangers have now struck the mother load and have 3-4 such players between on the team and in the entire system? Come on. The chances of one of players being able to produce the way that DeAngelo is producing offensively is extremely slim, let alone 2 or 3 of them.

 

[Fireonk]

I really don't see Newhook being traded ever. Sakic is a tight wad and I really think they see him as their long-term 2C. The problem with Kreider is lots of playoff teams want him but these teams, because of how good they are, have only 1-2 really premium prospects they they don't want to give up, and we're left with late 1sts and b-level prospects. I think that's the best we can hope for.

I don't disagree. Think it's at least closer than the Newhook for Kreider straight up deal that is being wished for.

 

[Off Sides]

Where do I think they'd be without the guy they just paid $11m a year to do what he's been doing? Worse, I think they'd be worse. But that doesn't negate the contributions a whole bunch of other players have been making. I think they're in much better shape this year than they were at the exact same time last year. And I expect them to be even better next this time next year.

It does not negate the contributions, yet those contributions would not be seen as favorably if the team was nearer to the bottom of the standings, in the same place they were last year or lower, worse.

If the team's improvement from last year is largely attached to the addition of Panarin, what does that really say about the rest of the teams ability to go to war?


This is all part of why I never really understood them adding Panarin last off-season, the timing was always going to be him ~9-10 years older than Kakko. It was always going to be a strange build where part of the focus was going to be around Panarin/Zbad and part of it around those who are 6-10 years younger than they are. At some point the only way to reconcile those two different timelines is going to be for them to trade some youth away to gain players closer in age to Panarin. If that is the plan, I'm not sure how they ever figured it would all fit into their cap. I think it was a sort of game theory fail to be honest yet I guess we'll see what they do once/if they can clean up their cap structure.

 

[True Blue]

The clamoring for Newhook got me thinking. With Kadri out for a little bit I wonder if there is something around Kreider and Strome for Newhook, Jost, and a 2nd as the main pieces.

Please, just forget it. There is no getting Newhook. Not for what the Raners are trading. There is no getting Studinka (I realize you did not bring his name up).

 

[RangersFan1994]

Michael isn't an NHL player.

neither was Lias Andersson or Michael Haley but never stopped NYR from playing them

 

[gravey9]

I really don't see Newhook being traded ever. Sakic is a tight wad and I really think they see him as their long-term 2C. The problem with Kreider is lots of playoff teams want him but these teams, because of how good they are, have only 1-2 really premium prospects they they don't want to give up, and we're left with late 1sts and b-level prospects. I think that's the best we can hope for.

I am not convinced Kadri being out makes a trade for Kreider more likely. It may make it less likely. Kadri is a top 9 center. They may wish to get more depth down the middle. I just don't trust that Sakic will be less stingy because of this injury. I don't get the sense he's feeling pressure to win the cup this year.

Blues and Bruins and Caps are the teams that seem to be up against their cup contention windows. Maybe the Rangers can use the Avs to up other offers, but i feel like Gorton already knows the likely return for Kreider from any teams that are truly serious. He's just going to wait to see if he can make them a touch sweeter at the deadline. I doubt the Avs are one of those teams Gorton is focused on.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Trying.....very......hard.....not......to.........melt......down.

WHO is there in the system that is capable of replacing what DeAngelo does? The kid has been trending to 55-60 points for over a year now. This type of an offensive weapon has not been seen on Broadway since the days of Leetch or Zubov. How many years has that been? If you look at the last 10 years, only between 5-10 defensemen in the entire NHL hit that amount per year. And of those 5-10 defensemen, at least 5 of them are always the same names. Which should put into context of just how rare that is.

And now, not only do the Rangers actually have one that is doing it, but there are suddenly 2, maybe 3 players in the system that can do it as well? To review, it has not been seen around these parts in something like 25 years, and in the last 10 years alone, 5-10 players hit that amount, and mostly the names are pretty much the same every time. And it is expected that the Rangers have now struck the mother load and have 3-4 such players between on the team and in the entire system? Come on. The chances of one of players being able to produce the way that DeAngelo is producing offensively is extremely slim, let alone 2 or 3 of them.

I really don't think they should trade him. Not at all. But I'd say while maybe they won't hit 60 points you do have players like Fox, Lindqvist and maybe even Keane that can replace or project to replace some of what you'd lose if you traded him for a haul. And pointing out that the same reasons (except for age) that people have for wanting to trade Kreider can be applied to trading DeAngelo. But again, I'd love to keep both players.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

It does not negate the contributions, yet those contributions would not be seen as favorably if the team was nearer to the bottom of the standings, in the same place they were last year or lower, worse.

If the team's improvement from last year is largely attached to the addition of Panarin, what does that really say about the rest of the teams ability to go to war?


This is all part of why I never really understood them adding Panarin last off-season, the timing was always going to be him ~9-10 years older than Kakko. It was always going to be a strange build where part of the focus was going to be around Panarin/Zbad and part of it around those who are 6-10 years younger than they are. At some point the only way to reconcile those two different timelines is going to be for them to trade some youth away to gain players closer in age to Panarin. If that is the plan, I'm not sure how they ever figured it would all fit into their cap. I think it was a sort of game theory fail to be honest yet I guess we'll see what they do once/if they can clean up their cap structure.

I wasn't big on the idea of signing him last summer but they did and he's here. They should try and win soon. That doesn't mean throwing bad money at aging guys or big ticket UFAs but they need identify some key vets and hope the young players keep progressing.

They signed Panarin to be "the guy" and so far he's been every bit of it. How much worse would they be without him? I have no idea. Would they be the worst team in the league? I don't believe so. But do you really think the Islanders are 12 points better than them? Or even Columbus? I don't think they're as far off as some do or they're a mess without Panarin. Tighten up the left side a bit, give Chytil and Kakko, Lindgren and Fox another offseason and they'll be noticeably better next year.

 

[gravey9]

To change the discussion for a moment. If I'm the Gorton, I'm not moving any of the Rangers D (outside of Staal or Smith) until Shesterkin's taken over the #1 role for good.

The D numbers team-wide are likely to improve under Shesterkin. The way he handles the puck and does a better job controlling rebounds than Geo and Hank seems like it will translate to less chaos in the D zone. And that in turn likely raises the perceived value of all our young D. Actually it could also just flat out help their development. Imagine how much more we can get for ADA if he's not getting exposed very often over the course of 50-80 games. Everyone will talk about how he's finally taken the last step to being a complete defenseman. Skjei's 1 major gaffe per game might be more hidden.

Our organizational depth is at D and in net. We need to maximize the value of those positions first before we start trading to complete the rebuild. And to me, a major component of making that happen is Shesty becoming the #1.

That said, I almost wish Shesty was a year younger because I have this bad feeling he's going to go on a run here and push us out of the top 10 in the 2020 draft.

 

[True Blue]

I really don't think they should trade him. Not at all. But I'd say while maybe they won't hit 60 points you do have players like Fox, Lindqvist and maybe even Keane that can replace or project to replace some of what you'd lose if you traded him for a haul. And pointing out that the same reasons (except for age) that people have for wanting to trade Kreider can be applied to trading DeAngelo. But again, I'd love to keep both players.

Replacing some is not nearly replacing. If DeAngelo hits 60 points and is moved and Keane is in the lineup and hits 30, that's not replacing it. Any player you insert into his spot will techinically replace some of the production, even if they score only a single point. That is not quite the same thing as having a 55-60 point scoring defense man. And having a bunch of players get to the point totals is not the same thing either. It is like saying that you have a top line wing who scored 30 goals but if you trade him and them have 3 other wings that score 10, that somehow replaces what he did.

Once again, look at how few names it has been in the last decade that have done it Look at how many decades it has been since there has been a Ranger that has done it. These are the type of players you build around, not trade.

Today, if I am making a choice between Kreider and DeAngelo, the latter wins. And I want to find a way to keep Kreider. But today it is not even close.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The disappointment in this place is going to be off the charts. Somehow the expectations are growing more ridiculous than last season.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Please, just forget it. There is no getting Newhook. Not for what the Raners are trading. There is no getting Studinka (I realize you did not bring his name up).

people are gonna convince themselves we’re trading for Newhook, then they’re gonna wanna lynch Gorton when the return doesn’t match their fantasies.

 

[haohmaru]

neither was Lias Andersson or Michael Haley but never stopped NYR from playing them

270 career games, four teams, two of them twice, "not an NHL player"

 

[haohmaru]

All off this trading ADA talk just has me scratching my head. Let's trade Zibanejad, too, then, because some of you clearly believe we don't deserve a true 1C or a 50+ point defenseman.

 

[True Blue]

people are gonna convince themselves we’re trading for Newhook, then they’re gonna wanna lynch Gorton when the return doesn’t match their fantasies.

Sounds about right. Should be another fun afternoon and aftermath.

 

[Gardner McKay]

people are gonna convince themselves we’re trading for Newhook, then they’re gonna wanna lynch Gorton when the return doesn’t match their fantasies.

This. 100000000% this.

 

[mas0764]

Marleau
Age 33 70 pts
Age 34 57 pts
Age 35 48 pts

~31-32% decline in production from age 33 to 35

Prorate to a 33 year old starting at 50 pts
50 pts
41 pts
34 pts

(if said player is still at 50 pts at age 33)

Unaddressed so far in this debate isn't just if he's gonna maintain his production.... it's that his production is going to be dwarfed by Kakko, Panarin, Chytil, Kravtsov, and maybe another pick or two of ours by then. It's not about whether Kreider can maintain his 50 point production level (which is very, very arguable as first line production given today's scoring averages).

It's just as much, if not more, a question of "where does 32 year old Chris Kreider fit on this team?"

In 2-3 years, Kreider is competing for ice time with 21 year old Kaapo Kakko, 22 year old Vitaly Kravtsov, 30 year old Artemi Panarin, 23 year old Filip Chytil, 29 year old Mika Zibanejad, and maybe another young stud forward or two (say, Lundell or Zary from this year, plus maybe if we move a defenseman for a top-6 forward, ie, say Lundkvist is eventually moved for a Kyrou-type return).

Where the hell is Kreider playing? He's gonna be our $6.5m a year third line left winger?

Diminishing returns.

Yes, Kreider is unique, and he'd be very valuable to this team while it rebuilds, right up until the point he gets buried on the depth chart by all the better players.

That time frame is not a question of 33 versus 35 years old. That probably becomes an issue as soon as 2 years from now if he loses even a half step and if our young kids develop.

And I'm not even counting if we keep Buchnevich in all this. Where does Kreider play?

People keep saying "These kids are young, who knows if they are gonna pan out," but you have to PROJECT based on reasonable data. Of course we don't know, but the reasonable indications are, Kravtsov and Kakko and Panarin will all probably be better in 2 years than Kreider, and whoever our first rounder is this year has a good shot at being better or equal (and cheaper) in 2-3 years as well.

Advocating for Kreider is a no-brainer if the only question was the next 3 years. But it's not. The albatross he might be in years 4-7 is not worth it just to have him here as a plus second liner the next 3 years. We have enough talent that we won't be an als0-ran.

Having said all that, IF Kreider could be traded and bring back 2 cost-controlled, CHEAP future pieces, then that helps alleviate the cap situation if he has a big contract, because he has brought back two cheap labor pieces to play along side him, and I could live with re-signing him this summer. As long as we ALSO get the trade chips from a deadline trade first.

But signing him outright without trading him is insanity to me. And if it's not possible to trade and then re-sign him (which I don't understand why it would be impossible), then oh well, I guess I'll miss him.

 

[EpicDing]

people are gonna convince themselves we’re trading for Newhook, then they’re gonna wanna lynch Gorton when the return doesn’t match their fantasies.

I'ts happened both of the last two years with Zucc and McDonagh, and it will continue this year. That's HF for you

 

[JimmyG89]

Can we sticky that guys like Newhook will not be moved for rentals?

You want Newhook in a deal with the Avalanche, expect to be asked for Zibanejad in return.

 

[True Blue]

All off this trading ADA talk just has me scratching my head. Let's trade Zibanejad, too, then, because some of you clearly believe we don't deserve a true 1C or a 50+ point defenseman.

Why stop there? Trade Shestyrkin as well. After all, Wall is coming soon. And let's ship out Fox as well because oh, that long jam when Keane is ready.